Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Reads:I have only been at the table for 2 rotations, but both times I was in the BB I played a hand with villain. In previous 2 hands, he beat me both times when I first bet the flop with Q8 (got a free look at the flop) on QJJ board and then check-called the river, he showed J9 and won. Second hand, he called me down when my K5 (free look from big blind) got outkicked on a K369Q by his K8.

From the two hands I've seen him beat me with, he's seemed like a good player. However, I also saw him bet into a dry side pot with king high on the turn. Other than that he seems loose-passive.



Hand:One EP limper, I raise to 8 with

Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Button, both blinds and the early position limper call.

5 players ($40) to the flop:

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB (villain), BB and EP check.


I bet, I don't see any reason why I shouldn't, but critique on all streets is welcome.

Button calls. Villain I discussed earlier in the SB now raises and the BB and EP fold.

Should I have now:

a) folded, it's a scary flop and he might have two pair or a set

b) called and looked for a turn that doesn't fill a straight or a flush and try to make him pay if he's drawing

or c) three bet my overpair?


Results to come.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

I'd probably just call it down from here. He could be raising a better hand, but could also be raising with a pair and a flush or strait draw...I would (but usually in position, not from SB). Depends on the turn if I stay to river or what. Even if a draw comes in, it is probably a good card for your hand and gives you more outs to the best hand.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Folding would be terrible.

The question is if you raise now or do you wait for a the turn (assuming a horrible card doesn't fall). I lean in this situation to raise now because you lose a bet if a card falls on the turn that villian doesn't like (and I can see a ton of these such as 9, T, 6, spade, A, K...) and he just checks. If the board wasn't so coordinated I'd be more likely to wait.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Lots of beatable hands are possible there. I would 3-bet, and call down if it's 4-bet. You'll also be making the button pay more.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

OK.

I 3-bet, the SB 4-bet (by now I am pretty sure I'm beat facing a check-raise and a 4 bet, but I have to call.) The button called all bets. 3 to the turn, $88 in the pot:

The river is the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Therefore the board is: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB leads out.

Fold, call, or raise?

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

That doesn't improve your hand (unless your opponent has exactly 98). You're getting 10:1, you're unlikely to improve on the river, and you're likely facing at least one big bet. Button may still draw out even if you're ahead of SB.

Seems like an easy fold to me, assuming your read is that you're beat here more often then you have odds to call to showdown.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

I'm getting 12:1 not 10:1 if it makes a difference

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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I'm getting 12:1 not 10:1 if it makes a difference

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Right. These situations seem to me to be pretty read dependent. If your opponent is somebody who you feel overplays hands (like say A9 in this situation) I'd call down. Against unknowns I think I'd fold. I don't want to pay at least 2 BB to see showdown, especially when you've got a 3rd player hanging around.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Is there any value in the fact that we know the button is basically playing with his cards turned face up and has a draw?

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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Is there any value in the fact that we know the button is basically playing with his cards turned face up and has a draw?

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Sure, but we don't really know what draw. Or if he's slow playing something else. But if you think you're ahead of the better 20% of the time, and the draw (whatever it is) comes in 20% of the time its equivalent to you winning the pot only 16% of the time. I'm just saying in a marginal situation like this, it shifts you along the action spectrum towards a fold and away from a call.

What do you do if a Spade or straight card come on the river and SB bets? Do you call knowing button might raise? Too many things say you should fold here I think.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

I agree that I should have folded the turn. I stubbornly called (as did the button), and also called a brick river (button then folded) and he showed 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] .

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that I should have folded the turn. I stubbornly called (as did the button), and also called a brick river (button then folded) and he showed 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] .

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is terrible. Pot is big and you have an overpair.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

lol niediam you are super nitty sometimes and then super spewy other times!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] kinda like me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Folding the turn sucks, the guy had 97, if he has 98 now he's drawing to 4 outs.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the turn sucks, the guy had 97, if he has 98 now he's drawing to 4 outs.

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What are his likely hands? Is there's anything besides 98 that we're beating or have a reasonable draw against? Just because there's one possible hand we're ahead of doesn't mean we should continue.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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Folding the turn sucks, the guy had 97, if he has 98 now he's drawing to 4 outs.

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What are his likely hands? Is there's anything besides 98 that we're beating or have a reasonable draw against? Just because there's one possible hand we're ahead of doesn't mean we should continue.

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TT, T9, T8, 66, 86, 98, 9x spades, two big spades... and there there are of course the pair + gutshot draws, flush draw + gutshot draws, we are almost getting the odds to draw to a boat the times that he flopped a straight.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Call, raise blank on turn.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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Folding the turn sucks, the guy had 97, if he has 98 now he's drawing to 4 outs.

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What are his likely hands? Is there's anything besides 98 that we're beating or have a reasonable draw against? Just because there's one possible hand we're ahead of doesn't mean we should continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT, T9, T8, 66, 86, 98, 9x spades, two big spades... and there there are of course the pair + gutshot draws, flush draw + gutshot draws, we are almost getting the odds to draw to a boat the times that he flopped a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe thats a realistic view of likely hands in a 4-8 live game where the SB capped the flop. However, if you think it is then by all means play accordingly. OP said that he was very confident he was beat when it got capped back to him on the flop. I'm basing my actions on that read.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Folding the turn sucks, the guy had 97, if he has 98 now he's drawing to 4 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are his likely hands? Is there's anything besides 98 that we're beating or have a reasonable draw against? Just because there's one possible hand we're ahead of doesn't mean we should continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT, T9, T8, 66, 86, 98, 9x spades, two big spades... and there there are of course the pair + gutshot draws, flush draw + gutshot draws, we are almost getting the odds to draw to a boat the times that he flopped a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe thats a realistic view of likely hands in a 4-8 live game where the SB capped the flop. However, if you think it is then by all means play accordingly. OP said that he was very confident he was beat when it got capped back to him on the flop. I'm basing my actions on that read.

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Shrug, they are just possibilities. I'm not saying that we are not often (and probably usually) beat but we only have win something like 20% of the time to make calling down correct.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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I'm not saying that we are not often (and probably usually) beat but we only have win something like 20% of the time to make calling down correct.

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Ah ha! There's our problem. I interpreted OPs comment to mean that he believes he isn't going to win 20% of the time.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

Since you have a position on a draw-heavy board, I don't think it is completely horrible to check behind on the flop and consider raising the turn on a blank, depending on your reads and the action in front of you.

A check is better if you have aces or kings because you are in less danger of giving a free card to someone with an overcard, but even with queens, I don't think that it is an option that you should automatically dismiss. I'm not saying that you should check behind or that I would (I do it some of the time, but not all of the time, based on my opponents), but it should be on the table.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

I think Niediam's hand range is fine, plus throw in JJ.

I think folding the turn was not good. There are too many hands that you beat versus hands that beat you, given the pot size and the probable overcaller. I'm seeing this one to the end.

This is 4/8, after all.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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I think Niediam's hand range is fine,


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In any 3/6 or 4/8 game I've played in (AC/Foxwoods) 50% of players won't cap ever, even with the nuts on the flop, and I'd say at least 75-80% wouldn't cap without at the very least two pair (and many wouldn't cap there either). I don't think his hand range represents the typical player.

I don't know why we ask for reads from OPs when we generally ignore them. If his read is that he's very likely beat, he doesn't have the odds to call. Especially not with a third person who very likely has a strong draw (at least 8 outs) in the hand. We're in horrible position, are possibly drawing dead, likely have only 2 outs, if we're lucky have 4 outs, and if we're insanely lucky we're ahead but have to dodge a crapload of cards on the river.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

call turn and spike a Q on the river

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

I think you played the hand pretty well. Not much else to say

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I think Niediam's hand range is fine,


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I don't know why we ask for reads from OPs when we generally ignore them.

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He was there for two orbits. How good are your reads after 20 hands? This is a recipe for weak/tight, imho.

Re: Tough spot with QQ. 4-8 Live
 

The villian's check on the flop means he's not scared of giving a free card, either because he already likes his hand or because he himself is drawing to something. When he hits you with a c/r, and follows up with the 4-bet, you are behind a large portion of the time on this board.

The turn doesn't help you much, and even if it pulls you ahead of the button it may have put you behind the caller. You've got to dodge a huge number of cards to stay in your already precarious position. Even a red Ace or King wrecks your showdown value. You've got only 2 outs.

Without reads this is a fold on the turn for me.