Hurricane Dean Thread
 

Hurricane Dean is now south of Puerto Rico with sustained winds of 150 mph and will be a Cat 5 very shortly. Most models state that it will make landfall in northern Mexico but its still a ways out and there is a decent chance it will make landfall in TX or Louisiana. I'm sure those of you who live on the Gulf are aware of this storm but no matter where you live you should fill up your gas tank this weekend. Because oil production in the Gulf will cease and there is a chance it could wipe out the refineries around Houston.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

omg ship IT

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

If this thing hits New Orleans and the city floods again you can seriously kiss the city good bye. Nobody would come back.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

For the United States, it will all depend on whether or not Dean goes through the straight between Mexico and Cuba. If it does this then somewhere along the Gulf Coast is in REALLY big trouble.

It looks right now like it will clip the Yucatan Peninsula which is a good thing for the U.S., but obviously a horrible thing for Cancun and Cozumel which if the forecast stands will take a direct hit. Of course, the forecast usually changes from day to day as they can't accurately judge these things quite yet.

Ryan

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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If this thing hits New Orleans and the city floods again you can seriously kiss the city good bye. Nobody would come back.

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New Orleans should be completely spared unless this thing takes a massive right turn, which isn't forecast. I'd be real worried if I lived in Texas, though.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

About to make direct hit to Jamaica. That island looks like it's going to get wrecked to pieces.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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About to make direct hit to Jamaica. That island looks like it's going to get wrecked to pieces.

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Yeah, I was just in Negril and it didn't look like there were many homes/structures that could withstand anywhere near CAT 4 type winds/rain.. not looking too good for Jamaica

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This isn't the ******Official Hurricane D-E-A-N to the Super Bowl****** thread but I'll post in it anyway.

Cruel Sirius radio, I was just listening to it and Super Shuffle dusted off that old Stephen Bishop song "On and On" that starts with "Down in Jamaica they've got lots of pretty women". I hope some of those broads are mermaids.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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Hurricane Dean is now south of Puerto Rico with sustained winds of 150 mph and will be a Cat 5 very shortly. Most models state that it will make landfall in northern Mexico but its still a ways out and there is a decent chance it will make landfall in TX or Louisiana. I'm sure those of you who live on the Gulf are aware of this storm but no matter where you live you should fill up your gas tank this weekend. Because oil production in the Gulf will cease and there is a chance it could wipe out the refineries around Houston.

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Not sure where you're getting your info, but even the Spaghetti Model outliers don't pose a large threat to Houston.

Stop with the scare-mongering.

http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/4193/modelsra0.gif

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About to make direct hit to Jamaica. That island looks like it's going to get wrecked to pieces.

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How will they be able to tell the difference?

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I live in TX and I don't really give a [censored]. It's been raining every other day forever anyway.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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I live in TX and I don't really give a [censored]. It's been raining every other day forever anyway.

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Except for those couple days last week when it was 105 with 0mph wind!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I love it here.

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I would like Dean to begin referring to himself as 'Hurricane Dean' in all correspondence from here on out, TY in advance.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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I would like Dean to begin referring to himself as 'Hurricane Dean' in all correspondence from here on out, TY in advance.

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I have always taken a certain satisfaction in knowing that my named hurricane killed a ton of people and wreaked havoc (hurricane Mitch).

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This sucks so much. My gf and I are going on a cruise a week from tomorrow -- leaving from Galveston and going to Cozumel, Costa Maya, Progresso, etc.

So even if the weather clears up 8 days from now, every port we're going to is going to be wiped out.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

The Yucatan finished cleaning up from the last time they got blasted not too long ago.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

Looks like the 11:00 update just came out and the forecast trajectory is a little bit west of where it was before. Still very close to Cozumel, though. This is good news for Texas.

Edit: even the GFDL model which had it hitting the US earlier doesn't have it hitting the US. Looks like the States will miss this one.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

Currently, the NHC has Houston at an 8% chance of getting tropical storm force winds in the next five days, and Brownsville at a 26% chance, with a 5% chance of hurricane force winds.

All of that, of course, is subject to change.

NHC wind probabilities

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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About to make direct hit to Jamaica. That island looks like it's going to get wrecked to pieces.

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How will they be able to tell the difference?

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Go eff yourself, Blarg.

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This sucks so much. My gf and I are going on a cruise a week from tomorrow -- leaving from Galveston and going to Cozumel, Costa Maya, Progresso, etc.

So even if the weather clears up 8 days from now, every port we're going to is going to be wiped out.

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Cancellation insurance?

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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About to make direct hit to Jamaica. That island looks like it's going to get wrecked to pieces.

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How will they be able to tell the difference?

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Go eff yourself, Blarg.

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Seriously, just an awful joke. But hey at least it wasn't another rambling, obtuse diatribe on something about which no one gives a [censored]. Step in the right direction I say.

J

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

Joker, if any of your ports are destroyed by the Hurricane, the ship will just stop somewhere else. Your trip should still continue.

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The updated models have a very similar projected course except the CONU and it's pointed straight for The Big Easy.

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/2344/modelseq1.gif

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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The updated models have a very similar projected course except the CONU and it's pointed straight for The Big Easy.



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Jerry Falwell said God still had it in for the heathens in New Orleans and is going to finish them off this time.

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Jerry Falwell said God still had it in for the heathens in New Orleans and is going to finish them off this time.

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http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6553/modelsri3.gif

The Big Easy will be spared by all models.

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gas prices could be going up to, yes?

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gas prices could be going up to, yes?

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I hope it doesn't go up to yes. I'd have to walk everywhere.

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gas prices could be going up to, yes?

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Doesn't look like it unless it follows the CONU model, which is the only one that is pointed at Houston. The rest of the projections have it staying out of the Gulf almost completely. Doesn't look like production or refining operations will be affected. Dancing at Senor Frog's may be affected, though.

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somewhere my mom thought she heard that they were already evacuating some of the refineries but she might have heard that incorrectly.

Regardless, it can effect the barges that carry the petrol around too.
Not really sure. Guess we'll see.

I'm in Panama City, FL now which is way up in the panhandle. This one is thankfully going to miss us.
So we're still looking forward to our first official evacuation.

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gas prices could be going up to, yes?

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Doesn't look like it unless it follows the CONU model, which is the only one that is pointed at Houston. The rest of the projections have it staying out of the Gulf almost completely. Doesn't look like production or refining operations will be affected. Dancing at Senor Frog's may be affected, though.

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Do you think that really matters though?

Shell exec:

oh man, a butterfly farted in NY, TIME TO JACK UP THE PRICES!!!! WOOHOO!

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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gas prices could be going up to, yes?

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Doesn't look like it unless it follows the CONU model, which is the only one that is pointed at Houston. The rest of the projections have it staying out of the Gulf almost completely.

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That might not matter. The hurricane has already pushed up the price of petroleum futures, which is going to be reflected in gasoline prices.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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gas prices could be going up to, yes?

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Doesn't look like it unless it follows the CONU model, which is the only one that is pointed at Houston. The rest of the projections have it staying out of the Gulf almost completely.

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That might not matter. The hurricane has already pushed up the price of petroleum futures, which is going to be reflected in gasoline prices.

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Briefly, but with the storm skirting to the south, I image that the futures will open significantly lower on Monday and if not, they'll ease down by Wednesday. That's barring an unexpected northward turn in the stupid thing.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

One interesting part of the projected path is that it's headed straight for southern Mexico, which has been under severe drought all summer. The area hasn't had a tropical storm since '05.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

Since my original home is in Houston I am watching this hurricane. We won't know the true expected landfall till prob Tuesday when it is close enough to shore.

This hurricane is probably going to get really big while it churns in the gulf.

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I live in south Texas. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Pretty worried. Might have to leave home for a few days.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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I live in south Texas. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Pretty worried. Might have to leave home for a few days.

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I don't get it. According to the image hosted in this link (not sure if that's static or if they update it), it's not going to be hurricane-strength when it hits the coast and it's projected to miss Texas for the most part anyway. Are tropical storms worth evacuating whole cities over? I have no idea.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

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I live in south Texas. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Pretty worried. Might have to leave home for a few days.

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I don't get it. According to the image hosted in this link (not sure if that's static or if they update it), it's not going to be hurricane-strength when it hits the coast and it's projected to miss Texas for the most part anyway. Are tropical storms worth evacuating whole cities over? I have no idea.

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The map I saw still has south Texas in the projected path, though it looks likely that it will miss, at least directly. If we do get hit dead on I'm sure an evacuation will be called. The area I live in is elevated and we don't often have flooding issues. The problem with south Texas is there's alot of poor areas where flooding occurs with a simple hard downpour, so you can imagine what hurricane rains would do to the area. Sustained winds of 145mph scares me.

I hate storms and that's the reason why I'm thinking of leaving. I have good friends in Austin I can stay with so it sort of gives me a little mini-vacation.

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I live in south Texas. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Pretty worried. Might have to leave home for a few days.

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I don't get it. According to the image hosted in this link (not sure if that's static or if they update it), it's not going to be hurricane-strength when it hits the coast and it's projected to miss Texas for the most part anyway. Are tropical storms worth evacuating whole cities over? I have no idea.

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Of the 19 models, 5 are hitting brownsville, 2 houston and 12 are hitting mexico.

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread
 

this thread is worthless w/o pics -

http://image.weather.com/images/maps...us_600x405.jpg

http://msnbcmedia2.msn.com/j/afp/was....rp420x400.jpg

http://www.foxnews.com/photoessay/ph..._dean_nasa.jpg
http://www.foxnews.com/photoessay/ph..._Jamaica_2.jpg

http://www.foxnews.com/photoessay/ph..._Jamaica_4.jpg

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Internat...070819_ssh.jpg

Re: Hurricane Dean Thread