Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

i'm in the BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

CO(22/12/3) open raises, fish button coldcalls(33/2/.5), sb folds, i call.

Flop(6.5sb): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i check, CO bets, fish calls, i call.

Turn(4.75bb): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

i check, CO bets, fish folds, i checkraise.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

I had to post because of your Avatar, which is awesome.

As for your check-raise...seems like a decent idea to me.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

You should bet this flop. I don't like the turn c/r because the CO is unlikely to fold his ace.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Is that high AF because he's dumb enough to 3bet KK here or because he's so fit-or-fold aggro that he's betting his entire range here and then folding everything worse than TPGK?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Are we at full ring or 6max here? 6max I'm probably going to reraise that preflop and play like I have AA the whole way. But the 22/12 part makes me think its FR.

Full ring, I usually like to checkraise the flop then lead/call the turn cos I think it disguises the hand better. Maybe that's me being too weak-tight not wanting to get 3bet on the turn with a flush and gutshot str8. Check/raising the turn probably requires a decent read on an opponent for me to make that play, I'd like some idea of how he's going to react before I make the move.

OOP sucks with draws!

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Full ring, I usually like to checkraise the flop

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me too.

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then lead/call the turn

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no, not here.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Is that high AF because he's dumb enough to 3bet KK here or because he's so fit-or-fold aggro that he's betting his entire range here and then folding everything worse than TPGK?

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what do you think?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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You should bet this flop.

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why should i bet the flop? why is betting better than c/c or c/r?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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I had to post because of your Avatar, which is awesome.

As for your check-raise...seems like a decent idea to me.

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you are an intelligent person in at least a couple respects. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

If I am CO, I don't ever ever ever fold an ace here. You better be prepared to barrel that river. I'd much rather c/r this flop in your spot.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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You should bet this flop.

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why should i bet the flop? why is betting better than c/c or c/r?

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c/c is the worst option. c/r is better, but it may get 3-bet if CO has a big ace. The pot isn't very big, and betting the flop is a cheap way to take down this shorthanded pot right now. CO may wet his/her pants/panties and fold a pocket pair. Then again, you may actually have the best hand on the flop. If your flop bet is called, continue to lead out regardless of the turn card, then check the river unimproved.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Checkraising the flop is so much better here. Fish's call could mean anything but your c/r of both fish and PFR says a lot more than a huhu flop checkraise would.

The problem with checkraising the turn is this is the kind of board where once he bets the turn he has a range of hands that almost never folds (i.e. hands that would fold to a turn c/r would have checked behind)

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

blackasthma,

my point was betting sucks. we bet, CO raises and we lose the fish. we check, CO bets, fish calls, we c/r is definitely my standard play here.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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If I am CO, I don't ever ever ever fold an ace here.

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nor would i necessarily expect him to. come on. you think he's only betting aces here?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws. Given the pot size and the number of outs you have to a redraw, this probably only needs to work a small percentage of the time, I'm wagering 10% or less. Someone else want to do the math?

To be honest, this question is just best done as math. If we can say that all we need is for him to fold XX% of the time and A3s/A2s/KK-JJ constitute that part of his range, this is easily a good play, because it doesn't even account for the times that a villain is willing to fold AJ/AQ.(PokerBob might not do it, but it happens). Less speculation, more math, KTHX.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Checkraising the flop is so much better here. Fish's call could mean anything but your c/r of both fish and PFR says a lot more than a huhu flop checkraise would.

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mostly true. for that reason i mostly agree.

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The problem with checkraising the turn is this is the kind of board where once he bets the turn he has a range of hands that almost never folds (i.e. hands that would fold to a turn c/r would have checked behind)

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this is not mostly true. he's plenty aggro enough to bet an ace, a pp, a draw or complete air in that spot.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

I don't like it much. You'd never take this line if you had an ace (would you really just check and call the flop if you could've gotten all that c/r value from the fish and the board has a flush draw on it and a possible straight draw? You're a TAG, you would go for the immediate value on a board with draws if you had an ace or a set. The only time you could play it this way is when you hit your straight on the turn), so why would he ever fold anything that beats you here? I usually call these weird check-raises out of curiosity. So you probably have the bet the river as well if you miss, and he is likely to call that as well.

I'd prefer the good old c/r flop, lead turn line. If you don't do that, I would just call the turn and give up UI. Perhaps that's weak.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Did this quick. I think the math is accurate. Feel free to critique:
Times he folds: +X(5.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you hit: +(100-X)(12/45)(7.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you don’t hit: -(100-X)(33/45)(2BB)

X=% of time he folds to your turn raise
5.75X+(100-X)2.07-(100-X)1.47
5.75X+207-2.07X-147+1.47X
5.15X+60
X=11.65%

If he folds 12% of the time, this play is good. The math ignores the times you get 3-bet by AA and the times he calls and you spike a K and beat his QQ/JJ for whatever reason, but those situation happen a small % of the time.

I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.

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Because math is just speculation expressed in numbers.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.

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Because math is just speculation expressed in numbers.

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I think you know what I mean, but let's not sidetrack the topic.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Grunch: I'm just c/ring the flop in this spot. Because the pot is protected on the flop, we can sell a made hand to the TAG way better by c/ring the flop. I like your line much better than c/c,c/c though.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

I don't see where you get 12% from, btw. Your expectation is always positive. You can compare it to a check/call though. I'm not sure about the pot sizes, I just took your numbers.

ev1 = P(f)*5.75 + (1-P(f)) * (12/45 * 7.75 + 33/45 * -2)
=> ev1 = P(f)*5.75 + (1-P(f))*0.6
=> ev1 = 5.15 * P(f) + 0.6

check/call:
ev2 = 12/45 * 6.75 + 33/45 * -1 = 1.8 - 0.73 = 1.07

ev2 = ev1 = 5.15 * P(f) + 0.6
=> P(f) = 0.467 / 5.15 = 0.09 = 9%.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Did this quick. I think the math is accurate. Feel free to critique:
Times he folds: +X(5.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you hit: +(100-X)(12/45)(7.75BB)
Times he doesn’t fold and you don’t hit: -(100-X)(33/45)(2BB)

X=% of time he folds to your turn raise
5.75X+(100-X)2.07-(100-X)1.47
5.75X+207-2.07X-147+1.47X
5.15X+60
X=11.65%

If he folds 12% of the time, this play is good. The math ignores the times you get 3-bet by AA and the times he calls and you spike a K and beat his QQ/JJ for whatever reason, but those situation happen a small % of the time.

I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE.

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I have no doubt that c/ring the turn is +EV, I just think c/ring the flop is more +EV.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Pot Sizes:
If you raise now and he folds, you win the 5.75BB that's in the pot
If you raise now and he calls and you hit, you win 7.75BB(5.75BB + his call on the raise + the bet he calls on the river)
If you raise now and he calls and you miss, you lose the 2 BB that you raised the turn with.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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I have no doubt that c/ring the turn is +EV, I just think c/ring the flop is more +EV.

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I think this point has merit. I think this reduces the action we get for the times we do hit though, given that the TAGs range is quite open and we only have a slight equity advantage 3 ways. It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

In any reasonably big pot even a pure bluff always seems +EV, and especially a semi-bluff you have some chance to draw out in the event he does call. It's just that these raw percentages are so difficult to interpret. The same happens with river calls: when are you really 12% ahead as opposed to 8%?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

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What? If the fish calls the turn bet, this c/r would be preposterous.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws

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Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands.

-McGee

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

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What? If the fish calls the turn bet, this c/r would be preposterous.

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HB: I'm not being clear. I'm saying people are saying we should c/r the flop because it "sells him the strength of our hand." All of this is after watching fish fold the turn, changing the mantality of the post to "how can we pick up the pot". C/R the flop might let us pick up the pot on a later street, but we shouldn't expect this result to happen often with a fish CCing with this range. We C/R the flop for value.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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I have no doubt that c/ring the turn is +EV, I just think c/ring the flop is more +EV.

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I think this point has merit. I think this reduces the action we get for the times we do hit though, given that the TAGs range is quite open and we only have a slight equity advantage 3 ways. It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

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While this is true, we should also note that the fish calling the turn dramatically reduces his chances of folding. A 33/2/.5 calls down too much, especially once he's put in a bet on a big street. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "reducing our action when we do hit". The way I see it, TAG and fish either have hands that will see showdown or they don't. If they don't, c/r the flop sells a made hand to the TAG and the fish will fold anyway. If they do, c/ring the flop ties them to the pot and we'll get action when we hit. Pls explain the reducing action comment.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws

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Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands.

-McGee

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Where do you see a read/history in the OP? I don't.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

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What? If the fish calls the turn bet, this c/r would be preposterous.

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HB: I'm not being clear. I'm saying people are saying we should c/r the flop because it "sells him the strength of our hand." All of this is after watching fish fold the turn, changing the mantality of the post to "how can we pick up the pot". C/R the flop might let us pick up the pot on a later street, but we shouldn't expect this result to happen often with a fish CCing with this range. We C/R the flop for value.

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Of course we are c/ring for value, but part of that value consists of fold equity. No?

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws

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Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands.

-McGee

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Where do you see a read/history in the OP? I don't.

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Well, we obviously can't get a read on James from the other player because the other player isn't posting.

Even if the villain doesn't have a read on James, to assume that he's folding an ace is ridiculous.

-McGee

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Of course we are c/ring for value, but part of that value consists of fold equity. No?

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Yes, because if both of them call, we are almost certainly behind and drawing and the flop has neutral EV. The gain comes from the few times they might fold, and the times we hit and they feel tied to the pot.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Even if the villain doesn't have a read on James, to assume that he's folding an ace is ridiculous.


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I wouldn't even fold a pocket pair like jacks here (plus I'd check that behind, so the fact that he bets means he is either going to showdown, or he has air. The only hands we might fold out positively are hands like KQ or KJ)

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

12% seems to be a good figure.


Assuming that if villain calls the turn raise you must hit your flush to win.

If you just call and will win one bet on the river if you hit your draw the EV is:

(9/46*6.75)+(37/46*-1) = +0.52 BB

Assuming that Villain will fold 12% of the time to your turn raise and will call half the time that you hit your draw on the river the EV is:

(12%*5.75) + (88%*9/46*7.25) +(88%*37/46*-2) = +0.52

edit: fixed mistakes

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

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Even if the villain doesn't have a read on James, to assume that he's folding an ace is ridiculous.


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I wouldn't even fold a pocket pair like jacks here (plus I'd check that behind, so the fact that he bets means he is either going to showdown, or he has air. The only hands we might fold out positively are hands like KQ or KJ)

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It should be noted, however, that folding out air isn't so bad here.

-McGee

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Ignore above. I did not see the GS but 12% still seems to be a good figure.

Assuming that if villain calls the turn raise you must hit your flush or GS to win.

If you just call and will win one bet on the river if you hit your draw the EV is:

(12/46*6.75)+(34/46*-1) = +1.02 BB

Assuming that Villain will fold 12% of the time to your turn raise and will call half the time that you hit your draw on the river the EV is:

(12%*5.75) + (88%*12/46*7.25) +(88%*34/46*-2) = +1.05

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

i'm assuming that if that guy calls a turn raise it is logical to assume he's calling a river bet all of the time.

call
(.26*6.75bb)+(.74*-1bb)=1.02bb

raise
if he folds 10%
(.10*5.75bb)+(.90*.26*7.75bb)+(.90*.74*-2)=1.06bb

if he folds 11%
(.11*5.75bb)+(.89*.26*7.75bb)+(.89*.74*-2)=1.10bb

if he folds 12%
(.12*5.75bb)+(.88*.26*7.75bb)+(.88*.74*-2)=1.16bb

so in the situation described if we can get the TAGish player to fold 10-12% of the time, our additional EV over just calling the turn bet ranges from .04bb(10%) to .14bb(12%).

this can make checkraising the turn the MORE profitable play versus alot of opponents similar to this guy.

Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
 

Are you planning to fire at the river if you miss and, if so, what would you believe the probability is that Villain would then fold? I ask because I am trying to work out the EV of that scenario.