Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

Some of the first mags have come out, but I've been studying since the pro bowl.

I'm playing in the WCOFF (www.wcoff.com) for the first time this year and am really excited about it. Let's get some discussion going. I'll start w/ my top 10 RBs (in order)
assuming regular scoring plus point per reception

1. LT
2. SJackson
3. McGahee (I'm a lot higher on him than most)
4. Addai
5. LJ (don't really like him this year)
6. Henry
7. Bush
8. Alexander
9. Moroney
10. Westbrook

RB is deeper in the first 15-20 this year than it has been in a few years. Surprising that with all the talk about the two headed running back system taking over in the NFL, so many of the two headed systems traded a guy and now have featured backs. Last year there were only about half the teams with a true featured back going into the year and the rest was a big guessing game. This year a bunch of them have split up or one has come to the clear front(benson/tjones, moroney/dillon, denver, addai/rhodes, etc..)

There are also still a lot of interesting RBBC situations that will factor into the fantasy season one way or another (NO, Jacksonville, Carolina, ATL, WAS, DAL, DET, MIN).

WR is also very flat in the top 10 picks and then from 10-22 or so. There are two distinct tiers, but not much after that save a few fliers (Vincent Jackson, SD...my fave sleeper of the early summer)

QBs are deep all the way until 13-15 or so. I'll stay with my normal strategy of not picking my starting QB until everyone else in the league has one (unless someone retarded just drops to me)

DEF/Kickers are as unpredictable as ever. There are a few sleeper D's that I like (Oakland, Jacksonville) late, but I'll probably splurge for Baltimore in leagues that have normal scoring for Def.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Maroney is really close with Addai, it depends on his shoulder. The Pats offense could really open up with Moss/Stallworth/Welker this year.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Alexander imo should be much higher. He averaged 28 carries after he came back from the injury (not counting the first game because they took it easy on him) 112 yds and 1 rushing TD a game. I believe he was still playing with that foot injury as well?

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

What do you guys think of Marion Barber III? I ended up using him with SJackson last season to mucho success, although my league's commish was dumb and biased the scoring towards TDs and away from yds...

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

I like McGahee too; should be good for 1,500 yards. My only concern would be McNair sucking it up & not giving him enough scoring chances.
My biased sleeper pick is Lynch w/ an improved QB/OL & nobody of note to share carries with.
Who would've thought 10 months ago Travis Henry > Ronnie Brown?
I dunno if Jacksonville can be called a sleeper D anymore.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

I'd rank reggie bush up higher, mcgahee down a bit.

Look at bush's stats from the last 6-8 games last year...he really figured something out.

It will be interesting to see where the experts rank him...I hope its low so I can grab him coming back in round 2.

What about Benson being a feature back for the Bears? Jones is gone, running team, QB not known for lighting it up through the air....sounds like a recipe for 1600+ yds, 10+ TDS. They also get to play Detroit and GB twice.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think of Marion Barber III? I ended up using him with SJackson last season to mucho success, although my league's commish was dumb and biased the scoring towards TDs and away from yds...

[/ QUOTE ]

Barber scores a lot....I pick him up as a 3 or 4 back. I got killed with injuries last year at RB and he brought home a few wins for me until I got my starters back.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

McGahee sucks. Hard.

Alexander's top 5.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll start w/ my top 10 RBs (in order)
assuming regular scoring plus point per reception

1. LT
2. SJackson
3. McGahee (I'm a lot higher on him than most)
4. Addai
5. LJ (don't really like him this year)
6. Henry
7. Bush
8. Alexander
9. Moroney
10. Westbrook


[/ QUOTE ]

In PPR, I'd go:

1. LT
2. Jackson
3. Addai
4. Maroney
5. Gore
6. LJ
7. Bush
8. Westbrook
9. Alexander
10. Parker

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

Zod -
I love moroney. that team is going to put up mad numbers and they will be playing from ahead a lot.

69sofine -
Alexander is pretty high on a lot of boards, high enough that i'll prob never draft him. i'm a little meh on him this year..he's getting up in age, we're not sure about the foot still, holmgren has been passing a lot more in the red zone. i'm not down on him, but i'm not amped on him either.

mbillie and pokerbobo -
i had mbIII last year too, and watching his games, a lot of his TDs were flukey...JJ rattles off 7 straight carries down to the two and he punches it in...i saw that 3 or 4 times at least. a lot of his statlines were like 6 carries for 4 yds, 2 TDs. nice if you can always do that, but i think his stats were too flukey last year and he'll be overvalued. Now, if JJ is demoted/traded/hurt, i do like him a lot. (I'm prob staying away from both this year, though)

MacGuyV -
If you look at stupid, fat Jamal Lewis' #s from last year (almost 1200 yds and 9 tds) and think about how much better a back willis is, i think we are looking at a huge year. i love backs from teams w/ good defenses, they gave up a lot to get him, he is unquestionably their best offensive threat, he has been very durable for someone w/ his injury in college, he has something to prove. McNair is the perfect QB for him because he doesn't turn over the ball alot and they won't allow him to just light it up throwing 50x a game. I see a lot of 28 carry, 125 yd 2 td games from my boy.
I like Lynch, too, and I'll be interested to see where he is ranked. I love him as a 3rd RB or a 2nd RB if you go RB/WR/WR.
I actually kind of like Brown this year too...more than most. I love backs who were 1st round picks from last year who were busts. they always fall too far.

pokerbobo -
in my main league, i drafted RB 8th overall last year, so obv. i love the guy. in a ppr league or a league that awards bonus pts for long td's i think he is top 5.
Most rankings have him around 12-16. If I got mcgahee at like 7 and reggie at 18 or whatever, i would be loving life.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

WR

1. Smith
2. Holt
3. C Johnson
4. Harrison
5. Fitzgerald
6. R Williams
7. J Walker
8. R Wayne
9. Boldin
10. Owens



QB

1. Manning
2. Palmer
3. Brady
4. Brees
5. Kitna
6. Bulger
7. Leinart
8. McNabb
9. Hasselbeck
10. Vick



TE

1. Gates
2. Heap
3. Gonzo
4. Winslow
5. Shockey
6. Crumpler
7. Cooley
8. Davis
9. Witten
10. Miller


D

1. Chi
2. SD
3. Balt
4. Den
5. NE
6. Jax
7. Miami
8. Carolina
9. Pitt
10. Indy


K

1. Vinateri
2. Elam
3. Wilkins
4. Keading
5. Brown
6. Hanson
7. Graham
8. Gould
9. Nedney
10. Gostkowski

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll start w/ my top 10 RBs (in order)
assuming regular scoring plus point per reception

1. LT
2. SJackson
3. McGahee (I'm a lot higher on him than most)
4. Addai
5. LJ (don't really like him this year)
6. Henry
7. Bush
8. Alexander
9. Moroney
10. Westbrook


[/ QUOTE ]

In PPR, I'd go:

1. LT
2. Jackson
3. Addai
4. Maroney
5. Gore
6. LJ
7. Bush
8. Westbrook
9. Alexander
10. Parker

[/ QUOTE ]

i really think parker and gore are way overrated this year. i don't know how anyone doesn't have henry and willis in their top 10.
look at the numbers put up by the crappy players they are replacing and the sick D's that both those teams will put up.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

I'm two days under two months before my first draft and I was just thinking about putting this together. By the way Soss shouldn't you be in Vegas coming just short of winning a bracelet? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

This is really a strange year for fantasy. Without a top two pick your almost picking with your eyes closed for the next 15.

LT & Steven Jackson are clearly ahead of the class. After that it comes down to a ton of other factors. Schedule, I have yet to break down who has the easier running schedule, or what teams look like they will be ahead often enough for some garbage yards.

Playing Time for guys like Maurice Jones-Drew and Brandon Jacobs.

Frank Gore is an interesting test. Without Norv Turner calling plays will his yardage drop? The 49ers should be a decent team this year and if they are going to take that step you have to expect a good year out of Gore.

McGahee is also interesting in a PPR league because of how little Baltimore has thrown to the running back in that offense. He might put up 1500 yards, but will they score enough to give him a big TD year and really make him a top five back?

First impressions for me (assuming PPR):
1.LT
2.Jackson
3.Addai
4.Westbrook
5.Alexander
6.McGahee
7.Larry Johnson
8.Maroney
9.Henry
10.Gore
11.Bush
12.R. Johnson
13.T. Jones
14.W. Parker
15.C. Portis
16.C. Benson
17.R. Brown
18.Maurice Jones-Drew
19. Brandon Jacobs
20. McAllister

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

I'd take Gore over LJ. Why is everyone so down on him? Their offense should be better this year. LJ is going to fall off huge. He was seriously overworked last year and their line will probably be significantly worse then it was last year. Their passing game also will probably be worse which means defenses will key off of him more.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football\"
 

Henry is a joke at #5. So is not having Shauna in the top 5.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]

QB

1. Manning
2. Palmer
3. Brady
4. Brees
5. Kitna
6. Bulger
7. Leinart
8. McNabb
9. Hasselbeck
10. Vick





[/ QUOTE ]

LOL WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

That list doesn't look that bad to me. I'd bump Bulger up one for sure though.

Kitna had a solid fantasy year last year in his first full year as a starter and is returning to the same offense. He also has Calvin Johnson now. They have a sick receiving core.

I'm thinking:

1. Manning
2. Palmer
3. Brady
4. Brees
5. Bulger
6. Kitna
7. Leinart
8. McNabb
9. Hasselbeck
10. Rivers

If I were drafting today I'd be too scared to take Vick due to the possibility of him being suspended or in jail.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd take Gore over LJ. Why is everyone so down on him? Their offense should be better this year. LJ is going to fall off huge. He was seriously overworked last year and their line will probably be significantly worse then it was last year. Their passing game also will probably be worse which means defenses will key off of him more.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Chiefs offensive line probably won't be worse. Maybe not better either. However they have added two new tackles moving Welborn to guard is an upgrade, it's hard to tell, but I don't know about signifigant change. Adding Bowe gives them more of a threat at WR and really Trent Green didn't play enough last year for his loss to make any difference in the passing game. If anything their passing game could be better with either Coyle or Huard given the whole preseason to prepare. If anything it can't be as bad as it was. The carries from last year though and the prospective carries this year are my LJ red flag, even though the guy has really never been injured.

Don't underestimate the loss of Norv Turner's play calling hurting Smith and Gore.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

You don't think Will Shields retiring will have any effect?

Also, I think Kwame Harris being replaced should be a pretty big positive for the 49ers. Maybe not enough to offset Turner's play calling, but it is certainly going to make a difference.

/edit and having Vernon Davis again should help too.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Kitna to Furrey FTW


Gore as the 10th ranked back in absurd. He plays in the NFC west against powerhouse Defenses like Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle 6 times.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Just realized I have Maroney and LT in Caldarooni's MTTC keeper league.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Gore without Norv Turner and an o-line without Larry Allen which was signifcantly crappier than last years line averaged 4.8 YPC as the 2nd running back on the 9ers. He'll be alright without Norv. Larry Allen is big for the team, he is still an excellent run blocker. After the first couple of weeks, he only had 2 fumbles and 1 fumble lost the last 12 games of the season. He also started scoring TDs more at the end of the season. His TD #s should go up this year with an improved offensive unit and an improve defensive unit. Even with a below average D and a below average O in which he was the featured guy he had a very good season. Now he hopefully has an entire season with an improved O-line, Darrell Jackson, Vernon Davis and a 3 year "vet" in Alex Smith. His carries could fall but he was one of the most effective backs period outside the redzone. He's no LT, but he shouldn't be outside the top 10 either.

LJ has lost another HOF caliber lineman and he's supposed to get less carries this year. McGahee should be better but he's had injury problems. I think LT, SJ are definitely top 2. The next 4 are probally LJ, SA, FG in no order in normal scoring leagues.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

McGahee blows because he doesn't score TDs and, since he sucks (see: ypc) he needs a million carries to do anything. He's not top 10.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Another question: how big of a year do you think Marques Colston will have? He pretty much saved my QB-less team last season and got me into 3rd place of 12... is he good enough to take as a 2nd receiver (in a QB/WR,WR,WR/RB,RB/TE/K/DEF league) or maybe a 1st? just a 3rd?

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think Will Shields retiring will have any effect?

[/ QUOTE ] I'm sure it will. They brought in McIntosh though is pretty good. Kyle Turley was way underweight last year. Welbourn is much better on the inside. Casey Wiegmann is still a good center. Are they the line they were when Priest and LJ were putting up great numbers? Clearly not. I just can't see them being much worse on the line then they were last year, where they could never really replace Willie Roaf.

While Frank Gore was just great last year I don't think he can keep up a 5.4 YPC. He did only score 9 total TDs last year. I wonder if Robinson will take carries off of him around the goal line?

All in all I'm not sold on any of these ranking yet (well except for LT & SJ). But I could easily put Gore anywhere from 5 to 10 with no problem. Larry Johnson anywhere from 4 to 9, maybe even 3rd.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Ugh, Colston is a good enough #1 WR. Before his injury, I think he was the #1 receiver in a lot of different scoring systems. Brees and company are still going to pass a lot. It also doesn't hurt that Joe Horn has left the team. He's going to do well.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Did you see his scoring distributions? They tried to make Robinson the red zone back and it didn't work. He'll be the red-zone back next year unless he repeats his early week performances of fumbling on the goal line.

He might not be able to keep up 5.4. Even if it drops 1.0, it's still better than almost every other back in the league. LJ-4.3, SJ-4.4, WP-4.4, RJ-3.8, C. Taylor-4.0, TJ-4.1, etc. The only guys in his range are BW-5.1, Tiki(retired)-5.1, LT-5.2 (much higher than his career average).

Additionally, the offensive unit has improved around Gore. They have 2 legimate WR and a legitimate TE for most of the year barring injuries. I know Norv is gone but there will be more weapons around Frank.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

LJ is planning on possibly holding out to start the season if they don't up his contract..he's making 1.7 mil this year

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Henry could have a monster season given Cutler's arm strength, Dgraham blocking, and Lepsis being back from injury

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

They still like to split time in Denver. I think it's the way to go for a real title contending team (as seen by the last 4 teams last year all doing it) but not the greatest thing in the world for fantasy. I think Henry will have a good year, just others should do better.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Brandon Jacobs will be top 5 running back! he is unstoppablelllll

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
They still like to split time in Denver. I think it's the way to go for a real title contending team (as seen by the last 4 teams last year all doing it) but not the greatest thing in the world for fantasy. I think Henry will have a good year, just others should do better.

[/ QUOTE ]

they won't split that much time...its Mike Bell not Tatum Bell

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
They still like to split time in Denver. I think it's the way to go for a real title contending team (as seen by the last 4 teams last year all doing it) but not the greatest thing in the world for fantasy. I think Henry will have a good year, just others should do better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think he is going to get typical "#1" back carries if he is healthy. Shanahan really didn't seem pleased with either Bell last year which is why hes there now in the first place, imo. I don't see Mike Bell having more then a "spell" back role (unless Henry gets hurt). If they still had Tatum I'd think differently.

Also, their D is going to be sick this year. If drafting today I'd would consider taking them over any other defense in the league. They've beefed up their interior DL, potentially added a pass rush in drafting Moss and Crowder, added Bly and with the addition of Holdman as their 3rd LB, that group should still be outstanding.

/edit the reason I care about that is that they already like to run and will run a ton more if they are winning/shutting teams down, especially with a young QB.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

I still think the Ravens and Chicago are the way to go with drafting defensive units. The D-Line on Denver is still unproven and wasn't that good last year without Pryce. They also lost periennel pro-bowler Wilson. Bly + Bailey should make a real good combo but I'm not that confident in their front 7.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

I don't understand how you can be so high on McGahee. He's looked average against all teams sans the Jets, against whom he's looked like a HOFer. The Balt line has been good, but aging and lost 2 quality OGs. They did draft Ben Grubbs who will probably start, but rookie guards are still rookies. The rest of the O looks pretty good though, and for the first time in a long time they should be able to balance the O.

I think Willis should be better in Baltimore, don't get me wrong, but I don't think he should be top 5 in anyones book--not that you'd draft him in that slot anyways.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still think the Ravens and Chicago are the way to go with drafting defensive units. The D-Line on Denver is still unproven and wasn't that good last year without Pryce. They also lost periennel pro-bowler Wilson. Bly + Bailey should make a real good combo but I'm not that confident in their front 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Ravens lost their best player on defense and I think Ray is going to start breaking down.

I don't think the Broncos will miss Al too much. DJ at MLB, Holdman and Gold at OLB = one of the best LB cores in the NFL. I'm not "sold" on their DL, but they already did a decent job against the run and should improve there, and I think both their rookie DE should provide improvement over the guys they had rushing last year.

After thinking about it a little I'd still take Chi first, they are going to rack up points vs. the NFC North.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Their DL should be sick
Its their ends I'm more worried about

also the greatest off season defensive get they made was Jim Bates

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

[ QUOTE ]
1. LT
2. SJackson
3. McGahee (I'm a lot higher on him than most)
4. Addai
5. LJ (don't really like him this year)
6. Henry
7. Bush
8. Alexander
9. Moroney
10. Westbrook

[/ QUOTE ]

wow. No willie parker? I don't think Reggie BUsh belongs on this list. Henry is too high and Westbrook too low.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

Maurice Jones-Drew should be in that top 10.

Re: Official \"it\'s not too early to start talking about Fantasy Footba
 

If some of you guys are not into drafting QB's early on, I'd keep my eye on Chad (non bias obv). Finally had a healthy year, and looks like he is good. He didn't lose anyone on offense, added a strong RB to actually have a running game now, and the offensive line only got stronger with experience (remember, LT brick and C mangold were rookies last year). Threw for around 3200 yards last year, 17 TDs (16 INTs though [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]) but can surely suprise some people.

Also, Assasni, I would watch out for Nugent this year. I have him ranked (non bias again, obv) as 4th best kicker in the league, and he should surely shock people this year. If he didn't miss a couple early ones last year, he would of had a pro bowl year.


I also believe DeAngelo Williams is going to have a big year, but who knows with the RBBC system in Carolina. I have a feeling they are going to utilize him more, and if you could get him in late rounds he should be an easy pick up.