Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I talked about this hand with gobbo and others, but I would like to hear some more responses. Maybe it's as straight forward as gobbo think.

Main event, late in day 3 (last level of the day). 2nd hand in a new table, that's about to break too. I raise KJhh in the co with 270k~ to start the hand. I think the blinds are 3k-6k/1k.

I raise to 18k, sb calls(50~ years old, but obviously no reads, 2nd hand at the table. Has me covered).

Flop 752hh. He checks, I bet 25k.

(Following the rest of the hand, I should have checked behind, but I didn't think his play was very likely)

He instantly says I'm all in.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

dump it

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

pretty sure this is one of those stare into his soul moments.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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(Following the rest of the hand, I should have checked behind, but I didn't think his play was very likely)

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I don't think you should check behind.

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He instantly says I'm all in.

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Fold.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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dump it

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you still have 227k on Day 4

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

Can anyone try and figure out what the huge overbet all in means? He can comfortably raise a sizable amount. I was shocked when he moved all in. Very visably.

BTW, how much does your opinion change if I had AJhh?

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

It's the nut flush draw or a nervous older guy with a huge hand. Either one is very bad for you.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

Should point out that he wasn't the least nervous. I mean, later on he turned out to be very loud and obnoxious, but at the time he just seemed highly confident. If that was a strong is weak type of behaviour i can't tell, but it was obvious he's not the quiet old guy stereotype.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

i fold

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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dump it

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you still have 227k on Day 4

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Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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Can anyone try and figure out what the huge overbet all in means? He can comfortably raise a sizable amount. I was shocked when he moved all in. Very visably.

BTW, how much does your opinion change if I had AJhh?

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He's out of position, assuming he's not making a moronic push with a set or overpair, the push means he has a huge draw, either a pair and a flush draw, 2 overs with the nut flush draw, open ended str8 flush draw, or flush draw with an inside straight draw. Playing huge draws OOP is a pain in the ass, and overshoving may be the best way to play them.

Given the very real possibility that he's drawing to a bigger flush than you (or since you've never seen him before, that he has a set), you have to fold. Against a pair and the nut flush draw (which if I had to pick one hand that he has, that would be it), you're in serious trouble.

AhJh is much more interesting. I think it wouldn't have happened, because my money is on him having the Ah here. Against a random opponent, I'd probably fold because I'd be worried that my overs were not outs, but I'm really not sure what I would do.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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dump it

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you still have 227k on Day 4

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this really has nothing to do with it for me, but fold.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

Funny. The initial responses I got were that I should have called. I feel better now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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Funny. The initial responses I got were that I should have called. I feel better now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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i honestly can't beleive you saying that matt and gobbo were telling you call. This is such a clear fold its unreal to me that good players are saying call.

[censored], we don't even have our best case scenario except for VERY rare times. (tt is possible... but so are bigger pairs, and biggers flush draws are reallllllly likely).

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I can't see what you are ahead of that would make this move besides something like 8h9h.

I haven't played in any tournaments 1/500th of this buy-in before, but I think this is a very easy fold.

I play preflop and the flop the same way too.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

yea this seems to be a pretty standard fold. wtf check behind on flop? how results oriented can you get...

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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It's the nut flush draw or a nervous older guy with a huge hand. Either one is very bad for you.

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My initial reaction when Yuv first told me the hand was to call, but after further analysis, I really agree with the above statement here. Even if we learned later that he wasn't a "nervous old guy," you still have to run with whatever read you did have at the time, which wasn't much at all.

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might be good enough to get me towards a call because we're never killed by another FD, we occasionally kill another FD, and our A is more likely to be an out when we're up against a big pair.

Just to confirm something, we'd rather call with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], right?

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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yea this seems to be a pretty standard fold. wtf check behind on flop? how results oriented can you get...

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hmm, very result oriented. That's why I said "following what happened, I should have checked behind". If I thought he c/r me all in X% of the time, checking behind might not be that bad. Obviously that didn't seem very likely.

Alright, since it seem to be established as an easy fold, I tanked for a bit and folded. He showed me the As. The way he flipped it over (seemingly uncaring to which card it was) makes me feel very confident that he had AA.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

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We're hardly deep-stacked...

edit: Anyway, I'm jamming in that spot 100% of the time, and I don't really think that's close.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

it's a fold either way but which flop card is the nonheart is important

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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Just to confirm something, we'd rather call with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], right?

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we instacall with that. but yes, KJ is a fold.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call?

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This was my question too.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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It's the nut flush draw or a nervous older guy with a huge hand. Either one is very bad for you.

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My initial reaction when Yuv first told me the hand was to call, but after further analysis, I really agree with the above statement here. Even if we learned later that he wasn't a "nervous old guy," you still have to run with whatever read you did have at the time, which wasn't much at all.

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might be good enough to get me towards a call because we're never killed by another FD, we occasionally kill another FD, and our A is more likely to be an out when we're up against a big pair.

Just to confirm something, we'd rather call with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], right?

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Hmmm, good question - I'd of course rather have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] there, naturally. I'd probably like 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] just because I know my 9 and 7 are likely outs - it's possible the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has the K and J both being no g00t.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I'm pretty sure the 7 was a heart, Aaron. I can't remember if it was the 5 or the 2.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call?

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This was my question too.

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The avaerage semi-aggro live player will CR/fold with a decent amount of hands here. I think this is a super-easy jam.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

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I think you always fold to a raise here.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

no i would definitely jam over 70k, he could be raise/folding his 88 to see where its at, for instance.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

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I think you always fold to a raise here.

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pretty much always jam if he raises to 70k.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

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I think you always fold to a raise here.

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pretty much always jam if he raises to 70k.

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Agreed. His range is wide (including overpair, top pair, middle pair, pure move, flush draw). You have serious fold equity, and from 9-15 outs. You probably even get a nut flush draw to fold as well (unless he has a pair), so you don't have to worry about the flush cards not being outs.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I dunno I think its pretty close you need 40.8% to breakeven and versus a pessimistic range of { KK-77, 55, 22, AhQh, AhTh, Ah8h } hero is at 41.41%.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I havent read replies but I think checking behind is a monumental mistake.

I think the flop is a fold. AhXh is closer, 9h6h is closer, stuff like that.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

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I think you always fold to a raise here.

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pretty much always jam if he raises to 70k.

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Wait, we're always folding to a jam but always jamming to a raise? Isn't that a giant leak?

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

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What If he raises to 70k? Do you guys fold, shove, call? I had a lot of problem dealing with big draws deep stacked, when facing resistence. Online you just jam it cause you're always priced in. Here this wasn't the case.

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I think you always fold to a raise here.

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pretty much always jam if he raises to 70k.

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Wait, we're always folding to a jam but always jamming to a raise? Isn't that a giant leak?

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no it is not.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

fold; same thing others said - nut fd is too likely, and even if not your pair outs are tainted. I think I call with the nfd.

And definitely jam if he makes a normal raise.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

When you told me this hand you said you had just over 200k when you started the hand. Obviously having 270k at the beginning makes a huge difference. I think having 210k or so at the beginning of the hand makes it a pretty easy call. In the new situation, yeah, you have to fold. In that situation, I think the situation where you have outs regardless of what he has would make it a call because random old nits sometimes show up here with T7o for some reason.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I usually check flop with stacks this big as well, as played fold.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

pretty good information in this thread!

i prob bet less on the flop bc of stacks- 20'll do it!

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

I agree with everything that every good player in this thread has said.

Flop bet is elementary.

Fold to his shove.

Shove if he makes a normal raise

Call if we have the NFD or a pair and a draw.

Re: Is this an instacall for you? (WSOP ME big draw)
 

Hey gobbo. I said I had a bit over 200k after he shoved. I apologize if I misinformed you.

btw, the guy showed me the As, as I said. Do you guys think that AA is the most likely holding for him?

Ship, really? I actually bet less than I usually do in this spot (51k in the pot on the flop) so I'll have more FE if he raises and I jam. You bet even less than 1/2 pot?