Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

This is a strange spot, since I am an ubernit when it comes to bankroll management. Many of you may know my story, many of you may not. Anyways--- I am a 50nl player that has been grinding out the 50nl game since really October of last year. After neteller gave me my $ back my poker BR kind of got way too big for me not to consider taking a "shot".

Any given month--- playing 20 hours a week I would say my expected earning lie between 2-4k depending on how I run.

However, My bankroll is super bloated now, and I have beat much bigger games in the past, but am not as risk tolerant as I used to be.

I have decided to take a 5K shot--- Meaning a 5k stoploss on moving up--- I'm obviously skipping 100nl. So if you had 5k, how would you move up--- would you just jump to 200nl and grind it out there--- or since I am taking a shot, would you say put 5 bi in 400nl and see how it goes and then that way if I lose that I still have 10 bi left behind to try 200nl. Im confident these games are much tougher then when I beat them, but im also pretty confident I can still beat them.

Note: remember this is a "shot"--- 5k is ~20% of my current Bankroll.

Any thoughts/ advice are appreciated and welcome.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

If you've beaten bigger games in the past, then I'd probably start at 200NL until you get a feel for how much the games have changed since you last played them.

I'd rather start at 200NL and move up once you've established that you still have an edge on the players than the other way around.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

Since I have a vague memory of you tilting easily, I wonder if you can keep your cool playing 400, hitting a bad streak and then have to play 200NL slightly 'underrolled' ?

If you can, by all means hit it ... else I'd say just play 200NL for a week or so before you push the envelope further.


That being said, it's about time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


GL dex !

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

if you're confident you can play at 200, hop to it

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since I have a vague memory of you tilting easily, I wonder if you can keep your cool playing 400, hitting a bad streak and then have to play 200NL slightly 'underrolled' ?

If you can, by all means hit it ... else I'd say just play 200NL for a week or so before you push the envelope further.


That being said, it's about time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


GL dex !

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been prone to tilt in the past, yes, but hopefully since I'll be playing for a lot more $ i'll spend more time and effort evaluating my emotional state and each individual decision.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

with those options, i would start at 200nl, if I am running good and playing well as my tables dry up during a session I will up the stakes.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you're confident you can play at 200, hop to it

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my base level of understanding and thought processes are much too complicated for 50nl and maybe even 100nl---- when I started playing cash 4 years ago 200nl was the lowest I ever played until the crash and rebuilding of my poker career---- but the games back then were softer at 200nl then they are at 50nl now---- so I'm not sure what to expect in the shark infested waters of 200nl and above, but I think i'm ready and I think its been time for a long time.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

also, let it be noted, I won't take this shot until say, mid september--- mostly b/c I am going to California on vacation with my g/f and I just bought a new plasma, so I want to enjoy it---- Im gonna polish up at 50nl and 100nl the next two weeks and then Ill update you all on my shot, what I decided to do, and how its going--- if nothing else I think the move up will help improve my poker game further

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
also, let it be noted, I won't take this shot until say, mid september--- mostly b/c I am going to California on vacation with my g/f and I just bought a new plasma, so I want to enjoy it---- Im gonna polish up at 50nl and 100nl the next two weeks and then Ill update you all on my shot, what I decided to do, and how its going--- if nothing else I think the move up will help improve my poker game further

[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny, after moving up, the previous levels seem alot easier usually. Moving up does wonders for your game

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you're confident you can play at 200, hop to it

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

so the general consensus is play 200nl instead of 400nl?

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

I'd start at 100 because I suck but Im sure you'll tear up 200

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

i dont see why u dont want to move to 100nl first??? if u play 100nl and then just insta jump to 200nl tha game will be tremendously different. why not play 100nl for 2 weeks then make tha jump too 200nl??

am i missin something??

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

Don't really understand it either...OP stated he's a huge BR nit. Suddenly switching from having a $200, 4 buyin downswing to a $800 downswing would probably change your game in unexpected ways. I'd at least temporarily make a lay-over at NL100. I don't necessarily think NL200 is going to be this huge jump in skill level (the CR vids show there are plenty of donks there too) but the jump in $s and effect of that first huge hit of variance might be a ballbuster.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

so your roll is 25k and you're still playing 50NL? dude - move up to 400NL already. Thing is that is a crazy jump, so I guess I'd play 100NL for a month, then 200NL for a month, and then 400NL.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think my base level of understanding and thought processes are much too complicated for 50nl and maybe even 100nl

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're too good for us microdonk peons, eh? Is that what you're trying to say?? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


(j/k - although that does explain a couple of your posts - specifically the JJ on Q-hi board one)

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

my roll is 25k---- was 30k but i just withdrew 5 for a new plasma tv and to help pay for a vacation to san diego---

I have a really good job and I play poker for supplemental income.

The last 3 months I have been making $50+ an hour 6 tabling nl50

the reason I don't play 100nl is b/c my winrate is not anywhere near half my winrate at 50nl--- its not that I can't beat 100nl, just not for as much, so why play harder games with more variance for less then what i'm already making

the reason i'm going to try and take a shot at 200nl or 400nl is I think at these limits I can have a better hourly rate then the one I currently have--- maybe as much as double

3 years ago when I wasn't very good, after my first big downswing at 1000nl and 600nl I cashed out 30k to buy a car and then with the remaining $ tried grinding out 400nl---- I had a 12k downswing ( 30 buy-ins) and i've probably logged less then 15k hands at 400nl since. during college I really didn't care about $ and risks as much--- now that I work hard for my $ I would never play a level I couldn't beat just to gamble it up.

I just think I owe it to myself to see if I can beat 200nl and 400nl for a month or so--- just b/c I think i have the opportunity to make a lot more $ there, although I would never expect my winrates to be the same as nl50.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

Would it really be taking a shot if you worked your way up methodically? I would move to NL200 and see how it goes. Watch out for the tiltomonster though. The whole point is that you don't see it coming until it is too late.

+EV

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

well i know it's not taking "a shot" as most of you would describe it, but what i've been doing for close a year now is just extremely low variance easy $. I am very capable of quickly adapting to games, regardless of the limit, and I am pretty familiar w/ 100nl as dabbled there the last 3 months, like I said, just not worth my time. So, this is a "shot" for me--- knowing that if i play bad/run bad/tilt whatever that I could easily lose in a few days what i've been making over the course of an entire month of grinding at 50nl. Im more worried about the emotional control then anything. My BR won't be affected whether this goes good or bad--- but I could be emotionally effected---- its been awhile since I've won or lost more than $1500 in a day. 200nl shouldn't play that difficult for me, but I know 400nl will be a big challenge, but if those goes well I'd like to be regular at 400nl by the new year.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

$50/hour @ 50NL? what's your PTBB/100?

And I don't know - if you have that big of a roll - and already have a good job, the question I would ask is why WOULDN'T you move up to 200NL/400NL. If it doesn't work out - it doesn't work out - you still have a huge roll to play 50NL with and at least you have that experience. imo - it's always better to try something new and get out of your comfort zone (within reason) than to stick to old habits which may be limiting your growth potential.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

50 an hour 6 tabling nl50 requires a winrate of like 7.75 ptbb

ive been at 8-12 the last 2 months

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

seems like it'd be much better to post this in SSNL than uNL dude.

I'm pretty sure 400 plays a lot different than 50. I can even tell a difference between 50 and 100. So I wouldn't jump up to to 400 and then drop to 200. It'd suck if you jumped to 400 when you were actually barely a winning player at 200. I'd move up to 100NL for like 2 weeks or 20k hands. If your winning, jump up to 200NL. If you beat that level it won't take you that long to reach 400NL. I'd also just keep a roll of 9k max. Rlly no need for 25k roll unless u wanna jump straight to 400NL.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

Hey,

I really advise you to start at $200nl. The jump from $200 -> $400nl is huge. The jump from $100-$200nl is not. The only thing you will notice are these things:

much more PF aggression. 3bet pots like madness (starting at $200nl and will get much worse at $400nl) Also, you wont be able to take down pots as easy with a cbet. Ofcourse, the general play will be a bit better.

However, Ive read a lot of your posts over the past few months, and Im confident that you would be able to beat $200nl. Im not sure about $400nl though, since even for a LOT of SSNL grinders this jump is often too big. Take a look in the brew in SSNL, alot of player are already playing 3-4 months+ at 200nl before moving up to the midstakes.


Having said this, go and own $200nl! Will meet you there soon [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

Starting at 400NL after grinding at 50NL for almost a year would be like jumping from a frozen lake into a hot tub. It is a terrible, terrible idea. The game plays absolutely nothing like 50NL, and you'll likely get eaten up by the aggression in the first few K hands then overadjust or adjust improperly and get owned some more.

200NL is a good starting point.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
my roll is 25k---- was 30k but i just withdrew 5 for a new plasma tv and to help pay for a vacation to san diego---

The last 3 months I have been making $50+ an hour 6 tabling nl50

3 years ago when I wasn't very good, after my first big downswing at 1000nl and 600nl I cashed out 30k to buy a car and then with the remaining $ tried grinding out 400nl---- I had a 12k downswing ( 30 buy-ins) and i've probably logged less then 15k hands at 400nl since. during college I really didn't care about $ and risks as much--- now that I work hard for my $ I would never play a level I couldn't beat just to gamble it up.


[/ QUOTE ]

Damn I had to check to see what forum i was in...for a sec I couldve sworn i was in BBV. Someone have a big E-penis or what??

[ QUOTE ]
the reason I don't play 100nl is b/c my winrate is not anywhere near half my winrate at 50nl--- its not that I can't beat 100nl, just not for as much, so why play harder games with more variance for less then what i'm already making

the reason i'm going to try and take a shot at 200nl or 400nl is I think at these limits I can have a better hourly rate then the one I currently have--- maybe as much as double

I just think I owe it to myself to see if I can beat 200nl and 400nl for a month or so--- just b/c I think i have the opportunity to make a lot more $ there, although I would never expect my winrates to be the same as nl50.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this makes absolutely no since...

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
my roll is 25k---- was 30k but i just withdrew 5 for a new plasma tv and to help pay for a vacation to san diego---

I have a really good job and I play poker for supplemental income.

The last 3 months I have been making $50+ an hour 6 tabling nl50

the reason I don't play 100nl is b/c my winrate is not anywhere near half my winrate at 50nl--- its not that I can't beat 100nl, just not for as much, so why play harder games with more variance for less then what i'm already making

the reason i'm going to try and take a shot at 200nl or 400nl is I think at these limits I can have a better hourly rate then the one I currently have--- maybe as much as double

3 years ago when I wasn't very good, after my first big downswing at 1000nl and 600nl I cashed out 30k to buy a car and then with the remaining $ tried grinding out 400nl---- I had a 12k downswing ( 30 buy-ins) and i've probably logged less then 15k hands at 400nl since. during college I really didn't care about $ and risks as much--- now that I work hard for my $ I would never play a level I couldn't beat just to gamble it up.

I just think I owe it to myself to see if I can beat 200nl and 400nl for a month or so--- just b/c I think i have the opportunity to make a lot more $ there, although I would never expect my winrates to be the same as nl50.

[/ QUOTE ]lol this doesnt make n e sense to me. if ur winrate at 100nl is less then half ur 50nl winrate wont ur 200nl win rate be even lower??? thus making u no more money per hour at 200nl????

i cant imagine that if ur winrate at 100nl is lower that ull make more by jumping up ANOTHER limit. that seems ludacris to me.

sounds like the "there r too many bad people so i cant win" theory.

idk but i cant see why u wouldnt play 20 or 30k hands at 100nl then moving to 200nl and playin 20 or 30k hands there and then moving up again. (assuming u want to and are having success and all obv.)

jumping straight from 50nl to 400nl is 100% rediculous to me. almost laughable. the games would b as different as me speaking in english and japanese.

idk tho. just seems to me that if u really want to give urself the best chance to succeed at the higher levels the best choice is to slowly immerse urself in them. not just hopping right in

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my roll is 25k---- was 30k but i just withdrew 5 for a new plasma tv and to help pay for a vacation to san diego---

I have a really good job and I play poker for supplemental income.

The last 3 months I have been making $50+ an hour 6 tabling nl50

the reason I don't play 100nl is b/c my winrate is not anywhere near half my winrate at 50nl--- its not that I can't beat 100nl, just not for as much, so why play harder games with more variance for less then what i'm already making

the reason i'm going to try and take a shot at 200nl or 400nl is I think at these limits I can have a better hourly rate then the one I currently have--- maybe as much as double

3 years ago when I wasn't very good, after my first big downswing at 1000nl and 600nl I cashed out 30k to buy a car and then with the remaining $ tried grinding out 400nl---- I had a 12k downswing ( 30 buy-ins) and i've probably logged less then 15k hands at 400nl since. during college I really didn't care about $ and risks as much--- now that I work hard for my $ I would never play a level I couldn't beat just to gamble it up.

I just think I owe it to myself to see if I can beat 200nl and 400nl for a month or so--- just b/c I think i have the opportunity to make a lot more $ there, although I would never expect my winrates to be the same as nl50.

[/ QUOTE ]lol this doesnt make n e sense to me. if ur winrate at 100nl is less then half ur 50nl winrate wont ur 200nl win rate be even lower??? thus making u no more money per hour at 200nl????

i cant imagine that if ur winrate at 100nl is lower that ull make more by jumping up ANOTHER limit. that seems ludacris to me.

sounds like the "there r too many bad people so i cant win" theory.

idk but i cant see why u wouldnt play 20 or 30k hands at 100nl then moving to 200nl and playin 20 or 30k hands there and then moving up again. (assuming u want to and are having success and all obv.)

jumping straight from 50nl to 400nl is 100% rediculous to me. almost laughable. the games would b as different as me speaking in english and japanese.

idk tho. just seems to me that if u really want to give urself the best chance to succeed at the higher levels the best choice is to slowly immerse urself in them. not just hopping right in

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive logged probably 300k hands above 200nl--- mostly at 400nl and 600nl, some 1000nl and a very sparse visit to 2000nl---- but it's been awhile, im sure the games are much different--- they are for sure different at 50 nl post UIGEA---- but my point is I have some experience higher up.

anyways---- It's not like im not beating 100nl--- im just beating it for like 3-4 ptbb---- which is decent---- but if I can do 8-10 ptbb at 50nl with a lot less risk there is no sense in playing 100nl----- however if I can beat 200nl for say 3.5 ptbb then that will be beating my 50nl rate pretty badly---- hence the reason for the move.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my roll is 25k---- was 30k but i just withdrew 5 for a new plasma tv and to help pay for a vacation to san diego---

I have a really good job and I play poker for supplemental income.

The last 3 months I have been making $50+ an hour 6 tabling nl50

the reason I don't play 100nl is b/c my winrate is not anywhere near half my winrate at 50nl--- its not that I can't beat 100nl, just not for as much, so why play harder games with more variance for less then what i'm already making

the reason i'm going to try and take a shot at 200nl or 400nl is I think at these limits I can have a better hourly rate then the one I currently have--- maybe as much as double

3 years ago when I wasn't very good, after my first big downswing at 1000nl and 600nl I cashed out 30k to buy a car and then with the remaining $ tried grinding out 400nl---- I had a 12k downswing ( 30 buy-ins) and i've probably logged less then 15k hands at 400nl since. during college I really didn't care about $ and risks as much--- now that I work hard for my $ I would never play a level I couldn't beat just to gamble it up.

I just think I owe it to myself to see if I can beat 200nl and 400nl for a month or so--- just b/c I think i have the opportunity to make a lot more $ there, although I would never expect my winrates to be the same as nl50.

[/ QUOTE ]lol this doesnt make n e sense to me. if ur winrate at 100nl is less then half ur 50nl winrate wont ur 200nl win rate be even lower??? thus making u no more money per hour at 200nl????

i cant imagine that if ur winrate at 100nl is lower that ull make more by jumping up ANOTHER limit. that seems ludacris to me.

sounds like the "there r too many bad people so i cant win" theory.

idk but i cant see why u wouldnt play 20 or 30k hands at 100nl then moving to 200nl and playin 20 or 30k hands there and then moving up again. (assuming u want to and are having success and all obv.)

jumping straight from 50nl to 400nl is 100% rediculous to me. almost laughable. the games would b as different as me speaking in english and japanese.

idk tho. just seems to me that if u really want to give urself the best chance to succeed at the higher levels the best choice is to slowly immerse urself in them. not just hopping right in

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive logged probably 300k hands above 200nl--- mostly at 400nl and 600nl, some 1000nl and a very sparse visit to 2000nl---- but it's been awhile, im sure the games are much different--- they are for sure different at 50 nl post UIGEA---- but my point is I have some experience higher up.

anyways---- It's not like im not beating 100nl--- im just beating it for like 3-4 ptbb---- which is decent---- but if I can do 8-10 ptbb at 50nl with a lot less risk there is no sense in playing 100nl----- however if I can beat 200nl for say 3.5 ptbb then that will be beating my 50nl rate pretty badly---- hence the reason for the move.

[/ QUOTE ]yea i understand that idea. tha thing i am confused with is if u beat 100nl for 3-4 bb/100 then wont ur 200nl be below that??? thus makin it reasonably similar in ur hourly but only the money matters a ton more, and since ur bb/100 is so much lower u will b all over the charts when it comes to varience. (something ur obv not used to since ur killin 50nl. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

idk. i still think it is worth a couple weeks at 100nl and then go from their. if n e thing it will at least give u a better shot at having success at 200nl imo

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

i guess dex is saying the drop-off won't be that great between 100 and 200.

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

taking shots isnt a big deal obv from your situation u should have taken shots sooner but you should never view it as an astronomical leap if u want to skip a few levels i recomend you get some coaching, the coaching directory is stickeyed in the MSNL forum. just dont veiw moving up as a quantim leap type of thing. for example lets say u have a day where u made 1k @ 200nl then take a 1 buy in shot a 400 just take shots when u feel u are playing well but if u feel uncomfortable when your playing 200nl or 400nl i guaruntee u will lose until you fix that. sounds like you have an enormous amount of patience and motivation for grinding which is a rare trait in a poker player and a trait that exists in the most sucessful players. If you dont want to move up to 200nl or 400nl than atleast start playing some 100nl because the difference in the levels of play is not big enough to effect your winrate as much as you says it does so i suspect u werent running too well when u were playing it. GL

Re: Taking a Shot, How would you do it?
 

It isn't "taking a shot", just move up already...