Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

I have been reading about precision shooting and talking to an old friend who is a serious craps player (Full table in his basement) He says that by setting the dice and holding it a certain way you can change the probability of dice by going through a consistent motion.

In theory I can see how this would work but doesn't the deflection on the craps layout and walls randomize any attempt at setting the dice?

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Its all superstition if you ask me. Some like to shoot standing next to stick others next to base dealer. Its all luck no matter what he/she does with the dice. Those same people are the ones who will blame anyone that says " 7 " when theres a point and they out 7 or blame the dealer if the dice flip onto a seven and they out 7 as well. Its all luck, the only skill maybe betting patterns you use but even then its tough.

Edit : Betting pattern i see a lot of regulars play is 1 pass line bet and 2 come bets all with max odds. At least they are the ones who have stuck around with the same bankroll over the years.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

jh12547,

Your post is useless and off topic. Betting patterns are worthless, and having nothing to do with dice control.

Re: dice control ... the following is a POTM from the green chip boards at BJ21.com from 2006.

Posted By: DD' on 5 Mar 06, 9:09 pm


After investing quite a lot of time and a good bit of money in lessons, equipment, etc, I have decided to all but quit craps. While I had a good bit of success the first few months, actually winning over $100,000, I subsequently lost it all back and believe that my good fortune was nothing more than variance. I have met and shot with many who consider themselves to be skilled shooters. I have not been impressed with anyone and have yet to see anyone I consider to be a serious advantage player betting real money. The only people I see claiming that they do well are those selling books, equipment, and seminars.

Now, I am not saying that I do not believe that some small level of influence is possible or that it is not possible to obtain a small edge under some very narrow set of conditions. But I do not believe it is viable as a serious revenue generator. If anyone should see me at the tables in Vegas please don't jump in betting money even if it looks like I'm betting a good bit. I consider some tables to give me around zero ev and will play them on occasion if I have extra value added, such as RFB, airfare, cash coupons, free tournament entries, etc. I have a sufficient bankroll that I can afford to do this as a comp hustle on a limited basis. But my team is no longer financing or interested in craps what so ever. I now look at it the same way as video poker players who play games close to zero ev and them come out slightly ahead when adding in various extra value things they get from the casino.

I am not posting this to get into a debate with anyone. But I do know that others, as I do, look at what other serious advantage players are involved in something as a guide as to whether they will invest time and money in something. I do not wish the fact that it is known that I have spent some time with this to influence anyone in a positive way. The amount of time and money it will take to get anywhere with this, which I'm not sure is even possible, I believe would be much better spent sharpening skills at any other type of advantage play.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

How does a casino rate your craps play? If you bet 10 dollars on the pass line and then back it up with $20 in odds do they calculate your bet at $10 or $30? Also what if you were betting on come and don't come at the same time, but one w/ odds. Would they consider it a $20 bet or $0 cause they essentially cancel each other out?

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
jh12547,

Your post is useless and off topic. Betting patterns are worthless, and having nothing to do with dice control.

Re: dice control ... the following is a POTM from the green chip boards at BJ21.com from 2006.

Posted By: DD' on 5 Mar 06, 9:09 pm


After investing quite a lot of time and a good bit of money in lessons, equipment, etc, I have decided to all but quit craps. While I had a good bit of success the first few months, actually winning over $100,000, I subsequently lost it all back and believe that my good fortune was nothing more than variance. I have met and shot with many who consider themselves to be skilled shooters. I have not been impressed with anyone and have yet to see anyone I consider to be a serious advantage player betting real money. The only people I see claiming that they do well are those selling books, equipment, and seminars.

Now, I am not saying that I do not believe that some small level of influence is possible or that it is not possible to obtain a small edge under some very narrow set of conditions. But I do not believe it is viable as a serious revenue generator. If anyone should see me at the tables in Vegas please don't jump in betting money even if it looks like I'm betting a good bit. I consider some tables to give me around zero ev and will play them on occasion if I have extra value added, such as RFB, airfare, cash coupons, free tournament entries, etc. I have a sufficient bankroll that I can afford to do this as a comp hustle on a limited basis. But my team is no longer financing or interested in craps what so ever. I now look at it the same way as video poker players who play games close to zero ev and them come out slightly ahead when adding in various extra value things they get from the casino.

I am not posting this to get into a debate with anyone. But I do know that others, as I do, look at what other serious advantage players are involved in something as a guide as to whether they will invest time and money in something. I do not wish the fact that it is known that I have spent some time with this to influence anyone in a positive way. The amount of time and money it will take to get anywhere with this, which I'm not sure is even possible, I believe would be much better spent sharpening skills at any other type of advantage play.

[/ QUOTE ]


Sorry if you didnt quite get it. My point was there is no skill in craps even for someone setting the dice and throwing them the same way everytime. I was just trying to point that out and what i thought that the only skill MIGHT be betting patterns. Next time i will just do the same as you and repost someone elses words who was basically saying the same as what i did anyhow. No skill its all variance. Ill try to explain it in english next time dummy!

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How does a casino rate your craps play? If you bet 10 dollars on the pass line and then back it up with $20 in odds do they calculate your bet at $10 or $30? Also what if you were betting on come and don't come at the same time, but one w/ odds. Would they consider it a $20 bet or $0 cause they essentially cancel each other out?

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At least where i work for question 1 youd get a 10$ average. Odds or on either pass bets or come bets never count towards your rate. For question 2 if you had 10 on each come/dont come or pass/dont pass you are rated at 20$.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was just trying to point that out and what i thought that the only skill MIGHT be betting patterns. Next time i will just do the same as you and repost someone elses words who was basically saying the same as what i did anyhow. No skill its all variance. Ill try to explain it in english next time dummy!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in your theory of how betting patterns represent skill -- using either your words or somebody elses.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry if you didnt quite get it. My point was there is no skill in craps even for someone setting the dice and throwing them the same way everytime. I was just trying to point that out and what i thought that the only skill MIGHT be betting patterns. Next time i will just do the same as you and repost someone elses words who was basically saying the same as what i did anyhow. No skill its all variance. Ill try to explain it in english next time dummy!

[/ QUOTE ]

Your post remains useless and off topic. Please try harder to contribute something useful.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

It's been several years since I spent much time on blackjack boards, but I would like to point out that DD' is one of the best posters, with a solid grasp of theory and many years of practical experience at advantage play. If he says that dice control in craps is not a viable advantage play strategy, I believe it.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

BPB

What dont you get. Im still trying to figure out what useful info you posted. The OP asked the question of setting the dice or precision shooting. I said it doesnt matter what anyone does with the dice before they shoot. Its all variance and Luck. No skill involved whatsoever. All I said was the same thing that you copied from DD's post but I said it in less words.
My point for the betting patterns is the players Ive seen over the years that actually dont go broke are the ones that stick to the same common betting pattern. Which IMO and I quote "IMO" is a passline bet and 2 come bets with full odds.
I am definitely no expert but I do have 10,000+ hours of either dealing or flooring craps over the years so i speaking from what ive seen. That is all.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's been several years since I spent much time on blackjack boards, but I would like to point out that DD' is one of the best posters, with a solid grasp of theory and many years of practical experience at advantage play. If he says that dice control in craps is not a viable advantage play strategy, I believe it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is your take on Wong On Dice? I'm not writing this to be provocative but I know there has been a bit of controversey surrounding his book. At the same time he is respected for his knowledge of advantage play.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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What is your take on Wong On Dice? I'm not writing this to be provocative but I know there has been a bit of controversey surrounding his book. At the same time he is respected for his knowledge of advantage play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the romantic concept of great gamblers as brilliant mathematicians who are otherwise normal people started with Thorpe. What I've found is that there are some who fit that mold. And most are quite a bit brighter than average. But, what they almost universally have in common is they're hustlers.

Wong is capitalizing on a reputation and an image. He's selling.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

jh 12547

I very rarely post but your stupidity in this thread has gotten under my skin. Your addition to this thread is worhtless and you are most likely worthless as well. Please die.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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jh 12547

I very rarely post but your stupidity in this thread has gotten under my skin. Your addition to this thread is worhtless and you are most likely worthless as well. Please die.

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Actuall buddy it was a stupid question if you ask me but i was only to try to give my opinion. If you can read i think i made the most sense out of anyone in this thread in answerin his question. If you dont like it dont read it and then you can go [censored] yourself.
Its so easy for people like you to sit behind your keyboard and talk [censored]. Really wish you had balls to say that to my face. Lol

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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Actuall buddy it was a stupid question if you ask me but i was only to try to give my opinion.


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A good advantage player knows that there aren't any stupid questions when looking for an edge. What is stupid is drawing conclusions based on incomplete, insufficient, or, in your case, utterly absent data. I posted a few paragraphs from an individual who has spent a lot of time in determining if there's any significant edge to be had with dice setting. You posted an opinion that playing the pass line with full odds and 2 come bets with full odds is the best way to go. (Which is absurd, since betting just the pass with no come is obviously going to lose less ... and betting without the odds is going to have no effect other than to smooth out the variance)

The OP didn't ask people to post their random craps thoughts. He asked if anyone had information re: dice setting. You had and continue to have none, yet you keep posting.



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If you can read i think i made the most sense out of anyone in this thread in answerin his question.


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I don't see how any reasonable person could draw that conclusion.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
jh 12547

I very rarely post but your stupidity in this thread has gotten under my skin. Your addition to this thread is worhtless and you are most likely worthless as well. Please die.


[/ QUOTE ]
Actuall buddy it was a stupid question if you ask me but i was only to try to give my opinion. If you can read i think i made the most sense out of anyone in this thread in answerin his question. If you dont like it dont read it and then you can go [censored] yourself.
Its so easy for people like you to sit behind your keyboard and talk [censored]. Really wish you had balls to say that to my face. Lol


[/ QUOTE ]
HAHAHA
Your anger amuses me. Thank you for the PM as well. Instead of [censored] myself, I laughed my ass off at you. I'm glad I have caused at least a small amount of misery in your life.

I love how you accuse me of somehow being a coward because I am behind a keyboard talking [censored]. Meanwhile you are doing the same. I do have the balls to say that to your face. Please tell me that you deal craps in A.C. I would like to meet and further discuss your idiocy. In the meantime don't make the same mistake that your father did. Please castrate yourself so as not to pass your worthless and moronic genes to the next generation.

Enjoy your lucrative and fulfilling career as a craps dealer. I hope one day to be able to achieve like you have in life. Please hijack this thread and further explain how you became so knowledgable/awesome/accomplished. I am dying to know.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Unfortunately you 2 are both morons. I respect what Bpb posted that DD said. Again tho what did he say. He said he won 100k then lost it. He also said he was quitting the game because he came to a conclusion that it was all luck. He also said he thinks theres a way to beat it or gain an edge but he hasnt come up with any. Well no [censored] who didnt know that. Im sure he is intelligent but hat did he actually say in that post that was helpful. If either of you could point out something in there that i missed please find it and let me know. Again to repeat i said the same exact thing that it was all luck but i didnt throw in all the other BS and you guys jump on me. Go figure.

As for my opinion on craps i get all my info from people that have been around the game for 1000's of hours over 25+ years. To me it makes sense to listen to them as compared to one person online. Im done with this thread since i cant stand arguing with people who have no idea what the hell they are saying and actually didnt even attempt to say anything useful in this thread except to trash me.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Gentlemen:

The only way to settle this dispute is in a 10K fight, yo.

Sincerely,
BBV

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

I didn't think this thread would cause so much drama. I apologize.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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I didn't think this thread would cause so much drama. I apologize.

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Don't apologize -- we come to see the crashes.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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What is your take on Wong On Dice? I'm not writing this to be provocative but I know there has been a bit of controversey surrounding his book. At the same time he is respected for his knowledge of advantage play.

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I had a conversation with Wong at a dinner last year about his craps system. I played blackjack professionally for years and always had great respect for the man until that point. It was obvious that he was either fooling himself, or more likely fooling others for profit. He was trying to argue that there was a small edge based on a sample size that didn't come close to justifying it.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Wow, bpb and giftgiver really came out of nowhere to be d*cks in this thread.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

LOL JH

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Mathmatically speaking and Physics speaking With enough training and force and practice I could punch through the side of a U.S. Aircraft Carrier.

Does not mean anyone on earth can do it.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Echoing Govman -- I've said before, and I'll say again ...

I've seen some amazing things in my life. I've seen close up magic and card manipulation done right in front of my face -- I knew what they were doing -- and I still couldn't see it being done. There are some phenomenal technicians in the world of gaming and sleight-of-hand. Many of these "tricks" take years to perfect, and are so perfectly executed that it's nearly incomprehensible.

So, understand, I do not doubt that the skill could be learned. That is, if the dice hit the rubber below the diamond pattern. Otherwise, I think it's impossible.

The many years I've spent inside, outside, above, and around gaming tables tells me that game doesn't exist for more than a few rolls.

It would be very easy for any proponent of dice setting to prove. Simply explain how the dice are going to be manipulated, video the throw in slow motion, and show that there is a correlation between the predicted motion of the dice and the actual motion of the dice.

Not a prediction of a win followed by a win. This really isn't that difficult to prove -- either the dice behave as predicted, or they behave randomly.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

I'm a newcomer to this board, but I'll put on my flameproof suit and offer a modest reply.

I am a long-time crapshooter and have read just about every book written on craps. I've read all of Scoblette's books, as well as Wong's volume. I'm always interested in anything that will help "get the edge" in a crap game, so I try to keep up with the latest in theories concerning the game. I've meant to attend a "controlled shooting" seminar, but just haven't been able to find the time or justify the expense.

Despite all of the claims of controlled shooting advocates, I believe they are unlikely at least two reasons. First, the seminars are frequently held on casino properties and, so far, the casinos have instituted no countermeasures against dice setters or controlled shooters.

Regarding the first point, you don't see outfits staging any blackjack card counting seminars at any casinos do you? If the casinos thought that controlled shooters could get even a small edge, they'd be banning crapshooters with regularity, NOT hosting classes in how to bust their chops. Now, you'll see the claim, "My methods are so effective that I've been banned from Las Vegas casinos." in some promotional materials. This might be true, but what they won't tell you is that, "I was such an obnoxious, abusive drunk that I've been kicked out of numerous joints even though no crapshooter in Nevada history has ever been banned for being an 'advantage player'." If the hotels host the seminars and don't ban them from playing, how effective do you think their methods can be?

Secondly, I have only seen one crap table in Las Vegas with any sort of device to stop a gaffed or controlled shot. I remember one place had a metal ridge running through the middle of the table (across the hardway bets on the layout) to stop a "blanket roll"), but other than that…nothing that I've noticed. If the casinos were experiencing a drop in the win don't you think that by now they have done something like change the makeup of the surface behind the pass line at the ends of the table to stop the "killing" of the dice after hitting the wall? Or how about installing bumpers of platforms of different heights at the ends of the table so the dice take another tumble after hitting the wall. Or how about making the players use dice cups? You do that in a Yahtzee game in your kitchen! Don't you think that the casinos would do that if they thought their bankroll was in jeopardy?

When I see the casinos change the craps table and procedures in even a fraction of the ways that they've done for blackjack, then I'll be a believer.

Until then, I'll take the word of Sam Grafstein, who wrote the very best book ever concerning the game 21 years ago The Dice Doctor, Revised & Expanded when he says, "Just roll the dice 20 inches. Give me ONE BOUNCE, and I'll personally book your bets all day." Granted Sam passed away before the advent of today's "controlled shooters," but absent any evidence to the contrary, I believe that he's still correct.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

I know it's circumstantial, but remember that Thorp held his book-signings in casinos, and nobody doubts that blackjack can actually be advantage play. Casinos also continue to spread blackjack, even though there are some positive players out there.

Of course the countermeasures are weaker at craps than blackjack, but that could simply be the ease of learning to count vs learning to dice set.

Just because there are (at most) very few +EV dice-setters doesn't mean there aren't any. (And that's why we argue about this all the time on this board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

I know guys who doing this and doing well.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

IMO i don't think its easy to do it well enough to get an advantage, however i don't think it's Impossible, just unlikely.

http://crapspit.proboards25.com/index.cgi?board=setting

Check out that link for all theories both ways on whether dice setting really works.

laslty on the whole thing about hosting gambling signings and classes at casinos. They are actually good for casinos whether they work correctly or not.
The reason being that probably over 90% of the people who try these things don't take the time to learn everything and rush into it and do it incorrectly that they more than make up for the people who do it so well that they win a little bit.

i can't find a link to it but on a special i saw on thorp they said that due to his book release the number of black jack players sky rocketed in the casinos as it helped increase the populairty of blackjack. Many novice counters applied his theories incorrectly and gained no advantage of the casino and simply lost money they would not have if they hadn't read his book.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a newcomer to this board, but I'll put on my flameproof suit and offer a modest reply...
If the casinos were experiencing a drop in the win don't you think that by now they have done something like change the makeup of the surface behind the pass line at the ends of the table to stop the "killing" of the dice after hitting the wall?

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Also a newcomer here - and a dice setting believer. My observation is that more and more casinos are resurfacing their tables to add more cushion, making it more difficult for controlled shooters to "drop" the dice off the back wall.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also a newcomer here - and a dice setting believer. My observation is that more and more casinos are resurfacing their tables to add more cushion, making it more difficult for controlled shooters to "drop" the dice off the back wall.

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This is simply adding credibility to the "dice setting" proponents -- By adding counter-measures, their offense is validated. Any idiot who's read Sun Tzu would know this response. And while most of the floor personnel in a casino are idiots -- there is management. The 1 out of 100 who understands strategy would do exactly as you expect, making it "more difficult" but not "impossible" -- wiping the sweat from their brow as they navigated and defended themselves from your tautological strategy.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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BPB

The OP asked the question of setting the dice or precision shooting. I said it doesnt matter what anyone does with the dice before they shoot. Its all variance and Luck. No skill involved whatsoever.

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You are wrong. Magicians have trained themselves - to just quote a random example not using dice - to take a regular playing card and 'pass' it back in forth with their fingertips held shoulder-width apart.

Literally, push a playing card with an index finger back and forth btw hands, over a 2' wide space, no tricks, no wires, no strings. It took Ricky Jay 8-10 years of practicing an hour every day to master that skill.

The same dedication applied to dice throwing, hitting below the knobbed pyramids, would certainly become somewhat non-random, adjusting for huge variance, of course. Most people won't spend 3650 hours perfecting this skill though, and eventually the casino would step in if you always hit the low part of the wall and won.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BPB

The OP asked the question of setting the dice or precision shooting. I said it doesnt matter what anyone does with the dice before they shoot. Its all variance and Luck. No skill involved whatsoever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong. Magicians have trained themselves - to just quote a random example not using dice - to take a regular playing card and 'pass' it back in forth with their fingertips held shoulder-width apart.

Literally, push a playing card with an index finger back and forth btw hands, over a 2' wide space, no tricks, no wires, no strings. It took Ricky Jay 8-10 years of practicing an hour every day to master that skill.

The same dedication applied to dice throwing, hitting below the knobbed pyramids, would certainly become somewhat non-random, adjusting for huge variance, of course. Most people won't spend 3650 hours perfecting this skill though, and eventually the casino would step in if you always hit the low part of the wall and won.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also people learn to rig coin flips.

If you learned to shoot with precision, you could always throw in the same spot but start differently so you lose, thereby eliminating the risk of getting caught.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

DI (Dice Influencing) is real. The very fact that so many people doubt this is also part of the reason why casinos have yet to directly address it. It's not nearly as prevalent as card-counting for blackjack became (which meant less and less casinos offering to stay on soft 17, allow splitting aces, and more places now offering only the 6 to 5 blackjack payout on double-deck games), but that does not mean it doesn't exist. I wish AlienBoy would post, as he's studied this technique and has employed it at small stakes.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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DI (Dice Influencing) is real. . The very fact that so many people doubt this is also part of the reason ....

[/ QUOTE ]

Aliens from Jupiter must be real too using the same reasoning.

Jimbo

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

Here is the problem---

If: Precision shooting could be done, it would be exremely rare, or the casinos would have dealt with it quickly.

Anyone who invested the thousands of hours to develop it would have a rare skill indeed, something like those unicyclists that can throw dishes onto their heads---not something that could be taught in a weekend or in a book.

So you have this ability that nets you a hefty$$. What do you do? Brag to your friends? Post a blog? Join 2+2 and tell all?

Not saying it is definitely out there, but anyone who can do it isn't posting in here.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

No such thing as dice setting, just natural born shooters.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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No such thing as dice setting, just natural born shooters.

[/ QUOTE ]
Serious? Or are you shooting me?

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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No such thing as dice setting, just natural born shooters.

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Serious? Or are you shooting me?

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I've been a natural born shooter betting the don't pass for many years son.

Re: Craps: Any validity in precision shooting?
 

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No such thing as dice setting, just natural born shooters.

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Serious? Or are you shooting me?

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I've been a natural born shooter betting the don't pass for many years son.

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QFT