KG
 

I really have no idea where he's going at this point, so lets have some people who think they know throw out some absurd percentages.

Chances he is a twolve in 2007-08?
Chances he is a sun?
Chances he is a laker?
Chances he is a warrior?
Chances he is a bull?
Chances he is with someone else? (specify)

READY SET GO

Re: KG
 

From my understanding after reading about a thousand Star Tribune articles from people who, at least theoretically, have a lot of access and inside information in the Twolves front office, the chances of him being a Tpup in 07-08 is pretty much 0%.

Re: KG
 

[censored] the Twolves front office

I think he's going to go to a contending team for league-minimum(or close to it) once he gets out of MN

Re: KG
 

chances he is a Celtic? 3%

If that were to happen, even though it means shipping my favorite player of the last 3 years, chances of me moving back to Boston? 100%

I'm pretty sure he gets shipped, though.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] the Twolves front office

I think he's going to go to a contending team for league-minimum(or close to it) once he gets out of MN

[/ QUOTE ]


No chance KG takes a discount to go to a contender at this point in his career. He is going to be looking for 1 more max contract, in 6 years he will be in a position to take the minimum to make a run at a ring.

Re: KG
 

So im bumping my own crappy thread with a dumb question. Say KG says he only wants to go to the suns and says he will not resign anywhere else, making no other team want him. Shouldnt the twolves move him to the Suns for rights to the hawks pick + marion + another, because they wouldnt get anything otherwise? What am I missing here, unless they just keep him around to sell tickets for one more year.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[censored] the Twolves front office

I think he's going to go to a contending team for league-minimum(or close to it) once he gets out of MN

[/ QUOTE ]


No chance KG takes a discount to go to a contender at this point in his career. He is going to be looking for 1 more max contract, in 6 years he will be in a position to take the minimum to make a run at a ring.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's going to take the minimum from the Suns, Spurs, Utah, Lakers, or maybe Portland/Seattle. What you don't understand is that the utility earning another $60M after tax isn't that meaningful when your career after tax earnings easily double that.

Being worth $120M + having a championship ring >>>> being worth $180M with no ring. Esp. when the cash difference is even less, because being a core player on a championship means tens of millions in additional career endorsement earnings. And let's face it, in 6 years he's not going to be a top player anymore and won't be able to contribute much to a championship. He might not even be able to get on to a championship level team taking the veterans minimum at that point.

Re: KG
 

I'd be willing to take a prop bet that KG doesn't take the veteran's minimum next season from any team. A big one. 1K.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[censored] the Twolves front office

I think he's going to go to a contending team for league-minimum(or close to it) once he gets out of MN

[/ QUOTE ]


No chance KG takes a discount to go to a contender at this point in his career. He is going to be looking for 1 more max contract, in 6 years he will be in a position to take the minimum to make a run at a ring.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's going to take the minimum from the Suns, Spurs, Utah, Lakers, or maybe Portland/Seattle. What you don't understand is that the utility earning another $60M after tax isn't that meaningful when your career after tax earnings easily double that.

Being worth $120M + having a championship ring >>>> being worth $180M with no ring. Esp. when the cash difference is even less, because being a core player on a championship means tens of millions in additional career endorsement earnings. And let's face it, in 6 years he's not going to be a top player anymore and won't be able to contribute much to a championship. He might not even be able to get on to a championship level team taking the veterans minimum at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all that was true, you'd see guys taking massive discounts all the time. But, you almost never do. $60 million is still $60 million, no matter how much you have in the bank.

Re: KG
 

Anyone who thinks KG will opt out of a $24M salary in 08/09 in order to sign for the vet minimum somewhere else is nuts.

As a straight FA, the most he can get is the current max (the contract he's playing under is from a different CBA), which is about half of what he'd make under his current contract.

KG's not getting traded this summer - the natural trade partners have made moves making it impossible to make a deal, apart from perhaps Golden State. My best guess is that another 30-50 year will inspire KG to push for a move after this coming year when he'll threaten to opt out (or actually do it) in order to force a sign-and-trade to another team who'll pay him a similarly gaudy amount (say a 3-year, $60M deal or something along those lines).

Re: KG
 

I definitely dont think he would take the minimum, but I dont see why a guy who badly wants to win wouldnt settle for say, a lousy 12-14 mil a year?

Re: KG
 

sorry if i haven't kept up to date, but where is this idea coming from that KG will take the min when he's still in position for one more long term deal??

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely dont think he would take the minimum, but I dont see why a guy who badly wants to win wouldnt settle for say, a lousy 12-14 mil a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I overstated it when I say sign for the minimum. But he ain't staying with the TWolves. He probably will work a sign and trade and get a decent salary, but no amount of money is going to make up for not winning a ring.

So he's going to direct himself to a team where he can win one, perhaps to PHX where he can play alongside one of his best friends, a Mr. Nash. The Suns can do a trade with Marion now, or let him opt out and work a sign and trade, or sign him for the minimum or exception for one year, rework their cap, then resign him the next year to a bigger deal.

Most players who take the money haven't gotten the money yet. KG has been the 2nd highest paid NBA player in all history. Not only does he not need another max deal, he's the rare NBA player who's smart enough to understand that.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be willing to take a prop bet that KG doesn't take the veteran's minimum next season from any team. A big one. 1K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bet that he opts out and moves to a better team and voluntarily takes a substantial pay cut. Is that interesting to you?

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] the Twolves front office

I think he's going to go to a contending team for league-minimum(or close to it) once he gets out of MN

[/ QUOTE ]

The Wizards will have Jamison's huge contract expiring. While they are going to have to break the bank for Arenas, I still think they'll have some cap room.

Arenas
Stevenson
Butler
Garnett
Haywood

Bench: Young, Navarro(??), Thomas(??), Blatche, Daniels

Thats gotta be favorites to win the East at least.

Re: KG
 

Define substantial. He's currently the highest played player in the league. He won't command that kind of money as a 30 yaer old. But it won't be in the $12-14M range, either. I think he'll probably sign for 16-17M a year.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Define substantial. He's currently the highest played player in the league. He won't command that kind of money as a 30 yaer old. But it won't be in the $12-14M range, either. I think he'll probably sign for 16-17M a year.

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Yea I know hed demand that. I guess my point for the sake of argument was would he take 12-14 mil to play for the suns or mavs over 17 mil to play for the warrs/bulls/lakers? Basically would he take any type of cut to play for a legit contender over a possible contender.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be willing to take a prop bet that KG doesn't take the veteran's minimum next season from any team. A big one. 1K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bet that he opts out and moves to a better team and voluntarily takes a substantial pay cut. Is that interesting to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bet you that he will not opt out of his deal next season AND take substantially less than his market value (max) to go on a team that would widely be considered as a top 3 team in the NBA with his presence to win a championship.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely dont think he would take the minimum, but I dont see why a guy who badly wants to win wouldnt settle for say, a lousy 12-14 mil a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm...because he can get $20M a year from a contender in a sign and trade?

More to the point, it's an irrelevant question. The only way he gets $12-14M a year is by signing with a complete crap team (eg. one with that amount of cap room). I promise you that the next contract he signs will be an extension with Minny (unlikely) or a new contract that gets sign-and-traded to a more "acceptable" team for around $20M a year. It's a lot like the Shaq situation his last year in LA, except that unlike Shaq, KG probably won't want to stay with his taem...Shaq wanted a massive money extension (reportedly 90M for 3 years, or something similarly laughable), then got traded to Miami where he accepted an $80M, 4-year extention through 2010.

I agree that he's probably "worth" more like 15-17M, but he'll get more.

As for the suggestion that the Wiz could sign him, not an option. Even with Jamison's silly $16M salary off the books in 10 months' time, the Wiz are still at $51M for 08/09 - and that assumes they don't sign a FA this summer or trade for any salary in a Navarro trade. With the cap around $56M, assume $58-59M next year, they'd only have 7-8M in cap room. More to the point, Arenas is opting out and will command a max salary when he re-ups there. His jump from $13M to $16M will kill a chunk of that cap room.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]


Umm...because he can get $20M a year from a contender in a sign and trade?

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from what contender? the suns would do it if they could drop marion + another, but i dont see how they will be able to do that. What other legit contender would sign him for 20m? The warrs/lakers/bulls signing KG doesnt necessarily put them at the suns/spurs/mavs level

Re: KG
 

Any contender that's willing to give up $20M in salary which includes enough "stuff" for Minny to pull the trigger.

Right now, Minny has all the power...if/when KG opts out next summer, he can threaten to simply sign with some team for the midlevel in order to force Minny to do a sign-and-trade - a situation in which they'd get a lot less than they can get now. If KG decided he wanted to play for Miami right now, there's nothing he can really do. If he decided that in 10 months, he can make it happen...and given the positive history and goodwill he has with Minny, one has to imagine they'd accomodate his wishes if they could get any sort of fair return.

Also...imo, "signing" KG isn't an option for any team next summer...it's all in the context of a sign-and-trade, for the reasons I noted in my above post. If KG decides he wants to be on the Lakers (for instance), next summer Minny takes Bynum and Odom's expiring contract and then sign-and-trades KG to the Lakers (with his new 4/yr $80M contract) along with spare parts. Same thing with Marion and Atlanta's 1st, or Josh Howard and Devin Harris, or any other of a half-dozen teams that are or would become championship calibre with KG suiting up for them.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]


As for the suggestion that the Wiz could sign him, not an option. Even with Jamison's silly $16M salary off the books in 10 months' time, the Wiz are still at $51M for 08/09 - and that assumes they don't sign a FA this summer or trade for any salary in a Navarro trade. With the cap around $56M, assume $58-59M next year, they'd only have 7-8M in cap room. More to the point, Arenas is opting out and will command a max salary when he re-ups there. His jump from $13M to $16M will kill a chunk of that cap room.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the analysis. Yeah I'm probably just being a homer. However I will note that they're looking to dump salary(by packaging Thomas) in any deal involving Navarro, not add it.

Re: KG
 

[ QUOTE ]


Also...imo, "signing" KG isn't an option for any team next summer...it's all in the context of a sign-and-trade, for the reasons I noted in my above post. If KG decides he wants to be on the Lakers (for instance), next summer Minny takes Bynum and Odom's expiring contract and then sign-and-trades KG to the Lakers (with his new 4/yr $80M contract) along with spare parts. Same thing with Marion and Atlanta's 1st, or Josh Howard and Devin Harris, or any other of a half-dozen teams that are or would become championship calibre with KG suiting up for them.

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But if KG wants to be on the Lakers, won't he want to play with Odom and Bynum? Without them, the Lakers are a two man team without any bench or depth. For the Suns, Marion is gone anyways, but otherwise trying to work a sign and trade to gut the team you are going hurts your chances at a ring.

I'm betting he's smart enough to see this and take much less than market to get a deal done that doesn't cost his new team too much in terms of talent.

Re: KG
 

I would guess that both Kobe and KG would tell you that if they had even a marginal surrounding cast (say, Derek Fisher, Luke Walton, some midlevel signing next summer, either Farmar/Crittendon if either develops into a solid rotation guy in the next year.

The Kobe/Shaq surrounding cast was pretty bad - Fox, Shaw, Horry, George, Fisher, Madsen, Medvedenko, Walker.

If you have two top 10 players, you can do some damage. I don't want the Lakers to trade Odom/Bynum for Garnett for long-term reasons, but I definitely think it improves them considerably in the short run. Two of the most dominant two-way players in the NBA - one on the wing and one in the post?

Not likely - I agree that Phoenix is the most intuitive destination, possible Golden State.