Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

I have a tight table image. All of my pushes are folded to. Should I let the short stack take the bb before I submit to what likely is a coin toss?


Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB (t2080)
Hero (t3550)
UTG (t3400)
Button (t4470)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4470 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t5070

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

SnGPT says fold unless you think the big stack is pushing very wide. He might be though, so reads would be helpful of course.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

Instacall...unless the game is a total zoo.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

You're unsuited...gotta fold. jk jk

You'd rather be the pusher than the pushee...just fold and wait for a better opportunity.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall...unless the game is a total zoo.

[/ QUOTE ]

chip,

could youy explain your reasoning for going against SNG Wiz here??

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

This is an easy fold and a very important principle to learn in STTs. AK is a crappy calling hand on the bubble until the blinds get very high. Especially if you are not the shorty.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

[ QUOTE ]

I have a tight table image. All of my pushes are folded to. Should I let the short stack take the bb before I submit to what likely is a coin toss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh? The short stack didn't raise. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

Instant fold i think this maybe a fold against atc (obv not checked) but against any reasonable range for an unknown this is a fold.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

i never understood why calling here is so bad.
we play to win right? if the button is a solid player he pushes very wide knowing we cant call with most hands.
very often he has Ax or Kx.
he could have a pair in the worst case against which we have a flip.
i think this is one of the rare situations where icm should be ignored.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

[ QUOTE ]
i never understood why calling here is so bad.
we play to win right? if the button is a solid player he pushes very wide knowing we cant call with most hands.
very often he has Ax or Kx.
he could have a pair in the worst case against which we have a flip.
i think this is one of the rare situations where icm should be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

care to give a normal answer? i really want to know why its such a insta fold.
just how can this be a fold against ATC? we dominate any A and any K badly, we are like 65:35 against random lifecards and we have a flip against a pp.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

empyrium : because this is the bubble and you need a much much better hand than usual to call.

* you are currently in good positino
* if you win you are in better position but not garanteed the win
* if you loose you get nothing

So you really need much much more than a 50/50 to call.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

Harrington Vol. III, workbook, has several hands covering bubble play in one table tourneys. The consensus of these hands is you need to be very strong, AA or KK only. However he does have one hand where hero is also short-stacked and he recommends JJ-AA and AK suited. I am folding here.

This is predicated on villain pushing any pair, any Ace, KJ or better,suited or unsuited and QJ or bettter suited or unsuited.

Eva

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

hm ok, looks like i found a leak here, thanks for the explanations

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

I'm calling this normally but if the villain is nitty, I can fold. Here's the rational.

1) If he's pushing &gt;30% of his hands, this is a call based strickly on ICM with sklansky hand ranks. (min edge 0.2)
2) Your hand should stack up against his pushing range better than the 30% of the sklansky range because his range will be weighted to As and Ks.
3) If you win, you're in super pwning territory. You have two ATC pushes coming up after showing a big hand. This will lead to tighter ranges because of that and the new shortie you just created.
4) You have the opportunity to enter ITM with a dominating stack with BBs that are greater than 1/10th the closest stack size. This allows for easy pushes ITM.

All of these factors make this a call I make all day.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Instacall...unless the game is a total zoo.

[/ QUOTE ]

chip,

could youy explain your reasoning for going against SNG Wiz here??

[/ QUOTE ]

If the CLer is playing properly, he's going to be owning the bubble and picking up pretty much every pot uncontested (obviously since people want to fold AK). If we look several hands down the road, stacks will likely be something like this: UTG 2k, Button 8k, SB 1k, Hero 2k and this is assuming shorty hasn't doubled up. Instead of getting destroyed like this and rolling the dice for 2nd, 3rd &amp; 4th, we should call with the AK, win a large portion of the time, become the chip leader and now we wreck the bubble.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

I don't really have anything to bring to the table in this discussion, but this is very eye opening for me. I normally insta-call in these situations, although I have never ran the ICM calc on it. I had assumed this was an easy call.

Please keep this discussion going, as I find it extremely interesting.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

exactly what chipchucker said...looks like its no bad play after all.
you are definitely way more often ahead than behind if you call and you dont play for a 3rd or 2nd place but to own the bubble and get 1st.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

Can someone tell me what the hard numbers are on this call...my free trials on sngpt and wiz ran out a couple weeks ago and i am too much of a nit to purchase right now. I just want to know what the -% is and how -$EV it is just to see if we are only giving up a little to potentially pwn teh bubble.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

This is the second AK call in the BB on the bubble post in 2 days. People should calculate the ICM themselves rather then just posting and looking to see if they made a correct fold/call.

If you do not have SNGPT or SNGWIZ do it by hand with pokerstove/excel &amp; ICM calculator.

I also think that doing it by hand is better if you do not really understand ICM rather then just buying the tools and saying "well Program says its a call so call". Once you have it figuerd then play with stacks and call/ranges and other things to get a much better understanding.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

Somewhere around a 30% range, this call becomes slightly +EV but never more than 0.67% (vs 40%).

But it could be very bad if vilain is on less than 20%.

Re: Full Tilt 22s AK on bubble vs all in
 

10% (66+,ATo+,A8s+,KJs+) = -3.2%
15% (55+,A9o+,A5s+,KJo+,K9s+,QJs) = -1.5%
20% (55+,A7o+,A3s+,K9o+,K8s+,QJo,QTs+) = -.4%
25% (44+,A5o+,A2s+,K9o+,K7s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs) = -.2%
30% (44+,A3o+,A2s+,K8o+,K5s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,J9s+) = +.2%
80% (22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,94o+,92s+,85o+,83s+,75o+, 74s+,64s+,54s) = +.5%
100% = +.4%

Edit to add -

Like Rex said, the negative amounts can be extremely negative so you really need to be sure he is pushing wide or you could be making a very large mistake.

And add in this range which is very reasonable for a casual SnG player -
22+,A2+,KT+,QT+,JT+ = -.3%