QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

villain is 12/12/1.7 (50 hands)

i have been very active (for a TAG), winning a lot of small pots without showdown. i'm probably about 17/15/4 at this table. no memorable hands vs. villain.


Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $205.47
CO: $359.20
Hero: $235.95
SB: $210.05
BB: $177.05

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $25</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($52, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $40</font>, Hero feels lost

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

Calls. This kind of player wont fire again on the turn without having you beat so you can safely fold to further bets.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

what about AJ? would he never reraise preflop with that?
will he c-bet all of his AQ hands?

let's suppose i do have 55% equity, should i raise now, or will he only call with hands that have me beat?

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Calls. This kind of player wont fire again on the turn without having you beat so you can safely fold to further bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

this sounds very reasonable to me.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

and i'm not even a clear favorite over that hand:


Board: Jd 3d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.111% 51.11% 00.00% 506 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 48.889% 48.89% 00.00% 484 0.00 { AdJs }

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? For one thing, even if Ad/Kd hands are folding to a push then it is a great result. Secondly, they don't.

Shove here. Charge higher flush draws/random c-betting hands to suck out. You're ahead of his range and a diamond A or K might kill you. This is a no brainer.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

i think it's close between call flop/fold turn and fold flop. your equity against a very tight range is 54% (TT+, AKo) and against a slightly wider range (88+, AQs+) is 66%. i don't think you;'re getting bluffed out very often on the turn (except by Adx, which there are few combos of), so you can safely fold on the turn.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? For one thing, even if Ad/Kd hands are folding to a push then it is a great result. Secondly, they don't.

Shove here. Charge higher flush draws/random c-betting hands to suck out. You're ahead of his range and a diamond A or K might kill you. This is a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you include AQo in villain's 3betting range, then i think you have to include TT, which increases our equity. secondly, there are only 6 combos of AdKx; AdQx (i don't think he calls with AxKd tbh). that's a very small range that we beat, and that by a very small margin to offset the times we're crushed by JJ, KK, AA.

I think this is a perfect place to exercise pot control, primarily because villain will let us know by the turn whether we're beat.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

I understand that villain's a nit and everything, but it's button v blind and we've flopped an overpair with a flush draw. Folding at any point seems terrible to me.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

shove for value plz

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove for value plz

[/ QUOTE ]

what is villains range so that shoving is +ev?

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shove for value plz

[/ QUOTE ]

what is villains range so that shoving is +ev?

[/ QUOTE ]


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

Yeah, like he calls with AQ/AK no diamond.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shove for value plz

[/ QUOTE ]

what is villains range so that shoving is +ev?

[/ QUOTE ]


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm pretty sure he wouldn't call a shove on the flop (or even c-bet) with AQ without a diamond, the other QQ combo (no diamond), AK with no diamond, and he NEEDS to call with these hands for my equity to be 55.4%, right?


if i'm right it's more like

Board: Jd 3d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.878% 31.88% 00.00% 6943 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 68.122% 68.12% 00.00% 14837 0.00 { KK+, JJ, AdKd, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd }

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

shove and its not close

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, like he calls with AQ/AK no diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he doesn't call, but he could easily c-bet them.

The times we're called we're unlikely to be in great shape, though we'll be ahead our fair share. Point is, at this point in time, facing a c-bet in a re-raised pot, our hand is ahead of villain's range. The board is heavily coordinated and we have one PSB left. The money has to go in.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shove for value plz

[/ QUOTE ]

what is villains range so that shoving is +ev?

[/ QUOTE ]


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not so sure if he really raises me preflop with AQo.

and i'm pretty sure he wouldn't call a shove on the flop (or even c-bet) with AQ without a diamond, the other QQ combo (no diamond), AK with no diamond, and he NEEDS to call with these hands for my equity to be 55.4%, right?


if i'm right it's more like

Board: Jd 3d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.878% 31.88% 00.00% 6943 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 68.122% 68.12% 00.00% 14837 0.00 { KK+, JJ, AdKd, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd }


[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is huge already, you don't need 55% equity against his calling range for a push to be +ev. Shoving and getting a fold from a J, or AK or an Ad or Kd is a good result as well.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shove for value plz

[/ QUOTE ]

what is villains range so that shoving is +ev?

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.005 secs 7,722,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.682% 47.87% 00.82% 18481 315.00 { KK+, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, AdKd, AJs, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs, AsQh, AJo }
Hand 1: 51.318% 50.50% 00.82% 19499 315.00 { QcQd }

Counting the times he folds to a push, shoving here is hugely +EV.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not raising here is quite dumb

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

my head is spinning.

obviously it depends on the range we put villain on.
possibly my range was a bit too tight (due to results orientedness).

i still don't see how this is hugely +ev, but shoving might be the right move.
i'm not certain what the definite answer is. but thanks for the good discussion!

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove and its not close

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
i still don't see how this is hugely +ev

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is, just think about it. If we're 50/50 vs his calling range, shoving would be 0EV if he calls every time. Clearly he's folding some % of the time. You opened from the button, so his 3-bet range is likely pretty wide (especially since you said you had been active on the table). He's likely c-betting with his whole range on the flop (or close to it). So when we push, he's folding a significant amount of the time.

Exactly how often is up for debate, but suppose he folds only 10% of the time. There's 92 in the pot, so we'd get +9.2 in EV from pushing just from the 1 in 10 times he folds. Most player are going to be folding a lot more than this in a button vs blind situation. If we're close to EV neutral when he calls, and that seems to be the case here, then the fold equity we get from pushing is just printing money.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i still don't see how this is hugely +ev

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is, just think about it. If we're 50/50 vs his calling range, shoving would be 0EV if he calls every time. Clearly he's folding some % of the time. You opened from the button, so his 3-bet range is likely pretty wide (especially since you said you had been active on the table). He's likely c-betting with his whole range on the flop (or close to it). So when we push, he's folding a significant amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
"calling range" implies that he calls everytime, doesn't it?

but as stated earlier i think his calling range might be significantly tighter, to the point where we only have about 30% equity (a bit extreme, maybe) - see my earlier pokerstove.

what it boils down to is: when we shove and he calls, we're most likely way behind or about a coinflip. but when we shove and he folds we win what's already in the pot. so he must have a wide enough c-betting range that he has a weak hand often enough for our shove to be profitable.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]

Exactly how often is up for debate, but suppose he folds only 10% of the time. There's 92 in the pot, so we'd get +9.2 in EV from pushing just from the 1 in 10 times he folds. Most player are going to be folding a lot more than this in a button vs blind situation. If we're close to EV neutral when he calls, and that seems to be the case here, then the fold equity we get from pushing is just printing money.

[/ QUOTE ]

fold equity implies that he folds a hand that beats us, right? i really don't see him do so in this situation.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

you aren't getting it. We are ahead a TON here, and when we are behind we have good outs. The only 2 hands that suck are KK and AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
you aren't getting it. We are ahead a TON here, and when we are behind we have good outs. The only 2 hands that suck are KK and AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

And of course the A/K high flush.

[ QUOTE ]
fold equity implies that he folds a hand that beats us, right? i really don't see him do so in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fold equity we gain is also hands which have a significant equity in the pot which have to fold when we push.

But the main reason to push is to get hands with very little equity against us to call. For example TT with a diamond. AJ without a diamond.

Also, we are not sure whether we want to see a diamond or not, so we could make a very big mistake by calling whereas by shoving we are definitely making G-bucks.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

You've gotta shove here, though I'm not as happy about it as some of the other posters in this thread. Just calling is terrible -- if a diamond comes off, you're not going to get any more money if you're ahead, and you'll get stacked if behind. If an A or K comes, you'll often fold the best hand. If an A or K or diamond doesn't come, you'll get stacked by hands that beat you and won't get more money from anything that you're beating, except possibly AJ.

Shoving is for hand protection, value, and as a semibluff. This sounds a little counterintuitive, but you need to charge draws (which are generally not folding because they also have at least an overcard, but it's still better to get their money in now), and many villains will fold KK no diamond to your shove (whether they are right to do so is another question, but it's actually not a terrible fold imo). You also avoid losing to AK no diamond when a non-diamond A or K comes off, though obv this is only 4 outs.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold equity implies that he folds a hand that beats us, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. It's just the portion of our total EV that comes from the times he folds.

Mathematically, our EV can be decomposed into fold equity (how much we can expect to win when he folds) and pot equity (how much we can expect to win when he calls), which are weighted by the probability that villain folds or calls, respectively.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

fwiw yad, I would never fold black KK here against a TAG, but I dont think its that bad either.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
"calling range" implies that he calls everytime, doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah, it's pointless to do pot equity calcs which include hands that aren't calling our shove.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

Anyone else 4bet this and call a shove preflop?


I think we have SB's 3betting range crushed.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

thats not a reason to 4bet

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

he is pretty nitty, but over a small sample size, i would probably just shove.

calling is more difficult, because as you say you don't know where you are in the hand. i think that when you don't know where you are you should probably fold, or raise (shove). you don't know which outs are clean etc.

overall here, i think your hand is big enough to shove, i pokerstoved against his range (TT+, AQo, AQs) and you have 60% equity

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
you aren't getting it. We are ahead a TON here, and when we are behind we have good outs. The only 2 hands that suck are KK and AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously i don't get it!

i assume this is what he calls our shove with:

Board: Jd 3d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.899% 29.31% 01.59% 5803 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 69.101% 67.51% 01.59% 13367 315.00 { JJ+, AdKd, AcKd, AdKh, AdKs }


so everytime he calls, we lose $70 in equity. (have i calculated this correctly?)
each time he folds, we collect $92 from the pot.

meaning he hast to fold a bit less than half of the times for our shove to be +ev. so his c-betting range has to include almost twice as many hands as his "call a shove" range. this might very well be the case, but again, i don't see how it could include like 4 times as many hands, making a shove "hugely +ev".

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

pls shove...you have an overpair and the Qd.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

Fingers, your calling range is too tight. Add TTd, AJ at least...and take into account that we win the pot a lot right there.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fingers, your calling range is too tight. Add TTd, AJ at least...and take into account that we win the pot a lot right there.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're probably right. his range might even include some very "loose" holdings because he might just be fed up with me stealing the blinds and being aggressive.

Re: QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)
 

I could imagine him calling with some underpairs with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (TT/99, maybe lower)