Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

10/20 live

everyone is horrible. they also think i'm a crazy LAG. villain is tight/semi-passive. he's sort of pissed at me because i've been raising his blind alot(not stealing, just good starting hands).

villain raises in EP, 2 coldcallers, i call on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], sb calls, bb calls.

Flop(12sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

villain leads, 2 calls, i raise, sb and bb drop, villain 3bets, 2 folds, i 4bet, villain 5 bets...it's HU and there's no cap. how many do we go here?

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

You'll hit your flush or straight 54% of the time by the river, so presumably you'd be willing to go all-in. There's some chance he has a bigger FD or has a set and hits a boat; There's also some (increasingly unlikely) chance that you spike a J and bet his T. All of these possilibities aside, it looks like you have a neutral to marginally +EV situation. I'd probably stop once you are heads up.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

btw, if it matters i have villain covered. he has around 400.00 left.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

We may hit our flush or straight 54% of the time, but we're not 54% to win if villain flopped a set with pocket tens or pocket eights. Assuming villain only 5-bets the flop with one of these hands (most likely pocket tens as we look like we're representing a set right now and villain raised preflop), we're only 40% to win so we should call and hit an offsuit seven on the turn and then go to town.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Really looks like villian (tight, raised in early position and has five bet a drawy board) has an overpair, or maybe a set. We're basically a wash against that range TT+,88. If villian has a bigger flush draw we're dominated AKc, AQc, KQc, but it seems unlikely that the semi passive guy would go to war with one of those holdings. I'd say throw in another raise if you think there is any chance he'll call and check the turn (is AT in his range here?), otherwise just call the fifth bet.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

I'd go for the 6th bet because of your image here.

I don't think the responses have given that enough consideration.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go for the 6th bet because of your image here.

I don't think the responses have given that enough consideration.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry what's changed between 4th and 6th bet? All the others folded after villains 3rd bet, so why go to 6th if not all the way?

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Without a third player in the pot, I don't understand why we'd keep pumping it here. Sure we're ahead of a good portion of his range, but I'm not sure it's by enough to make it worth the variance. In addition to trailing TT, you're also behind QQ, even more so when he holds a club.

I'd also tend to value our read on the villain as passive more than saying that they're coming after our LAGgy play. What would you add to his range besides AA-TT, 88 and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] because of our read on their perception of us? AT?

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

if this villian is the type of player i think he is, you should just call the fifth bet cuz he has a set and you aren't a favorate. It doesn't matter what your image is, he doesn't five bet without TT or 88 here.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

I probably call the 5-bet. If I knew he wouldn't 7-bet, I would 6-bet.

I love the idea of jamming the pot (but not all-in) with a huge draw HU in position on the flop any time we have around or even slightly less than a 50% chance to win (or more obv.). It would increase variance but I think it is generally +EV as we would gain turn and river advantages. We gain deception, particularly those times we turn our hand and can continue jamming - it increases our implied odds. Jamming the pot will also gain us the a free card on the turn those times we miss the draw, and get checked to. But these would only be advantages if we have chips left at the turn and river (didn't reraise to the felt at the flop). In addition, I think some people would see jamming flop as a good image play that will get us better action in future hands.

However, when villain takes this to 5 or 7 bets at the flop, I think it becomes pretty clear that we usually have less than a 50% chance to win. Even though we have an image of a LAG, villain is generally semi-passive and a set in his hand looks very likely. He will also very occasionally have a higher FD.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Easy answer:

100,108,882 games 55.328 secs 1,809,371 games/sec

Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.301% 40.30% 00.00% 40345710 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 59.699% 59.70% 00.00% 59764205 0.00 { TdTh }

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

I think we can settle down.

Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.616% 51.62% 00.00% 26797650 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 48.384% 48.38% 00.00% 25119568 0.00 { AcAd }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.254% 56.25% 00.00% 154291495 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 43.746% 43.75% 00.00% 119986134 0.00 { AdAh }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.660% 45.66% 00.00% 33594480 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 54.340% 54.34% 00.00% 39981343 0.00 { QcQd }

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]


I'd go for the 6th bet because of your image here.

I don't think the responses have given that enough consideration.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry what's changed between 4th and 6th bet? All the others folded after villains 3rd bet, so why go to 6th if not all the way?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

What has changed? I think the villain's range has gotten smaller (we are now less likely to win). However, taking it to 6-bets can gain us advantages on turn and river especially if we don't think he will 7-bet flop or donk turn. I reckon we should call, but going to 6-bets doesn't seem too bad to me and agaisnt some I think it would be quite correct especially in an uncapped game with 20 BBs behind us.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

also fwiw, he never has a bigger flush draw here. AK and AQ are drawing hands to him. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

If he has AA, you should be willing to go all in.

If he has AA or TT, you should be willing to go as many bets so that he gets the last bet in on the flop, preserving your implied odds.

Decide for yourself.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

But if he has TT+, 88, you're behind.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
But if he has TT+, 88, you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the read?

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Ah, missed that somehow, thanks. Still, FWIW, you often see players play the same hand from the same position differently because they're feeling lucky or whatever.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

also fwiw, he never has a bigger flush draw here. AK and AQ are drawing hands to him. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That pretty much leaves him with AA,KK, or maybe QQ. This gives you an equity advantage of a few % points. If he has the A,K or Q of clubs in his hand your equity advantage is really tiny. I am all for getting the money in with the most equity but at some point you will have to wonder if he has a set. Just because he limped JJ once doesn't mean he will always limp his big pairs.

Your likely equity advantage is small and it will change dramatically for the worse if you do not get a good turn card. Another bet might get you a free turn card and I would take it. If he 7-bets, I am beginning to worry about a set which would put you at a 60/40 equity disadvantage.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { QdQh }


We're behind QQ even without a club.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Though I doubt this is in his range, I thought this is interesting:

Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.840% 33.84% 00.00% 9846115 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 66.160% 66.16% 00.00% 19250093 0.00 { AcKc }

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { QdQh }


We're behind QQ even without a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I should have run them individually. I see now that QQ is two less outs for James' str8.

Ah, I just noticed that you previously ran these. I need to pay more attention.

Edit: added last comment

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

10/20 live

everyone is horrible. they also think i'm a crazy LAG. villain is tight/semi-passive. he's sort of pissed at me because i've been raising his blind alot(not stealing, just good starting hands).

villain raises in EP, 2 coldcallers, i call on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], sb calls, bb calls.

Flop(12sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

villain leads, 2 calls, i raise, sb and bb drop, villain 3bets, 2 folds, i 4bet, villain 5 bets, i 6 bet planning on just calling 7, villain only calls.

Turn(13bb): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, check.

River(13bb): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bet, i raise.

thoughts? call a 3bet or is this an easy fold?

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

Ahh, I thought the hand was over and didn't realize that you had another decision.

You can't fold to a 3-bet because he will too often think his big pair is good here. Sometimes he makes the mistake of not betting the turn and shows up with the boat but not often enough IMO.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

I fold to a 3-bet with a read. I call the 3-bet without.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

raise. call 3.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

I think checking through the turn and taking the free river card is good obv.

By his flop play, I think he has a set at the flop and a fullhouse at the river much more often than not. So I think the river raise is bad. I would call the river bet with our trips.

Given that you raised the river, if he reraises, with the pot size we only have to be good one time in like 18 for the call to be profitable. I think we should make a crying call. I think it's profitable, especially given your read on him as not always raising solid/good pocket pairs from early.

Re: Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I think the river raise is bad. I would call the river bet with our trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's technically bad if we can't fold to a 3bet. since i planned to, and the flop action is TT, AA, or KK i still have value, IMO. this is especially true given my image. i see what you're saying, but i really felt my hand was best far too often to not put 2BB in on the river.