good fold? bad fold?
 

Villian is Wuleq, ive played with him a little in the past, he seems a bit lag. At first i thought i made a good laydown but today i was thinking it over again & thought maybe he bluffed me? any help?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($387)
CO ($445)
Hero ($473.50)
SB ($396)
BB ($516.50)
UTG ($278.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $46</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $32.

Flop: ($98) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $220</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $378

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
No showdown. CO wins $378. </font>

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

i was assuming he either flopped a set, had AA or fd w/overs like AK/AQ of hearts, and ran poker stove w/his range 1010, 77, 66, AA &amp; AK of hearts &amp; he was over 88% so i guess it was a good fold

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I see people make plays on this kinda flop all day assuming you have AJs-AK much more than overpairs. I think shoving is best with 100BB stacks. Besides, you beat weakish and scared on the flop neway.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

yeah, but even if hes making a move what kind of hand would he do this with that i beat? jacks? 9's?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I don't mind the fold, even if he has something like Ah, it's basically a flip and you might be in a bad shape against a set or overpair.

You almost never a big favorite here.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

folderino

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

Any history on the table? Have you been 3-betting him a lot? First time? Without much history, I usually shove this but don't feel too great about it. If you've been 3-betting a lot, I shove and feel great about it. If this is like your first time, I'd probably fold, but I wouldn't be too happy.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I would shove here. That's why you bet weak on the flop, right?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

"he seems a bit Lag"

That's enough for shoving here..

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i was thinking it over again &amp; thought maybe he bluffed me?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't beat yourself up.

It was likely a bad fold against this guy, but it wasn't a terrible fold by any means, and if your reads aren't strong yet, you give yourself a chance to get some stronger reads before going with somewhat marginal spots.

Sometimes your gut tells you you're beat, and you should just muck.

If you're gonna fold here, though, just make sure you don't tank. Do it quick.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I was at the table during this and remember the hand. My first instinct shouted he was drawing. I don't think a fold is bad at all there though, as his range with overpairs and sets makes this very tough to play for stacks. I think I would have folded also.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

Uh, if I think that a villain is "a bit lag", I autoshove here. Is that bad?

Edit: I can see 8's or 9's or J's or JT or AT or even AhKx or whatever making this play. And what beats us? The three sets, AA and KK (yes and 89 and 76). Am I wrong here?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, if I think that a villain is "a bit lag", I autoshove here. Is that bad?

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well it looks like villain is wanting to play for stacks after we have shown a lot of strength. Lag or not, this is a real hand, either a monster or a strong draw. I would fold and wait for a better spot, or be more confident of my read.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

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Uh, if I think that a villain is "a bit lag", I autoshove here. Is that bad?

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well it looks like villain is wanting to play for stacks after we have shown a lot of strength. Lag or not, this is a real hand, either a monster or a strong draw. I would fold and wait for a better spot, or be more confident of my read.

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We've re-raised a late position open from a loose player and made a Cbet of a little over half the pot on a dangerous-looking board that's unlikely to have hit our hand. How's that strength?

Edit: it's just a pot-sized raise in a 3-bet pot. This doesn't mean at all that he wants to play for stacks. If he's making a move, he can just as easy get away from this. And not all villains play well in RR pots or plan hands out or bet size well. We don't have to be ahead/coinflip very often to break even here.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Edit: it's just a pot-sized raise in a 3-bet pot. This doesn't mean at all that he wants to play for stacks. If he's making a move, he can just as easy get away from this. And not all villains play well in RR pots or plan hands out or bet size well. We don't have to be ahead/coinflip very often to break even here.

[/ QUOTE ]


He put in 260 and has 180 left. Of course he is playing for stacks.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, if I think that a villain is "a bit lag", I autoshove here. Is that bad?

Edit: I can see 8's or 9's or J's or JT or AT or even AhKx or whatever making this play. And what beats us? The three sets, AA and KK (yes and 89 and 76). Am I wrong here?

[/ QUOTE ]

play around yourself but if we put his range as a mixture of monsters/draws and spazzy stuff like JTs, then it still doesn't look good.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

43,560 games 0.005 secs 8,712,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 7h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.325% 30.70% 00.62% 13374 271.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 68.675% 68.05% 00.62% 29644 271.00 { KK+, TT, 77-66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, ATs, KhQh, QhJh, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 76s }

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, if I think that a villain is "a bit lag", I autoshove here. Is that bad?

Edit: I can see 8's or 9's or J's or JT or AT or even AhKx or whatever making this play. And what beats us? The three sets, AA and KK (yes and 89 and 76). Am I wrong here?

[/ QUOTE ]

play around yourself but if we put his range as a mixture of monsters/draws and spazzy stuff like JTs, then it still doesn't look good.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

43,560 games 0.005 secs 8,712,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 7h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.325% 30.70% 00.62% 13374 271.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 68.675% 68.05% 00.62% 29644 271.00 { KK+, TT, 77-66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, ATs, KhQh, QhJh, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 76s }

[/ QUOTE ]

villian is allowed to bluff.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, if I think that a villain is "a bit lag", I autoshove here. Is that bad?

Edit: I can see 8's or 9's or J's or JT or AT or even AhKx or whatever making this play. And what beats us? The three sets, AA and KK (yes and 89 and 76). Am I wrong here?

[/ QUOTE ]

play around yourself but if we put his range as a mixture of monsters/draws and spazzy stuff like JTs, then it still doesn't look good.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

43,560 games 0.005 secs 8,712,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 7h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.325% 30.70% 00.62% 13374 271.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 68.675% 68.05% 00.62% 29644 271.00 { KK+, TT, 77-66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, ATs, KhQh, QhJh, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 76s }

[/ QUOTE ]

villian is allowed to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you forgot jacks, which is kind of important, and probably a few 88-99 hands. And the other Queens.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

hence i said "play around yourself"

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
hence i said "play around yourself"

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know. At work, so I can't. Appreciate the effort though. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

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i was thinking it over again &amp; thought maybe he bluffed me?

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If you're gonna fold here, though, just make sure you don't tank. Do it quick.

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Explain please. Are we concerned about second guessing ourselves? Is this some sort of image play?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I think he means that if you tank, it's pretty obvious your making a big laydown of an overpair. Hence, villain will try to push you around more in the future and hence he could become more difficult to play against.

I don't necessarily agree, but I do think you need to be aware of timing tells as party of your image, and make adaptations.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he means that if you tank, it's pretty obvious your making a big laydown of an overpair. Hence, villain will try to push you around more in the future and hence he could become more difficult to play against.

I don't necessarily agree, but I do think you need to be aware of timing tells as party of your image, and make adaptations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm always worried that when I fold real fast, I send the message: "Hey you guys, I'm a donkey that bets with all kinds of crap, just raise me once, and I'll be happy to toss it."

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

i never fold here. is that bad?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I took out half of his AA and KK combo's, assuming he'll 4-bet with them 50% of the time. I left in 1/3 of his 88/99 combo's and one combo of JT, 89 and 76. Two combo's of ATs.

Don't know if that's accurate, but I think it's very well possible.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

34,650 games 0.005 secs 6,930,000 games/sec

Board: Th 7h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.792% 39.92% 01.87% 13834 647.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 58.208% 56.34% 01.87% 19522 647.00 { AcAd, AdAh, AhAs, KcKd, KdKh, KhKs, QQ-TT, 9d9h, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8h8s, 77-66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AcTc, AsTs, KhQh, JsTs, 9h8h, 7s6s }


Our EV would depend on how many (if any) of these hands he'd fold if we push. Also, if he ever does this as a total bluff, our fold equity will increase a bit, and this will of course boost our EV.


Edit: let's assume that if we push, he folds a few of his JT, AT, 88 and 99 hands and calls with anything else. This gives us 8% fold equity (and I find it hard to believe it's this low) and leaves us 37.5% pot equity vs his range.

Our EV is then:

0.08*378 + 0.92*0.37*557 - 0.92*0.63*339
= +$23

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I think the problem with your calculation is that you first assume he calls with this range:
AcAd, AdAh, AhAs, KcKd, KdKh, KhKs, QQ-TT, 9d9h, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8h8s, 77-66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AcTc, AsTs, KhQh, JsTs, 9h8h, 7s6s
and then say he folds those hands we beat.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

this reminds me of the hand where Dean folded KK on a similar board to cole and cole had KQo lol

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

Wuleq isn't very LAGy IMO, and you are in bad shape here the majority of the time. If you have the best hand here he has a lot of outs. Also, Bet the flop bigger if you are planning on folding to a raise.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the problem with your calculation is that you first assume he calls with this range:
AcAd, AdAh, AhAs, KcKd, KdKh, KhKs, QQ-TT, 9d9h, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8h8s, 77-66, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AcTc, AsTs, KhQh, JsTs, 9h8h, 7s6s
and then say he folds those hands we beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Why would that be a problem?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

If called we don`t win that the same percentage as vs his range. I can`t see him calling with worse hand then crazy AT and perhaps JJ. So you have first to make the range with which he`s raising and then with which he`s calling.
2nd i doubt he raises TP or JJ on this board in a 3bet pot if he`s not stupid. If he is than poosh.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

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So you have first to make the range with which he`s raising and then with which he`s calling.

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I did.

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2nd i doubt he raises TP or JJ on this board in a 3bet pot if he`s not stupid. If he is than poosh.

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That's why I didn't leave all TP combo's in his range. I can definitely see him play JJ like this though.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

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If you're gonna fold here, though, just make sure you don't tank. Do it quick.

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Why? So you don't give off the image that you can be run over?

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

i appreciate all the responses, definately agree i shdve bet more on the flop, but something told me i was beat when he raised.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

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If you're gonna fold here, though, just make sure you don't tank. Do it quick.

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Why? So you don't give off the image that you can be run over?

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Pretty much. It also gives the impression that you're re-raising lighter than you really are, at no extra cost.

He'll probably just put you on AK/crap and move on if fold quick, whereas if he thinks you're in there making big laydowns, you'll get yourself in a lot of tough spots. Admittedly, some of them will be profitable, since he'll bluff you a bit more, but once you do try to look him up, he'll have to fear a big hand a lot more.

Re: good fold? bad fold?
 

I dislike bet-folding here with QQ.