Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

lol

Will this climb higher?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

lol...that's what I just asked myself 30 seconds before I came here to see if there was a thread about it

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Gonna be some nice value in Pitt +1.5 tomorrow. And Washington getting like +350 against the Twins and Santana? Um ok take that shiat everytime. Johan hasn't been amazing lately to get this kind of line.

-Brendan

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Johan is getting that kind of line b/c the books dont think that Washington can with the series.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

This Clemens line is gonna be fun to watch. Just like Dice-K.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Parlay PIT +1.5 +110/WAS +1.5 +140

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Parlay PIT +1.5 +110/WAS +1.5 +140

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I have WAS +1.5 +140 and PIT 1.5 +120. Both on straight bets though. I am thinking on playing Washington +350. My hometown Twins are not playing so great right now and Santana certainly hasnt looked unstoppable. The 350 line seems out of whack.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have WAS +1.5 +140 and PIT 1.5 +120. Both on straight bets though. I am thinking on playing Washington +350. My hometown Twins are not playing so great right now and Santana certainly hasnt looked unstoppable. The 350 line seems out of whack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say Minnesota played a complete season under these exact conditions. In other words, they are the home team, playing Washington, with the starting pitchers being Speigner and Santana. How many games do you think they would win?

They would have to go a seemingly incredible 126-36 for +/-350 to be a break even line. Honestly, I think they could do it.

Sanatana is awesome. His career winning pct is .700. I would love to see his numbers if he pitched in the NL right now (look out Bob Gibson lol).

The Twins are a good team with a good bullpen. Washington is a terrible team from a bad leage (the NL, which is basically AAAA nowadays).

Speigner is simply horrible, and has no business being in the major leagues right now. In 28.2 innings, he has allowed 44 hits. He has walked 19 batters, compared to 14 Ks. His WHIP is 2.20.

This is about as severe a mismatch as you will see in MLB. A great starting pitcher on a very good team is going up against a minor league lineup with a minor league level starting pitcher (low minors that is).

Just because you can get +350, doesn't automatically make it a +EV bet. Some people here seem to assume that only a sucker would bet on a baseball game laying serious chalk. That's not automatically the case, and I wanted to lay out the opposite view.

As far betting on the Pirates, it was probably a good bet, but only because Clemens couldn't be expected to pitch that well. But depsite the Yankees sub-.500 record, they are still a powerhouse team. They have outscored their opponents at a pretty good clip, and obviously you can just look at their roster to know they are one of the best teams in baseball.

The Pirates are a terrible team, from the worst division of a bad league. The NL Central is so bad this year that it is ridiculous (although the Cubs are probably better than they have shown), and Pittsburgh will still finish with a horrendous record. Tampa Bay might be able to win that division.

I agree that it is absurd to consider Clemens some kind of ace (although in the NL he would be Cy Young material), especially since it is his first game back. That is the only reason I think you guys made a good to OK bet, but I would be very careful about betting on terrible NL teams against AL powerhouses just because you get high odds. The NL really is significantly worse than the AL, and that is the reason for why the lines seem a little extreme.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

I sat thinking along these lines too, with the season having enough games to bet on I decided to just pass and I think projections and systems should be skewed since this is interleague games.
And with a matchup like Santana-Speigner I was curious why everyone seem to like the +1.5 play at +140ish with ML being +350, if I had to choose whether to bet say Cubs, Toronto, Colorado at +140 I'd much rather do that then getting same odds for the worst team in MLB facing the best? pitcher in the MLB away for +1.5, but that's just me.

And the pitching in NL ain't that bad, is it?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
And with a matchup like Santana-Speigner I was curious why everyone seem to like the +1.5 play at +140ish with ML being +350

[/ QUOTE ]
At the time, the +140 was a favorable line to the non-vig line of approx. +133. Now, the non-vig line is 141, making +140 a negative EV play from a pure non-handicapped line perspective.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

Heh, Nats closed at +395.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heh, Nats closed at +395.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I wish I would have gotten on this line. I was away from the computer all day. I'm already on the game but not at that price.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

and Nats ML wins! wish I could have grabbed the 395 though (never saw it).

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

It was on pinny minutes before the game started.
Did anyone else think the lines moved a bit weird today?
Colorado line skyrocketed even if Orioles had Millar benched, I saw them at 159, and how can KC be favorites against the Phillies?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was on pinny minutes before the game started.
Did anyone else think the lines moved a bit weird today?
Colorado line skyrocketed even if Orioles had Millar benched, I saw them at 159, and how can KC be favorites against the Phillies?

[/ QUOTE ]

Was KC favored at some point???

I can only guess because Meche is having a pretty good year, and because the NL is a joke.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

I have 116 games in my database where the line was home team -300 or greater. The average line in those games was -337, and the home team actually went 89-27 or the equivalent of -329. The record for the Away team +1.5 was 44-72 or the equivalent of +164.

Its a very small sample size of course. But here's another set of data that looks bad for the run line away dog bettors: in games lined -250 to -299, (299 total games in my database), the away +1.5 has only covered the equivalent of +135.

Given this information, I wouldn't be happy getting Wash +1.5 +140.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have 116 games in my database where the line was home team -300 or greater.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many seasons back does your database go?

[ QUOTE ]
Here's another set of data that looks bad for the run line away dog bettors: in games lined -250 to -299, (299 total games in my database), the away +1.5 has only covered the equivalent of +135. Given this information, I wouldn't be happy getting Wash +1.5 +140.

[/ QUOTE ]

King, thanks for posting this. It's very helpful in trying to understand the potential uses of a database.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
How many seasons back does your database go?

[/ QUOTE ]

1998-2006

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have 116 games in my database where the line was home team -300 or greater. The average line in those games was -337, and the home team actually went 89-27 or the equivalent of -329. The record for the Away team +1.5 was 44-72 or the equivalent of +164.

Its a very small sample size of course. But here's another set of data that looks bad for the run line away dog bettors: in games lined -250 to -299, (299 total games in my database), the away +1.5 has only covered the equivalent of +135.

Given this information, I wouldn't be happy getting Wash +1.5 +140.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am curious what your thoughts are from a pure pricing perspective? Lets say the +1.5 was +140 at one book and at another book with normally efficient lines the 1.5/-1.5 was 129/-139. Now, you could make a .2% immediate profit (which is 73% annualized) by arbing or you can play a softside for a theoretical 2.92% (over 1000% annualized).

The market would have to be significantly off to justify the arb over the softline. In your experience, is the market reasonably efficient for a line shopper to not worry about handicapping concerns when simply playing a softside? Of course, the line shopper will often be wrong. But, I would think the shopper would be likely to be off in either direction equally over time to wash out any concerns.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

My feeling in this case is that more bettors are looking to bet the +1.5 than the -1.5. This thread is a reflection of this natural demand, people want to be able to win without having to see a +350 dog win the game...thus they take the points or in this case the runline.

The sample size is too small to say that is the case based on the data alone. Still, my feeling is that the runline is shaded down. The books and/or linemakers may think it is fair value since they get plenty of action on the dog side at that price. From my experience, they often make valuations based on past betting. If in the past, when the line has been that high and they've received plenty of action on +1.5 +140, then they are likely to keep the line the same due to expected action.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling in this case is that more bettors are looking to bet the +1.5 than the -1.5. This thread is a reflection of this natural demand, people want to be able to win without having to see a +350 dog win the game...thus they take the points or in this case the runline.

The sample size is too small to say that is the case based on the data alone. Still, my feeling is that the runline is shaded down. The books and/or linemakers may think it is fair value since they get plenty of action on the dog side at that price. From my experience, they often make valuations based on past betting. If in the past, when the line has been that high and they've received plenty of action on +1.5 +140, then they are likely to keep the line the same due to expected action.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess my question is this. Assume you know nothing about the actual event other than the current ML and RL. You are armed with the knowledge of your DB and the knowledge that the going RL market rate is +129/-139 and the going ML rate is 330/-360. Are you more inclined to take the softline +140 or the arb?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

arbing for a penny is a tough way to make money especially if the second side moves after you make your initial wager (make sure you bet the -139 first), but I'd prefer the arb over taking +140. I may prefer -1.5 -139 over the arb, but that would mean looking more carefully at a few issues about runlines that I haven't looked into yet.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I'd prefer the arb over taking +140. I may prefer -1.5 -139 over the arb, but that would mean looking more carefully at a few issues about runlines that I haven't looked into yet.

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks for your thoughts. Interesting. I am trying to figure out if there is a very fast way to make a determination on decisions when you have a favorable line past the arbitrage point. I figure it can't be too off to simply always bet the softside but there may be something more optimal.

[ QUOTE ]
arbing for a penny is a tough way to make money especially if the second side moves after you make your initial wager

[/ QUOTE ]As a one-off it is worthless. However, I was able to bet 18 different events during that hour and 1 cent arbs at least get into action unused funds. To place one additional arb is like 20 seconds. I don't have enough experience yet with one side moving but it you get caught on a bad arb once in a while it doesn't make a huge difference considering sometimes it will move in your favor.

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Johan is getting that kind of line b/c the books dont think that Washington can with the series.

[/ QUOTE ]
i'm basically a newb sports bettor... i make a few bets when i think the lines are way off but that's about it... anyway can someone explain this logic to me... noones contested it so i assume it's correct

what does the series have to do with the pricing on a particular game?

Re: Pittsburgh +230 at NYY (Clemens)
 

?