Cable and CHTR
 

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

anyone who knows what their doing care to comment on this?

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

Paging DC.

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

Scorpion, got it on CHTR a couple weeks ago after I PMed you. Thanks again

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

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anyone who knows what their doing care to comment on this?

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based on cablevisions projections we can assume CHTR will have around 350 mil in free cash flow by 2010. at 10x 2010 projected free cash flow CHTR would be worth $8.50 per share today on a net present value basis. at 15x, $12.75.

cablevisions projections look really optimistic. reducing capex for five consecutive years in this industry is impressive. "due to a decline over the plan period of digital subscriber additions as a result of Cablevision’s maturing digital penetration." -- i do not understand that, will CHTR be able to do this?

im too lazy to look since i do not have any interest in thse companies, but how similar are CVC and CHTR?

you have anything to add sm?

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

given a 6% (modest when compared to CVCs projections) increase in ebitda for CHTR at a 11x multiple puts them at right around $8.50 a share as well.

i took ebitda, debt and shares from yahoo so they might be off.

((1960*1.06*11)-19340)/408=$8.61

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

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given a 6% (modest when compared to CVCs projections) increase in ebitda for CHTR at a 11x multiple puts them at right around $8.50 a share as well.

i took ebitda, debt and shares from yahoo so they might be off.

((1960*1.06*11)-19340)/408=$8.61

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Basic thesis is that people are underestimating the ebitda growth - this can be close to 15% for many years as they rollout VOIP and start marketing more aggressively in general again. Worst thing that could happen for charter is interest rates spiking.

Best news is that this stock is barely on people's radar screen despite the fact that it is a substantial company ($22Bish ent value). Otherwise, the leverage works for us here as things are getting better and this will start to hit people's radar screens. I own CMCSK as well, but CHTR will scream if that article I posted is right.

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

i worked backwards to get the 6%. wanted to see what growth was needed to hit 8.50 area. obviously with 15% the stock is big bargain.

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

Isn't Verizon taking a huge share in the markets it's entered?

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

Anyone have any comments on the recent Q2 reports or why CHTR has been tanking lately?

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

I don't really know much, but I imagine in this broad downturn the higher leveraged companies are more volatile? I think they missed analyst estimates pretty badly.

These last few weeks have been a brutal way to start my active portfolio career. I deserve it though for trying to trail SM and DC lol. Down 27% with nick, dfc, usg, chtr, and dsup. No idea what I'm doing. Coincedentally saw an old Seinfeld episode yesterday where George and Jerry take a stock tip. Like George, I'm going down with these ships!

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

lots of news today with talks of CHTR going private and it had a big spike this afternoon (and then went back down)

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

Taking Charter (CHTR) Private

Billionaire Paul Allen disclosed that he was looking that the possibility of taking Charter Communications (CHTR) private or "a recapitalization or restructuring designed to reduce Charter's leverage", according to The Wall Street Journal.

Dream on. Charter has $19.6 billion in debt, which is not ideal in any environment. In the current market it is deadly. Even with all of Allen's money, it is hard to see how he could buy-out current public shareholders and support the debt.

Charter's stock jumped up briefly on the news, but still traded as low as $2.45, close to it 52-week low. Charter would have to appoint independent directors to review any deal, as happened at Cablevision (CVC) when the founding Dolan family offered to buy-out its public shareholders. Charter traded near $5 in mid-July, so it may be hard to convince directors to take much less than that.

At $4.50 a share, the cost of buying in all of the public float would be close to $2 billion. The company simply could not support that amount plus the current debt load.

Allen could also try to sell the company's assets to another firm, perhaps Comcast (CMCSA). But, with the debt that would have to be assumed, the price would be at least $25 billion. The company's operating income run rate is about $750 million. So a sticker that high is not going to attract a buyer.

Charter is going to have to dig itself out the old fashion way. Costs and capex are going to have to stay low which is hard when it needs to compete with large telecom companies coming to market with fiber-to-the-home broadband and TV services.

Charter is a company with no good options.

Douglas A. McIntyre

http://www.247wallst.com/2007/08/taking-charter-.html

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

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Isn't Verizon taking a huge share in the markets it's entered?

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I read in a Business Week article today where Roberts from Comcast said that a technology exists so that speeds of upto 150 mbps can be reached with their current cable infrasctucture; no more digging needed. That should help preseve market share when if ever users will need that high of a speed.

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

bump, Q3 came out and it's down to 1.18 at the moment

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

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bump, Q3 came out and it's down to 1.18 at the moment

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you guys are better off listening to SHOE. this guy has picked nothing but lemons.

Re: Cable and CHTR
 

this thing looks like its headed to bankrutpcy to me. How and when do they plan on making money? That debt is such a huge burden and now they are losing suscribers? I have a hard time seeing new customers wanting to sign up to a sinking company like this.