25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

Villain is 60/13/3 over 45 hands

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $4.50
Hero (BB): $30.30
UTG: $35.45
MP: $16.75
CO: $27.00
BTN: $22.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, UTG calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, UTG calls $2.50, CO folds

River: ($8.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $31.95</font>, Hero

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

And while I'm thinking about a general subject - What are your general thoughts on massive overbets like this on the river from laggy players? Do you consider it likely to be the nuts (or close to it) absent a specific read or do you tend to give them a little less credit?

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

muck for me. you're getting about $22-$30 so you've have to be pretty confident he's bluffing. there's only the flush draw that's really missed and you've been betting pretty strong.

the board is a little bit nasty but not terrible. it is possible he's valuebetting a worse 2 pair.

also his aggression isn't out of line.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

I think it depends (the huge overbets). I need to see them bluff more than once before I look them up, no matter how laggy they are. I feel like a lot of the laggy players are successful in the short-term (and I lose money to them in the short-term) because they make these bets that look crazy and they really are 2 pr or higher almost every time, even if it seems impossible that they played something like 84o and hit the gutshot. I tend to give the short-stack players a lot less credit than the laggy ones.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

You're way less than 2:1 here on the river, which is the bare minimum I think you can call here with. I think you're up against a set of 2's or 6's or even 7's. Not much else this guy can be holding other than a really intense attempt at salvaging a broken flush draw. I doubt that is the case though, because with such a benign river (from his point of view) there really isn't anything to try to represent by a bluff. I think you're beat, and the odds are terrible on the river to find out. Good place to curse a lot and muck.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

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Good place to curse a lot and muck.

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Yeah, I did too much cursing, not enough folding.I have the same tendency I see in a lot of TAGS where if I line doesn't make sense from villain I just get all my chips in.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

I think this might be an easy call..

BTW, aren't you a $100 NL regular? Maybe cashout alot or having a bad run trying to get your foundation back to where it once was? Oh well, good luck either way. But do you think it's possible maybe he has a worse 2 pair like say maybe 64 or 67 that he called on the flop with?

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

Yeah, I'm a 100nl regular but recent cashouts have left me only sort of rolled for it (more like comfortably rolled for 50nl) and recent confidence issues have got me playing 25nl for a week or so

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

I probably fold here. I feel like this is a scenario where calling with J6 (two-pair) would be about the same as calling with AJ (TPTK). This looks like either a bluff with weak holdings or a set, I don't expect many hands of intermediate value.

The guy is loose preflop but his aggression stat isn't that insane.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

Isn't his aggression stat pretty insane for a VPIP of 60%

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

aggression stats are worthless. Aggression frequency for each street is far more useful.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

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Isn't his aggression stat pretty insane for a VPIP of 60%

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nah cos his pfr is quite low. he's probably folding quite a lot when he misses.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

I'd be inclined to call and stack QQ+ or AJ.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

I should have mentioned, for what it's worth his WTSD is 47%. I know we're basing this on a really small sample size, but if he played 60% of his hands and showed down 48% of them,that's 13 hands he's shown down out of 45% dealt. So with a PFAF that high, doesn't that mean he's basically betting and raising or folding for the most part?


FWIW - I'm not 100% sure about the hand I originally posted, because it's easy to be results oriented, but I do think a fold would have been best. Seems like there could be an interesting discussion about how to interpret his stats, and how much weight we can put on his vpip/pfr/pfaf after 45 hands. Of course I know for a typical player we can't put much weight on it, but it seems like we should be able to rely on these stats somewhat more heavily when they're this high. Definitely interested in hearing more about interpreting his stats.

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

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I should have mentioned, for what it's worth his WTSD is 47%. I know we're basing this on a really small sample size, but if he played 60% of his hands and showed down 48% of them,that's 13 hands he's shown down out of 45% dealt. So with a PFAF that high, doesn't that mean he's basically betting and raising or folding for the most part?

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This stat is pretty useless with this sample size. What is much more useful is the information you got from the showndown hands - where is it?


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Seems like there could be an interesting discussion about how to interpret his stats, and how much weight we can put on his vpip/pfr/pfaf after 45 hands. Of course I know for a typical player we can't put much weight on it, but it seems like we should be able to rely on these stats somewhat more heavily when they're this high. Definitely interested in hearing more about interpreting his stats.

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Have you read this post ? /self promotion

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

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FWIW - I'm not 100% sure about the hand I originally posted, because it's easy to be results oriented, but I do think a fold would have been best.

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Well, what were the results?

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

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FWIW - I'm not 100% sure about the hand I originally posted, because it's easy to be results oriented, but I do think a fold would have been best.

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Well, what were the results?

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Villain shows down 53o for the straight

Re: 25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard
 

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FWIW - I'm not 100% sure about the hand I originally posted, because it's easy to be results oriented, but I do think a fold would have been best.

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Well, what were the results?

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Villain shows down 53o for the straight

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Yeah, this actually makes me more confident a river call is right.