Transformers...
 

...opens Tuesday. Considering it will probably be the biggest movie of the summer, I expected to see some opening weekend/opening day/total B.O props by now. Am I just overlooking them?

Re: Transformers...
 

LOL. This won't come close to Spidey.

But the answer to your question is nope. Pinnacle Sports guy who always made Movie Opening Weekend lines left/quit/fired or something a few months ago and since then no sites really offer these since all they did was follow Pinny. Bodog was the last site to offer Movie props with Spidey 3 and they were free money.

Email Bodog and ask for something, they are the only site who might give us something.

-Brendan

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
LOL. This won't come close to Spidey.

But the answer to your question is nope. Pinnacle Sports guy who always made Movie Opening Weekend lines left/quit/fired or something a few months ago and since then no sites really offer these since all they did was follow Pinny. Bodog was the last site to offer Movie props with Spidey 3 and they were free money.

Email Bodog and ask for something, they are the only site who might give us something.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

wsex no longer does movie opening props?

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOL. This won't come close to Spidey.

But the answer to your question is nope. Pinnacle Sports guy who always made Movie Opening Weekend lines left/quit/fired or something a few months ago and since then no sites really offer these since all they did was follow Pinny. Bodog was the last site to offer Movie props with Spidey 3 and they were free money.

Email Bodog and ask for something, they are the only site who might give us something.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

wsex no longer does movie opening props?

[/ QUOTE ]

i haven't seen any non american idol/presidential props up on wsex in at least 2 months

Re: Transformers...
 

Bodog has a line up. Over under is 146.5 million for the week. Over is -125 under -115. 80 million over under for opening weekend. Over is -110 under -130.

The only projection I found was a total Box Office of 330 million at Fantasy Moguls. I don't know how to properly adjust this to produce an opening week/weekend projection for betting purposes and would obviously like to hear others thoughts.

Re: Transformers...
 

I don't bet movies, but almost 150 million? really? this sure looks like a movie that nobody will see more than once.

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't bet movies, but almost 150 million? really? this sure looks like a movie that nobody will see more than once.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like the under because it looks like a mess in special effects. many would call it brilliant, i call it a mess.

also, i think people are travelling this week.

Re: Transformers...
 

i think people are overestimating the popularity of the transformers franchise

most people i talk to have never heard of it, and most who have didn't even know a movie was coming out

i usually deal with people in the 18-25 year old range too

and now they're already starting production on the sequel, i could see a disaster for paramount/dreamworks on this

Re: Transformers...
 

The under 80 is now at -300 and under 146.5 is at -170. I still haven't seen any projections for the first week and I won't make a bet until I see some. The line moves would indicate that there was probably a lot of value in the under on the initial line, however.

Re: Transformers...
 

Oh yeah there was a lot of value in that under $80 Mill for the weekend. probably worthing hitting up to -500 IMO. Most projections have it doing around $65 Mill for the weekend on the high end. That is why this line has been banged like a $2 whorze.

-Brendan

Re: Transformers...
 

i had a choice on both unders when the prices were much better. i can't believe how far the line has moved. too bad there are these minimums, or we could be taking nice scores with freeroll hedges.

Re: Transformers...
 

8.8 on the Monday screenings.
27.4 Tuesday..

Re: Transformers...
 

The weekend numbers should come in around $66 Million. So

8.8 + 27.4 + 66= 102.2

I don't see it doing $44 Mill for today and tomorrow so I think the under on the whole week is good too.

-Brendan

Re: Transformers...
 

27.9m for Wed.

8.8 + 27.4 + 27.9 + 66 = 130.1

Thursday should fall off quite a bit from the Holiday influenced totals of Tues and Wed right?

Where are you getting 66m estimate for the weekend?

Re: Transformers...
 

Centris, that was my personal estimate, but I figured it would drop about $4 Mill on the 4th and since it went up there goes my weekend estimate. I think it will do closer to $72 Mill for the weekend and I think it will probably go over for the 6 day total now but stay under for the weekend total.

-Brendan

Re: Transformers...
 

80.9M going into today.

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it will probably go over for the 6 day total now but stay under for the weekend total.


[/ QUOTE ]


uggghhh. i almost did this one instead.

sigh

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
80.9M going into today.

[/ QUOTE ]

how can it not go over?

Re: Transformers...
 

I didn't bet on the 6 day but if I remember correctly the Monday box will not count for the bet so you can take about 8.5 mil. off the total giving you 72.5 going into the weekend.

Re: Transformers...
 

22.3m for Friday

So we are looking really good for the under for the weekend, if it was even in question. The above link speculates:

[ QUOTE ]
It will likely have a fairly standard multiplier, somewhere between 2.7 to 2.8, which is an impressive $61.5 million in the three-day weekend. That's a total of $146.4 million since Monday's evening showings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which would mean the under for the week might come close too.

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
22.3m for Friday



[ QUOTE ]
. That's a total of $146.4 million since Monday's evening showings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which would mean the under for the week might come close too.

[/ QUOTE ]

this just goes to show you how some entertaiment oddsmakers know their stuff. hard to get too many opportunities by the good ones.

Re: Transformers...
 

67.6M weekend so far.

edit: It looks like a massive Saturday is going to make this go over/over. Not good for most here, I assume.

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
67.6M weekend so far.

edit: It looks like a massive Saturday is going to make this go over/over. Not good for most here, I assume.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure the over/over comment? This is a mortal lock for under $80 Mill on the weekend. And will be within a couple mill of the week long bet. That looks to be over but again the weekend bet is a winner. This won't break $70 on the weekend.

-Brendan

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
67.6M weekend so far.

edit: It looks like a massive Saturday is going to make this go over/over. Not good for most here, I assume.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure the over/over comment? This is a mortal lock for under $80 Mill on the weekend. And will be within a couple mill of the week long bet. That looks to be over but again the weekend bet is a winner. This won't break $70 on the weekend.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks to me like he thought the $67.6M figure did not include Sunday. Weekend under is definitely a winner.

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think people are overestimating the popularity of the transformers franchise

most people i talk to have never heard of it, and most who have didn't even know a movie was coming out

i usually deal with people in the 18-25 year old range too

and now they're already starting production on the sequel, i could see a disaster for paramount/dreamworks on this

[/ QUOTE ]

whoops completely wrong

totally misjudged haha

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
67.6M weekend so far.

edit: It looks like a massive Saturday is going to make this go over/over. Not good for most here, I assume.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure the over/over comment? This is a mortal lock for under $80 Mill on the weekend. And will be within a couple mill of the week long bet. That looks to be over but again the weekend bet is a winner. This won't break $70 on the weekend.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks to me like he thought the $67.6M figure did not include Sunday. Weekend under is definitely a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

weekly under a winner too.

i thought i had lost it, but just saw a win at bodog.

woot

Re: Transformers...
 

Bodog misgraded that if they graded it as an under. But I won't point it out to them. The 8.8 Mill it made with the Monday 8PM showings counted towards a Monday total and not a Tuesday total which would have counted towards the overall week bet.

But with that 8.8 removed it still went over by $104,387 for the Tues-Sun. But I love free money from Bodog!

-Brendan

Re: Transformers...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog misgraded that if they graded it as an under. But I won't point it out to them. The 8.8 Mill it made with the Monday 8PM showings counted towards a Monday total and not a Tuesday total which would have counted towards the overall week bet.

But with that 8.8 removed it still went over by $104,387 for the Tues-Sun. But I love free money from Bodog!

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

would bodog actually scoop our cash after this error?