am i just playing terribly lately?
 

wtf can he have?

he is 29/18ish, can be tricky, capable of running big bluffs (ie 4bet 84o preflop open shove KT4r flop w 200bb stacks)

i haven't been sitting long, I just lost a pot where I was caught bluffing and didn't reload in time.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $200/$400 Blinds - 5 Players

MUCKEMSAYUHH: $30,033.00
Ace18: $219,662.00
StillTippin: $22,000.00
noataima: $24,264.00
pr1nnyraid: $60,269.50

Preflop: MUCKEMSAYUHH is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">MUCKEMSAYUHH raises to $1,200.00</font>, Ace18 calls $800.00

Flop: ($2400) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MUCKEMSAYUHH bets $2,000.00</font>, Ace18 calls $2,000.00

Turn: ($6400) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MUCKEMSAYUHH checks, <font color="red">Ace18 bets $5,500.00</font>, MUCKEMSAYUHH calls $5,500.00

River: ($17400) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MUCKEMSAYUHH checks, <font color="red">Ace18 bets all-in for $210,962.00</font>, MUCKEMSAYUHH calls all-in for $21,333.00

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

meh, seems pretty standard/good. you could crai the turn I guess unless you think he's floating here a lot a lot.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

I dont get it. Do you have any rationale for thinking he doesnt have:
a)quads
b)a full house
c)nut flush

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

pretty sure flush is the only thing he should be worried about here.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure flush is the only thing he should be worried about here.

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yah- 200/400 is def that easy.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

why? cts is very active preflop. if villain has a set, it's very likely cts is drawing dead and will fold to a raise. for less than 100bb, i think flat calling the flop is totally fine, hoping cts keeps the lead.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

I don't mind the check on the turn... if you think you have the best hand you should raise, otherwise you should check-fold.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

if you double barrel frequently on boards like this, as i suspect that you do, i think he can slowplay a decent amount of stuff that made a big hand on the turn... also, why can't he have a mid-heart or something random, i dont' get it, why can't he have ace-jack with the jack of hearts, seems completely legit

edit: since ppl love to float ace high boards, not saying this is idela since it's draw heavy, but don't see why he can't float here, and decide for some resaon to bet the turn with his random float and one heart- or why can't he have a 6 turned into a bluff, or why can't he have a heart with a six, or a heart with a gutshot, etc.

what i'm getting at is why can't he shove the 9 of hearts, for instance, on this river, for value?

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind the check on the turn... if you think you have the best hand you should raise, otherwise you should check-fold.

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Why? Would you really say that if the river wasn't another heart?

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

ae: what is the worst hand you think he value shoves for over pot tho?

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

ae: also turning a 6 into a bluff seems a bit absurd

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
ae: what is the worst hand you think he value shoves for over pot tho?

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It's like 1.25 times the pot; it's probabyl the standard as a bluff or for value on the end here, I can't imagine why it wouldn't be... worst hand? I dont' know, 8 of herats. But really I can't see why he can't be shoving smaller hearts as either a two-way bet where he thinks you'll fold say Ax7h sometime, and call with AQ no heart sometime..

and yea, turing a 6 into a bluff seems weird here, but i've done stranger and i can't imagine that this guy isn't capable of it, even if it is such a miniscule % of the time

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

Turning a 6 into a bluff here sucks, and no I don't agree at all that he's pushing anything worse than Qh here for value, and in that case, I would think its "okay" as long as it isn't QJhh, still not great, but, "okay".

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turning a 6 into a bluff here sucks, and no I don't agree at all that he's pushing anything worse than Qh here for value, and in that case, I would think its "okay" as long as it isn't QJhh, still not great, but, "okay".

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Agree.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turning a 6 into a bluff here sucks, and no I don't agree at all that he's pushing anything worse than Qh here for value, and in that case, I would think its "okay" as long as it isn't QJhh, still not great, but, "okay".

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If there is even a remote possibility of him getting looked up light here, how is the Jh and the 9h not value bets?

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

bec he's more likely to get looked up and lose, duh

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

this looks like fives full hoping you have a big ace with a heart.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

I dont like the call and I like value betting the Jh from villain. Not that cts is gonna call that often, but I think u are ahead sooo often here, ur basically freerolling on him making a hero call (which obv cts does)

-Mike

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

cts,

if he floats the flop with any two cards he can have a gigantic range. as for the river, most players are betting the Jh. im not saying that you calls are nessecarily bad, but in HU battles I think we both know that people show up with all types of hands in all types of situations.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

Hm. This seems like a really thin call. I don't think he ever shoves worse for value, so we have to see what hands he is going to call the flop with and bluff later. he could have some weird straight draw i guess, or a worse Ace that he now is turning into a bluff. I don't know, on this one it seems we are trying to scrape together hands that we could talk ourselves into a call. I think a call here is really really thin without a long history with the villain.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

i think you're well behind on the turn there isnt much value in his play if you follow the action w/ out a hand.. he knows you're capable of shoving a lot of hands here

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

cts gave him some credit in the OP, I'm sure he can valuebet hearts 88+

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

i fold it's def possible he puts you on some flush too

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

Anyone like donking the river allin? 15k? 10k? Not sure if I do but something to think about.

-Mike

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

it really comes down whether u think he can have air on the turn, which even if he could seems like it would be like 15% of the time(78, 47, 97, 89 off i guess if he is crazy as u say he folds none of the insides on flop) and if he knows u like to make big calls he could def shove the upper half heart range.

right after writing this im almost talking myself into this possibly being a call. if u think the inside straight draws are in his range and he would never shove any of those if he had 1 heart in there, you can call this. but i still think its a fold, just sooo many hands he can have

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cts gave him some credit in the OP, I'm sure he can valuebet hearts 88+

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yah durrr is def capable of this, for sure

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

so wait, hes ace18?

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

I think this hand deserves more discussion. My basic thoughts are that if villian is any good, he's bluffing here quite a bit. In order to bluff here quite a bit, he has to shove here fairly thin on the end. I do understand why people think that Qh and sometimes Jh are the worst hands this guy can bet/shove for value (let's just assume they're the same, not taking into account too much meta of 'he'll read just less than a shove strong, or just less than a shove weak, etc' because without history or leveling knowledge I don't think we can really know too much info about that, and a shove is barely over a psb), since villian would now be looking at cts check-calling the Jh or 8h or whatever on the end.

I just feel like if villian shoves X amount of times on the end, he won't have a made hand enough for X to be for value enough. In order to compensate for that, shouldn't he add hands that are for value the MAJORITY of the time, even if they sometimes get called by a better made hand?

Assuming he's thinking (I dunno, gonna go out on a limb since it's 200-400), doesn't he know that cts is capable of hero calls, that he should be read as possibly floating A-high flops, that cts would expect him to check most bare one-decent-sized heart floats on the turn, that cts expects him to raise most strong made hands on the flop on a draw heavy board, that some % of the time he will raise heart draws on the flop, that the times he doesn't raise heart draws on the flop they'll often be small and won't be able to value bet the river- so much so that his line looks contradictory to cts, and therefore bluffy.

Because of this, why can't he shove the eight of hearts? Surely some % of time cts has AoXh where the X is some random small card that is a flush; therefore I'd say that there's a spectrum, and certainly the 2h isn't a shove if we're villian but why isn't the 9h?

Don't we have to value bet (even if it's only USUALLY for value, or we sometimes get snapped a better hand- or a boat or something for that matter) wider if we're going to bluff frequently, and if our line looks that weak?

Please, I want to be yelled at and corrected, or at least reprimanded, for my incorrect thoughts in this post.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

At first glance the shove on the river seems like he's repping a house... but since its 200/400 I'm guessing this could be a bluff a good amount of the time. However, lets look at the hands that beats us that COULD play the same way.

55, 66, 56s, AT, Ak, Axh, 7o8h, etc etc..

I just dont see how calling here vs that range is profitable.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

calling vs the range of hands that beats us isn't profitable? ya dont say?

try and fit some of those hands into the action. you think he chooses not to reraise AK preflop? or bets AT on the turn and then shoves the river? ???

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
calling vs the range of hands that beats us isn't profitable? ya dont say?

try and fit some of those hands into the action. you think he chooses not to reraise AK preflop? or bets AT on the turn and then shoves the river? ???

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right AT doesnt make sense, but is it mandetory to reraise AK preflop? I'm not a HSNL player but I was just wondering what you're expecting to see him have when you called the shove on the river. 78o?

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

cts address my post plz

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
so wait, hes ace18?

[/ QUOTE ]

I could have swore durrr was logged on the same time as ace18 last night, I don't believe they were at the same table, but I don't remember for sure

durrr was sitting solo at a 2/4 table, sitting out at a 6handed game, and ace was crushing 3 2/4 games

looking at highstakesdb, durrr didn't play so far this month or is between -33k and +15k

he lost some at PLO and Ace18 didn't play any PLO

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

not sure what what i'd do but this is def a great river for a triple barrel.

i think the most important thing is how villian views you, have you been calling pretty thin?

often times if i float a flop like this and then get looked up on turn i'll tell myself to shut down, then a third heart falls on the river and i just can't help but pulling the trigger.

i remember a very similar hand i played (neon was at the table with me at commerce) just like this but i was the villian and i was 100% not going to fire again until the 4th heart hit the river and i was like well [censored] it now i have to bet.

i got looked up by a [censored] two pair no flush.

i def dont think calling this river is spewy and just depends on whether villian is good enough to realize how profitable a bluff will be in this spot.

also depends on whether he views you as calling too much.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

CTS, I think your logic looks good.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

imo you have set yourself up for this problem, you haven't represented anything, and so you have no idea what he is responding to.

whether this is 200/400 or 0.02/0.04, it is very hard to apply a defined enough hand range when the betting action has been so vague (i.e. not a single 2-bet postflop).

given the easily floatable flop, he could have pretty much any two cards, so on that basis i'd call getting a bit worse than 2:1.

this reminds me of a hand when someone check-calls down a hand and hopes they have the opponent beat.

personally i think leading or check-raising the turn is essential, you have a massively strong hand given his view of your hand range as you've just made a standard raise out of the SB, and so you have to get more action before the river.

edit: think that sounds a bit harsh given how sick good you are, but seeing this hand i had to post as i think it's a badly played hand.

edit2: i was still thinking about this hand having left my laptop and was thinking this:

his hand range is effectively infinite, what is to stop him having 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], floated on the flop, saw you check on the turn so tried to take it away from you, then saw you check on the river and thought you could easily have A with no heart kicker and so push. Flip side he could easily have 55, hoping to raise you on the turn. Similarly he could have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], floating the flop, assuming you dont have the A by your turn check, so hoping to take it down then (it is wiser to bluff here than take a free card imo given your check), and then hitting on the river.

so yeah, i think applying hand ranges as played is pretty futile, instead I'd look to play the turn differently, again applying hand range is very hard if he gets his stack in then, but against a tricky opponent it always will be, but at least this way you are making him think 'should i fold my A9h or push to his check-raise on the turn', making him make a decision based on his uncertainty over your hand range rather than the other way round, and imo this is always the preferred option.

sorry for this possibly inane post, this has interested me.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

i like the calldown.

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
have a 6 turned into a bluff.



[/ QUOTE ]

Easily the worst fad on 2p2 at present. "And it isn't even close".

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
have a 6 turned into a bluff.



[/ QUOTE ]

Easily the worst fad on 2p2 at present. "And it isn't even close".

[/ QUOTE ]

The 6 would be betting for value obv, merging his range!

Re: am i just playing terribly lately?
 

[ QUOTE ]
imo you have set yourself up for this problem, you haven't represented anything, and so you have no idea what he is responding to.

whether this is 200/400 or 0.02/0.04, it is very hard to apply a defined enough hand range when the betting action has been so vague (i.e. not a single 2-bet postflop).

given the easily floatable flop, he could have pretty much any two cards, so on that basis i'd call getting a bit worse than 2:1.

this reminds me of a hand when someone check-calls down a hand and hopes they have the opponent beat.

personally i think leading or check-raising the turn is essential, you have a massively strong hand given his view of your hand range as you've just made a standard raise out of the SB, and so you have to get more action before the river.

edit: think that sounds a bit harsh given how sick good you are, but seeing this hand i had to post as i think it's a badly played hand.

edit2: i was still thinking about this hand having left my laptop and was thinking this:

his hand range is effectively infinite, what is to stop him having 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], floated on the flop, saw you check on the turn so tried to take it away from you, then saw you check on the river and thought you could easily have A with no heart kicker and so push. Flip side he could easily have 55, hoping to raise you on the turn. Similarly he could have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], floating the flop, assuming you dont have the A by your turn check, so hoping to take it down then (it is wiser to bluff here than take a free card imo given your check), and then hitting on the river.

so yeah, i think applying hand ranges as played is pretty futile, instead I'd look to play the turn differently, again applying hand range is very hard if he gets his stack in then, but against a tricky opponent it always will be, but at least this way you are making him think 'should i fold my A9h or push to his check-raise on the turn', making him make a decision based on his uncertainty over your hand range rather than the other way round, and imo this is always the preferred option.

sorry for this possibly inane post, this has interested me.

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