What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

It seems extremely likely that the winner of the Main Event will not be a 'big name' (e.g. top 100) player.

But while none of the last three winners were 'big names' at the time they won, they all had a decent record of cashes in notable lower buy-in events.

You could find Raymer, Hachem, and Gold on the Hendon Mob poker database before they became world champions. On the other hand, Moneymaker and Varkonyi were completely unknown on the poker tournament circuit prior to their win, although they both competed in much smaller fields.

So, if we define a 'complete unknown' as someone who does not currently have an entry on the Hendon Mob player database, what is the chance that a complete unknown wins the Main Event in 2007?

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

I went with 30%. I don't think the voters who said 80%-90%+ read the last two paragraphs specifying your qualifications for being a "complete unknown", 'cause that's surely wrong.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

If I can manage to get staked, when I win I will be an unknown so I went with 90%

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

This is an interesting question..

The very nature of the event, combined with the fact that supposedly all the online qualifying donks got cash this year and had to buy themselves in (or not) probably means that the winner will at least be someone with a notable cash on hendonmob or cardplayer...but I still define a huge majority of those people as "complete unknowns."

It's all subjective...I was working a tournament once and asked Amnon Phillipi what his name was and he looked at me like I was retarded. Literally, he gave me a look like I would have gotten walked up to Kobe Bryant and sincerely asked him if he'd ever heard of the NBA. Now granted, the majority of people thought I was the dumba$$ on that one, but just because I didn't happen to catch whatever TV final table he made it to, didn't necessarily make him "somebody."

My point is that if a guy like Bob Bright or Eric Cajelias(sp) or Bryan Devonshire were to win....most of the people watching ESPN will be like "wow...a total unknown wins again!" when obviously...this is not the case...

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

I think your specifications are a little too precise... I have a couple of entries on the Mob database and I am still absolutely a complete unknown. If you said unknown as in 'a fairly regular recreational player won't have heard of them', then I think it's 90% likely.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was working a tournament once and asked Amnon Phillipi what his name was and he looked at me like I was retarded. Literally, he gave me a look like I would have gotten walked up to Kobe Bryant and sincerely asked him if he'd ever heard of the NBA.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, what a dickwad. amnon filipi (i hope i spelled his name wrong), seriously, who cares about him? (hint: nobody)

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

What is the chance that a complete idiot wins the main event? 99.99%

FYT

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Given your description, I say it the odds of an unknown winning are like 20%.

There have been a lot of poker tournaments, a lot of people have cashed at some point for some small amount of money.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was working a tournament once and asked Amnon Phillipi what his name was and he looked at me like I was retarded. Literally, he gave me a look like I would have gotten walked up to Kobe Bryant and sincerely asked him if he'd ever heard of the NBA.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, what a dickwad. amnon filipi (i hope i spelled his name wrong), seriously, who cares about him? (hint: nobody)

[/ QUOTE ]

So far on this trip to the WSOP I've played with and failed to recognise: Tex Barch, Nick Schulman, Mike Gracz and Shannon Shorr.

Almost all the other players I confessed this to seemed amazed when I admitted it.

And I haven't even heard of Mr Phillipi (I'm assuming it's a man) let alone recognise him!

Perhaps I don't watch enough poker on tv.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

50/50 ldo

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Since Moneymaker won there has been at least one bracelet winner at the FT (Arieh and Harrington 2004, Matusow 2005 and Cunningham 2006). If you figure on an expectation of 1.0 bracelet winners at this year's ME and give them a better than average chance to win, it's hard to see how the chance a complete unknown winning will be >90%.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

(1- #of ppl on hendon mob database(in ME) / # total entrants) * 100

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

It's a coinflip.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Ya...he said something along the lines of "is this guy serious?" and looked around at the rest of the table...it was pretty funny. I don't think he's a bad guy, and I'm not trying to hijack the thread, just illustrating that the term "unknown" is very subjective when a poker fan and media person like myself doesn't know who a supposed "somebody" is.

This is him by the way...
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/204/5...6555f23f29.jpg

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ya...he said something along the lines of "is this guy serious?" and looked around at the rest of the table...it was pretty funny. I don't think he's a bad guy, and I'm not trying to hijack the thread, just illustrating that the term "unknown" is very subjective when a poker fan and media person like myself doesn't know who a supposed "somebody" is.

This is him by the way...
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/204/5...6555f23f29.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not know the let the geico caveman play poker!!!!

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did not know the let the geico caveman play poker!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny you should say that....rumor has it that last year, the ESPN cameramen were referring to finalist Leif Force as "mango salsa"

If you don't see why that's funny...watch this

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Every year there are 100+ more name "pros" than last year. So the chance of a pro or name winning go up every year. Still if they get 6000+ some Joe will win like 90%+.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

70%. More likely than not, in other words.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
50/50 ldo

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, either you do or you dont. whats the problem?

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

90%+

What about all the internet guys who never/rarely play live but play a ton online? They aren't going to have a Hendon Mob entry.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

I can't believe so many people are answering 90%+.

Out of the last three Main Events final tables, only 7 (out of 27) players did not have a Hendon Mob entry prior to their ME cash. Unless you think this year's main event is going to be much larger than any of those years, I don't see how you can answer 50%+, much less 90%+.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

10+

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

i saw the title and was like "er lol obviously ridiculously high ldo"

then i saw the specifications. if you are counting any previous cash as "known" then in this day and age with many less internet qualifiers this year and that many tourneys now in the history books, i think it's only 10%+

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

BTW, according to Hendon Mob, the prior records of the 2006 ME Final Table participants:

Gold - 9 cashes for ~$100K
Wasicka - 6 cashes for ~$250K, including 15th in WPT championship
Binger - 3 cashes for ~$100K
Cunningham - Top-tier players with many cashes for millions, bracelets, etc.
Butler - No entry (complete unknown)
Lee - One cash for $5600 (I have more career earnings than he did [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
Kim - No entry (complete unknown...though obviously not unknown to 2+2)
Friberg - Two cashes for ~90K (won a tourney in Sweden)
Nassif - No entry (complete unknown)

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

it is actually impossible. doucy?

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

I hope a dmitri nobles type player wins, that would so incredibly sweet, especially for the inexperienced players watching at home.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? No please, explain. Or else stop making pointless posts.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

50% either it is or it isn't

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

interesting thread. by my calculations it is 64.1%. looking forward to hearing more ideas on this one.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe because the winner will have already cashed and therefore be on the hendon database? thought i don't know that's how it works...

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
interesting thread. by my calculations it is 64.1%. looking forward to hearing more ideas on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Statistics show 57.3% of all statistics are made up.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Lee - One cash for $5600 (I have more career earnings than he did )

.... Apparently, Mr. Lee already was well-known to law enforcement folks.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe because the winner will have already cashed and therefore be on the hendon database? thought i don't know that's how it works...

[/ QUOTE ]

I see...I hope I was clear that I meant someone with a Hendon Mob entry as of today. Though having a database entry as of the start of the Main Event would probably be a better criteria.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

scooby doo can doo doo but sartre is smartre

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Basic criteria to be regarded as a 'known player' should be that you either have won a major event, final tabled several, or are a notable regular in high stakes games.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ya...he said something along the lines of "is this guy serious?" and looked around at the rest of the table...it was pretty funny. I don't think he's a bad guy, and I'm not trying to hijack the thread, just illustrating that the term "unknown" is very subjective when a poker fan and media person like myself doesn't know who a supposed "somebody" is.

This is him by the way...
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/204/5...6555f23f29.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not know the let the geico caveman play poker!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is so easy even a caveman can do it.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

OK, let's try this poll:

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is actually impossible. doucy?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

sartre can explain it to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe because the winner will have already cashed and therefore be on the hendon database? thought i don't know that's how it works...

[/ QUOTE ]

I see...I hope I was clear that I meant someone with a Hendon Mob entry as of today. Though having a database entry as of the start of the Main Event would probably be a better criteria.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, that isn't what i meant. sartre wouldn't concern himself with such a silly technicality. anyway, my post was rhetorical and wasn't supposed to be commented on.

/hijack