Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Does anyone know how this will work out, because I dont get it when he says he is taking 10% of them both and if Barry wins at the Bike he will be out for 300k.

Brians blog

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

I read it as

Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that Sorel wins

Brian pays barry 20% of any prize that Barry wins

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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I read it as

Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that Sorel wins

Brian pays barry 20% of any prize that Barry wins

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except both players have to be registered in the event. otherwise its kind of a horrible prop bet for brian right?

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

just like fiji says

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

I imagine Brian has a ton fo equity in this bet

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

wow, i think barry has way the best of this assuming they are doing it for only those events all three enter.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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wow, i think barry has way the best of this assuming they are doing it for only those events all three enter.

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i think the opposite

I think 10% of Mizzi + 10% of ZJ's scores >>> 20% of BG's

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Who is this Imperium/Sorel guy?

Barry is definitely one of the best of the old live guys but Brian should be at least break-even on this.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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wow, i think barry has way the best of this assuming they are doing it for only those events all three enter.

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nah, I like Brian's side a lot better.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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Who is this Imperium/Sorel guy?



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Sorel

Turned 21 not long ago. He's good. Better at tournaments than Barry, I'd bet.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Who knows.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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Who is this Imperium/Sorel guy?



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Sorel

Turned 21 not long ago. He's good. Better at tournaments than Barry, I'd bet.

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surely this is event for event, buy-in for buy-in, or something similar.

i think it's a close bet, but i'd lean towards justin because iirc he's more established and has more experience in live tourneys, but sorel's hendon mob page is sick.

btw, shaniac, you've had an outstanding year this year. congratulations. put some of that money away for a rainy day [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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Who is this Imperium/Sorel guy?



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Sorel

Turned 21 not long ago. He's good. Better at tournaments than Barry, I'd bet.

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surely this is event for event, buy-in for buy-in, or something similar.

i think it's a close bet, but i'd lean towards justin because iirc he's more established and has more experience in live tourneys, but sorel's hendon mob page is sick.

btw, shaniac, you've had an outstanding year this year. congratulations. put some of that money away for a rainy day [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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i don't think you understand the bet. it is 10% of ZeeJ + 10% of Sorel vs 20% of barry.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Brian having split between two players as opposed to Barry's one alone should give him greater equity.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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Brian having split between two players as opposed to Barry's one alone should give him greater equity.

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I don't see how that increases Brian's edge, it just makes the variance of his (ZJ/Sorel) results lesser than Barry's results.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Assuming it's 10% + 10% for 20%, I actually tend to like Barry's action.

Like a lot of you I am big advocate of little known online players versus well-known overrated live players.

However tournament play is the one area where lots of live experience is probably more valuable than lots of technical experience.

Basically there is very little fundamental difference between tournaments and cash games, despite what so many people think.

But there is a big practical difference in that tourneys have a lot of terrible players, in there is therefore huge EV to be made in tourneys if you are good at playing against bad players.

People who are really good at playing against bad players are very observant and good at picking up on bet sizing tells and physical tells. This is the kind of thing that, IMO, years of live tourney play select for.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

And BTW, does this mean Barry was playing in the 1k/2k PLO/NL game? Or was he just playing a mix game at the adjacent table?

I had a feeling Barry would be like a lot of the 4k-8k players and sit out the huge big bet game, for a couple of reasons.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

I played briefly with Barry when it was 500/1000 and I think he was playing the next night when they bumped it up to 1k/2k.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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I played briefly with Barry when it was 500/1000 and I think he was playing the next night when they bumped it up to 1k/2k.

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wow BG is an old-school balla

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

in terms of whos better and who is not, i think this is a great bet. i am going to lean towards barry...

however, in terms of prop bet, it's kinda lame.

if fiji is right in his analysis, i think he is too, you are not talking too much money here... someone needs to cash huge in a tourney for any sig amount of money to change hands... you are only talking 10 and 20 percent of cashes...

this bet could go on for years and years and neither side could lose/win 50k...

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Considering this bet will only take place once is that not an edge?

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Seth,

Consider these two examples:

1) I flip a coin one hundred times. Every time it is heads I pay you $1, every time it is tails nothing happens.

2) I roll a 100 sided dice one time. If the dice lands on #7 I pay you $5,000. If the dice lands on any other number nothing happens.


The expected value in each situation is $50. The second situation has a higher variance (you will either win big or you will win small) where the first situation has less variance (your most likely payout will be close to your average payout) but there is no 'edge' in choosing one scenario over the other.

In this bet Brian has the coin flip and Barry has the dice but if the average of Sorel and Justin's skill is equal to that of Barry's skill then neither person would have an edge.

If you play poker it is very important that you understand this concept. It is also fairly important that you understand this concept just to get through life.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

Agreed, EV is equal givin equal skill levels, however Brian has a greater chance of walking with cash.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

A single big score by any party could really throw the numbers in this bet. I doubt Brian's edge is very significant, if he has an edge at all. Barry has had a lot of cashes the last few years including several wins, so don't count him out for a second.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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Agreed, EV is equal givin equal skill levels, however Brian has a greater chance of walking with cash.

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I'm sure reducing variance was probably not a large concern of Mr.Greenstein or Mr.Townsend.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

I think brian has the best of this in the sense that Sorel and ZJ have a bigger chance to score big (top3) then BG... just because of the playing styles

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

anyone interested in a similar prop bet? For much less of a percentage of the winnings, but instead of such a small amount of players we each take 10-20 players with alternates so that we have the same number of players in the tournament if some don't play. I'd want the online side. I'm willing to discuss details through PM, or maybe this will spark a thread. One problem I can see arising with this is deciding on who is an online/live pro. For instance, is shaniac a live pro or online pro?

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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I think brian has the best of this in the sense that Sorel and ZJ are both better tournament players than barry

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Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

In fairness though, how many more live tournaments has Barry made the top 3 in vs. Imperium and ZJ? I think that was kinda the point of Barry's argument. Sorel is pretty new to the live scene, but does Justin have more than 3 or 4 top 3 finishes in live tournies?

Not saying Barry is hands down a better player, but I think people are overestimating the difference in skill levels, real or perceived.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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In fairness though, how many more live tournaments has Barry made the top 3 in vs. Imperium and ZJ? I think that was kinda the point of Barry's argument. Sorel is pretty new to the live scene, but does Justin have more than 3 or 4 top 3 finishes in live tournies?

Not saying Barry is hands down a better player, but I think people are overestimating the difference in skill levels, real or perceived.

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Glad to see that you have alerted us to the fact we are blatantly overlooking:

Barry has more top 3 finishes than either of them!

Clearly, we should ignore this fact.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

EDIT: I was beaten to this... sort of... making contact...

Is anyone prepared to take 10 online picks vs my 10 live picks for 5% of each in say... WPT tournaments. We need a way to get a starting list, then we can seed our players and match up however many are in for both teams.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: I was beaten to this... sort of... making contact...

Is anyone prepared to take 10 online picks vs my 10 live picks for 5% of each in say... WPT tournaments. We need a way to get a starting list, then we can seed our players and match up however many are in for both teams.

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someone take this

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

This is going to be fun....

I think there's an excellent chance that Brian's bet is +EV. But that's mainly because I don't like Barry's 1st choice.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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This is going to be fun....

I think there's an excellent chance that Brian's bet is +EV. But that's mainly because I don't like Barry's 1st choice.

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I bet Barry has a lot of confidence in his horse.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: I was beaten to this... sort of... making contact...

Is anyone prepared to take 10 online picks vs my 10 live picks for 5% of each in say... WPT tournaments. We need a way to get a starting list, then we can seed our players and match up however many are in for both teams.

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someone take this

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well i kind of already proposed this which is maybe what Mark is talking about when he says he was beaten to it, but I am considering how much I could potentially lose in this bet and whether or not I am comfortable with the 5% figure. I'd definitely need a cap. I have a feeling Mark won't have a ton of trouble getting action on his bet whether or not I take it though, it seems like a pretty fun bet.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

I agree on the cap idea. I do not know who you are and obviously we will need to work something out so that I do / am comfortable making the bet with you. I was thinking 20k per event cap seems reasonable and no one can get too burnt.

And we could say it runs for 20 events minimum, buying out is 5k and swapping a player is $500.

Obviously this is a rough skeleton and I thought of it in the last 30 seconds so update as you see fit.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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I read it as

Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that ZeeJustin wins
Barry pays brian 10% of any prize that Sorel wins

Brian pays barry 20% of any prize that Barry wins

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FYP

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

i really shouldn't be running my mouth so much here, it is unlikely that i will take this bet for an amount high enough to get you very interested, just so you know. I'm not sure of my edge at all and i would be doing this almost entirely for entertainment. I will probably not be willing to lose more than a number somewhere around 15-20k for the entire bet.

As for being comfortable with making a bet with me, I'm not sure how to make that work either. I don't really have anyone credible to vouch for me, the only thing I could offer is proof that i have enough money to pay off the bet.

I do like the terms you posted though

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

I would be making the bet for fun too, but I think I would have small edge.

Re: Brian & Barry\'s prop bet
 

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In fairness though, how many more live tournaments has Barry made the top 3 in vs. Imperium and ZJ? I think that was kinda the point of Barry's argument. Sorel is pretty new to the live scene, but does Justin have more than 3 or 4 top 3 finishes in live tournies?

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Wow, a poker player in his fifties has more live tournament top-3 finishes than two twenty-one year olds? Get out.