You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a nit
 

I know, I know, everyone hates these hands, and the answer is to never fold a set blah blah blah. But...

Villain is a nit. We've played a couple hundred hands, and his stats are 18/10/1.5. Has gotten out of line not once that I have noticed. Does his range here consist of a single hand other than 77? I'm serious. There's a flush draw, but the only combo draw is 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and this villain doesn't call preflop with that from OOP. I can't see him b3b'ing a naked flush draw. Q7 and Q4 are pretty much out of the question. He doesn't 3bet shove indicating that he wants a call...

Would it be terrible to fold to the 3bet, and if so why?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

<u>hippopotamouse: $251.25</u>
MaLibba: $200.00
SICK_TILT: $929.48
<u>Hero: $235.35</u>
PePeroni_: $197.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
SICK_TILT folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, PePeroni_ folds, hippopotamouse calls $7.00, MaLibba folds

Flop: ($18) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">hippopotamouse bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $40.00</font>, <font color="red">hippopotamouse raises to $118.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $227.35</font>, hippopotamouse calls $109.35

Turn: ($472.70) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($472.70) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $472.70 ($2 Rake)

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

nvr evr

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

You neglected to mention AKhh for the flush draw.

With a strong enough read you can fold, but barring live tells/nittitude or way more than a few hundred hands on him or being a lot deeper a fold would be bad.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]
You neglected to mention AKhh for the flush draw.

With a strong enough read you can fold, but barring live tells/nittitude or way more than a few hundred hands on him or being a lot deeper a fold would be bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

AhKh raises preflop pretty much 100%. The number of hands thing is a fair point, though. That consideration was how I lived with the shove.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

ez fold with those stats...

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]

AhKh raises preflop pretty much 100%

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno I'm always surprised by how often these guys just call with AKs and stuff like JJ or QQ, but you were at the table with him so your read on him is what we have to go by.

As for the number of hands it really takes a lot to get a solid read on a player. Several times today nits were calling pf OOP with complete trash and looking me up with bottom pair.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

Petty you posted that you shoved.

Does he percieve you as making regular c-bets? Is he smart enough to know that you will c-bet and he can check-raise? Even tho he's a nit, does he really lead here with 77 on that flop? I mean given your read, it's easy to say why u can fold, but I still think you just need to get stacked here if he your coolered.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

AhKh raises preflop pretty much 100%

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno I'm always surprised by how often these guys just call with AKs and stuff like JJ or QQ, but you were at the table with him so your read on him is what we have to go by.

As for the number of hands it really takes a lot to get a solid read on a player. Several times today nits were calling pf OOP with complete trash and looking me up with bottom pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right with this. I think the fact we're not omniscient is the reason you never fold a set on the flop. The read just has to be so strong... Look at his line, though!

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

Yeah his 3bet is so small that it screams set, but I can also see 65hh and AKhh some retarded KK/AA too.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a nit
 

***** Hand History for Game 6234594744 *****
$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, August 13, 14:02:32 ET 2007
Table Table 125551 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: petca_946 ( $99 USD )
Seat 1: TormII ( $118.48 USD )
Seat 5: hippopotamouse ( $99.50 USD )
Seat 3: NeedMNY4Food ( $203 USD )
Seat 2: jaunpaul29 ( $91.21 USD )
Seat 6: FTS_Poker ( $98.88 USD )
petca_946 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
hippopotamouse posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TormII [ Ac Ad ]
FTS_Poker folds.
TormII raises [$4 USD]
jaunpaul29 calls [$4 USD]
&gt;You have options at Table 128358 Table!.
NeedMNY4Food raises [$17 USD]
petca_946 folds.
hippopotamouse raises [$49 USD]
TormII is all-In.
jaunpaul29 folds.
NeedMNY4Food folds.
hippopotamouse is all-In.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 2c, 7s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
hippopotamouse shows [ Jc, 8c ]a pair of Fives.
TormII shows [ Ac, Ad ]two pairs, Aces and Fives.
TormII wins $18.98 USD from side pot #1 with two pairs, Aces and Fives.
TormII wins $217.50 USD from the main pot with two pairs, Aces and Fives.
#Game No : 6234597601

I have him as 20/15 with an AF of 2.78 over 120 hand fwiw. I don't think I'd ever lay a set down vs this guy tbh.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

^- hahaha awesome

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

EDIT: deleted - my mistake

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

I guess when it comes to sample size, size really does matter [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

LoL. At first I didn't realize the AA posted hand had the same villain and was loving the awesome hijack. Still a nice little brag. Btw, I'm not good enough to fold sets with these stack sizes.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

No where near deep enough to fold a set on that board. I'd need more than a couple of hundred mined hands to even think twice before I get it all in.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]
No where near deep enough to fold a set on that board. I'd need more than a couple of hundred mined hands to even think twice before I get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hands weren't mined, and they were all from today which added to my superconfidence he was a straightforward nit.

Good to see I made some g-bucks.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

I've played with some nittiest of nits, and even the nittiest of nits are capable of pushing strong draws.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

If you're thinking of folding when he 3bets don't raise the flop.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're thinking of folding when he 3bets don't raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting point.

I guess when I raised I was expecting a call/fold. Is it bad to raise if he'll push sets and not much else, but call with KQ and QJ?

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

I don't think he usually leads KQ, QJ hands usually.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

You are looking at 76hh/54hh and 77 here a majority of the time. Even nits sometimes do random stupid [censored] and he might push weaker draws also means you probably have to call.

Would kind of expect him to push these draws more often than just raising to 118. Yucky spot, one of those push and expect to be coolered spots. And then more often than you would think the pot gets showed to you and you have to look in the HH to see what he spazzed out with.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

His pf and aggression stats are fine and reliable after a few houndred hands. They converge very fast.

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

Would you fold AA here?

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]
No where near deep enough to fold a set on that board. I'd need more than a couple of hundred mined hands to even think twice before I get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: You never fold a set on the flop, right? Even bottom set against a
 

[ QUOTE ]

His pf and aggression stats are fine and reliable after a few houndred hands. They converge very fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

This definitely isn't true of aggression. And I was referring to OPs read that this guy always has a set here. It takes way more than a few hundred played hands to have that read.