Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

SB is 35.5/16/1.3 over 76 hands
MP3 is 48.2/12.5/4.4 over 56 hands

The reason I ask about this call on the flop (the first one, I think the second is a clear fold) is because MP3 could be betting with absolutely anything here IMO. I figure I have 5.5 outs to the best hand: 4 T's to make the straight and 1.5 outs for the BDFD, which would give me just enough to call (5 outs = 8.2:1 and I'm getting 8:1). Am I right, or is this pot small enough, esp. with someone yet to act behind me, to get away from?

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, SB calls $0.05 (All-In).

P.S. Have I been posting too much again? If so, please feel free to tell me and I'll post even less. I notice my name on the front page quite a bit lately. Thanks guys.
Nick

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

I would rather 3-bet this preflop than cold-call. Folding is on my mind first though. Flop is alright.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather 3-bet this preflop than cold-call. Folding is on my mind first though. Flop is alright.

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as preflop goes, it says in SSHE to call a raise w/ QJs if there are 3 players (the raiser and two others) in front of you. In this situation, I called because the raiser is a very loose raiser with a wide range of PFR hands, but still felt that the call was better than raising a potentially dominated hand..I was assuming that I was probably NOT dominated, but I also had speculative value..what reason for 3 betting in your opinion?

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

PF call is pretty bad. This is a BB calling hand. I like this hand though as i've been trying to work on relative position lately. At 8:1 its an easy call if you are sure you will be closing the action. It gets tricky though when small blind is short stacked and will raise his last cents to try and buy the pot (which he never will) and you are exposed to a reraise by MP3 who likely has a big ace or PP.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Nick.. out of curiosity, what is your cold calling % in PT?

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As far as preflop goes, it says in SSHE to call a raise w/ QJs if there are 3 players (the raiser and two others) in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's talking about callers in front of you.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as preflop goes, it says in SSHE to call a raise w/ QJs if there are 3 players (the raiser and two others) in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's talking about callers in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, yeah. that's why I said "in front of you." [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Bravos - 90 out of 6074 hands or 1.5%...too high? This is something I never looked at, but probably a huge leak if this is too high..thanks for pointing it out to me.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation, I called because the raiser is a very loose raiser with a wide range of PFR hands...

[/ QUOTE ]
Looser than the stats would suggest? If so, you need to include such information in the original post. If not, you're behind to his range and there won't be enough other players in the pot to play this as a speculative hand against a raise, so I'd dump it.

Flop looks good to me.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as preflop goes, it says in SSHE to call a raise w/ QJs if there are 3 players (the raiser and two others) in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's talking about callers in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, yeah. that's why I said "in front of you." [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Bravos - 90 out of 6074 hands or 1.5%...too high? This is something I never looked at, but probably a huge leak if this is too high..thanks for pointing it out to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems pretty high... I've cold called 87 times from my last 33427 hands of FR.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Don't cold call in these spots Nick.
If you think he's stealing, pop it. If you don't, fold.

Remember you are not just playing against the weak end of his range. You can be virtually drawing dead against a raiser with an easily dominated hand like this.

Have a look at p.61 SSHE again.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

*grunch*

SB is 35.5/16/1.3 over 76 hands
MP3 is 48.2/12.5/4.4 over 56 hands

-if u just cold call u dont have initative at flop and have to fold many times at flop
-when u cold call u dont have enought pot ods to call like need speculative card
-u are at late possition with speculative card so not many chance to call enought villians to give u good pot odds
-after SB call u still dont have good pot odds and u have almost zero value at SD with so loose player with u Q high
-this card likes 1-2 villians if u have initiative OR many villians and u dont have to get initiative (so dont fit to this spot)
- exception (u are at Big Blind and u have to pay only 1BB to see flop)

I flod this hand always with this villian cus his PFR 12.5 is not so crazy and also postflop with 4.4 AF u can suspect he will bet almost all cards at flop and turn and u dont know what outs are clean.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as preflop goes, it says in SSHE to call a raise w/ QJs if there are 3 players (the raiser and two others) in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's talking about callers in front of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, yeah. that's why I said "in front of you." [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

So how many are there in front of you? Hint: It's zero.

[ QUOTE ]

Bravos - 90 out of 6074 hands or 1.5%...too high? This is something I never looked at, but probably a huge leak if this is too high..thanks for pointing it out to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 94 CCs in ~63k hands. Granted, I'm tighter than most (and especially behind a raise), but this is an order of magnitude in difference.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

With respect to the flop decision the pot is roughly laying the same odds at both decision points, 1:8 (fisrt time) vs 1:7 (second time).

You have 4 outs to the nuts and 1,5 outs for the BDFD --&gt; you need ~47:1,5 --&gt; 8,5:1 to call. Implied odds would you hit are probably favorable. SB is all-in eliminating the risk of a raising war.

--&gt; We call again?

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

lol @ 3bet this pf

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Nick,

In SSH, Ed Miller suggests that optimal cold calling percentage is about 0.5%. That percentage was given for games considerably looser than most games online now. Perhaps 2c/4c is still this loose, but mostly, games this loose are only found live. In games in the current online environment, you should be cold calling considerably less than this, and yet you're doing it about three times as often. This is a significant leak that should be plugged immediately.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

fold preflop

and i coldcall quite a bit

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Nick, based on that cold call %age you call too much.

heres the thing, by just coldcalling in this spot (and spots like it) you set yourself up for some potentially tough spots postflop. My recommendation is that you avoid spots like this until your postflop play improves.

yes, there is an argument for learning whilst the stakes are cheap but there is plenty of time for that later. You can beat alot of micro/nanostakes games by avoiding hands that will put you in toughspots and mercilessly valuebetting

I asked this in that A5s thread and Ill repeat the essence of the question...what would you do with QJo in this spot? what value do you place on being sooted?

ozi

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

i would fold pf. and fold flop.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Dear Nick D,

From reading your posts, I'm going to recommend a simply strategic change that should increase your winrate significantly.

It is clear from many of your preflop decisions that you are playing too reactively and not actively enough on your hands. In other words, you preflop philosophy seems to be one of "i want to see a flop b/c you never know what could happen" rather than taking charge of the hand from the get go. In these situations, you should ask yourself if you're willing to 3 bet or 4 bet preflop. if not, in general, you should fold.

There are exceptions, of course, like when there are a lot of people in the hand, or you're in the big blind, etc. But in general you want to avoid cold calling at all costs. Dont play reactively, especially preflop.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Yikes on the cold call percentage. I cold-call about once every 400 hands in full ring. Except in rare circumstances you should be 3-betting or folding.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Marginal hand that should be folded PF. If you really think that MP3 is raising with a weaker hand than yours then go ahead and RR PF to isolate. Problem is that HU you really go for a TP win and that's kinda hard with QJ. You will be far ahead if he raise with Tx but how often does that happen?

Flop is one of these though decision spots and you seem to lack one player in the history (someone all in?). The reason it's a tough decision is that sure, you got the odds to call one but you also have playes waiting to act after you who might raise and ruin your day. You can fill your straight on the turn already but to get your flush you need to pay two streets and that lowers your odds. This would make me inclined to fold to the first bet. There will be better spots.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

As with a lot of theories that are in books, I find it hard to do and always need to learn the hard way. That being said, I used to cold call a lot of hands like this "because I could flop something". Many times I flopped the second best hand or flopped nothing and folded to a c-bet. I was actually just trying to explain this concept to one of my friends the other day. We lose 2 bets WAY more often that we gain anything IMO. If there are many callers and I have position, then I'll call. I probably 3-bet more than I call now and my bankroll has seen the difference. I start losing again when I start coldcalling.

my 2cents

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nick, based on that cold call %age you call too much.

.....

I asked this in that A5s thread and Ill repeat the essence of the question...what would you do with QJo in this spot? what value do you place on being sooted?

ozi

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that I assumed having suited cards gave our hole cards another way to win.. W/ QJo i'm folding here. SSHE puts so much emphasis on playing suited cards and only playing the very best offsuit cards that I just assumed suited cards were ok to call with here..

Question for everyone..if I'm folding here, am I folding KQs, KQo, KJs, KJo, or AJo? I assume the first is a reraise, the second is ??, the third is ??, the fourth is a fold, and the fifth is a fold? (It's clear my preflop game still has a ways to go).
Nick

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Question for everyone..if I'm folding here, am I folding KQs, KQo, KJs, KJo, or AJo? I assume the first is a reraise, the second is ??, the third is ??, the fourth is a fold, and the fifth is a fold? (It's clear my preflop game still has a ways to go).
Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

the answer to these questions depends on who is doing the raising and from what position he is doing it. you can make a good argument for 3 betting all of these hands in some situations and folding all of these hands in others.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Question for everyone..if I'm folding here, am I folding KQs, KQo, KJs, KJo, or AJo?

[/ QUOTE ]

If those numbers are accurate (and you've very likely seen something shown down to help complete the read), I 3bet all of these except possibly KJo.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Good thread. I am going to go on a limb here and say that if one blindly follows SSHE tight hand chart, cold call PF% converges to ~1%. In order to get closer to .5%, adjustments need to be done and, as KitCloudkicker said, they need to be flexible.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Another terrible PF play.. I think the reason my PF play is so mediocre/outright poor is that I focused on my Post-flop play more than my preflop play when I first started out. SSHE says that the postflop is more important and not to waste your time with strict rules for preflop, so I gave the preflop stuff a few quick reads and moved on the other sections...bring on the bashing.. i need it:

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (17 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

I mean, yeah..it worked out, but still a bad play pf.. Maybe if there was one more caller, could I play this? or is this just way to speculative? Should I quit poker? haha

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

this is a fine pf play

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Perhaps some people can't help calling raises with T9o. Try putting SSHE chart into excel, print it, follow it, resist the urge. What's your VP$IP, Nick?

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps some people can't help calling raises with T9o. Try putting SSHE chart into excel, print it, follow it, resist the urge. What's your VP$IP, Nick?

[/ QUOTE ]

18.50 over 6,109 hands

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Another terrible PF play.. I think the reason my PF play is so mediocre/outright poor is that I focused on my Post-flop play more than my preflop play when I first started out. SSHE says that the postflop is more important and not to waste your time with strict rules for preflop, so I gave the preflop stuff a few quick reads and moved on the other sections...bring on the bashing.. i need it:

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (17 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

I mean, yeah..it worked out, but still a bad play pf.. Maybe if there was one more caller, could I play this? or is this just way to speculative? Should I quit poker? haha

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is 1000x better preflop than the original hand and many people around here will make this call getting 7:1.

I challenge you to play your next 2000 hands w/ out cold calling at all. Don't be afraid to fold hands like KQ, AJo, ATs, etc with a raise in front. Even folding a hand as strong as AQo is correct in certain scenarios as opposed to 3betting.

Nick, I curious to whattypes of hands are you cold calling with as well.... is it suited connectors, suited aces, suited broadway, pocket pairs, etc?

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Nick, since you've read SSHE I don't really understand how you can be unsure of what to do PF in the first hand. Why don't you start following the hand chart to the letter and see where that leads you? That chart for example tells you to fold QJs unless you have 3 people in the pot.

It seems to me that you try to base your PF play on SSHE but adjust (i.e. playing looser) to what you think your opponent has. That's a good way of loosing money when you're just starting out. I should know. Been there, done that.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
SSHE says that the postflop is more important and not to waste your time with strict rules for preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

NO NO, that's not what it says. It tells you to follow the recommendations for PF play and don't bother experimenting with changes.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Let me take a look..

hang on a sec.. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

AJo 8X
AQo, 55, 99 6X
KQo 5X
77, 66, QJo 4X
A7s, ATo, 88, JTs, QJs, A6s 3X

The list goes on and just gets worse.. Wow, there are some nasty calls in there. Granted, some may be from a few weeks ago when I was just getting started playing seriously, but it is quite eye opening.. Which ones really stick out to you? (Granted, I know some of these are player and position dependent...and also that it's too much regardless, but any that are just absolutely sick to your stomach terrible?)

Nick

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SSHE says that the postflop is more important and not to waste your time with strict rules for preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

NO NO, that's not what it says. It tells you to follow the recommendations for PF play and don't bother experimenting with changes.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yar. The idea is to have have a nearly spewless PF strategy so you can afford to focus on postflop. Cold-calling is not a nearly spewless tactic.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

AJo, QJo, and ATo are almost certainly the worst cold calls, but it really depends on the action and the cast of characters. The PPs are almost certainly the best hands to CC with, but they're still often mistakes.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

As far as the second hand, I think that is a different scenario. You have already posted BB so are halfway in, have 3 opponents, and are closing the action. Getting 7:1 with connected cards. For me you gotta see it. When it works it works at not too bad a price.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

Do this:
Never cold call unless at least 2 people cold call before you act. Then, coldcall all 22-99, A2s-AJs, JTs, QJs and KQs.

AQ is the exception to the above. When facing a raise with AQ, decide your best option of the 3.

OK, flame away.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

I dunno Marquis, expecially with Axs. Doing that can be fine if you're comfortable post flop. Often you flop TPWK, or mid/low pair top kicker. That's tough spots that are easy to misplay in the beginning.

I still think you should follow SSHE by the letter Nick. That let's you focus on your post flop play. You can always go back later and try to understand the basis for the PF recomendatins and start to adjust to specific circumstances.

Re: Too Close to call...a clear fold or not?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do this:
Never cold call unless at least 2 people cold call before you act. Then, coldcall all 22-99, A2s-AJs, JTs, QJs and KQs.

AQ is the exception to the above. When facing a raise with AQ, decide your best option of the 3.

OK, flame away.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably fine if you are good post flop player, but I would say for a while to NEVER cold call at all for quite some time.

The suited aces can still be trouble for the smaller ones and I'd prefer to have 3 people in already as opposed to 2.