$30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

villain is a 2p2er, but we haven't played before, and we haven't interacted much at this table, which i've been on for a few orbits. I've probably been fairly active but other than that not sure how he sees me (perhaps he can clarify [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $37.05
BB: $52.00
UTG: $56.85
CO: $60.00
Hero (BTN): $28.85

CO posts $0.30
Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.35</font>, SB calls $1.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.30) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.35</font>, SB calls $2.35

Turn: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero?

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

BEAT: You're both sitting $30 deep at a $60 BI

Ummm, as far as the hand goes.....figure out his flop calling range and turn folding/calling range.

If we were 200bb deep I'd prolly bet b/c I want to build a pot in case I hit the nizzies.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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Ummm, as far as the hand goes.....figure out his flop calling range and turn folding/calling range.

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yep. if i could do that i wouldn't have posted the hand. thoughts for a standard 2p2er?

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

check against normal 2+2'er

I really think that he prolly has 33, 77, KQ, AQ, or 88-99

Just realize that it was a rainbow board and I don't give NL30'ers much credit for calling OOP with mid PPs that make 2nd pair.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

i would check. dry flop, no scare on turn, and your BFD/gutshot is disguised, so you have implied odds.

edit: actually, i might like a bet to build the pot.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

id do another PSB on that turn, implied odds dont give you his stack, not when the pot is 8 $ thats the way i see it plus he checked to you so mb hes weak and will fold right then and there cuz he thought you cbet and he has PP weaker than Q

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

Meh, so much 'feel' here, 'metagame' 'shania' '2p2 playback factor'

Why on earth would you play the deepstack games, short?

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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check against normal 2+2'er

I really think that he prolly has 33, 77, KQ, AQ, or 88-99



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thanks. everyone like this range? what about QJ?

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Just realize that it was a rainbow board and I don't give NL30'ers much credit for calling OOP with mid PPs that make 2nd pair.

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Not quite sure what you mean here...



i think against a random unl player this is a clear check (low FE, good implied odds).

against a 2p2er the dry flop has got to strengthen his range a bit. assuming he's equally likely to check-call with sets and one pair hands, i get 6 set combos, 24 top pair combos and 12 pp combos for 42 combos total using jonny's range.


my equity against that range is ~30%. Equity on <font color="red">checking</font> is therefore $8 * .30 + implied odds = $2.4 + implied odds

If i <font color="red">bet</font> he'll fold 88-99 100%, fold KQ and lower queens lets say 50% and call 50% and he'll always call with AQ. He'll always shove with sets.

let's bet $5.5.

I think 12 (pps) + 6 (50% KQ) = folds 42%+ of his range.

so $8 * 0.42 = +$3.36 (or more)

if he calls it's basically breakeven + implied odds ($19 * 0.28 - $5.5 = -$0.16).

if he checkraises all in it will be $19.65 / $57.2 = 34% so i have to fold, losing $5.5. this should happen with sets 14% (6/42) of the time. 0.14 * $5.5 = -$0.78.

$3.36 + implied odds - $0.78 = $2.58 + implied odds

so in immediate EV terms this is very close given our assumptions!

betting leaves me with about $9 into a $19 pot, so i'd estimate my implied odds at about $7ish.

checking leaves the pot at $8, but he'll probably call a psb with most of his range, so again about $7ish.

(edit: except that when we bet we only get the implied odds 44% of the time, but get them 100% of the time when we check. does that shade it to a check then?)


if anyone wants to check that my method for working this out is correct that would be helpful (and probably useful for you).

any thoughts on the assumptions? (eg. does he cr AQ much?)

more generally, i think it's worth spending time thinking about these borderline cases, so then if any factors change we'll have a much better idea which line to take.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

No idea about all your odds talk, but i bet here.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

betting here is good because him having a big hand is tough

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

who is villian?

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

I doubt he folds a pair here.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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who is villian?

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you.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

I'll have to look in my db and find this hand...can't remember it off hand and I have no idea why I'm sitting short [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

fwiw my only note on you is: "wide pf raise range- autocbets heads up" - so I doubt I fold a pair here and in fact you might get c/r'ed if you bet this turn.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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fwiw my only note on you is: "wide pf raise range- autocbets heads up" - so I doubt I fold a pair here and in fact you might get c/r'ed if you bet this turn.

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This is why I dont like doubling here. The only big hands you can credibly have here are sets and AQ which represent a miniscule part of your range. Of his calling range I would expect all pairs to call and even some broadway hands which may put you on a double and try to take you on the river.

The thing about dry boards is that though they are unlikely to have hit your opponent they are unlikely to have hit you as well, therefore the only hands you can be betting are the ones that you are going to go three streets with or c/r the river with. In other words, hands that are going to see a showdown. So IMO the question here is not whether you want to double, its whether you want to triple, because you can definitely expect a call on the turn a LOT here, and if you check the river you can often expect a bet (or even a check behind for SD which you will lose most of the time)

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

He cant really have anything strong here if he is any good. I would be very surprised to see anything but TT-88, even TT is a stretch. But the thing is he is not folding it on a blank so don't even try, just hit your outs.

ps Hint: 2+2'er on your left. I change tables.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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But the thing is he is not folding it on a blank so don't even try

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Crucial. It doesnt matter if he is strong because just about his whole range is strong atm. What matters is if he will fold.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

wow you think he wouldn't fold an under pair to a two barrel? possibly not given AZ's note on me, but that's pretty bad news long term IMO.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

He has TPGK here most of the time and a medium pair here some of the time. Out of position I would assume a 2p2er would raise a set?? I think your fold equity is low because the 2d doesn't change anything for the villain. If he was willing to call the flop he's probably willing to call the turn. I would check behind to try and hit your draws.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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wow you think he wouldn't fold an under pair to a two barrel? possibly not given AZ's note on me, but that's pretty bad news long term IMO.

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results?

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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wow you think he wouldn't fold an under pair to a two barrel? possibly not given AZ's note on me, but that's pretty bad news long term IMO.

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Not really. Its pretty bad to make a flop call based on a read and then fold blank turn to a second barrel. If I put you on air on the flop, I will call you turn bet and your river push. Sometimes I read wrong, sometimes you catch some card on the river, but usually I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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Out of position I would assume a 2p2er would raise a set?? I think your fold equity is low because the 2d doesn't change anything for the villain.

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I think on a flop this dry facing he someone he apparently sees as aggressive there is no need to raise with a set.

The dry turn card was one reason I decided to two barrel. That might have been a bit advanced, but making a read that I am cbetting on the flop and then calling two more barrels is absolutely disasterous IMO.


results:

i took a while to work out what to do, and in the end decided to bet. i made a slightly weaksauce $5 bet cos I was running out of time and got check-raised to $16. I was struggling a bit with the odds cos someone was talking but I eventually folded. I possibly got pwned given small cr and could have called given my implied odds (I was getting 27% pot odds).

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

Boz, you had a tiny positive equity here without considering the implied odds. Like literally, half a percent or even less.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

i know, what's the problem?

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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i know, what's the problem?

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you made a bet with no pot equity and no fold equity

thats a problem

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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i know, what's the problem?

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Why did you fold then? A call was profitable.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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i know, what's the problem?

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Why did you fold then? A call was profitable.

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are you levelling or something? you're not making much sense.

yes a call was profitable given my implied odds but i wasn't able to calculate it at the time.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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i know, what's the problem?

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you made a bet with no pot equity and no fold equity

thats a problem

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you know thats not right, and it's also not the problem he was referring to.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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i know, what's the problem?

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Why did you fold then? A call was profitable.

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are you levelling or something? you're not making much sense.

yes a call was profitable given my implied odds but i wasn't able to calculate it at the time.

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Call was profitable even without implied ones. If you miscalculated though its fine, happens.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

I looked up this hand in my db - I had K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - there would have been some serious wreckage if this hand made it to the river and a diamond peeled [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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I looked up this hand in my db - I had K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - there would have been some serious wreckage if this hand made it to the river and a diamond peeled [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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yeah Q+draw is the hand i never got round to mentioning in my posts but is definately a consideration.

i think i like yr play vs me, but i've lost quite a bit doing it against less aggro people.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

Calling with KQ OOP to a button raise is beyond me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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Calling with KQ OOP to a button raise is beyond me

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But they were soooooted [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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Calling with KQ OOP to a button raise is beyond me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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are you serious? its soooo easy to take it away post flop and KQs is a great hand for me both in and out of position

but yeah i guess 3bet is a little more standard, tho if they were actually deep as they should have been i think a call is fine

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

lol sorry i'm not rolled for $60nl!

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

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are you serious? its soooo easy to take it away post flop and KQs is a great hand for me both in and out of position

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Please tell me you are leveling.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

check the turn. unless he has a habit of calling one street than folding the next (ie. with something like 99 here).

lets think about his range abit. pf- his range is almost strictly pps/scs. i doubt there are many monsters (ie. AA/AK) or medium hands like KQ/etc. (though there might be).

flop-i would think he c/r-es his monsters and that his range is more geared towards hands who want to get to showdown. i would think either 88/99/etc here occassionally a Q and thats about it. as stated, i think he would c/r or donk a set and the like here.

so, i guess after rethinking a bit more, if you think you have a decent amt of FE (which, imo, you do), i would bet like $6.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

I wish I didn't see results, but I think this is AQ/KQ/QJ/set most of the time, and an underpair a smaller fraction of the time.

I think alot of the time you're getting set up for a CR here on the turn, with such a dry board.

Re: $30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?
 

slightly gratuitous bump to link this into PNL.

On page 134 in PNL there's a hand that's fairly similar (Hero picks up a flush draw to go along with his middle pair on a K72r board). Sunny and Matt suggest that if stacks are short you should bet (smaller implied odds, less concern about being cr) and if deep you should check. If Sunny or Matt see this, I was wondering how you'd approach this hand with various stack sizes?

Also, what do you think about betting when deep as a pot builder (like jonny said) vs checking to avoid getting check-raised? presumably with less of a cr threat you are more inclined to bet... any thoughts on how to judge the cross-over point with out doing a lot of maths?

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