English Premier League picks
 

System involves heavy quantitative and qualitative analysis, predominately the latter. We're mainly betting lower leagues but I will be posting EPL unless there's an interest elsewhere.

Pretty light card week one:

Saturday:
Portsmouth ML +140 (2)
Everton -0.75 -102
Tottenham -0.25 +100
Liverpool -0.5 +104

Sunday:
Birmingham City +1.75 -112
Manchester United -1.5 -104 (2)

Good luck!

Re: English Premier League picks
 

As I said in the previous EPL thread, I'm on Pompey ML and am considering Everton ML (I'd take the spread if I could). I'd lean Spurs in that game, but I don't like the Liverpool play. Good luck on day one.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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We're mainly betting lower leagues but I will be posting EPL unless there's an interest elsewhere.


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I'd be all for lower leagues and less EPL. Strange?

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Is Hanneman going to play for sure?

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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Is Hanneman going to play for sure?

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Who is Hanneman?

Re: English Premier League picks
 

I can only imagine he means Hahnemann for Reading. Not sure how much that matters, if at all.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

I suppose these will go in here then.

I'm on Pompey +145, Rovers +190, Everton -145, and Birmingham +1400. Next on the list would probably be Arsenal -300 against a very weak Fulham team but I'd want a little more before playing it myself. Again, these aren't system plays, those will take a couple weeks at best. Thoughts on any of these?

YTD Premiership: 0-0-0, +0.00u.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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I can only imagine he means Hahnemann for Reading. Not sure how much that matters, if at all.

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I've estimated Hahnemann as 70% to play but as you suspected, it makes little to no difference at this stage of the season.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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I suppose these will go in here then.

I'm on Pompey +145, Rovers +190, Everton -145, and Birmingham +1400. Next on the list would probably be Arsenal -300 against a very weak Fulham team but I'd want a little more before playing it myself. Again, these aren't system plays, those will take a couple weeks at best. Thoughts on any of these?

YTD Premiership: 0-0-0, +0.00u.

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I like your Pompey and Everton picks (obviously, given I'm on the same side). I don't love the Blackburn pick because I see this end a draw too often, though I lean a play at pk for +110.

I can't really see any value in the Birmingham pick. While Chelsea underwhelmed in pre-season and the Community Shield, they did manage to hold an impressive Man Utd side, and even without Terry, Bridge and Ballack, they are nothing if not efficient. Birmingham are going to be out of their depth in this division, and are not going to be the first team to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the league. I've estimated at Drogba at 30% and he alone is worth almost half a goal. I've taken the spread at +1.75, but as for value on Birmingham at +1400, it's too early to quantify. Gun to my head, 2-1 prediction.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Just done a $10 accumulator, all favourites though

Today,
West Ham 1/1
Everton 4/6
Liverpool 10/11
Celtic 4/9 (Scottish League)

Tomorrow,
Man utd(2/9), Chelsea(1/5) and Arsenal(3/10) all thrown in also, they all seem like certainties to me

The Portsmouth game is too tough to call for me, away from home on the opening day against a newly promoted team is gonna be a tough game for sure IMO

West Ham i think will beat Wigan at Upton Park after spending plenty of money in the summer i think even money is a great price for them

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Rovers over Boro, 5 units...

GL

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i've layed derby before the game. bet £500 to win £212.

come on pompy hold them off!!!!!!!!

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i've layed derby before the game. bet £500 to win £212.

come on pompy hold them off!!!!!!!!

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woot. FT 2-2

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Ugh, awful show by Pompey.

Blackburn managed to come from behind though, and Everton won as expected.

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what does pompy +145 mean? sorry i don't understand how it works.

ty if you can help

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Bet 100 Win 145

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sigh... West Ham cost me my bet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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what does pompy +145 mean? sorry i don't understand how it works.

ty if you can help

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It's the same as taking Pompey minus half a goal. They have to win the game to get your payout (as opposed to a typical moneyline, for example, where if the game ends in a draw your wager is refunded).

Edit: I've had a change of heart on Arsenal -300. I'm taking it for tomorrow.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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Edit: I've had a change of heart on Arsenal -300. I'm taking it for tomorrow.

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I'm with you on this one, though I generally don't like giving up this much chalk. Adding Arsenal -300.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Fulham +0.5 for me, 2 units...

GL

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Wow, Arsenal squeak by in characteristic fashion.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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I can only imagine he means Hahnemann for Reading. Not sure how much that matters, if at all.

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I've estimated Hahnemann as 70% to play but as you suspected, it makes little to no difference at this stage of the season.

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And of course, Hahnemann comes up huge.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Not the start we'd hoped for, but we should be pleased that we're beating closing lines by a nice margin.

YTD: 3.5-3-0.5, -1.54 units

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Anyone wanna give odds on leeds ( league1) to avoid relegation?


( odds in english betting, dont understand the " american lines")

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forgot I bet LPool, bailed out on that one on the best free kick you'll see this year.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Stevie Gerrard is my hero

Re: English Premier League picks
 

I just took Manchester City -155 (again, 3-way). I'm eying both Pompey and Reading at home and Everton away. Not sure which I'll pull the trigger on.

Edit: Should add 3-2-0, +1.90u YTD in the Premiership.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Middlesbrough [+0.25] -111 worth a close look.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

My picks:
Everton +0.5 +104
Sunderland +0.50 -102
Man City -0.75 -108
Chelsea -0.75 -119
Middlesbrough +0.25 -108

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Just pulled the trigger on Everton +315 (man I need a better sportsbook).

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Adding:
Man Utd -0.75 -102

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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Just pulled the trigger on Everton +315 (man I need a better sportsbook).

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Good result here.

4-2-0, +5.05u.

I'm taking Pompey +450 at home, though I'd much rather be on the spread. I've also got Manchester City -155 from yesterday also at home.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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Just pulled the trigger on Everton +315 (man I need a better sportsbook).

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Good result here.

4-2-0, +5.05u.

I'm taking Pompey +450 at home, though I'd much rather be on the spread. I've also got Manchester City -155 from yesterday also at home.

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Pompey come up short with a 1-1 draw, but City win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 5-3-0, +5.05u still. I'm going to be on both teams again as well as Newcastle. Manchester City +365, Newcastle -115, Pompey -115.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Newcastle available at -102, that seems to be a very good line. Really like their chances, also like a draw between Liverpool and Chelsea, awaiting more moneylines to see where the line is at.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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Newcastle available at -102, that seems to be a very good line. Really like their chances, also like a draw between Liverpool and Chelsea, awaiting more moneylines to see where the line is at.

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Yeah, I'm stuck with stupid WSEX for soccer right now. Should change in a week or so :/ Enjoy -102.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

I notice Greek has comparatively good spreads for EPL so that is a good option for people who cant't use pinny.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

What is the deal with the 0.25 and 0.75 lines as opposed to just 0.5?

Re: English Premier League picks
 

Week 2 picks:

Saturday:
Portsmouth -0.5 -102
West Ham pk +128
Tottenham -1 +102
Sunderland ML +284
Newcastle -0.5 +102

Sunday:
Man Utd -0.5 +102
Arsenal -0.5 +137

Week: 3-2-1, +0.94u

YTD: 6.5-5-1.5, -0.60u

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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What is the deal with the 0.25 and 0.75 lines as opposed to just 0.5?

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Check an Asian handicap guide. Basically if you bet on a -0.25 line, you loose half if the match ends in a draw or if you take the +0.25 you win half of the bet in case of a draw.
Instead with the -0.75 line you win half of the bet if your team wins by one goal, full reward only with a victory of at least two goals. If you take the +0.75 line you win the full bet in case of a victory or a draw of your side and you loose only half if your team loose by just one goal.

Re: English Premier League picks
 

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Just pulled the trigger on Everton +315 (man I need a better sportsbook).

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Good result here.

4-2-0, +5.05u.

I'm taking Pompey +450 at home, though I'd much rather be on the spread. I've also got Manchester City -155 from yesterday also at home.

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Pompey come up short with a 1-1 draw, but City win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 5-3-0, +5.05u still. I'm going to be on both teams again as well as Newcastle. Manchester City +365, Newcastle -115, Pompey -115.

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Running well. 2-1, +3.50u. YTD 7-4-0, +8.55u. Stupid Barcodes.