overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

live 1/2, typical table. I'm more interested in theory here, so even though I have pretty good reads, I wont post them.

Most of the table is $300 deep (its analogous to 100bb because PFRs run big). Several limps to me in late position, I make it $15 (standard) with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Button calls, blind calls, two limpers call.

Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the pot is $80 and far too big for my hand.

EP leads $10, MP calls $10. Button is left to act, and has $500 (I cover). the others have about $300.

WTF do I do here? Pot control can destroy my hand because about every single card in the deck is going to make one of 4 players two pair or a flush or trips or who knows what. Raising gets way too much money in with a weak hand in a multiway pot, with deep enough stacks that I really dont want to put any more money in, which may not be possible.


* I raise smallish, $75 total. I don't feel comfortable doing this because it means I'm representing AA which is stronger than I have. This seems intuitively bad to me but I'm not really sure why it matters here.

what is my turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plan if one person calls (pot $230)? two people call (pot $315? if I don't get a blank I'm obviously folding. a 5 is probably a blank (I'd me willing to put some more money in), a J is not a blank.


* I call the flop $10, and LP calls. What is my turn plan on a 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and it checks to me? If I check and LP bets $80 into $120? if he checks and we see the river 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] full ring

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

bump, eagerly awaiting thoughts

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

christ please raise the flop. these guys are awful and if you really feel like you are beat, u can still get away from it pretty easy.

if the turn is an offsuit ducket, im willing to get it AI at these levels.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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christ please raise the flop. these guys are awful and if you really feel like you are beat, u can still get away from it pretty easy.

if the turn is an offsuit ducket, im willing to get it AI at these levels.

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heh I used to think like you when i originally moved down from msnl, i learned a 10 buyin lesson

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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christ please raise the flop. these guys are awful and if you really feel like you are beat, u can still get away from it pretty easy.

if the turn is an offsuit ducket, im willing to get it AI at these levels.

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heh I used to think like you when i originally moved down from msnl, i learned a 10 buyin lesson

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k keep looking for a stake if u wont raise this flop with TPTK in a god damned 1/2NL LIVE GAME.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

when you say u moved down from msnl and learned a 10 bi lesson was this online? if so its completely different and in most 1/2 live games I'm willing to get it in on the flop and definitely on a blank turn. prob not vs. the $500 stack tho. also you say u have reads but don't post them? they're kinda important

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

ok and i told u there is no 2 ways to go about this hand really unless you want to just fold it almost always. You then went and said 'HAHA YOU SUCK'.

If you want to get into theory about overrepping and hand and committing yourself to a pot, you picked a [censored] hand to do it with.

If you actually HAVE a comment more than, HAHA YOU SUCK, and think that I am thinking about this stupidly instead of waiting to raise a blank turn, (all of like, 18 cards) than go ahead and make it. Im pretty sure i already understand it, but go ahead.

and dont make theory posts if you dont want to put in your thoughts when you feel somebody is wrong.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

pop it to $70 fold to a push if you're worried? wtf are you thinking have you seriously played in a live 1/2 game before

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

gimme, I don't think you suck.
partysover, I've booked hundreds of hours playing NL live at several stakes.

to everyone who says raise,

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* I raise smallish, $75 total. ... what is my turn 2 plan if one person calls (pot $230)? two people call (pot $315)? if I don't get a blank I'm obviously folding. a 5 is probably a blank (I'd me willing to put some more money in), a J is not a blank.

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Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

what range of hands do you think they are calling you with if you push right now?

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

lets get some serious comments.

the prob is that a big raise will not make much more profit than a call because of the nature of the board. but raising inflates the pot and calling doesn't. so one question is, givin call and raise are equal in EV from a flop perspective, which one is best? Do we want a huge pot on the turn or a big pot on the turn?


I think I'm going with huge pot to shove a turn blank. People will call allin with FDs and KQ right?

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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what range of hands do you think they are calling you with if you push right now?

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thats actually really interesting, I didn't even consider that option. Straight pushing is really the only way that all the money can go in on the flop and me still have a chance at being ahead.

I really like this; I can get called by KQ for sure, theres no reason to put anyone on anything strong, the pots pretty big so I don't mind just picking it up and not having to dodge every kicker and diamond and straightening card in the deck.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

well the downside is the button with 500 behind you that has given no indication of his hand strength. sucks losing 250bbs that way.

but if it wasn't for him, I would seriously consider pushing flop.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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the prob is that a big raise will not make much more profit than a call because of the nature of the board. but raising inflates the pot and calling doesn't. so one question is, givin call and raise are equal in EV from a flop perspective

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Im not sure what you mean by this - a raise could make more profit if two people called with draws, for example.

The cliche that keeps running through my head is "big pot big hand, small pot small hand" and I really think it sums up a lot of pot control situations very well. Yes, there are reasons to abandon pot control, but I cant decide if this is one of them.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

if scare cards come b/f 75 again, i havnt seen a lot of bluffing on scare cards

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

betting 75 on the turn commits me to anyone but button, even if its heads up

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

Pushing was my first thought as well. Would button have smooth called pre-flop with JJ-AA?

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lol his button vpip is like 60%. and he is nuts. so yeah, he can.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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lol his button vpip is like 60%. and he is nuts. so yeah, he can.

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Hmm. That sucks (at least in this spot).

Well, you can't call the donk bet because it allows all kinds of trash to catch and beat you on the turn. If a realistic (for this table) raise or a shove will get called by a worse hand then raise/shove. If you raise, obviously you are stacking off to anyone except button on most turns. Sucky spot.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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the prob is that a big raise will not make much more profit than a call because of the nature of the board. but raising inflates the pot and calling doesn't. so one question is, givin call and raise are equal in EV from a flop perspective

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Im not sure what you mean by this - a raise could make more profit if two people called with draws, for example.


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Well if you think raising has more EV than calling because of the drawy board then raise. I don't get your question then.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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christ please raise the flop. these guys are awful and if you really feel like you are beat, u can still get away from it pretty easy.

if the turn is an offsuit ducket, im willing to get it AI at these levels.

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heh I used to think like you when i originally moved down from msnl, [b]then i turned into a ssnl-bot and now grind by folding nonstop

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Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

Raise the flop bet to around $95...a $10 bet in this game usually means that I got junk and want to see what you'll do. You want to charge them for drawing and they likely will call.

I don't want to push and over-bet the pot.

As for the turn, if two people call and a diamond falls, I could probably get away if there's a lot of action, but I'm more or less pushing the turn when a blank falls.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

first thing first you should have raised more preflop then i would personally raise the flop to an amount in which you feel comfortable with to get away from after that i would have to say that if more than one person calls your raise on the flop things are not looking too good but if just one person calls your raise i on the flop i would have to go on my reads on later streets.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

hooked brings up a valid point. how does everyone feel about preflop?

$15 was standard for me, it usually got about 3 callers. I didn't experiment much with anything bigger this session, though typically you can exponentially raise fold equity by betting more. Other players would raise anywhere from $7 to $15.

What should I be thinking about when choosing a raise size with this hand? Im not to concerned with disguise or consistency, they don't really notice.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

Raise as much as possible preflop that will likely get 1 - 2 callers.

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if they don't notice, just raise big with big hands and small with potbuilder hands.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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christ please raise the flop. these guys are awful and if you really feel like you are beat, u can still get away from it pretty easy.

if the turn is an offsuit ducket, im willing to get it AI at these levels.

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heh I used to think like you when i originally moved down from msnl, i learned a 10 buyin lesson

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If that's the lesson you learned, you suck at live poker. Seriously.

Or you play at tables that are 3 or 4 standard deviations better than most $1/$2 NL Live tables.

Oh, and your comment that raising represents AA, which you don't want to do because it is stronger than your hand, is pretty silly. There is little difference in the strength of your hand vs. their calling ranges and the strength of AA, because no one has KK here.

Vs. flush draws, queens, jacks, etc, AA has only a tiny bit more equity (mostly through the virtue of being able to pair the board to make a higher 2 pair vs. QJ or some such).

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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Or you play at tables that are 3 or 4 standard deviations better than most $1/$2 NL Live tables.


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This hand is a lot more interesting if this is true.

Given the current situation, wtf? I've seen players stack off with TT here, A high (no flush draw), ect... Raising certianly does not overrepresent your hand at all.

Maybe the 1-2 games in my area are a lot weaker than yours, but this isn't really a spot where I am scared to get it in.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

its more than a tiny bit, but good post

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You have the effective nuts given the action so far

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

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You have the effective nuts given the action so far

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what does that have to do with anything? we've played half a street.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

Just a thought; when you dont like the pot size on the flop when the preflop action was predictable and you flopped a common hand, then you probably made a mistake in your preflop bet sizing.


So I guess your problem in the hand is that the flop pot is a size where you don't do whether or not to commit with your hand.

So the solution could be to raise smaller or bigger preflop. I guess bigger to shove flop ftw.

Re: overrepresenting my hand, commitment thresholds
 

well, i was expecting to play a $50 pot on the flop. but you're right, in general.