Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Currently there are a handful of Barry Bond HR 756th props on Bodog. I'm not terribly great at handicapping these things, but I wanted to at least start a thread to discuss these. One that looks particularly interesting:

Barry Bonds 756th HR Props - What will his total time around the bases be? (Clock start when bat makes contact with the ball.)

Over 27.5 seconds -130
Under 27.5 seconds -110

When Bonds broke Babe Ruth's record (#715), it took him about 32 seconds (http://youtube.com/watch?v=qMmlzBaTsTc). Is there any chance he really goes faster than this when he breaks the record? I guess it's possible, but I wanted to see what others thought about it. Personally, I like the over a lot.

Edit: When he tied Babe Ruth (#714), it took him about 29 seconds (http://youtube.com/watch?v=a4m0H0VKrk8).

And a more recent one, #746, was ~33 seconds (http://youtube.com/watch?v=G1A7cP_8bc4).

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Bonds should spider crawl around the bases for shiats and giggles.

-Brendan

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Over looks pretty good there, but I dont know anything.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

The one I looked at before betting was when he broke McGwire's single season record. It looked like 27.5 seconds exactly, so I thought maybe that's what they based the line off of, but he got a pretty clean trip around the bases on that one and didn't spend much time admiring the shot, so I assumed he'd be more likely to lose a second than gain one, particularly with those balky knees. Admittedly, I bet this one mostly for fun, but I thought I was on the right side.

HR #71 of '01 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KzHrSDaisY

I'm definitely glad to hear that he's already hitting the over on his normal HRs. Confidence is now high!

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Yeah, it's another good point that he's older and more broken down than he was back then. That has to be worth at least 1-2 seconds in base running time.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

With his shin splints, prednisone shots and compression socks this is starting to look like free monies.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

I maxed it.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

I'm on it. Thanks for the heads up. I love Bodog props.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Now at 29.5 seconds. Not sure but over still looks like value. I still am waiting to get paid out on celeb prop bets before I can bet this. Might lay off at the new # and odds.

-Brendan

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

I figured this was worth a bump...
I have the over.. (27.5 seconds)
It looks like the "old man with sore knees" made it around the bases in 26 seconds on his last HR.
Is this correct? He paused a few seconds at the plate but then he got around the bases fast.
This could be interesting.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

I just saw there are a ton of Barry Bonds 756th HR props on Bodog, but they are all closed for betting. Anyone know why this is?

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Bodog sometimes decides they have enough action

sometimes they reprice the props and open them up

no good answer

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

[ QUOTE ]
I figured this was worth a bump...
I have the over.. (27.5 seconds)
It looks like the "old man with sore knees" made it around the bases in 26 seconds on his last HR.
Is this correct? He paused a few seconds at the plate but then he got around the bases fast.
This could be interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a super small sample size, but if you look at my OP, Bonds was quicker when he tied Babe Ruth's record compared to when he broke it. I'm not sure this means anything, but assuming they occurred within a short time of each other (i.e. his physical health was the same for each), he "milked" the moment a bit longer when he broke a record compared to when he simply tied it.

I agree that it could be interesting but I still really like 27.5. For those of you who got 29 (or 29.5, I can't remember), I would be a little bit more worried.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

I found what I think is an incredible Barry Bonds prop on Bodog.

Right now +700 can be found on Bodog on whether Barry Bonds will hit his HR on a 0-0 count. Historically, he has hit 121 of his 755 HR's on a 0-0 count, which is 16%.

In addition, I have Lannan as being a really poor pitcher and giving up home runs at a rate of 1.05 of that compared to the league-average pitcher. The fact that Lannan is not a good pitcher tells me that the 1.05 multiplier should be weighted towards favorable hitter counts. In other words, home runs off Lannan will be much more likely (over 1.05 multiplier) to occur in 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, and 0-0 counts as compared to that of league-average rates. Home runs in 3-0, 3-2, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, and 0-2 will be under the 1.05 multiplier and in some cases may even be below league average due to the reduced frequency of Lannan's 0-2 counts, for example.

In addition, this year Barry Bonds has been swinging at first pitches 27% of the time. That's up from his career first pitch swing rate of 26%, and significantly up from his first pitch swing rate in recent years (22% in 2006, 19% in 2004, 24% in 2003, 25% in 2002, 25% in 2001).

This bet is No Actioned if he does not hit the HR. I've concluded that there is almost an 18% chance he hits his HR on an 0-0 count and set the line around +/- 460. Looks like a very solid bet in my opinion.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

I'm pretty sure the Bodog bet refers to when he hits career home run number 756, not just the game tonight against Lannan. It only gets No Action'd if Bonds somehow never hits # 756. I still like your analysis, though, regardless of who is pitching.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

He stood at the plate for a while. Had to go over.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Can anyone confirm how long it took? I had o29.5

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

It took about 32.5 seconds. This bet is a winner for sure.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Ship it.... too bad I couldnt bet $2500 on it so i would be unstuck from poker. My worst night ever... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

They already paid out mine. 32 seconds.

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

nice call on this, glad it was a no doubter

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

whohoo on solo HR!

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

[ QUOTE ]
whohoo on solo HR!

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Barry Bonds Props on Bodog
 

Easiest $$ ever. Just wish I had 1) more money in the account, 2) bigger betting limit for this prop.