And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

Not playing much since the WSOP, and feeling rusty and bad. (worse than my normal bad)

Comments on every street please (include "misplayed on every street [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Full Tilt $150

My stack 3000, BB 2600

BB= 30

Very early, no reads.

Folded to me on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so I raise it up to 90 to go,......standard.....BB calls

Flop (195) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks.

In this spot I usually bet as a lot of worse hands call etc, and usually fold to a reasonable raise since if ahead, I'm not ahead by very much.

If my cbet is called I try to get to the river cheap and maybe call a river bet depending on the board.

Here I thought there was a good chance I had best hand (which probably means a bet), and while vulnerable, I didn't want to fold to a c/r as I am 50/50 against a lot of hands he c/r's.

Maybe I'm jumping at shadows since a c/r is more likely when shallower than this....correct?

So I figure I'll check back the flop to look for a blank and put more money in there if as my equity should be better on most turns. A bonus of this is getting a bluff lead from a hand that folds to a c-bet.

Is my head up my ass with all this or not?

back to the hand....

BB checks, I check

Turn (195) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB leads 150, I raise to 450 to go, BB calls

I think my raise here might be wrong. Initially my thoughts are to get value from Ax X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but now that my hand can improve to a boat, should I be calling here? I'm probably folding to jam over my raise since I think the majority of hands he does this with are ahead of me......does he jam here with Ax X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] enough to worry about this?

River (1095) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks....

Hero?

Thanks,
Woodguy

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

He's not going to jam with AxXh on the turn, I like the raise. I think the river is a check; trying to bluff the Jh or Qh here is going to be a losing proposition without an overbet shove.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

Does the BB defend his blinds at all? You were in a steal position so he doesn't need much of a hand to play. On the flop bet 2/3 of the pot with your vunerable and possibly second best hand. If he raises fold.

The raise on the turn isn't bad but i would fold or call and see what happens on the river. If he stops he may have been representing a flush. If he bets he probably has it. When he calls your re-raise i'd give him credit for a flush.

River: Check. Better hands call, worse hands fold.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

i like the flop check since I don't want to get c/r off the bet hand, and often when you check back flop they fire 2 street with most of their range. Turn raise is solid, but as Bakes said, river is a def check. I figure you win about 50% of the time here and no use trying to make a random fold a flush if he has one.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's not going to jam with AxXh on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Hmmmmm, if we were villian, should we then, since better hands fold?

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does the BB defend his blinds at all? You were in a steal position so he doesn't need much of a hand to play

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is part of the reason I checked the flop, to get a bluff, although checking this flop can be view as strong because its a very A+ cbet spot. (I think)

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
no use trying to make a random fold a flush if he has one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which flushes do you think lead the river, and which check call?

Results: *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by woodguy

Re: Results:
 

Why post results so soon?

Anyhow, I like a flop bet. I feel that on this flop, you aren't getting semibluffed that often even by hearts. On this type of flops, people are way more likely to c/c a heart draw cause they feel they don't have much FE over your range once you bet a dangerous board (even the donks sense it). There's plenty of value to be had and you don't want to give gutshots or like pair+gs's a free draw, not to mention flush draws (not to mention that you dislike 1/2 the deck on the turn). Once you check the flop, I like the turn raise, as you can get value from worse aces and protect against draws, and people never 3-bet bluff/semibluff there, so it's an easy muck. As far as getting blown off the hand, it's not a big deal, since it's a 4 outer, however if you had just turned a set sixes for example, i'd be more likely to just flat cause getting blown off your hand is decidedly worse w/ 10 outs. As played, no point in bluffing here, as your hand has enough showdown value and enough of your oppt's range is one heart that is c/c-ing to make checking better than bluffing (though betting 1k might be optimal vs. some oppts).

Re: Results:
 

[ QUOTE ]

Why post results so soon?

[/ QUOTE ]

O.K. deleted.

Thread wasn't getting much action, thought I close it.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

wow i really hate the turn raise, calling is kinda ok. what Ax is gonna call the turn? i dont get it. on that board villian has a monster draw or a made hand that has you crushed. that turn lead is scary and i would be looking to shut down without a miracle 6 on the river.

flop check is good, turn is spew.

oh, and check behind river, as you beat nothing that is calling a bet.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]

oh, and check behind river, as you beat nothing that is calling a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about betting to bluff?

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not going to jam with AxXh on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Hmmmmm, if we were villian, should we then, since better hands fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

hell yes, I'd jam AxQh, AxJh here in a heartbeat, maybe Ax9H too

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

Thanks for deleting the results - I think this is a pretty typical early MTT ughh spot.

I understand your pf line, but I still don't get not betting the flop in position. My reason for betting would be to take it down now, say a bet of ~150 into 195. If villian calls, then he almost certainly has some form of draw. If he c/r, I can get away w/o much concern of folding the best hand. How can you tell a turn bet is a bluff lead? It would have to be a serious blank on the turn, right? I guess I don't see taking the pot on the flop as the worst outcome of this hand.

If he calls the flop and checks the turn, I prolly lead a smallish bet, but Aces up isn't much better than where we were on the flop as half the draws just got there.

As played, I check behind on the river. We are only beating Ax and a busted str8 draw and possibly a K, but I can't see a K calling almost any turn bet.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not going to jam with AxXh on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Hmmmmm, if we were villian, should we then, since better hands fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

hell yes, I'd jam AxQh, AxJh here in a heartbeat, maybe Ax9H too

[/ QUOTE ]

thats a pretty terrible line w/ all of those hands.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

If the flop was like A33 the check might be reasonable but here I think a bet is significantly better than a check. I like the turn, I'd just check the river.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
How can you tell a turn bet is a bluff lead?

[/ QUOTE ]

It will be a bluff a certain percentage of the time, no way to really tell, but checking behind can induce a bluff against certain players, especially when I check a dangerous board like this.

I check behind flops and raise turn leads both with and without hands, but usually don't check this flop (which is one of the reasons I posted it)

[ QUOTE ]
As played, I check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are in the BB spot, which hands are you leading on the river, which are you c/c and which are you c/f?

Thanks

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop was like A33 the check might be reasonable but here I think a bet is significantly better than a check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

Woodguy wants to bluff river not vtown, peeps.


To the people who don't get when it would be correct:

If woodguy bets pot, he's giving himself 1 to 1 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs to bluff 1 better hand* for 1 better hand that calls.

If he bets 3/4 pot, he's giving himself 4 to 3 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs 3 better hands* to fold for every 4 better hands that call.

If he bets 2/3 pot, he's giving himself 3 to 2 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs 2 better hands* to fold for every 3 better hands that call.

If he bets 1/2 pot, he's giving himself 2 to 1 for a bluff to succeed, or he needs 1 better hand* to fold for every 2 better hands that call.

*or more

For example, if woodguy felt that of the hands that beat A6, villain could have 3 combos of TT, 1 combo of 66, 9 combos of AT, 3 combos of AK (perhaps you discounted 3 of the possible 6 combos because villain elected to call preflop instead of reraise), and 8 other combos of hands that contain heart.

Then there's 25 total combos of hands.

You may assume that if you bet pot, villain will only c/c if he has a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but fold everything else. Then, along w/ the 8 other combos that hold a single heart, one of villain's hands is AxK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 9 combos.

If you bet pot, your opponent will fold 16 combos and call 9 combos, making a bluff profitable.

Note: I am not saying the above range/assumptions are correct, I just used them to illustrate the math behind a bluff.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]

Woodguy wants to bluff river not vtown, peeps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.

I just want to know what people think his range of hands are that call the turn raise and:

1) Check call a river
2) Check fold the river

Him calling the turn raise and checking the river confused me, so I'm looking for ranges. (was also looking for comments on flop & turn, but we seem to be at the river now)

Thanks for helping with the clarity Mike

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

oh, and check behind river, as you beat nothing that is calling a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about betting to bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

A bluff looks more believable if you didn't raise the turn, IMO.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

Kramer,

Why? He checked a 2 heart flop and raised the 3rd heart turn?

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

The check on the flop with a 2 flush on a BU vs BB already doesn't look much like a FD, first of all. So given he is representing a lone heart on the river, I don't think he'd raise with it on the turn.

Re: Results:
 

I'd usually bet flop, call turn, check river.

Don't think we get checkraised on that flop too often...more likely check called, which isn't such a big deal. If we do get checkraised I don't mind folding at all.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

I don't see why he couldn't check behind hands that are purely a flush draw. This board could easily hit something the BB calls with.

But assuming you're right, what hands do a check/raise on the turn look like? And how much credit are you giving this guy?
If our opponent is smart enough to decide Woodguy has to bet 2 hearts on the flop, then he narrows him down to what on the turn?

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

10 points for the hauntingly eloquent title.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How can you tell a turn bet is a bluff lead?

[/ QUOTE ]

It will be a bluff a certain percentage of the time, no way to really tell, but checking behind can induce a bluff against certain players, especially when I check a dangerous board like this.

I check behind flops and raise turn leads both with and without hands, but usually don't check this flop (which is one of the reasons I posted it)

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have been more detailed in my question - isn't it WAY too early to be guessing at a bluff lead here? I agree that after sitting at the table for awhile you can, but here? I think its a tad FPS this early.

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
As played, I check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are in the BB spot, which hands are you leading on the river, which are you c/c and which are you c/f?

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm squarely in the small ball court here unless I hold the nut flush or better. The line by both players doesn't suggest strength, so if BB is strong, he isn't likely to get paid off. I might block with a str8 - less than that, I'm check/calling or check folding.

Re: And if we\'re lost, we are lost together....
 

[ QUOTE ]
I might block with a str8 - less than that, I'm check/calling or check folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Which hands do you c/c and which do you c/f?

Actual Results
 

I check behind on the river and he shows T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

After the hand I thought there were legitimate questions about all streets except PF so I thought I'd post it.

I still don't know what a range is that calls my turn raise and then check/folds the river, but I think its probably not wide enough to make a 1/3 pot bet profitable, but again, I'm not sure.

Cocktails?

Re: Actual Results
 

If we bet the flop and get c/r what do people do from there? Say we bet 160 and get c/r to 440 or so which is reasonable, I really think continuing sucks.

Re: Actual Results
 

now TT, theres a hand he should be 3betting the turn with!

Re: Actual Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
now TT, theres a hand he should be 3betting the turn with!

[/ QUOTE ]

No question. Maybe my check behind and raise made him think I had it and he called to see if he boated up on the turn?