looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

it's scary to think what he will make on an open market..

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

please god don't let the yankees sign him

please god don't let the yankees sign him

please god don't let the yankees sign him

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Even if they would've added the whole world, Santana would have to be stupid to stay.

I'd give Johan $30m/yr over four years.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
please god don't let the yankees sign him

please god don't let the yankees sign him

please god don't let the yankees sign him

[/ QUOTE ]

Pirates FTW. Gorzelanny, Morris, Snell, Santana.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

He'll want 7 or 8 years, and he'll probably get it.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if they would've added the whole world, Santana would have to be stupid to stay.

I'd give Johan $30m/yr over four years.

[/ QUOTE ]

So would I, but he wouldn't take it.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

I wonder what the sweat spot is for a higher annual but shorter long-term contract to make it +EV for both the team and Johan. Like if we estimate the chances of Johan getting injured / performing poorly enough that he no longer gets another huge long-term contract after those four years, and then we figure out how much the highest contract offer for him next season is, and then we add however much annually we need to make him accept it... Bleh.

I guess a simpler question would be that, on average, how much more $$ on annual basis is needed to make a player pass up more years but less money.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

really depends on the player. johan will be the most sought-after free agent in a long time if he hits the market (and i wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't - someone will probably try to trade for him and sign him to an extension).

i see no reason he can't get a eight or ten year deal in the 28MM/per range, maybe more. if he's smart he'll get an opt-out after four or five years so he can go back for another big deal if he's healthy.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

TEN years? That is ludicrous. I know the guy has had very little arm trouble, but that is totally unacceptable.

I would imagine he'll get a 7-8 year deal with an opt-out and a mutual option for years 9-10.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

does MN's goal switch to trading him this offseason, like Montreal had to do with Pedro?

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's scary to think what he will make on an open market..

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially if you compare his stats, to Zito's stats, and consider how much Zito got from the Giants.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
does MN's goal switch to trading him this offseason, like Montreal had to do with Pedro?

[/ QUOTE ]
Without taking ticket sales and other such things into consideration, I'd be surprised if this wasn't the answer. There's no way they're keeping him, and Minnesota's chances next year can't be good enough to risk keeping him.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
i see no reason he can't get a eight or ten year deal in the 28MM/per range

[/ QUOTE ]

Wtf? Who could even afford that? I don't think even the Yankees can.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
please god don't let the yankees sign him

please god don't let the yankees sign him

please god don't let the yankees sign him

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto, but I think they will. No team with money needs a front of the line starter like they do, and they have the most money.

Who else could afford him and has the willingness? Boston, probably not. Same with Detroit. Angels and Mets I think are up there, so are the Dodgers. Braves will likely spend their money (freed up from Andruw/Hampton/new management) on Teixeira, but if they don't they will be a dark horse candidate.

Another interesting possibility is the Nats. They do have money, despite common perception. The Orioles have money but suck at tempting people to sign, but they deserve to be named. I suppose the Cardinals have a shot too? If the Cubs don't get Zambrano back, they will certainly be in hot pursuit. Unless I'm forgetting someone, the only other teams that I could see getting him are Seattle and Arizona.

I guess it's actually a pretty long list!

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Boston won't even need him. Angels are pretty much it. Maybe the Mets I guess.

But $28m/yr for 8 years? Wtf?

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

ok maybe only 25.

his projected 5-year MORP including this year is 95MM.
zito's was only 34MM and his deal is worth what, 90MM over that time frame?

i would guess anything 6 years or less he can get 25 per. over that probably more like 22. sound more reasonable?


i would love to see him in boston but it'll never happen. their SP situation isn't as rosy as some people think, some people saying that are leaning very heavily on lester / buccholz / bowden as early as 2008. i think there's a good chance jon and clay are productive ML starters next season but it's far from a guarantee.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

I feel like the higher you keep going in salaries, the quicker you reach the ceiling because by default less and less teams can afford it, and the teams that could reasonably afford it have already burned a ton of money on other massive signings in previous years, taking them out of contention.

Though you do have to view the Zito deal as especially stupid when they could've just waited two years and paid extra to Johan + use the extra time to find out which pitching prospects were fo reelz.

Boston rotation:

Matsuzaka through '12
Beckett through '10

Two super cheap contracts (less than $10/yr individually) to anchor their top of the rotation.

Toss in Lester through '13, Buchholz I'm assuming also has to be through '13, and the possibility of still turning Papelbon back into a starter (for the record a move I'd at least try out) and they should be fine. I guess they could sign Santana, giving them a ridiculous rotation, but they don't need to.

They also have money freed up from Schilling and Clement at the end of this year to invest in more pitching if they so choose to.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

it is bs that the twins have done nothing to help him out... hes easily the best pitcher in baseball...

does anyone think they will try to trade him to get something if he's 100% serious about leaving the twins?

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

I think alot of people are underestimating just how sick the Yanks pitching will be come 2009, Santana or not.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
his projected 5-year MORP including this year is 95MM.
zito's was only 34MM and his deal is worth what, 90MM over that time frame?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but they didn't price Zito based on his MORP, so it's irrelevant.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

i agree that the sox will be contenders for years with beckett and matsuzaka signed as they are. that is so sexy. and i think we will hit the ceiling with contracts soon - but we aren't quite there yet, because some of the non-NYY and BOS large market teams are going to end up paying big for a few free agents in the next couple years. that's my guess anyway.

schilling, clement and lowell all come off next year = what, about 33-35MM freed up? they want to drop their payroll back into the 110-120 range, but it's not like they couldn't stay around 140 and be fine in terms of money.

if boston signed santana for 6/150 i'd be the first in line to suck epstein's dick. they can afford it, it's not my money and he's the best god damn pitcher in baseball. i doubt that'll be enough to get him, though.

they need a CI and the usual pitching help, but other than that they look really good, and some of the young starters will probably be able to step up.

could any sox fan really complain if they flipped a couple prospects (not ellsbury or buchholz) for a young CI and signed santana to the above deal? i would pee all over myself. no way it happens though.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
his projected 5-year MORP including this year is 95MM.
zito's was only 34MM and his deal is worth what, 90MM over that time frame?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but they didn't price Zito based on his MORP, so it's irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you don't think santana gets something in the range of 140-190MM for 6-8 years? i would be shocked if he gets less, unless there are extenuating circumstances

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Isn't BOS going to need a catcher soon as well?

craig

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't BOS going to need a catcher soon as well?

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] you're right

like really soon

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Hey, Jon Daniels has about four of them.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think alot of people are underestimating just how sick the Yanks pitching is, Santana or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those kids are studly.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think alot of people are underestimating just how sick the Yanks pitching is, Santana or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those kids are studly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Joba the savior.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]

schilling, clement and lowell all come off next year = what, about 33-35MM freed up?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and they may move Crisp and let Ellsbury play CF. they would prob have to eat something from Coco's deal though. either way, it would be a huge savings

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

schilling, clement and lowell all come off next year = what, about 33-35MM freed up?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and they may move Crisp and let Ellsbury play CF. they would prob have to eat something from Coco's deal though. either way, it would be a huge savings

[/ QUOTE ]

eat something from crisp's deal? are you kidding? he's pretty cheap and he's been playing great for the last month. he's got some real trade value. my guess is they give jacoby a shot in ST next year and consider moving coco if he looks ready. but even at that point it doesn't hurt them to keep coco around, it's not like he's super expensive, and ellsbury has very little time at AAA under his belt. i think whether coco goes next year will have a lot to do with how jacoby looks and where the sox are in the standings.

they could also trade him in the offseason if they are really optimistic about ellsbury, but i wouldn't be crazy about it if they did.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

You guys saying who can afford 10 years at 28 mil are forgetting to include baseball inflation, which is absurd.

In 5 years, 28 Mil will be merely an above-average salary.

Remember, 10X28 means for the first few years he'd probably make like 24, 25, 26, which is...like...not much more than Captain Clutch LOL!!!!

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

The yankees are gonna show up at his Santanas door with a wheelbarrow of cash the first day of free agency. If he says that isnt enough, theyll show up with 2, and so on, and so on. FOr a picther like him, with George on his last legs at that point, will probably be a yankee.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

It makes me sick to my stomach when I think about Santana in a Yankee uniform

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Phillies FTW!

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

I am just hoping to god that the Angels or Dodgers are saving up prospects and young guys to deal for him next year. And that Minny sucks so they can trade him at the deadline without the fans rioting.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

^^i agree, those teams definitely have the prospects to get a deal done and trading is prolly the best way to secure him before the yankees go nutz on him in FA...

still a ways off, but hopefully the mets throw everything at him...trades/signing, whatever...though they're typically shied away from big contracts other than for beltran, such as with arod, vlad, etc...hopefully they pull the trigger as the rotation is old...

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

Any chance the Twins could pull of a deal for someone cool like Andy LaRoche or Justin Upton?

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any chance the Twins could pull of a deal for someone cool like Andy LaRoche or Justin Upton?

[/ QUOTE ]

one scout said that Justin Upton is the most untouchable player in all of minor league baseball right now.

Re: looks like Santana is gone next season
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any chance the Twins could pull of a deal for someone cool like Andy LaRoche or Justin Upton?

[/ QUOTE ]

one scout said that Justin Upton is the most untouchable player in all of minor league baseball right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I quoted that in another thread. He said "you could tell them Mickey Mantle was coming back and they wouldn't be interested."