Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

This is what I think anyway.

Calling ranges seem to have gone way down and many times there are 300/600 blinds with 8 players left= crapshoot.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

i agree, i think i am moving to pokerstars. gonna lose my extras but oh well.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

I still haven't played since the changes but the reasons that you list seem like they would impact ROI much more than variance. Are you suggesting that ROI will be lower which will lead to worse downswings?

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

I don't think it increases variance that much. I have never seen the blinds at 300/600 with 8 people. It's important to adapt to the new structure. Can you explain further why it would increase variance?

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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i agree, i think i am moving to pokerstars. gonna lose my extras but oh well.

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The slow $11s from my sample of nine tourneys seem to be utterly simple. My longest one was only 67 mins and second longest was 62 mins so they are still going to be quicker and easier than stars.

Lori

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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Can you explain further why it would increase variance?

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It doesn't. But it might increase your downswings and RoR. The reason is that the shorter structure will almost certainly decrease your ROI.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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This is what I think anyway.

Calling ranges seem to have gone way down and many times there are 300/600 blinds with 8 players left= crapshoot.

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this is not a problem if you have good ring play. shoving is not an option anymore, bet 2/3 the pot consistently! they call with 2nd pair. it's ridiculous. they never believe ur 800t raise when the blinds are 100t.

fold early on to the dreaded min raise! ak isn't that good.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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i agree, i think i am moving to pokerstars. gonna lose my extras but oh well.

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It's almost the same structure, but at PS you get less starting chips (1500).

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

If you finish 1/2/3 x/y/z % in both turbos and regulars, your swings will be the same in each.

The only way the OP would make sense is if he is arguing ROI would be lower (which is most likely correct).

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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i agree, i think i am moving to pokerstars. gonna lose my extras but oh well.

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It's almost the same structure, but at PS you get less starting chips (1500).

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haha! Don't like new friends? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

No, there are enough sharks trying to earn VPPs as it is over there. Why do you think durron, bluefeet, HesseJam are jumping ship? They're smarter than me, that's why.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

The reason that calling ranges have widened is because most players have not made the adjustment of xBB raise as it relates to starting stack sizes.

Thus, a 3x BB raise in level 2 equates to 180 chips. Inconsequential to the stack sizes at that point, thus more callers.

"McFloatingRaise" combats this and will be effective for some time until good players adjust.

Simply put, raise 6x BB in early levels in position, lower to 5x as the blinds increase, 4x in mid-game etc. as the stack sizes dictate (or your own personal variation).

Think in terms of % of x player stack instead of BBs at this point and you will be ahead of the game (for a while).

Bonus. You'll have a lot more chips than most and there will be fewer players at the table when you do reach 3x BB "push any two".

Just MHO. But keep it to yourself. It's a secret.

SlackerMcFloatingBB

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

6BB?

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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6BB?

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Perfect example! Oh My God! Raise 6x BB? Are you nuts???

Regular 800 or 1000 chippers freak at the humongous bet you just made and fold or do something other than play correctly. The percentages are the same, but the bet looks ginormous.

Figure it out.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

I play $60 PS 1500 chippers. I would be the only player raising 6BB standard on that site. Not saying it's wrong, but definitely worth a '?'. Why throw so much out there to win so little?

Unless you're just messing around and I fell into the trap. Bad suzzer. Bad.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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Bonus. You'll have a lot more chips than most and there will be fewer players at the table when you do reach 3x BB "push any two".

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How? There aren't enough opportunities early to get chips. At 200/400, and 300/600 things are just crazy.

SlackerMcFloatingBB

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Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

Suzzer bad, but not for this reason. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I was talking about the Speed tourneys on Party. Disaster lurks doing this on Stars and one shouldn't try this at home w/out a net or a bankroll.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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No, there are enough sharks trying to earn VPPs as it is over there. Why do you think durron, bluefeet, HesseJam are jumping ship? They're smarter than me, that's why.

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just joking around...relax. your post had a tone of desperate pleading to it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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No, there are enough sharks trying to earn VPPs as it is over there. Why do you think durron, bluefeet, HesseJam are jumping ship? They're smarter than me, that's why.

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just joking around...relax. your post had a tone of desperate pleading to it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Not really. Here does this help? - [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

I'm running really well at the speed $11s (80% ROI). While I know this can't continue forever, it seems the fish haven't made the adjustment and it can be very profitable.

I've been utterly amazed at the number of 3 or 4-way allins, pushing with bottom pair, etc. The other factor which I think can positively impact ROI is heads-up being more deep stacked, even at the speed tourneys.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

Did they change the payout structure? (rhetorical)

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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If there were no variance, there would be no fish.

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I feel the same way about the normal ones. They seem easy. The turbos are interesting but not that difficult.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

Yes, ROI will be lower.

$/H may be higher but there is NO way ROI will be higher in the speeds.

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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Did they change the payout structure? (rhetorical)

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How do you answer a rhetorical question?


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

You don't! Unless you're suzzer, in which case a sexual inuendo is probably involved.

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Did they change the payout structure? (rhetorical)

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How do you answer a rhetorical question?


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

For it's worth, I think the expectable ROI in the speeds is lower than in the old structure for two reasons.
1: We have less hands to outplay the bad players and have to push small edges very soon.
2: Most of us seem to concentrate on the speeds, thus the rate of decent players is higher than before, and there are less players left who pay us of with draws, 2nd pair, etc.

But the loss of ROI is somewhat compensated by the increased number of tournaments one can play. While 5-tabling continously for 5 hours one can get through 50 tournaments instead of 35. So you will have the same $$/h if your ROI drops to 70% of your ROI in the old structure. Since you have to play more tourneys your variance will increase.
I.e. If a player with a ROI of 20% at the 11s in the old days and a SD/game of $20 played 200 tourneys he had an EV of $440 and a SD of $283. Now he can play 285 speedtourneys in the same time and if his ROI drops to 14% he will still have an EV of $440, but his SD will be $338, or 19% higher.

I'm not quite sure yet how much drop of ROI we can expect, but mine went down the drain this week. But it might as well just be variance [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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Bonus. You'll have a lot more chips than most and there will be fewer players at the table when you do reach 3x BB "push any two".

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How? There aren't enough opportunities early to get chips. At 200/400, and 300/600 things are just crazy.


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Because you are probably the only one picking up the blinds and/or getting called when you raise correctly in position with hands that you should play.

All others are folding PF for a period of time. You figure out the timing. Good luck. FloaterMcSlack

Re: Prediction: Swings will be crazy at the speeds
 

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i agree, i think i am moving to pokerstars. gonna lose my extras but oh well.

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It's almost the same structure, but at PS you get less starting chips (1500).

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Actually they're very different, the blinds hit 200-400 at level 5 in the Party speeds, when the Stars turbos are at 75-150.