Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

Hey guys, its been awhile since I posted. I appreciate your input.

Game is 10/20 NL. My stack is 7K and Chubs to my right barely covers me. Everyone else at the table is in the 2-4K range. Chubs seems to be a pretty decent player. Hes been running really hot and caught up big time on a couple hands that he was way behind on. I get the feeling that he's tightened up a bit and doesn't want to lose the stack he's built. Bears' Fan is one of the tightest players at the table and I haven't seen him do anything crazy. I am dealt 2 2.

UTG limps, then folded to Chubs who makes it 80, I call, 2 behind me call, then Bears' Fan in the BB rr to 480. UTG calls, then chubs calls. I call with my deuces and both players behind me call as well.

Flop is K 9 2 rainbow (pot 2880)
One check to Bears' fan who pushes AI for 2900. Chubs doesn't hesitate to get his chips in the pot and starts talking while he makes the call. Based on his posture, his talk, and his mannerisms while making the call I read him for a very strong hand. He even said something about it might be time to go home, which I’ve found is very often a signal of strength.
I think for a bit and decide that I can't fold this hand, regardless of my read. So I call. Chubs and the rest of the table are surprised to see me overcall here. Usually I push here but my gut held me back.

Everyone else folds and the turn is a J (pot 11580). Chubs checks and I decide to check behind. River is a 4 (no flush) and Chubs checks again.

At this point I found myself in conflict: on the one hand my read was that Chubs was very strong. On the other hand my logic told me I must have the best hand for the following reasons:
If Chubs did flop KKK or 999, then he must know that I also flopped a very strong hand in order to overcall on the flop (and he should know I'm not a fish based on what he’s seen). I can't be calling the flop with QT or JJ. If he has 999, he should think it pretty much impossible for me to have KKK since I smooth called his pfr, then I also only called the 480 bet after Bears' Fan, another guy and Chubs all entered the pot. So my logic says that if he does have KKK or 999, then he must know that he has the best hand on the flop and subsequently the best hand on the river, but that I also have a strong hand. So how can Chubs not bet the turn and river if he has either of these two hands? He can’t be checking hoping to entice a bluff on the river because I can’t be bluffing. I can’t be bluffing because Bears’ Fan is already AI with a real hand and because there was no draw for me to call with on the flop. So because Chubs can't expect me to bet either of these streets without a strong hand, why wouldn’t he bet himself, knowing that he has a stronger hand with KKK or 999 and that he will likely get paid off because I also have a strong hand and the pot is huge?

So I couldn’t decide whether to go with my logic and value bet the river, hoping to get called by AK or K9s OR check behind based on my read that he was really strong. I also felt it was pretty weak to check behind both streets after flopping a set and this also was an itch begging me to scratch it.

So what do you guys think?

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

bet and get called by AA.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I could totally see the described villian deciding to check down 999 here because live people suck and he just felt like it. Is It possible he can have AA here given pf or will villian always 4 bet? AA seems super likely if he will flatcall it here preflop. I think I would just be too sick if I checked behind and was shown AK/AA, but then again he is probobly folding them to a bet. K9 doesnt really make sense given how he was playing. This kinda sucks cause he should be able ot play perfectly against you putting you on a pretty narrow range. my decision I guess comes down to if he can have AA or not here, because it sure looks like it.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I'd check simply because you're not getting paid by K9 here, there's nothing you can have other than 222 or maybe 999

Ignore if dude plays bad or is drunk or whatever

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I think it's more likely that he has 999 and played it like this than that he has AK and played it like this and will pay you off. Are you ahead 50% of the time when called/raised? Very doubtful. I'd check against player as described.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I think you have to push on the river. It's extremely unlikely that he would play 999 this way (and KKK even less likely); it makes ZERO sense for him to not bet those hands on the river. On the other hand, AK could easily take this line. I say give him a chance to make a hero call, which will happen more often than him having you beat.

As to your read that Chubs thinks his hand is very strong, obviously the read is correct. But that doesn't mean that he necessarily flopped a set.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

Why would you call the flop, if you're not going to bet the turn or the river. I think he most likely has AK here.

I would definately value bet the river here..

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I don't play this high but from the action I think it is more likely that Bears fan has AA/AK. That really reduces chubs range.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

bet 3k on the turn or on the river

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

if you had KK u would have surely raised preflop which chubs will know. if he had KK he would have reraised pre. if he had 99 he wouldnt be checking the turn and river based on the fact he knows u dont have KK so i value bet\shove the river and expect to see AA or sometimes Ak

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I think on the river you have to shove here. I don't see how there is any way Chubs checks ALL the way down here with kkk or 999 especially on the river. If he has 999 and he was afraid of you having kkk surely he can't think that anymore after you check the turn. And if he has kkk surely he bets the river EVERY time with this, since if he was trying to induce another bet by you on the turn and you didn't bite then I am guessing he would have to bet the river. If I had 999 here and I was him I would be trying to get money out of you in a sidepot because it is very likely Bears may have kkk here. I think Chubs has either poorly played AA here(by not 4 betting pre when it seemed very likely that he could be in a 5-way pot oop with AA) or ak. My guess is you checked the river and Chubs showed AA and Bears showed kkk and you immediately got up from the table and walked laps around the casino saying I knew my logic was right.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

By the way, are you the same duck butter that use to play a lot of limit on empire and party before doomsday?

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

This is an interesting hand. I check behind the river.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is an interesting hand. I check behind the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your gonna get check raised all in by 999

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hes been running really hot and caught up big time on a couple hands that he was way behind on. I get the feeling that he's tightened up a bit and doesn't want to lose the stack he's built.

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really important... in addition to the fact that tight and straightforward player went all-in representing a big pair, this dude called on a drawless board saying he can beat a big pair or has something similar himself, and then you overcall saying you think you can beat them both. I think you would have to bet extremely small in order to get him to call with AK; he'd basically be calling hoping to chop. Your hand looks huge here and it's a protected pot and he's not in the mood to make a big call anyway... so even though you are ahead here very often, you're not going to be ahead so much when he actually calls a big bet. The fact that it seems unlikely for him to play a bigger set this way has to be weighed against the fact that it's unlikely for him to actually payoff with worse.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

Hi duck butter,

C'mon Bro. He flopped top two or has AK. Put the rest in and hope he calls. Nothing else makes enough sense to have you check behind him twice.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

This thread is baffling. Why would the villain EVER check 99 TWICE?? I know it's cliche but if your not willing to bet this river after given action(you only have 3500 left in an 11K pot), you prob should play smaller or not play this deep.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

the question is not whether or not he will check 999 twice. the question is, as always, are you ahead 50%+ WHEN CALLED. I don't think you are, so I would check. That has nothing to do with playing too deep or playing too big. That has everything to do with the opponent description and the texture of the flop as well as the preflop action.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[censored]. i want to shove this river so f'n bad. But TWP is right, there isn't enough value from AA/AK, especially from a player like this.

I know this is above my stakes, but calling flop is a crime IMO.

Actually...

This is live, ppl do stupid things. Just jam it and pray he calls w/ AA/AK. I think you are good here ALWAYS. And your check-to-the-river-then-shove line looks fishy ===> profit?

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
the question is not whether or not he will check 999 twice. the question is, as always, are you ahead 50%+ WHEN CALLED. I don't think you are, so I would check. That has nothing to do with playing too deep or playing too big. That has everything to do with the opponent description and the texture of the flop as well as the preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the answer is obvious; he usually will call with whatever he called 2900 with, though he doesn't really want to have to. That means he can't beat 222, most of the time.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

results?

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

wouldn't it be crazy if villian knows that when you overcalled the flop, the only hand that would make sense is 999 or 222. and if he has 999 or KKK then he knows you don't have 999 so 222 is the only hand you have.

so i guess what i'm saying is that he knows he won't get value out of you if he 2/3rds or pots it on the turn or river, he knows you'll bet the river if checked to twice and he can CRAI on the river.

this seems really farfetched but this would be some crazy play. or am i just thinking on the 12th level?..

p.s. i'm high.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

not shoving is crazy imo

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

so i guess what i'm saying is that he knows he won't get value out of you if he 2/3rds or pots it on the turn or river, he knows you'll bet the river if checked to twice and he can CRAI on the river.

this seems really farfetched but this would be some crazy play. or am i just thinking on the 12th level?..
p.s. i'm high.

Dude, he won't get value out of hero if he bets turn or river? The guy just called an all-in and a cold call. The pot is approx. 12k and he has 3.5k left and he KNOWS he will bet river if checked to on turn.
Wow, I will pay you double for whatever you smoked to get that high and pay for shipping and handling charges.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

i agree, you gotta bet this river.
villain likely does not have KK (or AA for that matter) b/c he likely would have 4-bet preflop to shut yall out of the pot, especially when everyone's sitting deep.
and i dont think he'd check 99 on the river after you checked behind on the turn.
I put him squarely on AK here, and I think you need to bet, esp. since your shove is only like half the pot (if i did the math right), so he could def. make a crying call, although if he's smart he'd dump AK here

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

I thought this hand was really interesting and wanted to read a lot of the replies before I posted. Also the pot is around 2k on the flop, no? I thought that was really important if SB overbet shoved for 2.9k or 2k.

Anyway, I think we're solidly ahead of Chub here. I'm more worried about the SB. Would be really awful for him to flip over JJ and scoop a three way pot when you can get some value out of a currently dry side pot.

Way I see it is SB pots a dry flop ai (maybe a huge overbet too?). Probably pretty unlikely he holds 99 or KK himself here. I think he holds AA/AK and the less likely QQ/JJ. Logic on QQ/JJ is thinks his overbet shove and the unlikelyhood of one villain holding AA/KK gets folds on the flop from his massive strength. Anyway, point is I think you're ahead of sb but not discounting the possibility of QQ/JJ.

Anyway, you know chubs is strong here but him checking a higher set 2x is really unlikely. If he is strong enough to call the flop shove he has to be able to at least call 50-100bb on the river from you. I think thats enough incentive to try and get some money in so you're not just showing down in one pot three ways.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

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not shoving is crazy imo

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He can't have KK (based on PF) - and he knows you don't have KKK either. 999 would NOT check twice. He has AK most likely.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

Does villain get pot stuck? Cause folding with 1.5 buyins in the middle even w/o a side pot, is not something lots of villains do. Honestly, based on how he is playing I think he is just hoping pot stays small w/ AA AK, doesnt really say he can lay it down for a bet...he might convince himself to call

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not shoving is crazy imo

[/ QUOTE ]

He can't have KK (based on PF) - and he knows you don't have KKK either. 999 would NOT check twice. He has AK most likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have way too much confidence in what a "decent" guy in a live game can and can't do

if Jennifer Tilly can check down jacks full for fear of getting super-slowplayed by pocket kings turned set of kings rivered quad kings, then I'm sure some random guy out there can check down second set fearing the guy that overcalled a hugeass bet behind him has the nuts

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

def looks like a shove to me, he'll talk himself into a call with AA in this huge pot more often than he'll show up with a better hand, I think.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

"He even said something about it might be time to go home, which I’ve found is very often a signal of strength."

True, but rarely a monster. I find the vast majority of the time they do have a good hand but know it's easily beat and could in fact send them home.

Knowing how he'd think you'd play AK there is key to his hand.

He can't have AA here. He made it 80 pf, 3 callers, then BB makes it 480 str with about 3K left. Just calling pf there with AA makes no sense. Same for KK.

That leaves AK-99. If he has AK then he gives you either AK-99-22 and would explain his line.
With the pot so big and stacks being offered like 4-1 or 5-1, he should be more inclined to value bet the river with 99 rather than induce a bluff.

I'd push and expect to be called by AK. Only reason not too would be if you'd expect he'd lay down rather than get felted with AK there. Even at that big a price.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

get this in any way possible...espcially given river action
how do you call 3k on flop with the intention of not wanting to get the 4k behind in at some point..

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

bet and call checkraise

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is It possible he can have AA here given pf or will villian always 4 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks bigballz - I never considered Chubs for AA here. He wants to protect his big stack he’s built and by allowing at least 2 opponents (and very likely 3 or more) to see a flop against his AA is a horrible way to hang on to the stack he’s built. I think a 4 bet pf is mandatory given the action and the likeliness that at least myself (if not 2 others as well) will also call.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's more likely that he has 999 and played it like this than that he has AK and played it like this and will pay you off. Are you ahead 50% of the time when called/raised? Very doubtful. I'd check against player as described.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks TWP – I really like your logic here. I feel he has a hard time calling off 3500 more with a worse hand, unless he can convince himself to because of the size of the pot. However there is some bet size on my part that must be a mandatory call for him based on the pot size. This was a consideration in the line I took and could have backfired if he indeed c/r me AI.

[ QUOTE ]
As to your read that Chubs thinks his hand is very strong, obviously the read is correct. But that doesn't mean that he necessarily flopped a set.

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Thanks sards – A good point and something that I rehashed in my head before making my decision on the river.

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I think on the river you have to shove here. I don't see how there is any way Chubs checks ALL the way down here with kkk or 999 especially on the river. If he has 999 and he was afraid of you having kkk surely he can't think that anymore after you check the turn. And if he has kkk surely he bets the river EVERY time with this, since if he was trying to induce another bet by you on the turn and you didn't bite then I am guessing he would have to bet the river. If I had 999 here and I was him I would be trying to get money out of you in a sidepot because it is very likely Bears may have kkk here. I think Chubs has either poorly played AA here(by not 4 betting pre when it seemed very likely that he could be in a 5-way pot oop with AA) or ak.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks IShearSheep – I agree completely with your analysis with the exception of it being very likely that Bears has KKK. I thought it was most likely that Chubs had AK (not AA because of my reasoning above, and yes he would have been playing it poorly).

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, are you the same duck butter that use to play a lot of limit on empire and party before doomsday?

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No, I have never used Duck Butter as my screen name and never played on Empire.

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I think you would have to bet extremely small in order to get him to call with AK; he'd basically be calling hoping to chop.

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[ QUOTE ]
The fact that it seems unlikely for him to play a bigger set this way has to be weighed against the fact that it's unlikely for him to actually payoff with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks soah – the first point I seriously considered and factored into the line I took. Second point is very well said.




[ QUOTE ]
He flopped top two or has AK. Put the rest in and hope he calls. Nothing else makes enough sense to have you check behind him twice.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks cero z – This is what I ended up concluding at the table, although I decided against shoving.

[ QUOTE ]
but calling flop is a crime IMO.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks whorasaurus – I think this statement is pretty extreme. And apparently you now do as well. =)

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wouldn't it be crazy if villian knows that when you overcalled the flop, the only hand that would make sense is 999 or 222. and if he has 999 or KKK then he knows you don't have 999 so 222 is the only hand you have.
so i guess what i'm saying is that he knows he won't get value out of you if he 2/3rds or pots it on the turn or river, he knows you'll bet the river if checked to twice and he can CRAI on the river.
this seems really farfetched but this would be some crazy play. or am i just thinking on the 12th level?..
p.s. i'm high.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks jungy – yes, I think you are trying to think on too many levels here….or perhaps its because you’re high.

[ QUOTE ]
villain likely does not have KK (or AA for that matter) b/c he likely would have 4-bet preflop to shut yall out of the pot, especially when everyone's sitting deep.
and i dont think he'd check 99 on the river after you checked behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks Drag – I agree completely.

[ QUOTE ]
Logic on QQ/JJ is thinks his overbet shove and the unlikelyhood of one villain holding AA/KK gets folds on the flop from his massive strength.

[/ QUOTE ] If you reread my OP you’ll see he actually made a pot sized bet against 5 players which is the only bet he can make if he is going to bet.

[ QUOTE ]
he should be more inclined to value bet the river with 99 rather than induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks SA125 but there is no bluff to induce here. But yes, he should certainly value bet 99.

[ QUOTE ]
bet and call checkraise

[/ QUOTE ] Thanks Grimstarr – you’re the only person who advocates betting the river but not shoving. Which is actually what I did. Although I must admit I think shoving is the most logical bet if I am going to bet given the pot size.


For all the reasons listed in this thread I ended up deciding my opponent must have AK. I also deduced that he could not call my AI bet of 3500 because he really didn’t want to lose his stack and I obviously appear to be very strong. Against a normal player if I bet I’m going to shove due to the pot size and I really think that shoving is the only logical bet almost all of the time. I inferred that my read on Chubs being VERY strong must have been a mistake due to the logic of the way the hand was played. I decided to bet 1200 into an 11580 pot thinking Chubs would have to call this amount with AK hoping to chop, but that he couldn’t call much more. And of course I was prepared to call a c/r AI, although be very unhappy about it. Chubs in fact CALLED me and flipped over 99. When I seemed perplexed he made a comment that the “pot was big enough.”
Due to this ridiculous statement and him check calling down here with 99 I can only conclude that he was playing scared and playing at stakes over his comfort level. He obviously was afraid that I just might have KK here although it made 0 sense given the preflop action.

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

i win. even though i agree with what everyone said who argued for a bet. i just dont think they were weighing the player description enough, though. it was a very precise description...

Re: Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to bet 1200 into an 11580 pot thinking Chubs would have to call this amount with AK hoping to chop, but that he couldn’t call much more. And of course I was prepared to call a c/r AI, although be very unhappy about it. Chubs in fact CALLED me and flipped over 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW at live poker.

I still think shoving the river is the best play. I just don't get the logic of calling ~3K on a dry flop like that. Then not being THRILLED to get our last ~3500ish AI( in a 11.5K pot!) on the river after villain checks it twice.