NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Here are my top 3 choices:
STL o7.5
WAS u7
Tenn u7

Discuss, love any input from those team's fans or anyone else knowledgable.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

STL o7.5 is a good bet. Their strength of schedule isn't stellar and they should win 9 of those games pretty decisively this year.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I don't really like any of those...maybe STL if any of them

Tenn is just too iffy to know...and Was could be good/decent/bad. I think QB play will be much better in Was so I would see them getting maybe 7 wins

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

NE, SF, MN on w/e the over is

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I like STL but boy does that D look suspect. I cant even recognize a LB's name. I think they get 8 though, everyone' picking SF to be like a darkhorse payoff pick, but I still see them as being a year away. AZ is always supposed to be good, but never lives up to the hype. The O line still blows and the D is suspect again. And who knows which SEA team will show up every weekend. I think STL can win 8, hell I might even have them as the fav in the NFC West (idk if Vegas agrees).

Uh WASu7, man I wish that was u7.5 instead. Idk I went to ALabama when Jason Campbell was the QB at Auburn and I have to say that he sucked bad for the most part. Yes he lead the team in that 2004 season BUT he has two top 5 picks in his starting backfield and 1, if not both of his starting WRs went in Day 1 of the draft. Also, that D was just bad ass. The problem I have with this is that I think the Gmen are gonna suck this year, I just dont see how they can be good. I dont really like it. They play Miami, Detroit, @GB, @TB, Buffalo and I think they probably win all of these and thats 5 right there. They have the D and O to get it done so it all comes down to Campbell and even though hes not great I think hes good enough with that schedule.

I really like this one. They have to play some brutal games against the NFC South and AFC West. And the D looks absolutely pitiful. I dont even think VY has enough heroics in him to get this team more than 6 wins. They had a good little run last year at the end, but some of those games were just givewn to them or VY stole them. I dont think that happens again.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I'd bet on this if it didn't mean I'd have to root against the Packers:

Packers UNDER 7.5 (-150 on Bodog)

Their schedule is brutal. I don't see a game that they will definitely win. The team did virtually nothing in the off-season to get better. The main hope is that all the young guys (and there were A LOT of them) improve. It could be a good team, but they could stink, too.

Schedule:

PHI
@NYG
SD
@MIN
CHI
WAS
bye
@DEN
@KC
MIN
CAR
@DET - Thanksgiving
@DAL
OAK
@STL
@CHI
DET

I would say the best chances for something as small as a two game winning streak are home versus MIN and CAR and then, hoping that CHI has nothing to play for like they did this past season, at the end at Chicago and home to DET.

I really don't see 8 wins here.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

No one has picked up Pro Prospectus 07 I see.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one has picked up Pro Prospectus 07 I see.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this? Please elaborate.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

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No one has picked up Pro Prospectus 07 I see.

[/ QUOTE ]


my first thought as well

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No one has picked up Pro Prospectus 07 I see.

[/ QUOTE ]


my first thought as well

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come on spill the beans.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

i haven't looked at the other two teams, but pro prospectus would have over 7 as a very good bet for the redskins

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Packers UNDER 7.5 (-150 on Bodog)

well its is -150

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Thread is tl;dr, but pick AZ and the under FTW. I don't think they've covered that since Nixon was in office.

EDIT: and I mean as Eisenhower's VP, in the 50s.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

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No one has picked up Pro Prospectus 07 I see.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure I have, for the 3rd year in a row. The title is my 3 top picks, not theirs, and I am unaware as yet of their 100% success rate.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here are my top 3 choices:

WAS u7.5

Discuss, love any input from those team's fans or anyone else knowledgable.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I'm an idiot...it's u 7.5 not 7.0.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No one has picked up Pro Prospectus 07 I see.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure I have, for the 3rd year in a row. The title is my 3 top picks, not theirs, and I am unaware as yet of their 100% success rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, let's look at Washington's schedule.

MIA
@PHI
NYG
bye
DET
@GB
ARI
@NE
@NYJ
PHI
@DAL
@TB
BUF
CHI
@NYG
@MIN
DAL

You don't see 7 wins in there? Detroit, Miami, Buffalo, NYG, TB, Arizona, Green Bay? I don't know, the Redskins line doesn't seem that good either way - 7 wins seems rather accurate for them. Just curious about what makes you think the 'Skins won't win 7 games.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I don't see 8 wins in there, my typo earlier.
@ TB @GB and BUF don't scream 'win' to me, either. TB won't have the same QB problem as last year, altho GB will...

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I think I LOVE the Giants at u8.5.

a) Tiki Barber retired
b) Tom Coughlin is the head coach
c) that team always has internal drama

I highly doubt they'll have a winning record this season.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

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I think I LOVE the Giants at u8.5.

a) Tiki Barber retired
b) Tom Coughlin is the head coach
c) that team always has internal drama

I highly doubt they'll have a winning record this season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but the line is u7.5.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I absolutely love WAS OVER 7.5 wins. I've heard people on multiple boards pick the under, and every reason I hear is BSPesque.

About everything that could go wrong for the Skins did so last year. For the first time in recent memory, the Skins actually had a really good offseason by making smart personnel decisions. This year's team should def. be comparable to the 2005 Skins who went 10-6 and advanced to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

They've greatly upgraded their QB w/Campbell starting, and Portis is healthy (everyone forgets he was a consensus top 4 rb at this time last year.) Plus this is year 2 of Al Saunders offense.

On defense, they've made upgrades at LB, S, and CB (Fletcher, Landry, and Smoot). They actually have depth in their secondary. They weren't able to address their Dline, but having Griffin healthy is a big upgrade in and of itself, and 2nd year DT's Golston and Montgomery should be an upgrade over last year at the other DT spot. Also, Carter really came on last year once Phillips got healthy.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

How much are you putting on the Over at +130?
Does the fact that the market has the over at +120/+130 make you feel differently about your analysis?

What do you think their NFC East record will be?

No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Jason Campbell was a waste of a 1st rnd draft choice. All of his success in college, which wasn't that much was because of teams playing 8 and someties 9 in the box to stop Brown and Williams.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

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Jason Campbell was a waste of a 1st rnd draft choice. All of his success in college, which wasn't that much was because of teams playing 8 and someties 9 in the box to stop Brown and Williams.

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I'll take FO's remarkably accurate QB college predicator over your post.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Jason Campbell was a waste of a 1st rnd draft choice. All of his success in college, which wasn't that much was because of teams playing 8 and someties 9 in the box to stop Brown and Williams.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take FO's remarkably accurate QB college predicator over your post.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes up for the Joba/Hughes hate. I'll accept this as a peace offering of sorts between you and rationality.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

I hate Joba and Hughes?

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate Joba and Hughes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Or have mad man-love for Teix/Gagne?

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Your reading comprehension really sucked if those are the conclusions you came up with.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.


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I think Cambell could be fine. He has looked good throughout mini-camp and he was brought along smart. He understands the system well.

However, the whispers out of Skins training camp is that Portis is not 100%. Betts should be able to pick up the load until Portis is healthy.

The secondary is very week. They added another big hitting, poor coverage safety and Fred Smoot who they were delighted to get rid of when he was in his prime.

I still think if they get some positive varience and are able to get turnovers and avoid turning the ball over they could be over 7.5. I would say 11:9 they hit the under.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
How much are you putting on the Over at +130?
Does the fact that the market has the over at +120/+130 make you feel differently about your analysis?

What do you think their NFC East record will be?

No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't put anything down yet, because I figure the line will continue to move in my favor, and at worse stay where it is. The +120/+130 obv. makes me like the over more, but this still has plenty of value if it were even. When I bet season overs, I usually don't make the wagers until at least the middle of preseason just to insure there isn't a catastrophic injury.

The biggest question on offense is Wade at G, imo. And btw, Samuels just went down in practice and looks like he'll be out for a month with an MCL sprain. He should be ready for the regular season, and they're keeping Wade at G in the meantime and having Fabini replace CS. If he was out for the year then that would almost certainly gurantee a 6 win season. This is where I'm most worried about their depth, the oline.

I expect the Skins to go at least 3-3, and probably 4-2 in the nfc east. They could easily sweep the giants, who I expect to be a trainwreck this season. They play @ nyg in week 15, and it's very possible that the gmen will have thrown in the towel on their season at that point. Their week 2 game @philly is much more winnable than usual, since McNabb won't be 100%. In fact, if you look at all of the skins road games, aside from New England, all of them are winnable (although they'll obv. be dogs in most of them).

My opinion on Smoot differs from yours. He was never a good fit in Minny, and never "felt comfortable," in his own words. He was very good when he was w/Wash. before, and I expect him to return to at least near that level of play.

I'm pretty high on Campbell. He looked really good last year getting his first experience in the league. What you saw out of him last year is his floor, and I expect him to be significantly improved. I've heard better reports about him this offseason than other young qb's like Smith, Cutler, Leinart, etc., and now the offense will be able to take full advantage of Moss. Cooley is a top 5 te, and Randle El/Lloyd will be much more effective in the offense this year. People underestimate how wretched Brunell was last season. Portis is 100% last I heard.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

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[ QUOTE ]
No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Cambell could be fine. He has looked good throughout mini-camp and he was brought along smart. He understands the system well.

However, the whispers out of Skins training camp is that Portis is not 100%. Betts should be able to pick up the load until Portis is healthy.

The secondary is very week. They added another big hitting, poor coverage safety and Fred Smoot who they were delighted to get rid of when he was in his prime.

I still think if they get some positive varience and are able to get turnovers and avoid turning the ball over they could be over 7.5. I would say 11:9 they hit the under.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are these whispers you've heard of about Portis? I haven't heard anything but positive news, saying he's fully recovered from knee tendonitis that affected him earlier this summer. In fact, he supposedly has been running his standard sprint times. Or are you hearing something new about his shoulder?

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Maybe whispers in his head?

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

CarlSpackler,

I know this is SE, and the discussion usually is terrible for betting. But what does "plenty of value" mean?

Also, what do you know about football that separates you from that thousands of other people who do this for a living?

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Cambell could be fine. He has looked good throughout mini-camp and he was brought along smart. He understands the system well.

However, the whispers out of Skins training camp is that Portis is not 100%. Betts should be able to pick up the load until Portis is healthy.

The secondary is very week. They added another big hitting, poor coverage safety and Fred Smoot who they were delighted to get rid of when he was in his prime.

I still think if they get some positive varience and are able to get turnovers and avoid turning the ball over they could be over 7.5. I would say 11:9 they hit the under.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are these whispers you've heard of about Portis? I haven't heard anything but positive news, saying he's fully recovered from knee tendonitis that affected him earlier this summer. In fact, he supposedly has been running his standard sprint times. Or are you hearing something new about his shoulder?

[/ QUOTE ]

Favoring his shoulder and concerns about both his strength in that shoulder and his mental approach. Don't expect to see much of him this preseason.

Although, yes I do also hear voices in my head. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

People say a bet has plenty of value if they think it is solidly +EV for them.

It's just another way of saying, "I think this bet is +EV, but sports betting has such ridiculous [censored] variance that who the [censored] knows what will really happen."

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
People say a bet has plenty of value if they think it is solidly +EV for them.

It's just another way of saying, "I think this bet is +EV, but sports betting has such ridiculous [censored] variance that who the [censored] knows what will really happen."

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is saying you suck at betting sports and have no clue how much to wager or really do analysis.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People say a bet has plenty of value if they think it is solidly +EV for them.

It's just another way of saying, "I think this bet is +EV, but sports betting has such ridiculous [censored] variance that who the [censored] knows what will really happen."

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is saying you suck at betting sports and have no clue how much to wager or really do analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

christ this forum is full of nits

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People say a bet has plenty of value if they think it is solidly +EV for them.

It's just another way of saying, "I think this bet is +EV, but sports betting has such ridiculous [censored] variance that who the [censored] knows what will really happen."

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is saying you suck at betting sports and have no clue how much to wager or really do analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

christ this forum is full of nits

[/ QUOTE ]

Or you don't understand that if you expect this wager to win 55% at -110 (normal), and the price of it moves from -110 to +130. You are now wagering 20.3% of your bankroll on it instead of 5.5%?

Or if the claim of significant edge was actually that it would win 60% of the time, then the size of your wager would jump from 16% to 29.23% of your bankroll.

Yes, this is nitty. Asking someone to explain themselves when they provide no back-up to their statements is nitty.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
CarlSpackler,

I know this is SE, and the discussion usually is terrible for betting. But what does "plenty of value" mean?

Also, what do you know about football that separates you from that thousands of other people who do this for a living?

[/ QUOTE ]

Plenty of value: I think the appropriate line should be Washington season total over 8.5 +100. The public obv. disagrees. Isn't it uncommon for an nfl season o/u to be off by more than 1 game? Is this not a big enough edge to bet? Fwiw, I don't do a comprehensive study of every nfl team's season o/u, I just look at the lines, and the ones that jump out at me I'll then study and research thoroughly. The end result is it's usually not a bet, and I've only actually bet one season total each of the last couple years (Was. under last year, and NYJ under the year before).

What separates me from the people who do this for a living? I have a full time day job, so the time I'm able to invest in this endeavor is limited. I'll be blunt. The past few years since I started getting serious about betting football, I put in about 20 - 25 hours of work on it a week (mostly focused on nfl games) usually through Sept. and my results will be good to great. Then I get burned out.

What happens next is predictable. I start getting overconfident and lazy, don't put in the necessary work needed to be successful, and my results suffer. I do bet less per unit the vast majority of the time the rest of the season when I know I haven't done my homework, but I really shouldn't even be making most of the plays I do the last 3/4 of the season. My best plays the latter half of the season are usually when I decide not to play any games. End result is I'm up or down a little at the end of the year betting football.

As far as the Redskins go, I've been following them very closely this whole offseason (which I've never done before). I'm not just talking about their FA signings and draft picks. I'm talking OTA's, schematic changes on defense which should fix glaring defficiencies from last year, the work Campbell has put in at Redskins Park this offseason, etc. I would be shocked if there is an nfl qb that has put in more work this offseason than Campbell, btw.

Btw, Smoot is a huge upgrade over Kenny Wright, who was a below average zone coverage corner who was a complete misfit for Williams' defensive scheme. Landry should be a huge upgrade at the safety spot opposite Taylor, once he's learned the system. And speaking of Taylor, he received horrible coaching last year, with one coach telling him to do one thing, and another one teaching him completely different techniques. Rocky McIntosh will be a significant upgrade at WLB, as he's now comfortable with the system. Fletcher is a monster upgrade at MLB, and he already knows Williams' system. Griffin being healthy is huge for this team as he's their best dlineman. Marcus Washington is supposedly all the way back from hip surgery, although I'm going to reserve judgement until I see how he plays in the preseason.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

Carl,

I'll go with that. I mean while I don't agree with all of it. Atleast it seems like you have a well reasoned opinion that atleast seems to be more thought out than most. Hopefully you've crunched your numbers fairly well.

Good luck.

Re: NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People say a bet has plenty of value if they think it is solidly +EV for them.

It's just another way of saying, "I think this bet is +EV, but sports betting has such ridiculous [censored] variance that who the [censored] knows what will really happen."

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that is saying you suck at betting sports and have no clue how much to wager or really do analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

christ this forum is full of nits

[/ QUOTE ]

Or you don't understand that if you expect this wager to win 55% at -110 (normal), and the price of it moves from -110 to +130. You are now wagering 20.3% of your bankroll on it instead of 5.5%?

Or if the claim of significant edge was actually that it would win 60% of the time, then the size of your wager would jump from 16% to 29.23% of your bankroll.

Yes, this is nitty. Asking someone to explain themselves when they provide no back-up to their statements is nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

Btw, when I said even earlier, I really meant +100. That's what I was thinking in my head, don't know why I typed even. If it's even w/10% vig it's obv. alot less attractive.