NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

SB is usualy shortstacker who buys in for 40$.. BUT if he is short he always showes AA preflop.. Have seen it at least 5 times.. His stats are 20/5/1.5 over 300+ hands..


SB: $213.40
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $177.10
MP: $353.55
CO: $132.18
BTN: $181.68

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $213.40</font>, Hero ?

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

gah. when i first started playing poker i did this with AA all the time. and people would look me up with all sorts of hands.

in any case, i call. if he played it standard, and has AA, you're gonna get stacked anyways.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

does he shove any other hand preflop.
i would call but be scared given the history

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

ahhh
well perhaps he is just trying to steal you blind w/ a hand he doesn't like to play oop. I would call here... if he would be UTG I would more likely to be folding.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

lol that's so sick. I probably call

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

it is pretty sick, that being said, i usually couldn't fold this even if it wasn't a bvb war

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

Call and accept your fate.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

yea... if he shoves any other hand... i'd call. but if he only does with aces... then fold it.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

Ugh, this is gross.

Given history it's probably a fold... I don't think I could do it though.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

If he's used to playing short stack he could have easily just clicked all in as default...ugh...so gross.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

how is this gross? snap call ffs

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

lol not gross at all

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

lol snap call?

OP says he's seen him do this 5 times and he always shows up with aces. So were just going to ignore history and call because ZOMG we has KK?

Even if we assume he's doing this with QQ+, folding and calling are both about 0EV. Not exactly a fistpump.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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lol not gross at all

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Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

even if his range is QQ+ then folding costs you $2 in EV

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

If OP's read is accurate and we choose to ignore it, then calling costs us $162 in EV.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

[/ QUOTE ]The chances of him doing this only 5 times and getting called everytime so OP saw what he pushed with is slim to none to begin with.Im guessing OP saw him flip AA a few times in this situation,but if hes that bad why assume hed never make a similar bad play with another holding.Call!!!!!!!!

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

[/ QUOTE ]The chances of him doing this only 5 times and getting called everytime so OP saw what he pushed with is slim to none to begin with.Im guessing OP saw him flip AA a few times in this situation,but if hes that bad why assume hed never make a similar bad play with another holding.Call!!!!!!!!

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We don't need to see what he has every time. All we know is that, out of a sample of 5 times, he's had AA 5 times and other hands 0 times. If he's doing this with a range as wide as JJ+, AK the probability that he has AA when he open pushes is 6/40 = 15%. This means that the chances he happened to have AA all 5 times out of a sample of 5 is (.15)^5 = 0.000076.

Putting him on a range this wide given the evidence is unreasonable. At the very least, we need to weight his range heavily in favour of AA, which makes this a tough call.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

we could talk about JJ but not KK

come on guys

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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we could talk about JJ but not KK

come on guys

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Calling this with JJ is flat out terrible.

Could one of the "snap call" posters please explain their reasoning here. It sounds like you guys just want to force a wide enough range on this guy so you don't have to consider folding KK. I know folding KK is LOL an all, but this is not at all a typical spot and folding really can't be that bad.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

call. deal with it. this isnt a tough call. he is playing with 100~bb now, i think using this 5 hand history of when he is super short and folding is absurd.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

QQ is closer, I never fold KK here

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

[x] Don't fold KK pre-flop for 100 bbs

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

Nice mathematical analysis, Ringmaster. If OPs observationn is correct, this is an insta-fold. But these players here will never fold KK preflop - never! Sometimes I think you could play AA preflop face up and they would still call your shove with KK.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

This is such an easy fold.

I can't think of a better read than knowing what someone held 100% of the time in the same situation. You MUST treat him as having aces until he gives you reason to suspect something else.

If anything, the larger stack size makes it even more likely that he has aces, since he is now willing to risk even more money with his open shove.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

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Because OP stated that he had done it 5 times with 20BB and never with 100BB. If he had done it 5 times with a full stack I would actually think about it before I call.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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Sometimes I think you could play AA preflop face up and they would still call your shove with KK.

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LOL, so true.

Villain seems to be telegraphing his hand here, and everyone in this thread is plugging their ears going "lalalalala, I can't hear you, I don't fold KK preflop". While normally I agree, I think folding in this case warrants consideration.

Oh well, its not like this is a common situation or anything. I just find it interesting that people will flat out ignore the OP's read and call anyway.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

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Because OP stated that he had done it 5 times with 20BB and never with 100BB. If he had done it 5 times with a full stack I would actually think about it before I call.

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So, you're saying that because he has more money behind, his range is wider?

WTF? This makes no sense.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

Who cares? We have KK and it's for 100bbs. Call and suck out on him and start berating him in chat after the hand regardless of the result.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

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Because OP stated that he had done it 5 times with 20BB and never with 100BB. If he had done it 5 times with a full stack I would actually think about it before I call.

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So, you're saying that because he has more money behind, his range is wider?

WTF? This makes no sense.

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If he is stil playing a short stack strategy then his shoving range is much wider than AA.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

OP is specific in saying the the 5 time the villain has open pushed AA has been with 40BB not 100

Call.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

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Because OP stated that he had done it 5 times with 20BB and never with 100BB. If he had done it 5 times with a full stack I would actually think about it before I call.

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So, you're saying that because he has more money behind, his range is wider?

WTF? This makes no sense.

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If he is stil playing a short stack strategy then his shoving range is much wider than AA.

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Except he doesn't play a TAG shortstack strategy. He plays 20/5, and apparently the only hands that have been seen shown down when he's openshoved is AA.

We're praying his range is QQ+ here, IMO.

That said, I pray and call 100 times out of 100.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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I would snapcall and wouldnt be surprised to see JJ or AK.

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He's done this 5 times, each time with AA, and you want to put JJ and AK in his range because...?

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Because OP stated that he had done it 5 times with 20BB and never with 100BB. If he had done it 5 times with a full stack I would actually think about it before I call.

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So, you're saying that because he has more money behind, his range is wider?

WTF? This makes no sense.

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If he is stil playing a short stack strategy then his shoving range is much wider than AA.

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I dont agree. I think hes range never is waider here bcoz he is afraid of plaing postflop SOO deep + his stats is passive and not 45+/20+...but main question is: Is folding those 2$ such a mistake even if I have KK in this spot?

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

I'm not following.... If he's afraid of playing postflop then obviously his pushing range has to be wider than just AA. Or what do you think he does with QQ? Call? Make a normal raise and play a pot OOP?

If you are 100% sure that this is AA then what is your question? Then its an obvious fold.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

The bible says: thou shalt not fold your kingdom preflop, so I insta call even before thinking about his history/range.

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

Can all the noobs and lurkers stop saying fold...

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

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The bible says: thou shalt not fold your kingdom preflop, so I insta call even before thinking about his history/range.

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Wow you're so right... why should we think about trivial things like history/range when we have 2+2 gospel to play by?

Re: NL 200. KK. Preflop openshove.. Instacall? 200 NL 6max
 

have you ever seen him push a hand other than AA? if so, it's a snap call

if not i think it's foldable