Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Live 20/40 playing much like a 2/4 online game, yes this belongs here.

Loose passive lady who plays 80% of her hands, bets with the best/checks the rest, type limps UTG.

2 folds to me and I raise the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The button, who is the fiance' of a OK pro, can be over aggressive, never seen two broadway cards she didnt like, 3-bets. She thinks I play too loose and aggro preflop, but gives me respect postflop.

The BB who never folded a BB nor too many flops in his life, calls,

UTG calls, I cap, all call.

FLOP (16.5SBs): J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB and UTG check, I bet, button raises, BB and UTG call 2 cold. What is your plan and why?

I am taking off to Vegas tomorrow but will get back to this tomorrow night. Be as thorough in your response as possible as why you are going to do what you are doing and what you plan is on the turn.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I call and re-evaluate on the turn depending on what comes up, and how the betting goes. I can't really be more thorough without more information on the rest of the hand. If it comes something like 2c 3c then I just call down, unless there is more raising, the flop can't really get more dangerous than that when holding aces.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

This is pretty much as bad as a flop for our hand as there is, so at this point I'm not too excited about my hand, however, I'm not ready to give up yet as I still might have the best hand. I'd call the flop-raise and if checked to, lead a safe turn, and if raised again by the button I'd fold, as I think it's unlikely the button would raise your lead twice w/ a worse hand, unless she's the type of player who thinks AJ is the nuts here, then I'd probably call down depending on what UTG and BB does of course.

I'd check-fold any heart or 4-card straight turn.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I'll call here and reevaluate on the turn. Our hand is likely best right now, but no one will make a TOP mistake if we threebet. If the turn comes good for our hand, I'll lead if checked to. Also if I lead the turn, I don't think I'm folding to a button raise. The pot's big and I think our equity may still dictate a call down against an aggressive player with a chance to face players who are probably drawing with two cold.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

i would call and wait for a safe turn before i give any more action.

this is sort of a guesstimate, but a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Qx would have more equity in this spot than our two black aces(despite it being the best hand). of course if the turn comes a 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or some such blank, that would swing things dramatically into our favor. so i would wait for the turn.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

yeah i definitely wait as well, i mite fold for 2 bets back on the turn otherwise id cr the field. I dont think a freecard is a concern. Buttons raise looks like protection to thin the field so hes not gonna play many hands this way that will take a freecard (or want to give one), the bare Ah will want people in and a weak pair plus good fd shouldnt play this way either and probably bets the turn if they raised the flop with one of those kinda hands. Ah and id 3bet obviously.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I don't think that we even have our fair share on that flop but I think the bet is fine because getting anyone to fold (a GS and many 5 or 6 out hands will not hang around on this flop) helps us out if we get a good turn card which would then make our equity much better. Now that no one folded and we got raised, I just call and see what the turn brings.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Is it wrong to just want to fold immediately?

Of course we can't do that, but it's sorely tempting...this is an absolutely awful flop for black aces vs. 3 opponents, even when two of them are pretty much ATC types.

My initial reaction is to call the flop raise & bet/fold a "safe" turn card, not that there are too many of those, unless of course that "safe" turn card is an ace (then bet/call, maybe bet/3bet/call if it's the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], check/call for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). From your read it seems unlikely that Button will raise again on the turn without a hand that beats your aces, assuming that you beat the other two anyway. If the turn is ugly, i.e. a non-A heart or another straight card, I can definitely see check/folding unless maybe it's the latter, Button bets, and the other two fold.

3-betting the flop just seems like spewage as, even if you're currently best, you get drawn out on often & never get rid of any opponents by doing so and Button could potentially cap for the free card. Folding immediately, as I said, is tempting but just weak.

Checking a safe turn card seems like a bad idea as Button will often take the free card with a hand that doesn't beat you but has outs to do so.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

3 bet the flop. since utg called she is likely drawing meaning button doesnt have you ruined (yet). she is horrible and laggy and he is not an okay pro he is horrid.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I'd check-fold any heart

I'll assume you mean any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] other than A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Clearly you can't fold getting 23:1. You have the best hand way more than 4.2% of the time here. That being said I don't raise simply because every additional bet at this point has negative equity. Nobody who called the initial 2 cold is folding.

On the turn, close to half the cards in the deck should make your decision easy - fold. But if a safe card hits, there's a reasonable chance you're still ahead, so I check and let the button hang herself. I'm not really afraid of her or the BB. UTG, while she may *always* bet (or raise) with the best, will deviate if she flopped the mortal nuts (if she holds Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and may even wait to raise until the river if enough stay in.

I'd be prepared to call one bet on both the turn and river if no flush card falls, and if nobody folds the turn for one bet and the river is a heart, if the button bets when checked to and everybody else folds, I might even be prepared to make a crying call getting about 17:1.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Grunch. On the turn, I lead at any non heart, non J789TJ card. I'm dreaming of a black 3, but probably won't get it.

I may be check/folding a lot of cards on the turn depending on the action.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Nice game

I certainly just call here, if we have the best hand we probably don't have a big edge here, even against 3 people.

My instinct is to lead a blank turn in hopes of being raised by the button(since I assume we're solidly ahead of her range if the turn blanks)

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Joe,

I'm in the "call the raise, see what the turn brings" camp. As everyone else has said, I'm REALLY not happy with this flop, but there is too much money in the pot to fold here for 1 more bet.

As I re-read the post, I'm wondering what the button has. If I were the button, I'm probably 3-betting AKs, AA-TT or 99. I'm wondering if she's flopped a set (JJ or 99), or has the big flush draw. I think in the end we are still ahead here, and it is much more likely she has the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]or the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. TT with the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would also be a big possibility. I also think the BB and UTG have absolutely fallen in love with their singular [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s and are praying for a heart on the turn.

The other thing here that I like is that I'm closing the action with the call. No-one behind me to re-raise?, we're calling 1 to the turn here easy.

Joe

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

That was easy boys, nice work, I called.

Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

Your action.... (add your thoughts to what you want to see happen and what your reaction is going to be given any result)

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
That was easy boys, nice work, I called.

Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

Your action....

[/ QUOTE ]

bet

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Well this just keeps getting worse. This is an ugly spot.

If you bet, and button raises, this is good in that it will punish BB and UTG to draw. No T or big heart (or maybe any heart) is folding here. Not ideal, but better than a flop raise.

If you bet, and button raises, this is bad because this means you're completely smoked or button is aggro with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or the like in her hand. Then you have to dodge any Q, T, 7, or heart the fishcakes are drawing to. So you're drawing to the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] when you might already be dead to a straight or flush, or you're still ahead and she's aggro on a draw.

At least cold-callers will make your river fold elementary when the draws hit.

If you bet, button raises, and gets two cold callers, you'll be getting ~19:1. I'd have to know the button to make my decision here.

Checking is horrible, since it's entirely possible button will free card here.

I think you have to bet, hope the button calls, and hope the river bricks. If the button raises, then I think you have to call - especially if you have coldcallers in front.

If either of the fishcakes c/r, then I fold.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

Your action....

[/ QUOTE ]

bet, hoping button will raise with her KQ.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sticking with bet/fold, but again that's on the assumption that button won't raise again with a hand that can't beat aces--your preflop cap said that you meant business, and even if she put you on AK then you're now holding TPTK & she should slow down with anything less. If either of the other players check/raises that should be a turbomuck given their descriptions.

If you do believe that button is capable of making the turn raise with a weaker hand and/or draw, then of course it's bet/call (assuming neither of the other players springs to life with a 3bet).

The key point is that we simply cannot check ever because of the probability that button will check through with outs against us.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I was just thinking that an offsuit king would be the most interesting card on the turn. Not exactly the safest card, but safe enough. I think you gotta bet here and call a raise from the button then re-evaluate on the river. Obviously fold to a threebet or raise from one of the other players.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Grunch turn.

I feel like I must bet this turn. I'm hoping to get raised by a worse hand to face the two checkers w/ 2 bets cold.

I think a c/r is too risky. If it were checked through, that would be disastrous.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

On the turn I would check and call one bet. Its very tough because I would want to showdown because this board is very coordinated however it is tough to extract value because the button is going to raise here with sorts of pair/combo draws we are ahead of and I want to get to the river cheap. One bet cheap.

My plan for the river would be to bet/fold a safe card like a 5. Check/fold hearts and maybe Check/call some other rivers that might suck like maybe a J.

BTW - Black hair/make up/thin, iPod, smoker, kinda cocky but nice enough? She doesn't play to well. If we are thinking of the same person I definitely think she would raise the turn again with a pair/heart combo. Then again I am a LAGTARD so everyone raises me...

Edit: Damn everyone wants to bet the turn! I don't get it...we either have a razor thin equity advantage or we are drawing super thin/dead. Do we really care if this gets checked through? Why? In general I think people are forgetting there are two players who called two OOP on the flop.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I say check fold. Looks to me like you're drawing thin, most likely dead.
fwiw I suck at poker.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I'm with you. I see all these posts about punishing draws and not giving the button a free card and I scratch my head.

Those are valid concerns when you're ahead, or have a reasonable expectation of being ahead more than half the time. On this board, with 3 opponents, I'd even agree with that if I thought we were ahead even 1/3 of the time. The K on the turn makes that highly unlikely. I seriously doubt we're ahead more than 20% of the time vs the range of hands our 3 opponents have played up to this point. I don't think there's 5-10% fold equity in betting (i'm happy if someone proves me wrong, though)

We have enough pot equity to call one bet here, but making that bet is negative marginal equity. We want to get to showdown cheaply, so we don't hate the free card. Plus, if we bet and the button raises, no draw folds, so betting doesn't add equity by knocking anyone out.

I check and call one bet.

Also, if we check and the button bets, we save a bet when one of the players in front of us decloaks with a big hand.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

If you check and the button bets and both opponents call, you can't fold. You'll be getting 15:1. Your hand is good more than 6.2% of the time.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Those are all pretty logical arguments Kurn. You sure you're not Vulcan?

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Why would we ever want to give a free card considering the nature of the board, the size of the pot, and the likelyhood that at least two of our opponents are drawing? Considering how big the pot is, we WANT to be raised by the button with some kind of combo pair/draw. Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with you. I see all these posts about punishing draws and not giving the button a free card and I scratch my head.

Those are valid concerns when you're ahead, or have a reasonable expectation of being ahead more than half the time. On this board, with 3 opponents, I'd even agree with that if I thought we were ahead even 1/3 of the time. The K on the turn makes that highly unlikely. I seriously doubt we're ahead more than 20% of the time vs the range of hands our 3 opponents have played up to this point. I don't think there's 5-10% fold equity in betting (i'm happy if someone proves me wrong, though)

[/ QUOTE ]

If we check, it checks through, and we end up losing on the river, we've lost money from an FTOPS standpoint--however many bets our opponents would've called on the turn multiplied by our current pot equity. If we bet and are called by one or more better hands, we neither lose nor gain if we'd planned on check/calling. If we bet and fold to another raise, we've lost nothing--again, because we're planning to call a bet if we check. Okay, some tiny fraction of a bet for the times we would've rivered the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and it gave us a winner, but that's pretty inconsequential.

The only times betting really costs us more than check/calling are when we either bet/call (and lose) or we bet and one of the limpers check/raises, where we would have folded had we checked it, button bet, and then the raise occurred--basically MUBS. I do not think that the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in any way affected how often we're ahead--putting Button on exactly KK seems pretty far-fetched given the description of the player.

This is why I'm so much in favor of bet/fold, again assuming that Button would not raise again on the turn with a hand that can't beat AA.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would we ever want to give a free card considering the nature of the board, the size of the pot, and the likelyhood that at least two of our opponents are drawing? Considering how big the pot is, we WANT to be raised by the button with some kind of combo pair/draw. Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

personally i think calling a raise here after our donk bet is a mistake.

i still like the donk however

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

The reason i chose c/f was i put the button on K J preflop. I also think that either the straight or the flush is already made.
fwiw, I still suck at poker

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

Not betting is only a bigger mistake than making a -EV bet if betting increases our equity. Our equity only increases if our bet makes a hand that can improve to beat us folds *or* if the amount additional money that will call the bet is greater than the odds against us winning. (i.e., we're ahead 1/3 of the time and we bet and get 3 callers.)

If what you're saying is that you're convinced we're ahead on the turn 1/3 of the time, I won't argue. If you're saying any opponent drawing to a single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that is not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will fold if we bet and the button raises, that's a thin assumption, but I accept the logic.

I just don't think the combined probability of those circumstances being true here is very likely.

I have, of course, been known to be wrong before. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would we ever want to give a free card considering the nature of the board, the size of the pot, and the likelyhood that at least two of our opponents are drawing? Considering how big the pot is, we WANT to be raised by the button with some kind of combo pair/draw. Even if the bet itself is -EV, I would guess that letting this turn get checked through is way more -EV. I think checking is a big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

personally i think calling a raise here after our donk bet is a mistake.

i still like the donk however

[/ QUOTE ]

So your comfertable folding getting about 20:1 against a LAG who has a chance to face people who are probably drawing with two bets cold?

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like I must bet this turn. I'm hoping to get raised by a worse hand to face the two checkers w/ 2 bets cold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt, given the player profiles, that you'd be raised on the turn by a lesser hand.

b

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]


If what you're saying is that you're convinced we're ahead on the turn 1/3 of the time, I won't argue.



[/ QUOTE ]

Given the description of button/others, I think we're ahead a fair amount of the time. Obviously less than 50% and I'd think more than 25%. Also even if we are behind, I think we are often drawing pretty live against two pair type hands. This will increase our equity in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]

If you're saying any opponent drawing to a single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that is not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will fold if we bet and the button raises, that's a thin assumption, but I accept the logic.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I have enough information to determine this with any degree of accuracy. I've certainly played against players who would fold any single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that isn't the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when faced with two bets cold in this spot. I've also played against players who would call with the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here.

So in summation, I have no idea.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

With the info about the players given, what types of hands is anyone putting these people on? This is a big hole in my game and i'm trying to work on it.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Joe,

I've looked at everyone elses replies, and I don't see how check/calling 1 bet here is horrible. Betting and folding to a raise is horrible. Check/calling 2 cold if the BB or UTG wakes up from a button bet is bad too.

If you get a bet from the button, regardless of the amount of callers, I'm calling 1 bet. Also, by calling that one bet, you have position and are closing the action again.

Its either bet/call 1 raise, or check/call 1 bet for me. I'm leaning towards checking.

Joe

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Let's review:

2 folds to me and I raise the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The button, who is the fiance' of a OK pro, can be over aggressive, never seen two broadway cards she didnt like, 3-bets. She thinks I play too loose and aggro preflop, but gives me respect postflop.

The BB who never folded a BB nor too many flops in his life, calls,

UTG calls, I cap, all call.

FLOP (16.5SBs): J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB and UTG check, I bet, button raises, BB and UTG call 2 cold.

That was easy boys, nice work, I called.

Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
__________________________________________________ ________________________________________________
BB checks, UTG checks and I bet.

There is too much of a chance that this will be checked through, I'm very likely ahead of 2 if not 3 of the hands and very likely to get 3 callers. The combination of these two statements move us into +EV land.

They all called.

River: (16.2BBs) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG checks.

Your action?

Please answer with hand ranges for all opponents. You have good amount of information after the turn and the river doesn't change much obviously.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Based on the way you described UTG & BB, their range could basically include any pair or any draw, as well as (at least in the case of UTG) a baby flush, straight, two pair, maybe even a set. It's also not outside the realm of the possible that either of them slowplayed the stone nuts all the way to the river, though very unlikely. You didn't say too much about their showdown range, which of course greatly affects whether or not you have a value bet on the river--I would imagine that UTG is calling a bet with jacks or better at least. Can't say for BB.

Button most likely has some piece of the board. AJ seems fairly likely; KJ would probably have put in another raise on the turn, as would a set. A hand like AK/KQ/AQ with a single heart is also possible. I'd imagine she makes the crying call with top pair (definitely with AK), and sometimes puts in another bet with AJ. QQ is also a possibility, not sure if she calls again with that though, as is TT (especially with the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), which probably isn't calling another bet.

So I really think it depends on how low you believe UTG & BB are willing to go on the crying call meter as to whether or not you have a value bet; I don't believe you really have one vs. Button's range here, especially since she's not closing the action. At least, that's the impression I get from your read.

Instinctively I want to bet again, but intellectually this looks more like a check/call 1 situation. Although I'm clearly betting if UTG/BB are often calling with 1 pair hands. I think that if you do bet & either of them check/raises then you should have a fairly easy, albeit painful, fold.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Ranges:

I can't put UTG on anything but a straight/flush draw. She seems like the type to donk OOP with strong pair/two pair/straight/flush type hands. Because she has just c/c all streets, she's gotta have a draw or weak made hand that we beat.

BB is more likely to have small pair type hands, but his range is probably about the same as UTG. Depending on how passive they are, they could also have two pair type hands. These must be discounted however. We were ahead of their ranges on the turn and the 4 of spades obviously doesn't change that.

The button's range is a bit more problematic. If she's a LAG, she probably doesn't have a set here, but she could have AA, QQ or TT. Depending on how LAGy she thinks we are preflop, she can have AK, KJ, KhQx, KT?, AJ, Ahx where x is a ten or higher. If she isn't as agro as I think, or if she tends to shut down on the big streets, she could have lots of stronger hands that beat us.

That range might be off, but the more I look at it, the more this looks like a bet to me. I think, given the turn action, we are actually ahead of everyone's range, and I think the pot size dictates a bet as we will be called by all kinds of second best hands.

Edit: If button is gonna bet with lots of second best hands or check behind with lots of hands we beat, I like checking a lot more. In this case, I think she's gonna tend to bet the best hand and check second best hands.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

In your previous post, you listed the UTG as "bts with the best, checks with the rest". You forgot to add it in the recap.

As for ranges:

BB: Really looks like a big draw that they didn't want to lay down (any T or any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).
UTG: Looks like a similar draw as BB, and he never got there too. If he did, you would have heard about it on the turn.
Button: I am a little worried, but I think we have the best hand. Either she has AQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],maybe even KK. But it is more like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Jx and she really didn't like the K on the turn.

Bet the river and see what happens. I might be inclined to call a raise, especially from the button. I won't be happy if UTG adds the raise though. The BB is definitely folding here (I think).

Joe