Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

Thoughts on all streets please. Read was that villain seemed pretty solid and doing nothing unusual, possibly good enough to be trying to abuse the bubble. His preflop check was quick. His flop call was quick. His river shove was an instashove.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t7500/t15000
(Ante: t750)
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) uclabruinz is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, uclabruinz calls t7500 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t27000)</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t34500, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">uclabruinz bets t20000</font>, BB calls t20000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t54500)</font>.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t74500, 2 players)
uclabruinz checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets t30000</font>, uclabruinz calls t30000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t104500)</font>.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t134500, 2 players)
uclabruinz checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in t456730</font>, <font color="#cc0000">uclabruinz calls all-in t149954</font>.
Uncalled bets: t306776 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: t434408

EDIT: I had 215k to start the hand, villain had 522k. I was probably 6th of 10 left to start the hand.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

seems like a poor spot to pick off a bluff.

(I would fold)

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I fold the river.. he might be bluffing a small amount but it would be a fairly complex bluff (either from floating flop or turning a small pair into a bluff). I don't think you're ahead enough.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I like open shoving river as a bluff then c/c

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

tough decison. fwiw i would just shove preflop.

I think it's an okay call. It's hard to put him on an ace given preflop, and i doubt he value bets a worse king like this. he could have a flush but he could obv just be bluffing it.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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I like open shoving river as a bluff then c/c

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He almost never has a better hand that is folding.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I think open shoving river is really bad. I don't think an ace is folding in a bvb situation and we deprive the villain the chance to bluff

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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tough decison. fwiw i would just shove preflop.

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Is that unexploitably +EV? We don't have big antes, and any kind of thinking villain is going to know my range is wide and does not include top hands, since my stack is perfect for a raise to induce a shove with a big hand. He has a big enough stack to call comfortably. Unless this is mathematically unexploitable, I think shoving is bad.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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I think open shoving river is really bad. I don't think an ace is folding in a bvb situation

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Villain never has an A. But yeah, shoving river is awful.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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tough decison. fwiw i would just shove preflop.

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Is that unexploitably +EV? We don't have big antes, and any kind of thinking villain is going to know my range is wide and does not include top hands, since my stack is perfect for a raise to induce a shove with a big hand. He has a big enough stack to call comfortably. Unless this is mathematically unexploitable, I think shoving is bad.

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I'm pretty sure it is. I did a quick calc giving villain a calling range of 22+,A2+,K9s+,KTo+ and it was ~+10k cEV

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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Villain never has an A.

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I don't think A3/A4/A6/A8 are out of the question given his pf check or subsequent actions.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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I like open shoving river as a bluff then c/c

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He almost never has a better hand that is folding.

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I dunno people are checking A3o and such in these spots with these stacks and rightfully so.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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I like open shoving river as a bluff then c/c

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He almost never has a better hand that is folding.

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I dunno people are checking A3o and such in these spots with these stacks and rightfully so.

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I agree that certain people would check Ax here, but I wouldn't say rightfully so.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

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Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

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could be 34 or K5 etc there are 2pair hands that he can and will be valuebetting I don't think bot 2 makes the same river bet but the other 2pairs do too.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To further explain myself,

In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

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Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

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2 pair (like any 2 pair).

Anyway, you call here w/ QJ high? He isn't shoving any hands in between QJ high and kings is he?

Also, what "air" can he have really here?

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

also ucla if you are soo sure Ax is not in his range why aren't you shoving the turn?

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I'm pretty sure you can shove this unexploitably PF (curtains can verify this?) but I believe you can shove any King at 10BB without antes, and with the antes here you're about there

Also shoving river is really bad IMO

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

All,

Villains in this situation very, very rarely instacheck preflop with an ace and very, very rarely instacall the flop and bet small on the turn with that ace, or with any hand like two pair or whatever.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
In order to call this, you need to have a fairly complicated/advanced read on this guy. The main reason being, there are TONS of hands he can have that are valuebetting, honestly like every combination of hands that beat you. At the same time, there aren't very many hands he can have that are bluffing. Most ppl don't float and go crazy at 14bbs effective stacks.

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yeah I 100% agree with this.

also, ifffff I decide to just complete here, I'm c/f'ing the flop because he knows I don't have an ace (it's true) and then we get into all these mindgames with me being OOP with 14 BB on the FT bubble. so it inevitably gets to this river decision, and that's annoying and pointless, so I fold. but I probably take some other PF/flop line combo.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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All,

Villains in this situation very, very rarely instacheck preflop with an ace and very, very rarely instacall the flop and bet small on the turn with that ace, or with any hand like two pair or whatever.

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I disagree.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I put him on a flush here hoping to look like a bluff and trying to get paid. People just aren't that tricky late in MTTs to try to bluff people. That is for most players. Now, if you had a read on the guy, that's another story.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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Tons of hands that are value betting? Like what? What hands quickly call the flop, bet small on the turn, and then instashove the river? IMO, this is always either a flush or air.

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How would villain play 75 or 72? Esp. if he doesn't think you only complete Ax or Kx pre?

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

preflop shove is unexploitable; i think the river is a fold. seems like every time i call a big allin in a spot where think the guy played the hand too weird to really have a hand, he does. maybe diamonds, maybe two pair, maybe an ace, it doesn't really matter which not-a-bluff he has, b/c he has some not-a-bluff too often. and, checking behind pre then calling the flop isnt really that weird for a bad ace... A7 fits.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

i really don't like the flop lead

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

of course preflop steal is unexploitable as someone asked earlier.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I love how we get into preflop battles here so is preflop a standard fold here? To me I thought it was and was interested that most of the responses didn't really question it.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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I love how we get into preflop battles here so is preflop a standard fold here? To me I thought it was and was interested that most of the responses didn't really question it.

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Folding sucks. You could turn your cards face up and pushing would be +ev. The fact that your cards actually aren't turned over makes it even more +ev.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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I love how we get into preflop battles here so is preflop a standard fold here? To me I thought it was and was interested that most of the responses didn't really question it.

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Folding sucks. You could turn your cards face up and pushing would be +ev. The fact that your cards actually aren't turned over makes it even more +ev.

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QFT.... seriously folding pre-flop is god-awful here, and I'm a huge proponent of just shoving pre as it a.) eliminates any possible mistake you can make like calling this river bet and b.) is completely unexploitable and can make your opponent make a bad mistake

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]



Blinds: t7500/t15000
(Ante: t750)
6 players


Pre-flop: (6 players) uclabruinz is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, uclabruinz calls t7500 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t27000)</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t34500, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">uclabruinz bets t20000</font>, BB calls t20000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t54500)</font>.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t74500, 2 players)
uclabruinz checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets t30000</font>, uclabruinz calls t30000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t104500)</font>.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t134500, 2 players)
uclabruinz checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in t456730</font>, <font color="#cc0000">uclabruinz calls all-in t149954</font>.
Uncalled bets: t306776 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: t434408


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My first thought about villain's river push is villain has polarize hands - either air or flush. But after looking at the turn's pot size (105K) and ucla's remaining stack (149K), I think villain was valuebetting the river. Because of ucla's stack size, pot size and the river card, assume villain value bet 80K at the river, most hands in ucla's range would fold. But shove the river looks like a bluff and is likely to get called by worse hands.

I would play the flop the same way, if I check/call the turn, I fold to a push if a diamond hits the river.

If I decide to call any river push, I may crai the turn.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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completely unexploitable

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that doesn't matter at all, because it's terrible. I'm a big fan of the raptor theorem ("unexploitable play sucks ass") and this is a good example of it right here. you're on the FT bubble and you want to shove 14 BB to win ~2 with a hand that's like 35% against villain's likely calling range? please do it with my 10-20 BB stack at the table, because I'll cheer you on the whole way. it's unexploitable and +cEV all the way to the Sklansky bank for everyone else collecting your dollars.

if you want to wind up all in PF for some reason, the way to do it is to limp/RR.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

I'm a moron so you could please explain?

Is it because $EV!=cEV at this stage in the tournament?

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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completely unexploitable

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that doesn't matter at all, because it's terrible. I'm a big fan of the raptor theorem ("unexploitable play sucks ass") and this is a good example of it right here. you're on the FT bubble and you want to shove 14 BB to win ~2 with a hand that's like 35% against villain's likely calling range? please do it with my 10-20 BB stack at the table, because I'll cheer you on the whole way. it's unexploitable and +cEV all the way to the Sklansky bank for everyone else collecting your dollars.

if you want to wind up all in PF for some reason, the way to do it is to limp/RR.

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Point taken, and maybe it's not the most +EV way to play the hand, but it's not "terrible" - Folding PF is terrible

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

Paul,

Were you betting 100% of flops, or did you like this one particularly?

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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completely unexploitable

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that doesn't matter at all, because it's terrible. I'm a big fan of the raptor theorem ("unexploitable play sucks ass") and this is a good example of it right here. you're on the FT bubble and you want to shove 14 BB to win ~2 with a hand that's like 35% against villain's likely calling range? please do it with my 10-20 BB stack at the table, because I'll cheer you on the whole way. it's unexploitable and +cEV all the way to the Sklansky bank for everyone else collecting your dollars.

if you want to wind up all in PF for some reason, the way to do it is to limp/RR.

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Wow. Shoving is terrible? Please explain to me how it is terrible. You'd rather play it oop vs a big stack? Yea, limpreraising is an option, but ucla hasn't given us any indication that BB would raise us light if we limped. Since we'd basically have no FE if BB raised to 45-60k, he'd have to be raising somewhat light for a lrr to be profitable. If UCLA had a read that BB will raise our limp with ATC, then sure go for the lrr. But I don't see that read in the OP.

I think people grossly overestimate the difference between cEV and $EV late in MTTs, especially online MTTs. The difference between 10th and 9th is miniscule, irrelevant. Passing up on marginal but definite edges due to the bubble is just stupid. Plus shoving preflop isn't even that marginal. It's worth ~2/3 of a BB and at the same time negates our positional disadvantage.

And it's not like our monster 14bb stack affords us to just chill out before the final table. There's antes and a blind increase can't be more than 15 minutes away. We aren't guaranteed to "find a better spot" before we have blinded away a bit and the blinds have gone up, significantly reducing our FE.

btw with a few more bbs i'd rather limp

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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[ QUOTE ]
completely unexploitable

[/ QUOTE ]

that doesn't matter at all, because it's terrible. I'm a big fan of the raptor theorem ("unexploitable play sucks ass") and this is a good example of it right here. you're on the FT bubble and you want to shove 14 BB to win ~2 with a hand that's like 35% against villain's likely calling range? please do it with my 10-20 BB stack at the table, because I'll cheer you on the whole way. it's unexploitable and +cEV all the way to the Sklansky bank for everyone else collecting your dollars.

if you want to wind up all in PF for some reason, the way to do it is to limp/RR.

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I agree with you, except this is a terrible example of the raptor theorem. actually I'd never heard of it before, but I'm guessing he wasnt talking about +cEV plays being -$EV because of payout structures. If he was, he should probably reword his theorem.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
Paul,

Were you betting 100% of flops, or did you like this one particularly?

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At the time, I liked this one. While it may look a bit suspicious that I'm representing an ace when I completed preflop, villain really has a hard time continuing the 67% of the time he misses this flop (or if he has a flush draw). That was my thinking at the time, but now I tend to agree with Adanthar that it probably was better to just check/fold. I would have had 13 BBs left, enough to look to resteal at some point in the next orbit or two.

Adanthar,

You said you would have taken some other preflop/flop combination, but hate open shoving. Could you describe in more detail what exactly you would do in this situation?

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

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tough decison. fwiw i would just shove preflop.

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Is that unexploitably +EV? We don't have big antes, and any kind of thinking villain is going to know my range is wide and does not include top hands, since my stack is perfect for a raise to induce a shove with a big hand. He has a big enough stack to call comfortably. Unless this is mathematically unexploitable, I think shoving is bad.

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Yea I jam pf un1ess I have good reason not to.

Fwiw you can shove k8o faceup with 30bb no antes. Here its an abso1ute no brainer.

Adanthar if it were c1oser I wou1d agree with you but I fee1 1ike its so massive1y +ev here that chip ev/ $ev concerns arent rea11y re1evant.

Re: Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle
 

[ QUOTE ]
You said you would have taken some other preflop/flop combination, but hate open shoving. Could you describe in more detail what exactly you would do in this situation?

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vs this opponent, limp/RR (and then c/f here), raise/call or raise/fold [if he shoves a big range obviously this isn't an option] are probably all better than this.