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$25 NL facing a river raise
Villain's stats are 50/12/1
He hasn't gotten out of line, or has caught my attention so far. I'd also like to note this is a blind v blind battle, but we've never tangled with each other before Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) Hero (SB): $27.20 BB: $27.30 UTG: $24.65 MP: $32.40 CO: $29.30 BTN: $24.65 Preflop: Hero is dealt Qhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Ahttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif (6 Players) 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, BB calls $0.75 Flop: ($2) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Jhttp://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $1.75</font>, BB calls $1.75 Turn: ($5.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, BB calls $4.00 River: ($13.50) 2http://legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $10.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $20.00</font>, Crovax |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
Villain is never bluffing here.
Fold. |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
There's actually more to the hand than just what I should do, but there's actually a mistake I believe I made in the hand
Crovax |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
[ QUOTE ]
There's actually more to the hand than just what I should do, but there's actually a mistake I believe I made in the hand Crovax [/ QUOTE ] You can check call river, yes. |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
bump
Crovax |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
youre so beat on this river
villain probably has 10 8 for the nuts. congrats on donking into it 3 times check call the river after youve been smooth called twice |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
[ QUOTE ]
There's actually more to the hand than just what I should do, but there's actually a mistake I believe I made in the hand Crovax [/ QUOTE ] Edit: we are oop so checking the turn is not an option. Maybe a check raise? Maybe Saxa's line is good. +EV |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
[ QUOTE ]
youre so beat on this river villain probably has 10 8 for the nuts. congrats on donking into it 3 times check call the river after youve been smooth called twice [/ QUOTE ] This is another good line. +EV |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
check/call the river is leaving money on the table. This villain is much more likely to call with a weaker hand than bet. I think turn and river bets are standard and I would rather consider check/folding the river than check/calling because bet/fold is so clearly superior to check/call.
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Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
im pretty sure you have to call, he might be slow playing a set or made 2p on the river but he might be weakly bluffing witha missed T or thought his A on the turn gave him the best hand, that you were betting with a J and got beat on the turn.
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Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
Your line looks ok to me - you can bet a little less on the flop (not a big deal).
Let's think about the villains stats - 50/12/1 50 vpip - This guy plays a lot of hands, and it's a blind battle, he could be holding almost ATC here. 12 pfr - This is on the tighter end of preflop raising, but I've tried a style around this range. He'd probably re-raise big overpairs here preflop (AA,KK,etc) 1 ag - He's really passive. A turn raise from someone with this is a lot of trouble. Flop - c-bet is standard Turn - I think you have to bet here for value - he could have any J or 9 on the flop that just called. River - This is a lot closer. I like a check, here's why (my original thought was value bet, but I have new reasoning:) Betting the river: Pros: prevents a big bluff, we have showdown value Cons: We're behind almost all other Ax combos. AK, AJ, A9, A7 we're ahead of. We tie AQ. We only are really beating A8 and AT here, and neither make a lot of sense because he called your flop bet. Checking the river: Pros: Pot control, might induce a bluff from a weird draw hand Cons: Might miss value if he's a total moron with something like JT. I like a check/call. If you do bet, go smaller, like 1/2 pot. |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
z28dreams, villain is loose/passive, not going to valuebet worse and bluffs very rarely. If you think we are beaten most often: check/fold, if we have any value: bet/fold or even bet/call, right? Why are you all even considering check/calling...
Another point though. AF=1 is a bit more than usually due the overall looseness. Third point: The valuetarget is not Ax but Jx type of hands, he is capable of making that call I'm sure. |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
Alright, this was my analysis, after the hand:
Looking at the stats, it seems like he's the type of player who calls and sees a lot of hands, but folds them on the flop when they don't hit. Hence the reason why he has such crazy PF stats yet I don't seem to be bumping into him. This means that him calling the c-bet means he most likely he's hit something. I'll put his range anywhere from a floped straight, set, two pair, top pair, possiblly 2nd pair and gutshots. I feel as though he'll raise big hands PF, so he doesn't have QQ+, and prob not JJ (but any set will beat me anyways). Basically, either I'm WA/WB on this flop. Turn comes and I now value bet and he calls. At this point, he's folding any gutshots and 2nd pairs. He still could be holding TP River - Now that I've narrowed his range down, it consists of hands that beat me, and pretty much nothing else. By calling the turn, he dropped hands like A8 and AT, leaving the only hand I beat being KJ. This is a c/f situation, and my river bet was a mistake If there isn't anything wrong with my analysis, I'll post the results here in a few hours Crovax |
Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
i think you are way overthinking this. why could he call down w/ just a naked J? I doubt he's folding JQ, JT here. i think you give him too much credit. you MUST bet that river and fold to the raise.
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Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
try to keep your betting as a % of the pot a little more consistent. flop "looks like" a cbet while turn looks like a valuebet. this guy might not notice but it's good practice.
bet/fold river. we lose too much value doing anything else against a 50/12, whom i think we can safely presume calls down too much. if he does otherwise i think the OP would have stated this. even with the sick odds we're getting i'd turbo muck river |
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