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-   -   5/10 66 in EP (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=45102)

mpitts 02-24-2006 02:09 AM

5/10 66 in EP
 
I feel like I misplayed this hand horribly. Advice or critiques on all streets are appreciated.

Villian is LAP according to PokerTracker - 21 / 19 / 1.85AF after 90 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 17.20 BB

toss 02-24-2006 02:43 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Don't checkraise the river. If you want to get more bets in 3-bet the turn.

I think its wrong to put anymore raises in after villain raises the turn. Its unlikely he'll call a scary check/3-bet with AKo then raise when he hit a K on the turn. At least thats what I think.

Niediam 02-24-2006 03:48 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
I fold preflop - but if you think you can get value out of the hand then its fine with me.

I like the flop but I'd three bet the turn.

Niediam 02-24-2006 03:50 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
Don't checkraise the river. If you want to get more bets in 3-bet the turn.

I think its wrong to put anymore raises in after villain raises the turn. Its unlikely he'll call a scary check/3-bet with AKo then raise when he hit a K on the turn. At least thats what I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that your average 18% PFRer is good enough at poker to care much about scary checkraises. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

gilbert 02-24-2006 04:06 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
fold preflop. seriously.

[censored] 22-88.

toss 02-24-2006 04:09 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't checkraise the river. If you want to get more bets in 3-bet the turn.

I think its wrong to put anymore raises in after villain raises the turn. Its unlikely he'll call a scary check/3-bet with AKo then raise when he hit a K on the turn. At least thats what I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that your average 18% PFRer is good enough at poker to care much about scary checkraises. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well its only over 90 hands. He could've just had a lot of raisable hands.

02-24-2006 09:17 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't checkraise the river. If you want to get more bets in 3-bet the turn.

I think its wrong to put anymore raises in after villain raises the turn. Its unlikely he'll call a scary check/3-bet with AKo then raise when he hit a K on the turn. At least thats what I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that your average 18% PFRer is good enough at poker to care much about scary checkraises. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

90 hands is nothing so don't base the decisions to much on the stats.

Flop is good, a bet would be OK too though.

I think it's close but i would vote for a turn 3-bet. We are afraid of KK and 88. Say he's playing 88 like this 33% of the time. We are then behind 3+1=4 combos. To 3-bet we have to expect to be ahead of 8 combos, making a 2:1 ratio.

I think villain has AA sometimes, AK is unlikely, but maybe some percentage of the time. QQ, JJ? + Some other random combos and i think we can make it 8, since we have to take into account that he *may* be the kind of player his stats suggest, namely over agressive.

But really, the EV difference cannot be too big between the two in this spot.

And if you just call the turn, you should also just call the river. To checkraise here is inconsistent.

mahogany17 02-24-2006 09:38 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
I'm capping the turn. I think we are ahead of the villain most of the time. There are plenty of 5/10ers that will call this flop action with AK. They just can't let it go. Any pair AA-88 is also possible. Your river check/raise tells me that you thought you were ahead also. You therefore gain nothing by c/r'ing the river when you could have capped the turn. The way you played it you could have missed 2 extra bets if he checked behind you on the river, Cheers, Mahogany17

henkeee 02-24-2006 10:07 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
Don't checkraise the river. If you want to get more bets in 3-bet the turn.

I think its wrong to put anymore raises in after villain raises the turn. Its unlikely he'll call a scary check/3-bet with AKo then raise when he hit a K on the turn. At least thats what I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a somewhat similar hand yesterday when I lost to a higher set. I took the line b/c turn, b/c river. That way we're risking one BB less (compared to 3-betting turn and not folding to a cap) and we're sure to get a bet in on the river. What do you think about that?

Some people are so overly aggressive that it's tough without a read. At my limits this could very well be AK even if it's not that likely in this case.

SnglMaltScotch 02-24-2006 10:10 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Fold Pre-Flop, the whole hand plays very differently after that.

Bill C 02-24-2006 11:26 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Interesting hand, mpitts.
Limping with 66 is OK and I like your line of CR flop, lead turn. The real question is, what does MP-2 hold?

While you describe him as LAP, a VPIP of 21 is neutral at least. Plenty of 2+2ers who regard themselves as TAGs have VPIP in that area. I would describe him as Neutral, very aggressive Pre-Flop, moderately aggressive thereafter. It would be very good to know what his stats are like later in the hands, in the breakdown of Flop, Turn, River, and especially his showdown stats to see if he overplays his hands that he's so aggressive with early.

KK and 88 are the hands we are worried about. I find it hard to believe that a guy this aggressive early would just call your CR on the Flop if he had KK. Same thing if he had 88 in his hand. He probably isn't thinking very far ahead, such as a Stop'N'Go would require. One of the real advantages of limping with small pairs and hitting a set on the Flop is they are usually unsuspected by villains, so he probably puts you on a medium pair or maybe overcards. He may hold something like JJ or TT, considering his VPIP.

So when the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes on the turn, I don't think it makes him a set of KKK. It may make him 2 pair.

I'd 3-bet the turn. And I wouldn't CR the river, but I'd consider a value bet, especially if this guy's showdown stats indicate that he overplays his hands. Maybe he shows you 88, but I doubt it.

And Pitts, FWIW, I don't think you misplayed the hand "horribly." Most of us wouldn't have CRed the river, but that's a minor point.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill c

mpitts 02-24-2006 03:06 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Thanks to everyone for the comments and advice. It was a weird hand in that I felt like I was way ahead after the flop, but the K on the turn scared me. Then reality set back in and I felt that I had the best hand on the river. I definitely should have led the river instead of the C/R.

And for the record, he had JJ and MHIG.

BostonMetro 02-24-2006 03:17 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Fold preflop if the table is aggressive and either bad or good.

I think I like check/raising the flop if you get there.

It's probably safe the three-bet the turn simply because the guy didn't cap the flop when it came back around to him. He might as well with the KK but won't do that with aces or AK. But you did set up a nice check-raise on the river.

I like all of this after the flop. I like that you were aggressive enough to check-raise the river, not fearing the kings.

Sandberg 02-24-2006 03:48 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
I'd have three bet the turn but I don't see how you could have gotten another bet out of him. Even if the villain overplays his hand(AK) for a cap on the turn, you are forced to consider the possibility that he has specifically KK and will have to slow up anyway.

No way you get him to fold. I think you played it a little tricky but I'm sure you didn't lose any bets this way.

BTW, I can't speak for others but when I'm UTG, I either pump it or dump it (mattering on the makeup of the table) unless the table is REALLY Loose and Passive. I think you should have folded this preflop (or raised, whichever).

Fat Nicky 02-24-2006 04:02 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think its wrong to put anymore raises in after villain raises the turn. Its unlikely he'll call a scary check/3-bet with AKo then raise when he hit a K on the turn. At least thats what I think.


[/ QUOTE ]

Villain was getting about 8:1 to call 2 bets on the flop. It's not out of the question that he called w/AK here. AA is another possibility. I think we need to 3-bet the turn here.

W. Deranged 02-24-2006 04:10 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Taking the line you did is asking to have the river checked through and makes no more bets than simply three-betting the turn and betting the river.

In other words, you are adding a lot of risk for no more expectation.

So three-bet the damn turn.

W. Deranged 02-24-2006 04:12 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
I would also consider betting the flop instead of check-raising. It worked out fine here, but, betting increases your chance of getting more than 2 bets in on the flop. If your opponent has an overpair he's raising the flop like 100% of the time and then you can three-jar him, and hopefully trap the other dudes for some bets too.

James. 02-24-2006 04:37 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
i'm betting that turn so i CAN 3 bet.

yellowbastard 02-24-2006 11:38 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
I dont totally hate limping pre-flop here in some situtations. What kind of game is it? If it's very loose and somewhat aggressive Skylanski actually suggests limping up front with small pairs due to all the good check-raising situations that come up post flop (to protect your hand build the pot ect...) (Hold'em Poker for Ad. Pl. p.24-25) I have recently been winning some monster pots at Party &amp; Pacific 2-4 trying out this strategy, but you MUST be reasonably certain of a multiway pot before going for it.

chrishungerford 02-24-2006 11:45 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
Interesting hand. The flop 3 bet is good. Turn is good, but just call the 4 straight river.

yellowbastard 02-25-2006 07:15 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
I would also consider betting the flop instead of check-raising. It worked out fine here, but, betting increases your chance of getting more than 2 bets in on the flop. If your opponent has an overpair he's raising the flop like 100% of the time and then you can three-jar him, and hopefully trap the other dudes for some bets too.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we lead the flop dont we run the risk of not getting a checkraise in to protect our hand against stuff like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (possible gut-shots and BD flushes) that one of the MP players would be incorrect to call two cold bets cold with?

sharpie 02-25-2006 08:10 AM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would also consider betting the flop instead of check-raising. It worked out fine here, but, betting increases your chance of getting more than 2 bets in on the flop. If your opponent has an overpair he's raising the flop like 100% of the time and then you can three-jar him, and hopefully trap the other dudes for some bets too.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we lead the flop dont we run the risk of not getting a checkraise in to protect our hand against stuff like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (possible gut-shots and BD flushes) that one of the MP players would be incorrect to call two cold bets cold with?

[/ QUOTE ]

The UTG player has 7x or 5x of clubs too little to worry about. Alot of the time he'll have overs and we'll be glad we didn't knock him out. And alot of the time we'll get raised anyway.

bobhalford 02-25-2006 04:03 PM

Re: 5/10 66 in EP
 
I like a 3-bet here on the turn. You should only call when you have completely convinced yourself that villain has KK and only KK. Otherwise, raise it up.


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