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-   -   is this statistically imposible? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=464387)

facepull 07-30-2007 06:28 AM

is this statistically imposible?
 
it has been exactly 827 hands since the last time i have been dealt pocket aces on-line!

QuietEarner 07-30-2007 06:53 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
I feel a heater coming!! start open pushing so they'll be suprised to see your aces.

unseen 07-30-2007 07:01 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Why should it?

If I recall it right the odds of getting dealt specific PP (in your example AA) are about 1:220, but that does not mean you have to get it in this interval.

The random distribution is always evaluated over a virtually endless count of samples. However 800 hands are a way to small sample to figure if the card distribution is truly random.

HTH

mvdgaag 07-30-2007 07:27 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
there is a 2.35% chance for you not to have been dealt pocket aces in 827 hands.

this happens to one in 43 people.

facepull 07-30-2007 07:32 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
why the hell does it have to be me

DeliciousBass 07-30-2007 07:35 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is this statistically impossible?

[/ QUOTE ]

FYT and no...it's statistically improbable, but clearly not impossible as you hold the proof.

deucethree 07-30-2007 08:18 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
If all 43 only see 827 hands in their poker career. If you play a lot of poker this will happen to you.

facepull 07-30-2007 08:37 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
in my lifetime i have been dealt on the net something like 100k hands so far. i just cant remember not getting aa for this long.

btmagnetw 07-30-2007 08:44 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
i bet lots of people go through these kinds of streaks. they just don't count them.

jasonfish11 07-30-2007 09:44 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Dont feel too bad. In 1000 hands I had AA 9 times and lost (or folded) with them 8 times. I was down 52BB in those 9 hands.

The one win I had was for 1.5BB.

facepull 07-30-2007 09:57 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
just got dealt kk half hour ago. lol still no aa

btmagnetw 07-30-2007 10:10 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
just got dealt kk half hour ago. lol still no aa

[/ QUOTE ]LOL NO WAI!!!!!

Dangeresque 07-30-2007 10:14 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Meh. 4 tabling the other day I got 4 consecutive hands: AA AA KK AA. These things happen. Tonight was a night of bad cards and coolers.

El_Hombre_Grande 07-30-2007 11:02 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
I'm no statistics experts, but the way I'm understanding the math presnted is that it actually should happen to you if you play online for a statistically significant # of hands.

ev_slave 07-30-2007 12:13 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
This should actually happen 1 out of every 43 groupings of 827 hands. Since you've played over 100k hands, you've only had it happen 1 out of 120+ times. So you're actually lucky.

Kurn, son of Mogh 07-30-2007 12:32 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Not even close to impossible. In fact, its only mildly improbable.

Gonso 07-30-2007 01:58 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Sure, you could play 827 hands per day easily. If you did, this would happen once every six weeks or so. Not that strange.

Floyd13 07-30-2007 06:18 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
I'll agree with everyone and say this is normal. When I first started playing on full tilt I had an aceless stretch of over 2300 hands.

ApeAttack 07-30-2007 11:18 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
it has been exactly 827 hands since the last time i have been dealt pocket aces on-line!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes... it has never happened before to anyone and I would say you must have really pissed off a poker site.

I get AA like once every 40 hands.

mason55 07-30-2007 11:33 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
yeah i had one day where i didn't get aces in my first 1800 hands. then i got them, got all in preflop, and lost. quit for the day after that.

Acein8ter 07-30-2007 11:38 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
And when you eventually get them, they will be cracked.......

barryc83 07-30-2007 11:40 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
nothing is statistically impossible DUCY?

RikaKazak 07-30-2007 11:42 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
standard...

can a mod ban for retarded posts like this? I mean come on

apefish 07-30-2007 11:44 PM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
nothing is statistically unpossible. Me no see why.

[/ QUOTE ]

rebuyboy 07-31-2007 12:11 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
beware, OP, you,,, may NEVER, get AA AGAIN, !!!!!!!,,,,

hra146 07-31-2007 12:15 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
beware, OP, you,,, may NEVER, get AA AGAIN, !!!!!!!,,,,

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, finally. I thought we were gonna have another page of serious answers.

jungy121 07-31-2007 12:18 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
this forum has gone to hell. and i'm not helping by posting this. so why post? i don't know.

evilempire 07-31-2007 12:19 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
I was starting to think I was in the probability forums

BadMoFu 07-31-2007 12:28 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Move up asap because every next hand thet is dealt to you has a bigger chance of being AA. Like when its red 7 times in a row on roulette, its that much more likely the next colour is gonna be black (otherwise you'd have infinite red stretches which is obv not the case).

CaseS87 07-31-2007 12:42 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/2531/zomgwtfex6.jpg

paulcouto 07-31-2007 12:57 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
???????? i blinded off 263 dollars playing full ring 1/2 nl and never got dealt AA KK QQ AK. thats an epic mucking streak........i think.

bottomset 07-31-2007 01:15 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
???????? i blinded off 263 dollars playing full ring 1/2 nl and never got dealt AA KK QQ AK. thats an epic mucking streak........i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are good at poker

paulcouto 07-31-2007 04:30 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
???????? i blinded off 263 dollars playing full ring 1/2 nl and never got dealt AA KK QQ AK. thats an epic mucking streak........i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are good at poker

[/ QUOTE ]

no, actually i'm great at poker. all the sharks tell me so.

kind of like when hookers tell me i'm good looking........before i pay them.

ICMoney 07-31-2007 05:02 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
Don't overplay it when you get it.

Fold to any check raise on the flop.

It's just one pair after all.

Wait another 1k hands.

Rinse.
Repeat.

rothko 07-31-2007 05:04 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
i don't think that phrase means what you think it means.

GTL 07-31-2007 05:11 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
statistically, there is a 50% chance of this happening. DUCY?

demon102 07-31-2007 05:12 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
ok if u didnt get AA in like 10k hands this would be worth a thread, as of now ur just wasting space op

Flintoff 07-31-2007 05:15 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
I went 2200 hands with AA once.

idontlikeyou 07-31-2007 05:29 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Move up asap because every next hand thet is dealt to you has a bigger chance of being AA. Like when its red 7 times in a row on roulette, its that much more likely the next colour is gonna be black (otherwise you'd have infinite red stretches which is obv not the case).

[/ QUOTE ]

actually if there are 7 straight red there is a GREATER chance of it being red again, but only if you bet against the 36 people who just threw all their money down on black. the weight of all the money on black tilts the table and makes red 67.9% more likely to hit. try it...its how i built my bankroll.

Mothercanuck 07-31-2007 06:26 AM

Re: is this statistically imposible?
 
aces once in 220 hands...but how many times do you get like aces 4 times in a 200 hands session??? happens quite abit...so if you can get aces more than you should...then you can also get them less than u should...


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