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-   -   50nl combo draw (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=453031)

Jzo19 07-17-2007 01:59 AM

50nl combo draw
 
villain is 35/12/2

whats my play on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $63.45
Hero (BB): $59.10
UTG: $50.30
MP: $50.75
CO: $36.60
BTN: $36.90

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.50</font>, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $3.50</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, CO calls $6.50

Turn: ($24.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ????

PietM 07-17-2007 02:32 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
With a draw this good I'd try to get it in as soon as possible. Bet out on the flop, and 3bet CO, if he raises. As played, I'd just make a potsize raise (to ~$14).

On this turn, I'm not sure what I would do. You still have a very strong hand with lots of outs. A diamond, A, J, 9 could/would give you a winner, of you're not ahead right now.
Maybe a check here, and push if CO bets?

Lego05 07-17-2007 02:36 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
Lead flop and 3bet if raised...this is a monster draw IMO, significantly bigger than even a normal big draw. I also am not sure what to do on the turn.

Check call?

Nick C 07-17-2007 02:43 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
I like PietM's bet/3-bet idea on the flop, although I'll admit that if we get raised, our equity is probably not quite as good as it appears on first glance.

After the actual flop action, I don't see a turn plan I'm thrilled with. I would probably begin with a check, though. And then I'd probably just call if Villain bet.

If we had taken a bet/3-bet approach on the flop, by the way, the turn would still be kind of awkward, but I would most likely lead the turn if it were HU and Villain had just called the flop.

Lego05 07-17-2007 02:54 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
[ QUOTE ]
I like PietM's bet/3-bet idea on the flop, although I'll admit that if we get raised, our equity is probably not quite as good as it appears on first glance.

After the actual flop action, I don't see a turn plan I'm thrilled with. I would probably begin with a check, though. And then I'd probably just call if Villain bet.

If we had taken a bet/3-bet approach on the flop, by the way, the turn would still be kind of awkward, but I would most likely lead the turn if it were HU and Villain had just called the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, Nick C, you've been around 2+2 for a long time. I'd be interested in hearing your poker life story. Post or PM if you don't mind.

lacrymosa 07-17-2007 03:30 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
I would probably check raise the turn.

dhdell 07-17-2007 03:38 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
turn c/r AI

Nick C 07-17-2007 03:38 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like PietM's bet/3-bet idea on the flop, although I'll admit that if we get raised, our equity is probably not quite as good as it appears on first glance.

After the actual flop action, I don't see a turn plan I'm thrilled with. I would probably begin with a check, though. And then I'd probably just call if Villain bet.

If we had taken a bet/3-bet approach on the flop, by the way, the turn would still be kind of awkward, but I would most likely lead the turn if it were HU and Villain had just called the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, Nick C, you've been around 2+2 for a long time. I'd be interested in hearing your poker life story. Post or PM if you don't mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a casual player, and I don't put in nearly the number of hands that many of you do per week. I had, however, worked my way up to 5/10 limit pre-ban. So my background is mostly in limit, and I still have a better feel for limit strategy than NL strategy.

Post-ban, I've been playing NL almost exclusively. I'm also a little frustrated, I have to admit. The online games are not as good as they used to be -- I've played enough limit post-ban to know this -- and while the deterioration of the games was the trend anyway, I do think the ban accelerated the process greatly.

I had to spend a chunk of my bankroll this year, and meanwhile I haven't been running super-hot or anything (actually, I think I've been running somewhat cold), so I feel kind of stuck in the micros for the time being. I don't really mind that much, but it is true that at this time last year I was playing much bigger. I mean, I don't miss the -$1,000 nights (and there were a couple of those) at 5/10 limit, but then you also give up the big wins.

One philosophical thing I'm still sort of struggling with is that, while I don't really know exactly what the optimal NL25/NL50 strategy is, I do suspect that "optimal" strategy is also heavily exploitable. I'm not as much of a bully at the table as some of you are, but it still feels weird to me sometimes, for example, when I'm raising it up preflop and I know that (assuming the SB folds) the BB has an automatically profitable pot-sized 3-bet -- for this one hand anyway -- with any two cards. (And he doesn't just have that versus the cards I'm holding. He has that against my range.)

That's just one example, but, more generally, I think I don't make as many postflop folds as I really should because -- theoretically anyway -- I think my opponents should be playing back at me more than they actually do in practice.

Waingro 07-17-2007 03:55 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
Since villain is short and only has a psb left, I push. A cr ai makes no sense. Villain might check behind a hand like Adxd and that would be really bad for us. Villain might even fold a hand like AJ or AQ if we push and that would be really cool.

55offsuit 07-17-2007 04:09 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
Have we payed any attention to that the pot is 24.75 and villain has like 25.1$ left? I think a c/r here is the worst option. Any bet here also pot commits us if he pushes so playing the hand the way we did, we just "have to" get all our chips in. I just push to increase my FE which I think is substantial with our line and a turn push.

According to the range I have put villain on, a check is worth around 9.80$ of the pot whereas a push is worth like 12.01$ with the FE I think we have.

UncleGogi 07-17-2007 04:14 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
Lead on flop and push if he reraises you.
Your hand is good on flop, but not on turn.

infinite_loop 07-17-2007 06:50 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
This is a really good hand to Stove.

We're 58% against this range on the flop: JJ-99,AJs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

We're 42% the same range on the turn.

I wonder if checking isn't bad here given how thin it probably is. The flop check-raise might encourage a check behind, but I'm not sure how feasible that is.

My initial reaction is to just play it fast, but I'm not sure how much FE we have here and it looks like we don't have a big edge here very often. I would probably lean toward checking the turn, and raising all-in if he bets.

How often does potting the turn take it down? I think that's your key in this decision.

Edit: I missed how short he is. But I'm not sure it changes much. We aren't check-raising to get him to fold, we're check-raising because we aren't folding the turn but we might want to reduce our variance here considering the fact that we don't have a great edge here. If you have FE, potting is a better choice. But I think you have even less FE given how short he is. But really how much FE you have in these spots is the most valuable piece of info.

LastLife 07-17-2007 07:08 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is a really good hand to Stove.

We're 58% against this range on the flop: JJ-99,AJs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

We're 42% the same range on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically no matter what you can fold this hand, even if he pushes allin you are getting the odds to call. What I like here is just shoving, because even though you have alot of outs you are still behind AK, AQ type hands, and with a shove it is possible to get these hands to fold.

shadypac 07-17-2007 07:09 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
What makes the decision easier is to decide whether or not your capable of folding this hand. Im not going to in this spot probably ever, with half villains chips in the pot. That being said turn is an easy push. Push = Fold Equity
checking doesnt do anything except take away that FE because i think its safe to assume villain is probably pushing if you check or might at well be because i doubt hes ever going to check behind. He wont check behind because if your cards hits, which are usually going to be scare cards for him, whats he gonna do fold the river, what was the point of him calling your raise in the first place unless hes on a better flush draw. Push is the only answer for me.

dhdell 07-17-2007 07:40 AM

Re: 50nl combo draw
 
btw weak c/r on flop


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