Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Too bad the props I see specify he and Chestnut have to start...maybe he will start for pride?

http://www.metro.co.uk/weird/article...p;in_page_id=2

Japan's former record-breaking hot dog eater has suffered a serious injury to his jaw.

Takeru "Tsunami" Kobayashi had been putting himself through rigorous training after losing his world record to American chomp-meister Joey Chestnut earlier this year.

The injury means he can only open his mouth to make a gap the size of a fingertip, and means it is unlikely that 29-year-old Kobayashi will compete in the July 4 Nathan's Famous hot dog eating event on New York's Coney Island, where he has won the title five years in a row.

In an entry on his myspace page, Kobayashi, described the injury as an "occupational hazard". Doctors diagnosed his condition as has jaw arthritis.

"I feel ashamed that I couldn't notice the alarm bells set off by my own body. But with the goal to win another title with a new record, I couldn't stop my training," he said. "I was continuing my training and bearing with the pain but finally I destroyed my jaw."

Last year Kobayashi broke the hot dog eating world record by eating 53 and a quarter hot dogs in 12 minutes.

But his record was broken three weeks ago by 22-year-old American Joey Chestnut, who toppled him with a stomach busting total of 59.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Too bad the props I see specify he and Chestnut have to start...maybe he will start for pride?


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I hope not. I've got my money on him. I bet he takes this year off and comes back next year to break the record.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

I just bet Chestnut.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Kobayashi, who has become a niche celebrity in Japan and the United States, had already halted his competitive eating activities for several months due to mourning after his mother's death earlier this year.

But he said he still wanted to go to the competition in New York.

"I want to be the pride of my mother," he said in the blog entry posted on Sunday.

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link

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

The Kobayashi vs Chestnut line is down now.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value. Chestnut is going to be able to coast to victory with minimal effort and won't be pressured in the closing seconds. I'd have to think his expected number of hot dogs eaten will be much lower now.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Propositions (Kobayashi and Chestnut must eat)
Will Takeru Kobayashi win? No -125

still up at Pinny how is this?

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Propositions (Kobayashi and Chestnut must eat)
Will Takeru Kobayashi win? No -125

still up at Pinny how is this?

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jesus, i would love to pound this right now. <<sobbing>>

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

in the process of pounding, up to -131 now.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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in the process of pounding, up to -131 now.

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nice, hope you overbet your roll because you're going to be able to arb the other side in a minute as pinny just pulled the line. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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in the process of pounding, up to -131 now.

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You are just wasting your time...

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Propositions (Kobayashi and Chestnut must eat)
Will Takeru Kobayashi win? No -125



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The OP even posted as such... any line that includes a "Kobayashi must eat / must start" condition has zero value...

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

overbet my roll, yes...seems to be a habit of mine lately.

It also says in the article that OP posted that Koba is still going to try and show up, so I don't see how this is zero value.

edit nm you're right:

"But he said he still wanted to go to the competition in New York."

I confused this to be a present tense observation but this is a description of his position of how he felt after his mother died...

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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in the process of pounding, up to -131 now.

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You are just wasting your time...

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Propositions (Kobayashi and Chestnut must eat)
Will Takeru Kobayashi win? No -125



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The OP even posted as such... any line that includes a "Kobayashi must eat / must start" condition has zero value...

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There is a non-zero chance that Kobayashi will compete. Even if the bet is cancelled 99% of the time, there is some value.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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"But he said he still wanted to go to the competition in New York."

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Hopefully just to watch and shake the winner's hand. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value. Chestnut is going to be able to coast to victory with minimal effort and won't be pressured in the closing seconds. I'd have to think his expected number of hot dogs eaten will be much lower now.

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Two points I'd like to make 1) performify is right 2) I did jump on the under 57.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value.

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I suppose it technically does, but since it contains the "Kobayashi and Chestnut must both start" clause, I think the EV is extremely low.

I'm not even sure it's better than just earning two weeks of interest.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

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It's not amazing value, just a little value. It's pretty much zero risk and if you have a bunch of money in Pinnacle that you don't need for the next couple weeks, why not?

If your roll is small don't hit it, I agree.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value.

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I suppose it technically does, but since it contains the "Kobayashi and Chestnut must both start" clause, I think the EV is extremely low.

I'm not even sure it's better than just earning two weeks of interest.

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People keep saying this, but there's no way of pulling that money out of Bodog (or any other site) in less than a month anyway. So, if you have an excess balance that would just be rotting in your account anyway, why the hell not bet it?

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value.

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I suppose it technically does, but since it contains the "Kobayashi and Chestnut must both start" clause, I think the EV is extremely low.

I'm not even sure it's better than just earning two weeks of interest.

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People keep saying this, but there's no way of pulling that money out of Bodog (or any other site) in less than a month anyway. So, if you have an excess balance that would just be rotting in your account anyway, why the hell not bet it?

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I do think the "Chestnut to win" bet is clearly better. If Kobayashi decides to play hurt [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] then Chestnut is a HUGE favorite, and certainly more likely to hit than the u57.

If you are not busto like me, then I agree you may as well go for it.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

exactly, may as well hit it. I don't see any harm in not as I will not be cashing out the money nor tieing it up in other bets within the next two weeks.

I was aware of the "must eat clause" and I do see value in this as there is always the chance that Koba will make an appearance - let's hope he does.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Hell, I hope he does too. I bet a unit on Chestnut at even money a few days ago. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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There is a non-zero chance that Kobayashi will compete. Even if the bet is cancelled 99% of the time, there is some value.

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I agree, I bet the max where I could on Chestnut at 1/1 odds (bodog and nine). It took 5 minutes tops, and if Kobayashi ends up competing, which he may do, it'll be worth it.

Check out gowdemon's post (near the end of the page) here:
http://forums.lasvegasadvisor.com/me...hreadid=243766

Apparently Kobayashi may compete.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

nevermind

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/28/ny...mp;oref=slogin


...so he is competing, psychological warfare or is there indeed an egde on Chesnut at -125? Should be lots of speculation about this.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

No speculation about it.
He really hurt his jaw.But He will compete for his dead mother if he can open his mouth .And He knows he will lose with that condition.
You do not know how Japanese think.
So bet on Chestnut if you can.Actually I could not find this bet anywhere.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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No speculation about it.
He really hurt his jaw.But He will compete for his dead mother if he can open his mouth .And He knows he will lose with that condition.
You do not know how Japanese think.
So bet on Chestnut if you can.Actually I could not find this bet anywhere.

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He's probably crazy enough to get cortisone shots in his jaw the night before. Part of me agrees with you and says Chestnut is the nuts, but another part of me thinks that betting against Kobayashi is like starting a land war in Asia.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

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I really appreciate the contributions Performidy makes to this forum, but I thought at the time that this was just wrong. Given that Kobayashi is Japanese (I live in this country, and there is great social pressure not to quit something if at all possible), that he had never said he wasn't going to compete, and that we're not doctors, there really was little "given information," as to whether he'd appear, and in reality this was very similar to a great baseball bet with a high chance of rain.

Anyway, of course this is obvious in retrospect, but I'm just surprised anyone on 2+2 would say a bet is -EV when the most likely outcomes are a +EV bet or a draw. A lot of times we're only looking for 5% edges at best anyway, and I think this one would certainly qualify. :-) Now watch Kobayashi win. :-)

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

No question I was wrong based on what's transpired so far...

-P

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Well Pinny hasn't put the offer back up so it looks like I'll be exposed for my full risk amount on this one.

It just feels like he's toying with Chesnut a bit here. You guys seem to be taking his injury report with full honesty because...he's Japanese. I hope you're right and this all isn't just bs.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

They have weighed in and stared each other down fighter style, lol. This is so lame. But it does look like Kobayashi is going to eat despite the fact that he can barely get his mouth open wide enough to stick a hot dog in.

link

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Way to go Joey!!!!!!!!!!!!! Your my HERO!!!!!!

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

lol, 66-63 joey over kobayashi

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

Sweet gay scoring at the end and Kobi should have been DQed.

Magically Chestnut has eaten 3 more hotdogs?

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

I think whatever they have in their mouths when the time is up counts towards their total so that's how Chesnut got up to 66.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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lol, 66-63 joey over kobayashi

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Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

well i was bummed because my under 60.5 -115 got crushed, but that was a tremendous jaw to jaw battle to be witness to.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

dumber than hockey, but ship the money.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

So Kobayashi's injury was either BS or played up by his crew wayyyyy toooo much. Glad that bastard lost. USA USA USA!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Brendan

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

not sure why he's a bastard but ok....