Botting the WNBA Season...
 

With not much to bet on over the summer(especially as I'm not a fan of baseball), I decided to start betting on the WNBA. One problem: I know absolutely nothing about the WNBA. So I decided to write a program that would make my predictions for me, hence the phrase "botting" in the subject. This is really just a hobby for over the Summer, and a fun way for me to keep my gambling fix.

I've fed the program a lot of stats, and from that it will predict the exact outcome of said game, based on various factors. The key to the program is that I don't tell it how to come up with the predicted results - for example I don't say "Hey, the home team wins 75% of the time so factor that into your results". I let the program try and figure out an exact percentage for itself, readjusting itself as more data comes in.

Do I expect this bot to be a winning bot? Most likely not. It's not very complex at the moment, and has a long ways to go. For example it doesn't factor in any players yet(although that's possible in the future). Mainly it's a way for me to bet all Summer on the WNBA, and for me is a lot more fun than just flipping a coin.

Anyhoo - the bot went "live" - as in I started "trusting" its picks on Friday. I've actually posted these on another forum(if someone wanted verification that I was doing it pre-game), and I'll start posting them on here. I should advise that I'd hope no-one trusts the bots picks religiously [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Anyway I'll get everyone up to date with the results so far...

June 15th:

New York +2: Prediction is New York to win by 1 point. They lose. Loss.
Connecticut +8: Prediction is Connecticut lose by 5. They lose by 3. Win.
Phoenix +10: Prediction is Phoenix win by 10. No bet.
Houston +11: Prediction is Seattle win by 12. Win by 13. Win.
LA +1.5: Prediction is LA win outright, by 4 points. They win by 9 points. Win.

Record:

3-1-0 (75%)

June 16th:

Indiana +3.5: Bot says Indiana lose by 3. They win by 10. Win.
New York +5: Bot says New York lose by 2. They lose by 8. Loss.
Minnesota +1.5: Bot says LA win by 6. They lose by like, a lot. Loss.
Houston +14: Bot says Houston lose by 11. They lose by 12. Win.

5-3-0 (62.5%)

And today, just the one game as Chicago took on Connecticut, Chicago at +8.5. Bot says Chicago would actually win by 2 points...and they win by 13 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Win.

6-3-0 (66.7%)

And after writing all that...it predicts Detroit will beat LA by 2 points tomorrow, and the line is Detroit -2, so no bet tomorrow
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Nice sample size.

Would love to see the results at the end of the season.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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Nice sample size.

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Nice encouragement. The longest journey begins with the first step, no?

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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Nice sample size.

Would love to see the results at the end of the season.

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Haha. Yeah - I am completely breaking all "rules" when it comes to sample size [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Thats okay -as I mentioned it's really just a fun hobby, and something I always wanted to do. If I was really 100% serious about it at this stage I'd be plugging data from years ago, and running sims from past games and fine-tuning it based on results in the past. It's really just a work-in-progress, and hopefully something that might actually become a serious(and profitable) project in future years. I just figured I'd start posting results as I go, and update on programming changes and look at trends as the season goes on. Plus that way people can see it progress.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Sounds like a fun project. Posting your picks here is a good way to keep track of your W/L, but I know I personally would enjoy hearing about the various observations and tweaks you make to the model along the way. Please post as much or as little information as you would like to share. Good luck!

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Hope this works for you, but consider predicting the odds. For example: even the worst of teams (in most situations) shouldn't be predicted to win by more than 10 points a majority of the time. I know WNBA teams will get trashed from time to time, but you're going to have a tough time predicting this result over the long haul.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

i appreciate the picks.... and there's so little objective info (i.e. NO sagarin) out there about WNBA that i'd be inclined to give sample size some leeway.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

pick the teams which are the most unattractive i bet they the good teams.....lol.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sounds like a fun project. Posting your picks here is a good way to keep track of your W/L, but I know I personally would enjoy hearing about the various observations and tweaks you make to the model along the way. Please post as much or as little information as you would like to share. Good luck!

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I'll mostly be tracking the W/L via the program, because I'll write some stuff that'll provide a lot of detailed output other than just the W/L record, but I just like sharing this stuff on a public forum for a variety of reasons. It helps me track my progress I find writing it in public, rather than doing it all in private. And I'll definitely share any observations and tweaks as time goes on. Right now I'm probably going to just let it run for a month to see how things go and make sure there's no major hiccups, then analyze the data.

[ QUOTE ]
Hope this works for you, but consider predicting the odds. For example: even the worst of teams (in most situations) shouldn't be predicted to win by more than 10 points a majority of the time. I know WNBA teams will get trashed from time to time, but you're going to have a tough time predicting this result over the long haul.

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This is something that I'm looking into. I'd eventually like it to output a lot of different data, also in relation to the over/under, so I can determine where the best value is.

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i appreciate the picks.... and there's so little objective info (i.e. NO sagarin) out there about WNBA that i'd be inclined to give sample size some leeway.

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Yeah I think there's enough people out there that like to bet no matter what, which was another reason I (a) wrote this, and (b) posted it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The line tonight is Sacramento Monarchs -4 vs Chicago Sky. Bot predicts Sacramento to win by 5 points, so Monarchs is the bet that the bot will be taking. Interestingly, if I tell it not to consider home/away records at all, it comes up with exactly -4 for Monarchs. I like when it predicts the spread almost exactly - feels like I am on the right track.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Let me also add that, from my perspective, the point spread is a secondary. I'm much more concerned with the team's probability of winning. Once you've got this the point spread can be approximated fairly easily.

The only problem is that when you're trying to gauge the successfulness of a probability you can't use simple W-L records, so you'll have to use some sort of loss function that can be difficult to interpret when the probabilities vary.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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Let me also add that, from my perspective, the point spread is a secondary. I'm much more concerned with the team's probability of winning. Once you've got this the point spread can be approximated fairly easily.

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Seems like you should be able to back into win probabilities using the point spread odds and money lines for the WNBA at Pinny.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

I know how to evaluate the market. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm talking about from a prediction standpoint.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know how to evaluate the market. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm talking about from a prediction standpoint.

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The win probability is implied from the point spread prediction, no?

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

The win probability of the game is the no-vigorish money line price.

The win probability of the point spread can be similarly derived.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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I'd eventually like it to output a lot of different data, also in relation to the over/under, so I can determine where the best value is.

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Blue, you might be interested in The NBA Toolbox and Thin-Slicing the NBA by Michael Murray, author of Betting Baseball 2007.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Those are very good articles. There may be some noise translating those statistics from NBA to WNBA though...

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The NBA revolves around which team shoots bettor from the field. In lower levels, other factors like ball handling, free throw shooting or rebounding takes on a bigger role. But the pro game is still about shooting the ball.

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Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

What you really want is Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver. He specifically talks about the WNBA and how it relates to general NBA statistics (such as adjustments made for possessions, although those stats are actually kept in the WNBA).

Also consider Hollinger's pro basketball prospectus from a couple of years ago (it's now online only and doesn't provide much detail about the stats). Mostly for NBA though.

Oh yeah, and neither of these guys bet games. 8)

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Those are very good articles. There may be some noise translating those statistics from NBA to WNBA though...

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The NBA revolves around which team shoots bettor from the field. In lower levels, other factors like ball handling, free throw shooting or rebounding takes on a bigger role. But the pro game is still about shooting the ball.

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The NBA shooting percentages range from 49.4% (Suns) to 43.8% (Pacers), while the WNBA's percentages range from 45.6% (Sparks) to 38.5% (Mystics). There are 18 NBA teams that had a better shooting percentage than the Sparks have to date.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Thanks for all the recent responses guys - I'll reply to them tomorrow - just wanted to get the picks up while I have a chance. Monarchs didn't cover, so at 6-4-0.

Wednesdays Games:

San Antonio -8 vs Minnesota: Prediction is San Antonio by 4, so Minnesota is the bet.

Connecticut -8 vs New York: Can't predict a winner, so New York is the pick here.

Houston +1.5 vs LA: Likes Los Angeles by 4 here.

Phoenix -10 vs Washington: Prediction is Phoenix by 9 points, in which case Washington is the pick.

Seattle +1.5 vs Detroit: Likes Detroit by 3.

Also, thanks to the literature links/mentions fun160 & rjp. That will really help when I move this to a serious level. My plan right now is to let this run to the end of June the way it is(with few, if any tweaks), then play around by adding in many more contributing factors to the results etc, mostly to get a lot more confident with the programming. Right now it's mostly an education for me. In August I may take it off the shelf, and work on past seasons of the WNBA where I can get more data inputted, more sample sizes, and a more accurate prediction. I dunno August is a long ways away - we'll just let it ride for now and see how it goes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The main thing is that I am really enjoying this project, and look forward to taking it to a more serious level.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

San Antonio -8 vs Minnesota: Prediction is San Antonio by 4, so Minnesota is the bet. <font color="red">WIN</font>
Connecticut -8 vs New York: Can't predict a winner, so New York is the pick here. <font color="red">WIN</font>
Houston +1.5 vs LA: Likes Los Angeles by 4 here. <font color="red">LOSS</font>
Phoenix -10 vs Washington: Prediction is Phoenix by 9 points, in which case Washington is the pick. <font color="red">WIN</font>
Seattle +1.5 vs Detroit: Likes Detroit by 3. <font color="red">WIN</font>

W/L record: 10-5-0 (66.7%)

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

I've ran into a few glitches while adding some new data, and it has caused data corruption throughout. I'm going to have to go back and enter everything again(hooray for forgetting to make a backup), so there'll be no Friday lines PROBABLY as it'll take some time. If I get it all sorted I'll post the Friday lines...and I'll probably post them anyway even if after-the-fact for consistency.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

any saturday picks??? (i do realize you explained your current situation.... but your picks have been so good so far [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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Mainly it's a way for me to bet all Summer on the WNBA, and for me is a lot more fun than just flipping a coin.

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There's a lot to be said for handicapping niche sports.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Alright - everything is back and up and running again. I've did some tweaking and have the program outputting data that helps me understand its prediction more, and hopefully assist in seeing good value bets in the future.I've went ahead and simmed the matches that I missed just for record-keeping sakes. Here they are:

June 22:

Connecticut +8.5 vs Indiana. Bot says Connecticut. Win.
Seattle +1.5 vs Minnesota. Bot says Seattle. Loss.
Detroit -4 vs Phoenix. Bot says Phoenix. Win.
San Antonio -2 vs New York. Bot says New York. Loss.
Washington +1.5 vs Houston. Bot says Washington. Loss.
Sacramento -6 vs Los Angeles. Bot says Sacramento. Loss.

Record: 12-9

June 23:

San Antonio +2 vs Connecticut: Bot says San Antonio. Win.
Detroit -1 vs Sacramento: Bot says Sacramento. Win.
Washington +5 vs Chicaco. Bot says Washington. Win.

Record:15-9

June 24:

Indiana -5.5 vs New York. Bot says New York. Loss.
Seattle +2 vs Los Angeles. Bot says Los Angeles. Loss.
Houston +4 vs Phoenix. Bot says Phoenix. Win.

Record: 16-11.

June 26:

Washington +3 vs Connecticut. Bot says Washington. Win.
Chicago +7 vs Seattle. Bot says Chicago. Loss.
San Antonio -4 vs Houston. Bot says Houston. Win.
New York +9 vs Sacramento. Bot says New York. Loss.

Record: 18-13.

June 27:

Connecticut +10 vs Detroit: Bot says Connecticut. Win.
Sacramento -5.5 vs Los Angeles. Bot says Los Angeles. Win.

Record: 20-13 (60.6%)

Which brings us to Today. Seattle are -3 vs Houston. Bot says Houston, mainly based on Seattles road record.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Mainly it's a way for me to bet all Summer on the WNBA, and for me is a lot more fun than just flipping a coin.

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There's a lot to be said for handicapping niche sports.

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Interesting article and thanks for linking that. It's something I had thought about but never really put much research into.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Last night was a WIN. Record: 21-13. (61.8%)

Today:

Indiana -6 vs Connecticut: Picks Indiana by 8 points.
Minnesota +6 vs San Antonio: Picks Minnesota to lose by 5.
New York +5 vs Los Angeles: Picks New York to lose by 3.
Detroit -3 vs Washington: Likes Detroit by 5.
Chicago +7.5 vs Sacramento: Likes Chicago to lose by no more than 5.

It also predicts the over for every game except Wash/Detroit. Out of the data I'm looking at, if I were to pick one recommendation it would be Detroit.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

I took the pick last night. I'll sweat you again today, GL.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Indiana -6 vs Connecticut: Picks Indiana. Loss.
Minnesota +6 vs San Antonio: Picks Minnesota. Win.
New York +5 vs Los Angeles: Picks New York. Win.
Detroit -3 vs Washington: Likes Detroit. Loss.
Chicago +7.5 vs Sacramento: Likes Chicago.Win.

Quite the topsy turvy night last night in WNBA, with every underdog winning. 3-2 for W/L, also 3-2 for the O/U.

Record: 24-15. (61.5%)

Tonights game is Houston at home to Phoenix. Bot likes Houston to win by 1 point, although taking out home court advantage likes Phoenix by 4. Either way - the bet is Phoenix +3. It also takes under 167.5 by 4 points.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Mr. BN,

nice work. Cashed 'em both. Doesn't get any closer on the total.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Haha yes - that was a close one. One less missed free throw and we'd miss the O/U [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


Record: 25-15. (62.5%)

Today we have:

Indiana +1 vs Washington: Likes Indiana to win outright by at least 4 points here.
San Antonio +7 vs Detroit: Predicts a close 2 point win for Detroit, thus San Antonio is the bet.
Minnesota +7 vs Sacramento: Sees Minnesota to lose by 6.
New York +6.5 vs Seattle: New York to lose by 3 max.
Chicago +1.5 vs LA: Predicts the line at 1.5, so no bet.

If I was to make a recommendation on any pick it would be Indiana. For Over/Unders it says Indiana over by 1.5, Seattle Under by 1.5, Los Angeles over by 3, Detroit over by 5, Sacramento over by 7.5. I've been more focused on it trying to accurately predict the expected point difference however, rather than the o/u so I wouldn't take TOO much stock in those estimations(which is why I'm not tracking the o/u record publicly).

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Very nice work MrBlue! I was on Indiana, SA, and New York last night (2 for 3). Looking forward to tomorrow's action. I can even watch one of the three on ESPN2. A couple more wins and I'll have to get NBA TV just to sweat them.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

I swear there is nothing more frustrating that sweating WNBA games... esp if you are betting on the over, lol.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Never ever sweat any CFL games then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I decided to have a try at it and started with Toronto/BC last week and.....man, I felt like I was betting a single number on roulette.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Yestersdays results:


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Indiana +1 Win.
San Antonio +7 Win.
Minnesota +7 Loss.
New York +6.5 Loss.


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YTD: 27-17. (61.4%)

No games today. 3 games tomorrow....it likes:

Los Angeles +11
San Antonio +2
Minnesota +2

Also likes the under in Washington game and Over in Seattle game(by 3 points in either game), and over in Minnesota/Phoenix by 9.

It fancies San Antonio to win outright 67.5% of the time. If I was to recommend a pick based on the stats, it would be San Antonio outright.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

I've been playing around with this a bit more on the analysis front - basically factoring in the sportsbook line, and then providing data on who will cover. I'm getting some interesting(and different) results than what I've been getting - for example under the old system it said Los Angeles would only lose by 6 points, while under the new system it actually says Seattle cover 48% of the time, Los Angeles 46% of the time, and a push 6% of the time. Based on this, I'm going to start posting(and tracking publicly) two predictions - the ones under the old system, and the ones under the new system. New system bets I will only post when it likes a team to cover by 60% or more(I may change that % in the future) Anyway...based on that, the new system says the only clear bet for tonight is San Antonio +2, and expected to cover 72% of the time.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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Also likes the under in Washington game and Over in Seattle game(by 3 points in either game), and over in Minnesota/Phoenix by 9.


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Can you please give us the lines tied to this statement?

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Yep sorry about that, Washington/San Antonio 146.5, Seattle/Los Angeles 154.5, Minnesota/Phoenix 168.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

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Anyway...based on that, the new system says the only clear bet for tonight is San Antonio +2, and expected to cover 72% of the time.

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San Antonio is listed at +3.5 at Bodog.

I decided to play around with a WNBA bot myself. It is still very early and I have several things that I need to get done before Ill be able to devote too much time to it, but when I get it done Ill start tracking my picks as well.

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

I took SA on your advice MBN, thanks!

Re: Botting the WNBA Season...
 

Yesterday saw us go 1-2, although the new system got the only pick of the day correct, which was San Antonio. I'm going to be listing the old system and the new system when I post - while it's clearly way too early to say anything, if you aren't adventurous but still want to bet, I'd go with any new system picks.

Tomorrow we have Los Angeles +6, at home to Indiana, with the O/U of 144.5

Old System: Predicted scorline is Indiana to win by 3, so Los Angeles would be the pick. Also predicts total of 151, so Over.

New system in the other hand predicts Los Angeles to cover 54% of the time, which is not enough to warrant a bet, thus no new system pick for this game.

Also on a semi-related note; I've started work on a soccer one as well, as I know soccer(being Scottish) much more than any other sport, which should give me an advantage. Plus with soccer all year round, if I can get a good system going it means year round sports betting for moi [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] These picks are all based on the new system. I don't think it warrants a new thread so I'll include any picks in here. FYI it went live before tonights games, and the only clear pick was Dallas to beat Chivas....which they did, 2-0. I also have it simulating and outputting the percentages of each possible result, which will help when I'm looking for value. I'm going to do some work tomorrow so that it will let me know when a line is valuable.

Speaking of - any recommendations on a sportsbook where I can bet the money line on MLS? Pinny just does the spread. Currently using Betfair, but rarely can do big money on that.

YTD:

WNBA:

Old System: 28-19 (59.6%)
New System: 1-0 (100%)

MLS: 1-0 (100%)