Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

Limper is huge donk. 75/25 type

Villain is 28/22 6-handed with SD stats of 40/52. Thats datamined over 1600 hands. No real reads but seems solid.


Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero pukes and does what? </font>

b/f, b/c, c/f?

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

I would check call because that is definitely the worse card in the deck for you. I don't think bet/folding is bad, but I believe you get called by less hands you beat because of what a bad card the river is, making the line less valuable.

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

sicko spot

what do you put villain's range at? I'm thinking like [A2-A5,55-66,88-JJ,TcJc,TcKc,KcJc] am I missing something?

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

[ QUOTE ]
sicko spot

what do you put villain's range at? I'm thinking like [A2-A5,55-66,88-JJ,TcJc,TcKc,KcJc] am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Add Qx hands and more Ax. I think he calls me down with Ax as long as no flush card comes

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

id bet fold, theres nothing he needs to bluff raise here hes either got Qx Ax a flush or a PP with showdown value vs ur range. Theres really no metagame considerations since he doesnt know u, and someone who raises 55-JJ Qx on this river will likely not have solid seeming stats.

u could ck fold i guess if hes not bluffign enough when u ck to call and u think he can fold underpairs on this river but I think betting has enough value vs players who are SD bound with 55-JJ here (ur protected pot cr here knocking out a player gets less respect IMO then when it goes bet fold u raise or bet call u raise for sure, and he probably shows down quite a bit based on his stats altho not converged probably) and folding to a bet if u ck getting 8:1 will kinda sting since he could vb QJ QT or Q9 here perhaps, if hed iso raise the bad limper with the latter two. And since I dont want to fold if i ck (its close) id rather bet defensively and get value from worse PPs that will ck behind but mite call a bet some % of the time, I really think 88-JJ here still call a river bet just hoping u have a worse PP.

I think ck calling is the worst line followed closely maybe interchangably with bet call

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

oh yah forgot Qx. add 9Qs TQ JQ then. he'd give more action with KQ AQ right? he'll look you up with PPs&lt;Q right?

I think we can b/f river. I don't think the bet is for value, but I think it is less -ev than b/c c/c or c/f.

he probably won't raise a bare ace here and if we c/c he's going to check behind most if not all of the hands we beat unless he is turning his hand into a bluff. that's a concern because the river is the perfect bluff card and the pot is big so I wouldn't feel that comfortable c/f.

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

I agree with most of the stuff jstill said. I'd bet if I'm pretty sure most PPs are still in his range (i.e. he's not one of these agro guys that insists on 3-betting the flop with a wide range). I'm not sure you squeeze any value out of this bet except for from worse Qx, but c/f means you lose a 8 bb pot witht the best hand occasionally and that obv sucks. I wouldn't even consider c/c or b/c unless this guy is a all-out maniac.

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

I was thinking about this on the way home and if he raises we could 3bet as a bluff

there are very few flushes in his range and he has to fear us having 35s or a flush. if he is the kind of player that will raise this super scare card river as a bluff or try for a thin value raise with Ax, we could steal the pot

not that I'd ever have the balls to run this play, but what do you think?

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

I bet/fold. I don't like check/calling without a solid read saying he'll bet worse hands here, and I have a hard time seeing a solid guy raising this river with worse hands.

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

EDIT

just saw there was a flush

b/f

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

Checkfold is better than checkcall.

If you check Villain will read KQ as your best possible hand and value bet the flush and any ace. That's a large supply of betting hands that beat you.

Villain's losing hand range consists of 55-66, 77-JJ, QT-QJ. All of these hands are showable and beat the bottom two cards on the flop which makes them very poor bluffing candidates. It's possible he might value bet QJ/QT but most players that would try that would have raised the turn instead. Overall his supply of worse hands is quite limited and he is unlikely to make the bet even when he can. Bets from worse hands will be pretty rare.

Comparing the last two paragraphs the ratio of betting better hands to betting worse hands will be very high and 8-1 pot odds are not nearly good enough. Of course folding is a very exploitable play but it should be OK for one-off use. If you played this player constantly the answer might be different.

I'm less sure about bet-folding. Maybe the crucial question is whether he will call with small pocket pairs. It's hard to see why he should but many players hate to make this fold.

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

[ QUOTE ]
Checkfold is better than checkcall.

If you check Villain will read KQ as your best possible hand and value bet the flush and any ace. That's a large supply of betting hands that beat you.

Villain's losing hand range consists of 55-66, 77-JJ, QT-QJ. All of these hands are showable and beat the bottom two cards on the flop which makes them very poor bluffing candidates. It's possible he might value bet QJ/QT but most players that would try that would have raised the turn instead. Overall his supply of worse hands is quite limited and he is unlikely to make the bet even when he can. Bets from worse hands will be pretty rare.

Comparing the last two paragraphs the ratio of betting better hands to betting worse hands will be very high and 8-1 pot odds are not nearly good enough. Of course folding is a very exploitable play but it should be OK for one-off use. If you played this player constantly the answer might be different.

I'm less sure about bet-folding. Maybe the crucial question is whether he will call with small pocket pairs. It's hard to see why he should but many players hate to make this fold.

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I agree c/c blows for the reasons your perfectly explained... But youve certaintly downplayed how often people call the river bet with any pair here.
He's not really playing it like he has an ace, cause there aren't many aces that can call this turn compared to pairs.
Most people would get more agressive with the flush draw too.

very very easy b/f

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

Awful spot. Villain doesn't seem like the type that would bluffraise river right? Then b/f hoping him to call with a PP seems like a good line. I don't hate c/c but I don't think this is the player we should do that against. There are some players that always is tempted to bluffbet a scary river, but I don't know how common that is at 10/20.

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking about this on the way home and if he raises we could 3bet as a bluff

there are very few flushes in his range and he has to fear us having 35s or a flush. if he is the kind of player that will raise this super scare card river as a bluff or try for a thin value raise with Ax, we could steal the pot

not that I'd ever have the balls to run this play, but what do you think?

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In theory I like this play, but I'm always hesitant to make plays in LHE that require Villain to fold a good hand in an inflated pot. It might be a good one though, and certainly will screw with his head if (when? lol) it gets shown down.

Oink, what country are you from (since you can play at PP)?

Re: Party 10/20. Help me with river play please
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oink, what country are you from (since you can play at PP)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Denmark of course. You cant tell from my scandinavian accent..? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways. I have been thinking a lot about this hand. I also posted in on deucescracked where DD was arguing for a c/f.

I have to admit I am surprised that everyone thinks its a b/f (except Stellarwind). I have only played a bit against this guy but as the games at party play calling a raise is MUCH MUCH better than calling a bet if Hero checks.

Villains range is pretty much: fd's, Ax and low to medium pps. He would have played back with good Q's and KK or better. This guy is definetely taking a good A to SD on non flush turn/rivers.

So if hero bets and villain raises his range is pretty much a flush or a low pp turned into a bluff. If I am villain and Hero tanked before betting I would certainly consider an insta raise with a low pp thinking I could fould Qx a good portion of the time.

Even if villain will not bluff enough to warrant a call if raised, the times Hero folds a better hand is eating up a lot of the value in a bet.

I am rambling. But thats cuz I gave this one a lot of thought. I think its a c/f or a b/c. B/f looks good but as the game plays its not better than b/c or c/f IMO.

b/c = c/f &gt;&gt; b/f &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&g t;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;&gt; c/c

(But i am still thinking)

Thanks for your help anyways guys.

I know tl;dr