Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

The entire House is up for re-election next year, as is 1/3 of the Senate. I wonder if we can't put together a list of the ten or so most vulnerable representatives, plus a couple of senators. It sure would be nice if we could "Leach" a few more out of office. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

We can, as I understand it of the Senators 22 are Republicans as well.

obg

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Good idea, I would like to make some noise again this election.

Rasmussen Reports usually has something, but it may be too early. I would love to see the Dems put someone strong against Goodlatte.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Rep. Deborah Pryce (R, OH-15) voted "yea" for HR4411. She was reelected by only a few hundred votes in the last election and there was a recount. She has Ohio State University as part of her district.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

For starters, I think all Northeast and West Coast Republicans are at risk. Chris Shays tops this list, IMHO. I think he stands a good chance of finding himself Leached. He's considered a RINO by Republican stalwarts, yet isn't considered liberal by Dems. He's in no-man's land, subsisting on incumbancy alone.

Bob Goodlatte ran essentially unopposed last time. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] I hope that won't be the case this year.

Sen. Kyl won in 2006, so he won't be up until 2012.

Rep. Bachus was unopposed in 2002, 2004, and 2006! (WTF is with the people in that district???) Bush won 78% of that district's vote.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Good or bad, the most vulnerable House members are Dems who beat Republicans last time around, Incumbency is God in the House. They are NOT who we want to target at this time. I would think we should pick small state, preferably Midwest or Rocky Mt Senators who are Republican. States where a few thousand voters make a difference, and 25-50k in donations means a lot. If we have a year plus to start, I think we can raise 25k for 4 Senate runs each, and 10k for 10 House runs, provided we find ten anti-gambling zealots in vulnerable districts. 200k from 2+2.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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Bob Goodlatte ran essentially unopposed last time. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] I hope that won't be the case this year.

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There really is no hope for getting him out. Running basically unopposed is a certainty for him.

FWIW, Barney Frank runs unopposed, also.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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Rep. Deborah Pryce (R, OH-15) voted "yea" for HR4411. She was reelected by only a few hundred votes in the last election and there was a recount. She has Ohio State University as part of her district.

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Awesome target.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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Rep. Deborah Pryce (R, OH-15) voted "yea" for HR4411. She was reelected by only a few hundred votes in the last election and there was a recount. She has Ohio State University as part of her district.

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Yes, great target.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Geoff Davis (R-KY) is a good target. He almost lost last time, he's on the House Financial Services Committee (a powerful spot from which to oppose us), and he likely supported the McConnell horse racing carve-out.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

In the Senate, John Sununu is already running afraid in New Hampshire. He has made some attempts to distance himself from the rest of the republicans on civil rights issues, and is very afraid that the Iraq war will send him home just like it did both of NH's representatives last fall.

Perhaps he can be made to see that support from a few thousand poker players could make the difference (actually, unless he backs off his war support, it probabaly wont). I will write him and report his response here.

I will also write whomever the Dems nominate to run against him.

Skallagrim

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

The following congressmen voted for HR 4411 and won reelection in 2006 with <55% of the vote:

Rick Renzi (R-AZ) 54%
John Doolittle (R-CA) 49.9%
Brian Bilbray (R-CA) 53.2%
Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) 45.6%
Chris Shays (R-CT) 50.9%
Ric Keller (R-FL) 52.8%
Jim Marshall (D-GA) 50.5% (unlikely to be opposed by someone on our side, though)
John Barrow (D-GA) 50.3% (unlikely to be opposed by someone on our side, though)
Melissa Bean (D-IL) 50.9%
Mark Kirk (R-IL) 53.4%
Mark Souder (R-IN) 54.3%
Leonard Boswell (D-IA) 51.8%
Geoff Davis (R-KY) 51.7%
William Jefferson (D-LA) 30.1% (56.6% in run-off) [>55%, but very vulnerable]
Charlie Melancon (D-LA) 55.0%
Joe Knollenberg (R-MI) 51.6%
Thad McCotter (R) 54.1%
Lee Terry (R-NE) 54.7%
Mike Ferguson (R-NJ) 49.4%
Heather Wilson (R-NM) 50.2%
Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8%
Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%
Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%
Robin Hayes (R-NC) 50.1%
Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%
Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5%
Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%
Darlene Hooley (D-OR) 54.0%
Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%
Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%
Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%
Thelma Drake (R-VA) 51.3%
Dave Reichert (R-WA) 51.5%
Barbara Cubin (R-WY) 48.3%

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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The following congressmen voted for HR 4411 and won reelection in 2006 with <55% of the vote...

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So, it seems there are a few things to do with this info. First of all, if your congressman is on this list, he/she will be far more interested in your opinion (especially if you are a member of his/her party) than will someone who runs unopposed every time (but we need to write to them as well, of course).

As for who to oppose, it seems the ones from states where both major parties are strong (i.e., Ohio and Pennsylvalia reps are more vulnerable than are Georgia ones). Also, not everyone who voted for HR 4411 is against IGREA. Some just wanted regulation, like Peter King and Emanuel Cleaver (neither on this list), and support IGREA. Others are working hard against us. So, here's my first cut (in no particular order):

Rick Renzi (R-AZ). Renzi is currently under federal investigation for his involvement in a land-swap deal. On April 19, 2007, the FBI raided his family business, and he temporarily resigned from the House Intelligence Committee. On April 27 Renzi denied printed claims he was considering resigning office.

John Doolittle (R-CA). Tied to Abramoff scandal. Voted against us once he wasn't (allegedly) getting paid to vote for us.

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO). The Christian Coalition has ranked Musgrave's voting record at '100%' in support of the pro-Christian Coalition legislation listed on their scorecard (which includes Internet gaming).

Ric Keller (R-FL). Consistently against us. Appears he'll have strong challengers in 2008.

Mark Souder (R-IN)

Leonard Boswell (D-IA)

Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us.

Chris Shays (R-CT). Good target here, especially as he's so vehemently against us.

Geoff Davis (R-KY). Another good target, especially if former Rep. Ken Lucas runs against him again. Also, supports the horse carve-out for UIGEA.

William Jefferson (D-LA). He'll probably be in jail by 2008. This is a good shot for us (either against him for for an open seat).

Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%. Ohio is a good state for us, I think. It's becoming more progressive and libertarian, especially with regards to social conservatism.

Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5% Memorably called 38-year Marine Corps veteran Rep. John Murtha a coward for advocating leaving Iraq.

Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%. OSU, plus regular Ohio voters, make her seat vulnerable.

Heather Wilson (R-NM). Currently, she is under a preliminary investigation by the House Ethics Committee over whether she made inappropriate contact with the United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico by inquiring, shortly before an election in which she faced a stiff challenge, on the status of a corruption investigation involving a Democratic politician.

Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8%. NY is my kind of state, seeing how many are with us on IGREA.

Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%

Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%

Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%

Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%

Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%

Many of the others are good targets, too. That's just my first cut.

FYI: Charlie Melancon (D-LA) is cosponsoring IGREA

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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The following congressmen voted for HR 4411 and won reelection in 2006 with <55% of the vote...

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So, it seems there are a few things to do with this info. First of all, if your congressman is on this list, he/she will be far more interested in your opinion (especially if you are a member of his/her party) than will someone who runs unopposed every time (but we need to write to them as well, of course).

As for who to oppose, it seems the ones from states where both major parties are strong (i.e., Ohio and Pennsylvalia reps are more vulnerable than are Georgia ones). Also, not everyone who voted for HR 4411 is against IGREA. Some just wanted regulation, like Peter King and Emanuel Cleaver (neither on this list), and support IGREA. Others are working hard against us. So, here's my first cut (in no particular order):

Rick Renzi (R-AZ). Renzi is currently under federal investigation for his involvement in a land-swap deal. On April 19, 2007, the FBI raided his family business, and he temporarily resigned from the House Intelligence Committee. On April 27 Renzi denied printed claims he was considering resigning office.

John Doolittle (R-CA). Tied to Abramoff scandal. Voted against us once he wasn't (allegedly) getting paid to vote for us.

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO). The Christian Coalition has ranked Musgrave's voting record at '100%' in support of the pro-Christian Coalition legislation listed on their scorecard (which includes Internet gaming).

Ric Keller (R-FL). Consistently against us. Appears he'll have strong challengers in 2008.

Mark Souder (R-IN)

Leonard Boswell (D-IA)

Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us.

Chris Shays (R-CT). Good target here, especially as he's so vehemently against us.

Geoff Davis (R-KY). Another good target, especially if former Rep. Ken Lucas runs against him again. Also, supports the horse carve-out for UIGEA.

William Jefferson (D-LA). He'll probably be in jail by 2008. This is a good shot for us (either against him for for an open seat).

Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%. Ohio is a good state for us, I think. It's becoming more progressive and libertarian, especially with regards to social conservatism.

Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5% Memorably called 38-year Marine Corps veteran Rep. John Murtha a coward for advocating leaving Iraq.

Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%. OSU, plus regular Ohio voters, make her seat vulnerable.

Heather Wilson (R-NM). Currently, she is under a preliminary investigation by the House Ethics Committee over whether she made inappropriate contact with the United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico by inquiring, shortly before an election in which she faced a stiff challenge, on the status of a corruption investigation involving a Democratic politician.

Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8%. NY is my kind of state, seeing how many are with us on IGREA.

Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%

Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%

Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%

Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%

Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%

Many of the others are good targets, too. That's just my first cut.

FYI: Charlie Melancon (D-LA) is cosponsoring IGREA

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Excellent list.

It will be very hard to have Steve Chabot (R-OH) "leached" out of office, as he has Cincinnati in his district, which is in the second most Republican county in the U.S. behind Orange County in CA.

Heather Wilson is a prime target and her opponent in the last election was an idiot and nearly beat her anyway. Besides our issue here, I'd like to see her ousted also because of her crying on the House floor about her kids seeing the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident on television. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Engineer,

I would like to make two points here. The first is that your winnowing of the list is very good, as you might as well just forget "targeting" in the deep south where it's often hard to tell a democrat from a republican. The excpetion would be in larger urban areas.

And the second is that before posters here "target" those that backed the IUGEA, they should consider writing to those congressmen and asking them to reconsider, at least for poker, based on the various arguments we have discussed in this forum. After all there have been some who now are on our side, including a couple surprising ones. Then if the response of that congressman is negative to such a an appeal to reconsider, only then to target him. After all as mentioned, incumbancy is very strong, and we are better off with an incumbant who supports our efforts and legislation like that of Reps. Frank and Wexler, than we are with trying to unseat such an incumbant.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent list.

It will be very hard to have Steve Chabot (R-OH) "leached" out of office, as he has Cincinnati in his district, which is in the second most Republican county in the U.S. behind Orange County in CA.

Heather Wilson is a prime target and her opponent in the last election was an idiot and nearly beat her anyway. Besides our issue here, I'd like to see her ousted also because of her crying on the House floor about her kids seeing the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident on television. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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Thanks! I agree that the area is somewhat Republican. However, Chabot had a pretty tough fight last time, as did Davis, Schmidt, and many other Republicans in the region. It's not Alabama, that's for sure. Obviously we'll know more as challengers step forward, but he won't run unopposed, that's for sure. I hope we can do something here.

I agree on Heather Wilson. That was ridiculous.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to make two points here. The first is that your winnowing of the list is very good, as you might as well just forget "targeting" in the deep south where it's often hard to tell a democrat from a republican. The excpetion would be in larger urban areas.

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Thanks. It's good to know where to concentrate our energy, either in getting an incumbant to flip, or in finding one to Leach.

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And the second is that before posters here "target" those that backed the IUGEA, they should consider writing to those congressmen and asking them to reconsider, at least for poker, based on the various arguments we have discussed in this forum. After all there have been some who now are on our side, including a couple surprising ones. Then if the response of that congressman is negative to such a an appeal to reconsider, only then to target him. After all as mentioned, incumbancy is very strong, and we are better off with an incumbant who supports our efforts and legislation like that of Reps. Frank and Wexler, than we are with trying to unseat such an incumbant.

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Agree. My first statement was that these congressmen will likely be more interested in the opinions of their constituents. The elections aren't for a while, so we should be communicating with these guys to see if they'll work with us. However, the elections are right around the corner, so I guess we need to start looking at the political landscape while identifying those who are 100% against us, like Shays.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Here's my second cut. These congressmen actively oppose us. Still write and call them and try to encourage them to flip, of course:

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO). The Christian Coalition has ranked Musgrave's voting record at '100%' in support of the pro-Christian Coalition legislation listed on their scorecard (which includes Internet gaming).

Ric Keller (R-FL). Consistently against us. Appears he'll have strong challengers in 2008.

Mark Souder (R-IN). Brags about cosponsoring HR 4777 on his website. "U.S. Rep. Mark Souder joined a number of his House colleagues yesterday in cosponsoring H.R. 4777, the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act, legislation designed to crack down on the growing problem of illegal, offshore gambling, as well as illegal gambling that crosses state lines via phone lines and the Internet. The bipartisan bill was introduced in the House of Representatives on Thursday.... "

Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us. Plus, as a New England Republican, he'll have a tough challenger in '08.

Chris Shays (R-CT). Good target here, especially as he's so vehemently against us.

Geoff Davis (R-KY). Another good target, especially if former Rep. Ken Lucas runs against him again. Also, supports the horse carve-out for UIGEA. Would be good to get him off the House Financial Services Committee.

Steve Chabot (R-OH). Ohio is a good state for us, I think. It's becoming more progressive and libertarian, especially with regards to social conservatism. Chabot is a foe of ours.

Jean Schmidt (R-OH). Memorably called 38-year Marine Corps veteran Rep. John Murtha a coward for advocating leaving Iraq. Definitely an opponent of ours.

Deborah Pryce (R-OH). OSU, plus regular Ohio voters, make her seat vulnerable.

Heather Wilson (R-NM). Currently, she is under a preliminary investigation by the House Ethics Committee over whether she made inappropriate contact with the United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico by inquiring, shortly before an election in which she faced a stiff challenge, on the status of a corruption investigation involving a Democratic politician.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Nice work on the list... One correction

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Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us. Plus, as a New England Republican, he'll have a tough challenger in '08.

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MI=Michigan (not in New England)

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice work on the list... One correction

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Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us. Plus, as a New England Republican, he'll have a tough challenger in '08.

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MI=Michigan (not in New England)

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Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] I looked at the "R-MI" too quickly and thought he was from Rhode Island for that split second. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Pretty bad, considering I had just read an article on him.

Actually, Michigan is as good for us as New England. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

It might be a good idea to start scoping out potential congressional candidates for Jefferson's LA seat. He is going to jail, and will likely be replaced by another black, relatively liberal Democrat. LA uses a different system than the rest of the country, where the multiple opponents run in a first round, and there is almost always a runoff election of the top two candidates. There is a good chance that whoever will end up winning has not seriously thought about online gambling, but his/her position could easily be swayed for some campaign contributions. This might even be and instance where betting on BOTH horses is +EV.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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In the Senate, John Sununu is already running afraid in New Hampshire. He has made some attempts to distance himself from the rest of the republicans on civil rights issues, and is very afraid that the Iraq war will send him home just like it did both of NH's representatives last fall.

Perhaps he can be made to see that support from a few thousand poker players could make the difference (actually, unless he backs off his war support, it probabaly wont). I will write him and report his response here.

I will also write whomever the Dems nominate to run against him.

Skallagrim

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He's a good one to target for the reasons you mentioned.

I look forward to his reply to your letter.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Engineer,

Add Shelley Moore capito, R. WV to this list.

She will be finally challenged by a serious democrat
John Unger II a member of the WV State Senate.
Note: He is from Berkley County and was instrumental is getting the right of 4 counties to local option vote on gaming at the Horse Tracks as well.
For more on him:
http://www.legis.state.wv.us/Senate1...senmemview.cfm

He will be a very strong candidate and has a very good chance of winning. He is from the center area of her strongest supporters as well and has a great following there.

obg

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Shays is really vunerable. In 06 he was looked upon as the only Republican Rep in CT who might lose his seat, but then things got weird and he ended up as the only one to keep his seat. Having a repeat challenger from 04 may have helped him a bit, so hopefully a fresh challenger is prepared in 08.

Of those who have been listed the chances of getting him out are amoung the best.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Another one to check up in the House is Vern Buchanan (R-FL). He won a highly disputed, extremely close election in the Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice area where there were serious allegations and possible proof of voting machine irregularities. His opponent, Christine Jennings, was a former bank president, and I'd be very surprised if she doesn't get the Democratic nomination again next time.

He ran a pretty dirty primary campaign and burned a lot of bridges in his own party, to the point where a few of them strongly considered not endorsing him in the general election. In 2008, this might be as close to an open seat as you can have with an incumbent running.

The only "problem" is that he's actually appeared to be a pretty even-handed Congressman, despite a campaign which pulled far, far to the right. Has anyone created a nice form letter looking for views on Internet gambling for those in the House who weren't around for UIGEA?

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we really really need to get Bachus out just for darwin's sake, christ he is dumb.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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I'd like to see her ousted also because of her crying on the House floor about her kids seeing the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident on television.

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LOL, I didn't know this. My kids sneaked out of their room tonight to see me cudddling my naked wife before she got ready to go out.

I'll give you 2-1 that her kids need therapy and mine don't. What would she do if her kids found her in such a compromising position - nervous breakdown?

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Might want to check their percentages in the '04 elections as well.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]

.
.
LOL, I didn't know this. My kids sneaked out of their room tonight to see me cudddling my naked wife before she got ready to go out.
.
.


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This reply is worthless without pics... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see her ousted also because of her crying on the House floor about her kids seeing the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident on television.

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LOL, I didn't know this. My kids sneaked out of their room tonight to see me cudddling my naked wife before she got ready to go out.

I'll give you 2-1 that her kids need therapy and mine don't. What would she do if her kids found her in such a compromising position - nervous breakdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since they share her genes, I'll pass on that bet. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I saw a YouTube clip of Wilson's performance just prior to the Congressional elections. Pathetically funny.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

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Might want to check their percentages in the '04 elections as well.

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Go for it. Should be interesting data.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

58% Rick Renzi (R-AZ) 54% (not 54 – 51.8% in 2006)
65% John Doolittle (R-CA) 49.9%
-- Brian Bilbray (R-CA) 53.2%
51% Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) 45.6%
52% Chris Shays (R-CT) 50.9%
61% Ric Keller (R-FL) 52.8%
63% Jim Marshall (D-GA) 50.5%
52% John Barrow (D-GA) 50.3%
52% Melissa Bean (D-IL) 50.9%
64% Mark Kirk (R-IL) 53.4%
69% Mark Souder (R-IN) 54.3%
55% Leonard Boswell (D-IA) 51.8%
54% Geoff Davis (R-KY) 51.7%
79% William Jefferson (D-LA) 30.1% (56.6% in run-off)
50% Charlie Melancon (D-LA) 55.0%
58% Joe Knollenberg (R-MI) 51.6%
57% Thad McCotter (R) 54.1%
61% Lee Terry (R-NE) 54.7%
57% Mike Ferguson (R-NJ) 49.4%
54% Heather Wilson (R-NM) 50.2%
90% Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8% (token opposition, no D in ’04)
56% Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%
51% Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%
56% Robin Hayes (R-NC) 50.1%
60% Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%
52% Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5% (the 52% was a ’05 special election, preceeding Rep., Rob Portman, regularly chalked up 75-25 wins)
60% Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%
53% Darlene Hooley (D-OR) 54.0%
60% Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%
51% Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%
59% Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%
55% Thelma Drake (R-VA) 51.3%
52% Dave Reichert (R-WA) 51.5%
55% Barbara Cubin (R-WY) 48.3%

Numbers to the left are '04 percentages.

Many of the Rs on this list were caught napping in '06, with many disregarding party warnings that they were in danger of losing. They will be much better prepared next year.

The Ds will also have to spend a lot of time and resources defending freshmen who won in districts that lean R, voted for Bush twice, etc.

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Robin Hayes (NC-08) is a top target this cycle. Hayes will get a rematch from Larry Kissel, who I believe came within 400 votes of winning despite being outspent 4 to 1 and getting next to no support from the DCCC. The DCCC overlooked Kissell when they were doling out cash during the stretch run, missed a chance to put him over the top, and looked pretty foolish when the votes were counted. Kissell will probably get anything he wants/needs this time around, so look for a very competitive challenge.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
58% Rick Renzi (R-AZ) 54% (not 54 – 51.8% in 2006)
65% John Doolittle (R-CA) 49.9%.....

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Thanks. Nice job. The data looks great. It shows that we're barking up the right tree. Almost all had tough challenges in '04 as well as '06, so they're almost always in a tough fight. As such, they may be more inclined to listen to their constituents than would someone who wins by 78% every time. Also, they're typically draw tough challengers, keeping them vulnerable.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Since this is what I do, I would be happy to put a list together. Just PM the bill numbers of the votes I should be using for the for/against standard, and I will be happy to put together a list of the most vunerable seats. The NCEC numbers won't be out for a while now, but if I use D perf for last two cycles, and previous two elections results, with a bonus to high swing numbers we will get a good solid list. What I need to know also is how many House and Senate, and if you could get me PPA numbers per House district that would be helpful. If there is any additional considerations you would like for for/against status let me know. I realize we don't really have the cleanest votes. After that we can start scoping out the challengers in those districts.

By the way, the whole PAC idea I think is what has to happen, but while I can help alot with that, setting up, fundraising, press, grassroot for PAC is a full time job at least. I cannot work for candidate then get publicly involved as a person running a PAC. So, I can do work behind the scenes, I can set things up and organize them and do the strategic work, give you press contacts, train folks in fundraising and stuff, but I can't call anyone myself, and I can't have my name used. I'm really sorry, I'd like to help more, but it wouldn't be fair to the person paying my salary.

Is there anyone else with any political experience, or if not a willing person with available time. Most of my campaign hires aren't experienced, so I'm sure we could train some people into being operatives if they were willing and able to put time into the PAC project. The key will really be the fundraising aspect. We will really need someone/s with contacts into both live and online players. They would need to be aggressive, not take no for an answer types. Because without the cash the whole thing just doesn't work.

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[ QUOTE ]
Rep. Bachus was unopposed in 2002, 2004, and 2006! (WTF is with the people in that district???) Bush won 78% of that district's vote.

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I used to live in his district. It is undoubtedly the most conservative, Bible-belted district in the country. It is highly unlikely that a non-Republican will ever win a seat in that district, and it is a virtual certainty that no one friendly to our cause will ever win a seat. Bachus is a moronic bung hole, but I am afraid that we are stuck with him. Focus your efforts elsewhere.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

This is a good discussion. I want to make a couple of points. First, if we are going to try to "Leach" some of these incumbents we better make darn sure that the candidate that replaces them is better on our issues, not worse.

Second, in regards to PokeReader, I am willing to devote a little time to this but it certainly wouldn't be full time. I know how to sell over the phone (I run a very successful retained search firm) and would be very good at fundraising. Why don't you IM me and we can have a discussion off line.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good discussion. I want to make a couple of points. First, if we are going to try to "Leach" some of these incumbents we better make darn sure that the candidate that replaces them is better on our issues, not worse.

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Maybe. I agree with the point you're trying to make, which to know the challengers. However, freshmen have little power in the House, so oftentimes we'll be better off with a new anti-gambling guy than the incumbant anti-gambling guy, especially if the new guy isn't an anti-gambling zealot. For example, Dave Loebsack is FAR better than Jim Leach. We'll have to look race-by-race once there are some declared challengers, I guess.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

Engineer,
My point is there are a ton of races we can fund but we will have somewhat limited resources. I would prefer to invest a significant amount of our money in 5-10 races where we can make an impact on a race that will definitely turn an opponent to a supporter then to spread that same money over 50 races where 40 of them are only marginally better and it puts our best 5-10 races at risk because we didn't donate enough to them.

Re: Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents
 

[ QUOTE ]
Engineer,
My point is there are a ton of races we can fund but we will have somewhat limited resources. I would prefer to invest a significant amount of our money in 5-10 races where we can make an impact on a race that will definitely turn an opponent to a supporter then to spread that same money over 50 races where 40 of them are only marginally better and it puts our best 5-10 races at risk because we didn't donate enough to them.

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Agree. My original post says we should make a list of ten or so vulnerable pro-UIGEA representatives. Again, that's just the list. Of these, I imagine we'd be actually put our focus on some fraction of these.