20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

I'm posting this from memory as I'm at work. I got differing opinions for other people whose games I respect.

About 70 left or so. Blinds are 75/150. This is my first hand at this table, so unfortunately no reads. I have about 3k chips to start the hand, which is slightly below average for the tournament, but not too much.

2 early limpers, CO limps, SB completes and I check the BB with 76c.

Flop (pot = 750): Jc6h5c.

SB checks. Bet or check here? I'll post my decision and then move on to the next part of the hand in a little bit.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

i tend to like these situations and even more so when no on's shown strenght yet...I bet about 500 here and don't mind gambling if reraised

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

Stacks of those involved?

Three-bet shoving is never going to be all that wrong so I think I'd lead, 90% of the time, like 400.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

I'm trying to remember. I know one of the EP limpers had like 1200 behind after limping, and the late limper had me covered. I don't remember what the SB or other EP limper had.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

I'm leading for 400

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

I've been mulling this one over for a few minutes, and here are my thoughts:

Our goal should be to get as much of your stack into the pot as possible on that flop

That being said, leading out creates an interesting issue in the fact that if we are smooth called (which will happen often) and blank the turn, we are then playing pot odds and pot control instead of maximizing EV on our hand... I mean, if we bet the flop and get smooth called, what do we do on a blank turn? It kind of feels, strangely, like we're going to be wasting chips by leading out as I think the % we get smooth called is much higher than the % we get reraised

With no reads at all at the table, I think I'm going to check here, with the intentions of check-raising to 1200 or so

If he calls your check raise, you have the perfect stack size to possible push any turn and sitll have fold equity whereas your opponent *shouldn't* be calling without a big hand

IDK, I feel as if I'm off here, but for some reason I really think checking is better than leading

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

Bet the flop. Can make better hands (right now) fold (like 88) and hands that are behind call (like AJ). Also, we pick up more good outs if we make a bare flush draw fold and are ahead of them if we call.

So yeah. Bet...around 600 or so. If raised, get it all in.

Edit: I know the first sentence doesn't make much sense. What I am trying to say is that 88 might fold to our bet which is fine and that AJ is likely to call, which is also fine. Even though we are favorite over both, we increase our equity in the pot when 88 folds and when AJ calls.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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Bet the flop. Can make better hands (right now) fold (like 88) and hands that are behind call (like AJ). Also, we pick up more good outs if we make a bare flush draw fold and are ahead of them if we call.

So yeah. Bet...around 600 or so. If raised, get it all in.

Edit: I know the first sentence doesn't make much sense. What I am trying to say is that 88 might fold to our bet which is fine and that AJ is likely to call, which is also fine. Even though we are favorite over both, we increase our equity in the pot when 88 folds and when AJ calls.

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How does one increase his equity when 88 folds here?

Barry

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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Bet the flop. Can make better hands (right now) fold (like 88) and hands that are behind call (like AJ). Also, we pick up more good outs if we make a bare flush draw fold and are ahead of them if we call.

So yeah. Bet...around 600 or so. If raised, get it all in.

Edit: I know the first sentence doesn't make much sense. What I am trying to say is that 88 might fold to our bet which is fine and that AJ is likely to call, which is also fine. Even though we are favorite over both, we increase our equity in the pot when 88 folds and when AJ calls.

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How does one increase his equity when 88 folds here?

Barry

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Because someone folds. It's a common concept in limit hold'em. Any time someone folds, you gain equity. For example, in a 3-way pot in limit hold'em you might raise with the 2nd best hand to knock out the player with the third best hand. It cost you one extra BB to knock him out, but you pick up more equity in the pot.

I'm not saying we are trying to knock 88 out in this hand, but that 88 will likely fold to our bet. Which is fine because it increases our equity in this multi-way pot. Likewise, AJ will likely call our bet, which is fine because we are a favorite over his hand.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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Bet the flop. Can make better hands (right now) fold (like 88) and hands that are behind call (like AJ). Also, we pick up more good outs if we make a bare flush draw fold and are ahead of them if we call.

So yeah. Bet...around 600 or so. If raised, get it all in.

Edit: I know the first sentence doesn't make much sense. What I am trying to say is that 88 might fold to our bet which is fine and that AJ is likely to call, which is also fine. Even though we are favorite over both, we increase our equity in the pot when 88 folds and when AJ calls.

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I'm so rusty, but how is our equity increased when AJ smooth calls?

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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Bet the flop. Can make better hands (right now) fold (like 88) and hands that are behind call (like AJ). Also, we pick up more good outs if we make a bare flush draw fold and are ahead of them if we call.

So yeah. Bet...around 600 or so. If raised, get it all in.

Edit: I know the first sentence doesn't make much sense. What I am trying to say is that 88 might fold to our bet which is fine and that AJ is likely to call, which is also fine. Even though we are favorite over both, we increase our equity in the pot when 88 folds and when AJ calls.

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I'm so rusty, but how is our equity increased when AJ smooth calls?

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Well, our equity in the current pot isn't increased, but we make a bet with a positive expectation. AJ is an underdog to our hand correct? Thus AJ has to put money in the pot with a negative expectation on the current bet (although he may still be correct to call with the current size of the pot).

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

For example, we would want him to call our bet if we for some reason open-pushed, as all chips that enter will be when he had negative expectation

But equity isn't simply what actions happen on that street... yes he's a 'dog' on the flop but if he puts money in with a higher expectation on the turn was it still a negative expectation call on the flop?

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

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This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

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This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

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What I do here is I assume that when I'm making my bet on the flop, that I'm basically committed on the turn, therefore creating a bet into one street into a virtual bet into two.

Barry

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

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This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

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What I do here is I assume that when I'm making my bet on the flop, that I'm basically committed on the turn, therefore creating a bet into one street into a virtual bet into two.

Barry

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That's what I usually do. I am often short enough that it profitable to bet on the flop and then shove the turn.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

Nice to have Nez back.

What's worse, betting and being flat-called or checking and it checking around to a turn when we miss, or for that matter when we don't?

Also, I don't think in a 20/180 we get flat-called very often by TP here because of the draws. We do get called by hands that fold to a second barrel.

That said, it's very easy to fire two barrels into some bastard that won't fold J9 on a blank turn, put him on that hand and then shove the rest in, to no good effect, on a blank river.

As I say, I don't mind a check but readless, I'd rather get chips in the middle and worry about being flatted when it happens. The next blind level is a pain in the arse with a 3k stack but not much less so with a 2.3k stack so I'd rather take some chances now.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

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What I do here is I assume that when I'm making my bet on the flop, that I'm basically committed on the turn, therefore creating a bet into one street into a virtual bet into two.

Barry

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With these stacks this is not possible IMO

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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Nice to have Nez back.

What's worse, betting and being flat-called or checking and it checking around to a turn when we miss, or for that matter when we don't?

Also, I don't think in a 20/180 we get flat-called very often by TP here because of the draws. We do get called by hands that fold to a second barrel.

That said, it's very easy to fire two barrels into some bastard that won't fold J9 on a blank turn, put him on that hand and then shove the rest in, to no good effect, on a blank river.

As I say, I don't mind a check but readless, I'd rather get chips in the middle and worry about being flatted when it happens. The next blind level is a pain in the arse with a 3k stack but not much less so with a 2.3k stack so I'd rather take some chances now.

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Thanks Registrar

Your comment about the blind structure made me realize how true that was in these 20/180's

I'm not by any means saying that betting out is a horrible move.. hell, it's my default in this situation

But thinking about it I want to know if it's right... based on the % of time that we receive action from our villian(s) and actions based on cards to come, etc.

Because without reads this is a logic/math question really I just don't know how to go about it

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action
 

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Your comment about the blind structure made me realize how true that was in these 20/180's

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As an FYI Nez, Stars has changed the structure of all of their MTTs in the last year. Even the 180s now have more levels than before.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of acti
 

Pot the flop and get it in if raised. If you just get called, shove the turn.

Stack size and the multiway nature of the pot makes me want to pot it here -- it sets up stacks nicely for a turn shove.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of acti
 

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Any time someone folds, you gain equity. For example, in a 3-way pot in limit hold'em you might raise with the 2nd best hand to knock out the player with the third best hand. It cost you one extra BB to knock him out, but you pick up more equity in the pot.

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This doesn't apply as much to no-limit as it does to limit because of the nature of the betting.

As for the current hand, it definitely doesn't apply since you have enough equity you make more by getting it all in vs. multiple opponents than you do by knocking 1 out. In your 88 and AJ example, knocking out 88 increases your equity from 48% to 53%, but you get a pot that roughly 2/3 the size, and 0.48*3x > 0.53*2x.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of acti
 

Whoa, I kinda forgot about this thread. The general consensus seems to be lead out. OK, I didn't, mostly because being smooth-called would suck, and I'm not sure how much FE I have if I get raised. So let's move on assuming I check.

2 early limpers, CO limps, SB completes and I check the BB with 76c.

Flop (pot = 750): Jc6h5c.

SB checks. I check with the intention of CRAI. EP limper bets 450 with 750 behind. LP limper (covers) raises to 1600 total. SB folds, and it's on me.

Yuck. Now what? I have about 2850 left.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of acti
 

You still shove.

Re: 20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of acti
 

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I'm not sure how much FE I have if I get raised.



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Probably more than you think and definitely more than you need.

We'd rather whichever villain it is folded higher flush draw, which is more likley to happen if you CR, but 3bet is not ever going to be wrong.

As played, we this is now kind of messy because we have no FE and can't clean up our outs by shoving. We're hoping to be up against two jacks or two flush draws. If we're facing a jack and a high FD, I'm guessing we're toast, though I'd be interested if someone could put this through PS, with any reasonable j and fd in their ranges as well as 56 and maybe 87 and some sets.