AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

About 185 left, 180 pay.


I've only been at the table about 20 hands, so no huge reads, but the table has seen me open a lot, especially in position. I've showed down one river bluff when like 15 outs didnt hit on the river and villian checked to me.

The caller is clearly a donk, calling off that much of his stack, probably a tourney lifer trying to stall into the money or something. The RR I think is probably a decent player. I think his range here is TT+, but I dunno. Seems like AK would push.

What's my action here? I think calling is slightly better because I think a push is always getting called by the RR. At least I can see the flop, and get away if it sucks. What's my line? Push or call (no way I'm folding, I think).

I also don't think the RR put enough in to push out the original caller, so I can get an idea of what my implied/express odds will probably be.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t8373)
Button (t6887)
SB (t109062)
BB (t49839)
Hero (t49714)
UTG+1 (t22410)
MP1 (t11035)
MP2 (t23699)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t3000, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t10000</font>,

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Yeah I think calling is a good play too because you are pretty deep. If you think opponents range is only TT+ then calling and evaluating the flop would probably be the best move. Against an avg opponent, however, I would probably shove.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

i flat call the bb has a big hand here most often. if i hit the flop id have to go with it.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

This is a pretty tough spot. Folding is obviously out of the question. But neither option (shoving or calling) is too comfortable either.

I don't like calling because if UTG calls, then MP2 has proper odds to call. Then, UTG will be sandwiched between a preflop re-raiser and a limp/caller. I think calling off 1/4 of your stack and folding a flop with all undercards is spew. You could call and hope to hit an ace or king, then jam the flop.

On the other hand, I don't like shoving because you're in at best a race situation and possibly dominated. Against a donkish player, I'd jam. But in this situation, I don't feel comfortable shoving when we are underdogs against nearly every hand villain could have here. And we are getting called here. No way villain folds to a 4-bet all-in after re-raising an UTG raiser and an overcall.

In the end, I probably take the safer route and call. If you miss and fold, you still have 30 BB left and more than enough play to work with for a while. It's the best of two pretty bad options.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

no limp caller, I raised UTG and just a caller.

I think you got a lot of the problem with this hand down Bob, but I think at this point I don't care about MP2. He's probably calling a lot of hands, I wouldn't be surprised if a pair that he's ready to fold on the flop.

I think I want his money in there. Unless he's being super crafty with AA/KK, I think its pretty much dead money. I really only care about the RR, both b/c I think he's a decent player, but also his range is tighter. If I flop something that needs better pot odds to continue with (like say a gutshot plus overcards) I'll be glad the donk was in there.

I like calling and re-evaluating flop and likely letting the two other players duke it out on most flops.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

I fold to the 3-bet. This is a horrible situation to be in and the typical range for the 3-bet is QQ+ and maybe AK. A squeeze raise would have raised much bigger - instead he wants to price you in.

Lets say he is doing it with a monster like KK or AA (very likely). You hit your K on the flop and get all-in against KK/AA. GG

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold to the 3-bet. This is a horrible situation to be in and the typical range for the 3-bet is QQ+ and maybe AK. A squeeze raise would have raised much bigger - instead he wants to price you in.

Lets say he is doing it with a monster like KK or AA (very likely). You hit your K on the flop and get all-in against KK/AA. GG

[/ QUOTE ]

Def never folding here.

He could be three betting AQ, JJ, TT, QQ. Even if he does have QQ, there's enough overlay in the pot to call. Also, implied odds

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

So you show down a bluff, MP2 wants to see if he can hit some cards and see the same thing ... BB is squeezing.

I shove here, their ranges are wider than what has been mentioned

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

I don't like calling...

I wanna shove here. I'm only worried about BB having
AA KK... that's all we fear. If your opening often, stealing and cont betting you're a prime candidate to be slow played by AA. you have donk covered so ignore him. It's the bubble. His tourney is on the line too. Shove em in, win, amd dominate the table/tourney.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
I shove here, their ranges are wider than what has been mentioned

[/ QUOTE ]

That's bad. We are 50xBB deep .. why shove into another big stack with A-high? I don't think that the range of BB is that wide .. after all he is re-raising an UTG raiser and a caller, and his raise indicates that he just wants to build a pot and not get rid of anyone.

I can definately see a fold here.
If you want to play the hand, call and get it all-in on any A or K flop....but be prepared to go broke against AA/KK

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
why shove into another big stack with A-high?

[/ QUOTE ]

serious?

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I shove here, their ranges are wider than what has been mentioned

[/ QUOTE ]

That's bad. We are 50xBB deep .. why shove into another big stack with A-high? I don't think that the range of BB is that wide .. after all he is re-raising an UTG raiser and a caller, and his raise indicates that he just wants to build a pot and not get rid of anyone.

I can definately see a fold here.
If you want to play the hand, call and get it all-in on any A or K flop....but be prepared to go broke against AA/KK

[/ QUOTE ]

So we call 10k hoping to hit the flop?... and when a king or ace hits we get no action from pp like qq jj tt 99? And when we don't hit the flop we don't continue? I think it's understood we're willing to go broke against AA... and KK we have outs to get lucky about 25% of the time.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

This is a very standard shove.

You will get called by AQ and sometimes 55-JJ just wants to see where they are at and they will fold to you.

Furthermore, you are only getting paid off on an A/K flop if he hit his set or if you are chopping.

This is an obvious squeeze situation. This is a very easy all in

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
So you show down a bluff, MP2 wants to see if he can hit some cards and see the same thing ... BB is squeezing.

I shove here, their ranges are wider than what has been mentioned

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree this looks like a typical squeeze play. I think pushing it the best option you have the most fold equity if you push allin . If you just raise BB might decide to come along and see the flop. I say calling is the worse option here. If you miss the flop you will have a difficult time continuing with the hand.

One other thing to consider, how important is making the money to you. If that is a goal that you have, then folding is not a bad option either.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Any read on BB? Anyway I generally shove here. You have a boatload of FE and the BB could be squeezing or have a hand like 99 that will probably fold to your all in.

I really hate flat calling here. I'd rather fold than flat call, as you arent likely to get much action if you flop a pair

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you show down a bluff, MP2 wants to see if he can hit some cards and see the same thing ... BB is squeezing.

I shove here, their ranges are wider than what has been mentioned

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree this looks like a typical squeeze play. I think pushing it the best option you have the most fold equity if you push allin . If you just raise BB might decide to come along and see the flop. I say calling is the worse option here. If you miss the flop you will have a difficult time continuing with the hand.

One other thing to consider, how important is making the money to you. If that is a goal that you have, then folding is not a bad option either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, this brings up a pretty sexy point. Since shoving is the best play you might want to reraise to 28,500 (obv get it in on any flop if he smooth calls) because that looks more like aces in conjunction with your UTG raise and it is more likely to get 77-QQ to fold... of course it is also less likely that AQ will call so you need to weigh the pros and cons of such a play.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Calling would be bad because the only time BB checks is when he flops a set or the flop is ace/king high and he has JJ. I'd just shove but you can reraise intimidatingly less.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why shove into another big stack with A-high?

[/ QUOTE ]
serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Most tournament decisions are somewhat easy because the stacks aren't that big. That's also the reason why tournament players suck at cash games (deep stacks) or people go broke on the first level of the WSOP main event with AK and KK. They just aren't used to play deep stack poker where you can afford to wait for a real edge other than hoping that villain shows you QQ for a coinflip. You can set-mine the whole day .. so why would you shove 50BB preflop when the only hands that can call you are AA and KK?

@Cornell
[ QUOTE ]
You will get called by AQ and sometimes 55-JJ just wants to see where they are at and they will fold to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol? Maybe in a freeroll or $1 MTT ... in a $25MTT with such deep stacks, I instafold QQ if I get shoved for 50BB.

[ QUOTE ]
This is an obvious squeeze situation

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that the whole purpose of a squeeze play is to make both players fold? This tiny reraise is just a pot builder, nothing more .. we are getting over 2:1 on the call. If the BB wanted us to fold, he would raise bigger.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Black,
You are right. I should stick to freerolls and $1 tourneys. These $25 buyin players are way too advanced for me.

Oh, and folding QQ preflop when 50 bbs deep... or folding KK preflop in the WSOP. If only I had enough high buyin experience I might be able to make those expert plays.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

And the other difference between cash and MTT is the winner take all chips format. Which seems somewhat neglected in your thinking of folding QQ and AK. You need to be a bully. You need to push edges. You need to get lucky. You do not win an MTT by set-mining all day or passive play.

Sorry... but thats just the way I roll.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
Black,
You are right. I should stick to freerolls and $1 tourneys. These $25 buyin players are way too advanced for me.

Oh, and folding QQ preflop when 50 bbs deep... or folding KK preflop in the WSOP. If only I had enough high buyin experience I might be able to make those expert plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't be sorry. Leveling does not belong in the MTT strategy forums. Take it to BBV escape.

[/ QUOTE ]

hehe [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

It doesn't get any more +EV than shoving here. The only other option is...(ZOMG!)...folding.

Folding isn't bad if you can put him on KK/AA. But if QQ is in there you have way way too much overlay to fold.

So shove.

Edit: To not sound like a hilljack.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Mingdu,

One of the few times I have laughed out loud at a post. You owned me with my own words. NH

---------

Black,
I just realized that you said that you would instafold QQ to a shove. Do you understand that that means that AK should shove against you 100% of the time?

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Sherman,

I realize you don't really think his range is QQ+, but we're 30% against QQ+, so I'd recommend folding if that was the case. We're only 39% against AK+, QQ+, so that'd be a fold too.

Fiji, can you suggest what you think the guys re-raising range is, and what part of that range calls the shove? Because I think being 5 from the money makes this a bit more interesting than a normal situation.

I don't agree with Black, but I do think the 10k raise after a cold caller is suspiciously small. Unfortunately, it's either because the guy is unwilling to go broke, or because he has a huge hand and wants action, and I'm not sure which.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]

Black,
I just realized that you said that you would instafold QQ to a shove. Do you understand that that means that AK should shove against you 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah...why not? I'll be very happy to add those 50 BBs into my stack when I instacall with AA/KK. And once you begin to shove more and more because you think that you can bully me around, I'm also going to expand my calling range.
But without any good reads (and I'm not talking about those "I've been at the table for 15 hands and he raised 7 of them" reads) there is no reason to risk a 50 BB stack in a raising war where we are a coinflip AT BEST if called. Most of the time we are toast.

I would much rather call 17 3xBB raises with a SC or medium PP trying to hit a big flop, than shoving 50xBB preflop with A-high.
I shove 20xBB with AK all the day long, but there is a point where my stack is so deep that the risk/reward ratio simply isn't worth it. A 50xBB stack is HUGE in a tournament. Why not take those gambles against the shorter stacks and attack the big stack with a made hand? (note: AK is a NOT a made hand)

btw: your previous post looks more like something I would expect at P5s...

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

People raise-fold 99-JJ and AK here - you know that, right? They decide that they can make better use of those additional 40 BBs this deep.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
People raise-fold 99-JJ and AK here - you know that, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

The question is: with what hand do they call a 50xBB shove against an UTG re-re-raiser here? And this range is nowhere near AK,99+

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
People raise-fold 99-JJ and AK here - you know that, right? They decide that they can make better use of those additional 40 BBs this deep.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think JJ folds a lot less often than AK.

Fiji says AQ calls. So Registrar, what do you think a good standard re-raise range would be, and what of that calls the push?

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People raise-fold 99-JJ and AK here - you know that, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

The question is: with what hand do they call a 50xBB shove against an UTG re-re-raiser here? And this range is nowhere near AK,99+

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's cool. He folds a load of better hands, the same hand and a load of hands that don't put another chip in unimproved. We want him to fold 99-JJ, AQ+ here because he's not paying us off when we hit the flop and not often folding when we don't.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Interesting commentary... I also wanted to put the following thought in for the "I call" advocates. What do you do when you make the 10K call and MP2 (who is now being asked to put over 40% of his chips in preflop) decides to just shove the rest in right now? If BB calls, what do you do? If he shoves, what then? This is a very real possibility that I think needs to be considered.

Just one other reason why I think this decision is push or fold, and for the record, I shove this all day.

--TFGoose

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

I just want to re-iterate that my read on BB is he's probably only doing this with AK/AQ, TT+, maybe maybe 99 but I doubt it.

I still think calling is best. I'm priced in at this point and I think a shove is way excessive as deep as I am in this spot. Only QQ+ calls me, and that kinda sucks (probably the caller of my OR will fold, so I'm barely getting better than 1:1).

He's BB and raising (he could have just called), and he's raising an UTG raiser. My read on him is that he's not a super donk, so he has to know at least one of those things.

If I had 20 BBs this is an instapush, but for me it really comes down to the fact that I'm so deep here.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Dave,

If he reraised w/ TT+, AQ+, and folds all but QQ+ to your push, that means:

He calls 12/45 times.
Or, almost 75% of the time, if you push you win 17k in chips and end at 64k chips.
If he calls, you lose 70% of the time, end up with 104k 30% of the time.

Pushing: (0.75)*(64k) + (0.25)*(0.3)*(104k) = 55.8k = +8.8k average.

The math for calling is a lot harder, but to be simple, if you call, he c-bets and folds to your shove on any A/K flop, (which ignores some ugly cases where you lose to a set, two pair or AA/KK)

You flop an A or K 1/3rd of the time. So 67% = -7k (call, fold.) 33% = +32k (24k preflop + 15k c-bet - 7k call)

Calling: (.67)*(-7k) + (.33)*(32k) = +5.87k

As I said, the second case is over-simplified, and your EV is less than the +5.87k. But even being generous, shoving is better by 3k chips on average, and the value of those chips makes up for the few times you bubble.

So you can argue your position, but so far based on your read calling is not the best play.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Stumpy,

Thanks for doing the math. I was hoping that someone would do that. I think that the MTT forum is definitely slipping a bit with a lot of people saying that they should call, or push without trying to figure out the math behind their decision.

I know this is a ridiculously standard shove. I have done the math on a hundred similar hands and it has defended my conclusion. I worry about all of the posters who make the conclusion that they don't want to get their money in with only ace high without justifying their play with any advanced reasoning.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol? Maybe in a freeroll or $1 MTT ... in a $25MTT with such deep stacks, I instafold QQ if I get shoved for 50BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The term Fold Equity springs to mind. This is what makes shoving AKo +EV here.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Stumpy-

I'll take your math for granted right now. However, I think you're wrong that he doesn't call the push with JJ, and probably TT. That makes that calculation a little worse too. Maybe even 99 some of the time, and AQ some of the time. Also, some of the time he's caught in a straight bluff, or has KQ, or decides 88 is good here.

I dunno the math right now, but it seems to make it a lot closer. For me due to the deep stacked nature of the situation the push is not standard.

Cornell- this is something you need to understand. If you were 100 bbs deep here, a push isn't standard here. We exploit our advantage as better players than the field by playing post flop. Pre flop decisions are easy, and more likely to be "right" or "wrong" but arent the most EV in the long run.

I'm not saying a push is *wrong* here per se, I just don't think its optimal. Usually I hate calling off 1/4 of my stack, EXCEPT when it's JJ+. I still think this decision is very close.

Oh yeah, and I hate people who say "calling off with A high" or whatever. It's not A high, it's nut no pair, I'm not being a nit, there's a big difference in the concept.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sherman,

I realize you don't really think his range is QQ+, but we're 30% against QQ+, so I'd recommend folding if that was the case. We're only 39% against AK+, QQ+, so that'd be a fold too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I get 31% equity.

Anyhow, I meant QQ+/AK. There is no way we can rule AK out.

Anyhow, with all the dead $ in the pot, shoving has to be +EV even if he only has QQ+/AK (well in fact it is slightly -EV; ~2K), doesn't include antes though, what are they?.

But one problem here is that everyone is assuming MP folds. He already called off 1/8th of his stack, he may stick it in here as well, and I am quite sure we are in good shape against his range. With his added $ to the pot, we are in great shape.

Beyond this, Stumpy's math looks good. Thanks.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Fiji,
I don't think you can call people sloppy when you stated in this thread that people call with AQ, but also fold 55-JJ. That's like the two way river bluff/value bet. Please suggest a re-raising and a calling range that you think is standard.

Dave, this is your post:
[ QUOTE ]
I just want to re-iterate that my read on BB is he's probably only doing this with AK/AQ, TT+, maybe maybe 99 but I doubt it.

I still think calling is best. I'm priced in at this point and I think a shove is way excessive as deep as I am in this spot. Only QQ+ calls me, and that kinda sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

That's where my ranges came from. And why at the end of my post I said, "You can argue your position, but so far based on your read, calling is not the best play."

You have to greatly adjust his range before the numbers change significantly. I hope you see that adding JJ,TT,99 as calls pushes things one way, and your "straight bluffs, AQ calls" pushes it back.

I didn't bother doing further calling math, because the simple (very optimistic) case I used shows it is a worse option. I think calling is quite a bit worse than I've shown.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

OOps, caught me, I forgot I'd said that before. I guess that kinda illustrates the point that we don't really know what he's calling the push with.

Also, in retrospect I think I'm right in the second post, I think he might call the push with TT+ and some pairs sometimes and AQ.

Also, as far as my read, and in general I think the caller is calling my push every time. I think he's also calling if I call.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Sherman,

I assumed they both had 50k to start, MP folds his 3k, 500SB, 500 in antes for a 104k pot.

AK,QQ+ is 39% equity.
47k is break-even (fold), and 104k * (0.39) = 40.6k.

If you assume the whole re-raising range calls, you can't come up with a rational range that makes pushing good. It's the folds that make this a good play.

Particularly because we're 5 from the money. The $60 bubble payout is worth quite a few chips, so a 50/50 is no good without a lot of overlay.

2000 players, $25 entry, pays $60 to top 180. (This is approx for the 25+2.50 double stack.)

After the bubble each chip is worth 0.6533 cents. $60 = 9183 chips.

If we had a play here that was worth +9000 chips on average, but we went broke 50% of the time, folding would be a better option. 9k is almost 20% of our stack, so clearly cEV and $EV have diverged quite a bit.

Re: AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in
 

Dave,

You're starting to sound like a knuckle-head here. All you've shown is that you don't know what his range is, you're not taking this hand very seriously, and you just want people to say "call."

Your modified re-raiser range has litle to no effect.

You've said the caller is an idiot with some piece of trash hand, but now he's shoving his 21k extra chips in after a re-raise and a shove 5 from the money. Great. I would bet a fortune you're wrong, and you say the exact opposite in your OP, but whatever.

Why wouldn't you want to shove and isolate him then? That's just more near dead money, and if you get unlucky and lose to him, you've still got 25k in chips left, you'll make the money, and everything is great.

(Call.)