does cramer make the stock market move?
 

seems like when cramer talks about certain stocks theres a good chance they will go up the next day, is this true? can u make money based on cramer alone?

i am a stock newbie

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems like when cramer talks about certain stocks theres a good chance they will go up the next day, is this true? can u make money based on cramer alone?

i am a stock newbie

[/ QUOTE ]

earthquake and animals' reactions, sir.

Barron

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

no. you should never listen to just one source. most money in the stock market doesn't listen to him.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

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no. you should never listen to just one source. most money in the stock market doesn't listen to him.

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ANIMALS & EARTHQUAKES!!!!

Barron

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

I read his recent book in which he did say that some of the stocks he promotes, the smaller cap ones, typically have a small bounce in afterhours trading when not-so-smart viewers put in market orders to buy.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

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can u make money based on cramer alone?


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You'd get a tidy ransom if you kidnapped him.

Cramer is for entertainment and little of what he says it tradeable, just like CNBC.

Don't bother with tips or tipsters.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems like when cramer talks about certain stocks theres a good chance they will go up the next day, is this true?

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As it was mentioned earlier the stocks do shoot up in after-hours trading right away when Cramer make a pick. Typically if you watch the real time ticker on CNBC during the show you will see the stocks he is talking about fly up considerably. Then 15 minutes later the stocks will begin to decline since he has moved on to something else. The next day the stock will drop at opening. Maybe rise a little bit during the morning hours then sell off again in the afternoon. After that it trades as normal.

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can u make money based on cramer alone?


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<u>You</u> can't. Since you are new to the game do not, and I repeat DO NOT, do any after-hours trading. It is far to risky for an amateur to mess around with after-hours trading. Trying to time the stock the next day is also way out of your league. Once you have had years of trading and stock picking practice and would be comfortable with that type of trading you'll realize you don't need Cramer's recommendations, you can find them on your own.

Cramer is great if he gets you motivated to learn about investing in stocks. He will give you some basic investing tips that are great for newbies. But don't make a trade just because Cramer likes it. You might as well throw darts.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

more generally, has anybody seen any studies of a mock portfolio's performance of following cramer's buy/sell recommendations since he started doing this?

thanks,
Barron

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

I vaguely remember reading about a TV or radio show some years back that made stock picks. I seem to remember that a wise guy somehow gained knowledge of which stocks were going to be touted on the show and bought them beofre the show aired and then sold them after the stocks were touted. Does anyone have any knowledge or a link to this?

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
more generally, has anybody seen any studies of a mock portfolio's performance of following cramer's buy/sell recommendations since he started doing this?

thanks,
Barron

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There is a site out there that follows this, I will see if I can locate it...

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

also www.cramerwatch.org

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

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http://yourmoneywatch.com/index.php?...ory&amp;year=0

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well obviously nothing is conclusive because of the way the study was done...

...BUT, it is pretty clear that if you don't get a strength signal from him (i.e. you simply buy X# of shares of a stock when he tells you to) then you might as well just put your money in an index fund.

he loses the diversification argument too since he had more stock recommendations than any of the indices have members (save Russell, which has like &gt;4000 IIRC).

one thing i don't know is if he comes back and says to sell a stock he previously said buy, is that included in the yourmoneywatch.com stats? if not, that is pretty significant, if it does, then his record is pretty crappy. one, provable but hard to get at, argument against this is that the #s do not include "buy re-iterations." so a simple strategy of doubling your # of shares in a stock he reiterates might have made up the difference in performance. i highly doubt it but it's worth a shot from his backers' point of view.

his overall value added was (non weighted on average vs. all indices) -14.3275%. so listening to cramer instead of ivnesting an equal amt in each of the indices netted you about a 14% loss since 7/28/2005.

pretty VERY crappy!

Barron

PS- there is one line item i don't understand:

"(Gain/Loss after 1st day traded: 2.37%)" ... i don't know if that means on 7/29/2005 he made 2.37% or if the average gain immediately after he recommends a stock is 2.37% and then goes down or what? i dunno. doesn't really matter in terms of the above discussion.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

Cramer is like the Hellmuth of the Stock Market, so, I don't think he has much impact at all whatsoever. He's mostly there for entertainment value, for people who've burned out their Boiler Room DVD.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

You can make money off of Cramer, short term, if you are nimble and follow his other products where he talks about the stuff he is going to talk about on his show first [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This type of trading though is not for someone who is not spending quite a bit of time doing their own research, specifically into how the market reacts to things he says on the show.

For the average individual stock investor, you can learn some things from the themes he talks about though.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

Cramer is like most other tipsters. He gives people what they want and not what they need. He makes his show all energy and excitement, which is bad news if you're trying to make rational investment/trading decisions.

Giving a buy tip is only about 10% of what you need to consider before you buy a stock - but it's the one 10% that most people are interested.

You can't make money consistently by only considering 10% of a strategy.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

i know for a fact it did with this stock

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=praa

it was about two or three months ago. i just know because i am in this business and my partner told me that kramer recommended the stock the night before. sure enough, it opened two points higher the next day. the whole sector has been on a tear since then

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

I don't watch his show very often, but I did today and he mentioned 3 small cap stocks: CCIX (up 5.8% after hours), FCSX (up 3.3%), and GLDD (up 16.3%). I don't really see any other reason besides cramer's recommendation for the moves, but I don't know how much of those gains will still be there by close tomorrow.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can make money off of Cramer, short term, if you are nimble and follow his other products where he talks about the stuff he is going to talk about on his show first [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This type of trading though is not for someone who is not spending quite a bit of time doing their own research, specifically into how the market reacts to things he says on the show.

For the average individual stock investor, you can learn some things from the themes he talks about though.


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not having done my own research, i'd have to guess one way would be to short his recommendations after they jump. since you can't tell which ones will jump, buying all i think is a mistake given the record.

instead, watch which recommendations move and short the biggest movers since that is likely an overreaction to his statements (obviously with the proviso that you know what would cause the stock to move higher and have a good understanding of each one's fundamentals).

making money like this is never easy, but seems like that is the approach i'd want to research and go for.

Barron

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cramer is like most other tipsters. He gives people what they want and not what they need. He makes his show all energy and excitement, which is bad news if you're trying to make rational investment/trading decisions.

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Absolutely. Cramer often makes stocks move. Sometimes the wrong way. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Giving a buy tip is only about 10% of what you need to consider before you buy a stock - but it's the one 10% that most people are interested.

You can't make money consistently by only considering 10% of a strategy.

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Cramer will sometimes hype a complete turd. This is a beauty short if you can research it quickly enough and smoke it out. He often does little or no research on his pumps. Or sometimes he knows he's hyping crap, but he's got friends that are stuck, and he tries to bail them out. Cramerplays can be profitable if you are quick.

Be aware that Cramer has a radio show during trading hours. Sometimes people will pile into something on his pump during a radio show. Then when he mentions the same stock on tv after-hours, the morning buyers dump into the tv buyers. That's why you'll sometimes see huge volume but the stock doesn't go anywhere.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

I actually like Cramer's show, and credit it for getting me interested in the stock market. It's probably just a coincidence that I started to get more involved at a really good time (last September), but I still based pretty much all of my stock picks on his advice. Now granted, this were pretty big-cap companies, so anyone could have recommended them.

I still have AAPL (bought at 73), GOOG (Bought at 396), GS (bought at 162), and SHLD (bought at 151). I also had a fifth stock slot that I've changed a few times which had 2 around 7% losses, one quick 10% gain, and one that is still unchanged. Overall I may not be much better off than the market average, but I am still quite happy that Cramer made the market interesting enough to try and buy individual stocks instead of mutual funds.

I'm also very suspicious of the accuracy for those Cramer tracking sites. I happened to take a look at some of the lowest stocks on the complete best to worst list at yourmoneywatch and found these five stocks:
FMX Buy: 91.32 Cur: 39.84 Gain%: -56.37, split 3:1, so actually up 31%
Volv Buy: 44.06 Cur: 21.03 Gain%: -52.27, split 5:1, so actually up 139%
NKE Buy: 95.23 Cur 56.75 Gain: -40.41, split 2:1, so actually up 19%
TRMB Buy: 41.95 Cir: 29.19 Gain%: -34.97, split 2:1, so actually up 39%
HITK Buy: 29.60 Cur: 11.80 Gain: -60.14, split 3:2, so down only 40%

There are probably several other examples, some even much higher up the list, of stock splits that were not taken into account. Because of this, and the fact they don't update to close the position when Cramer recommends a sell, I don't think you can really judge him based on those results alone.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://yourmoneywatch.com/index.php?...ory&amp;year=0

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well obviously nothing is conclusive because of the way the study was done...

...BUT, it is pretty clear that if you don't get a strength signal from him (i.e. you simply buy X# of shares of a stock when he tells you to) then you might as well just put your money in an index fund.

he loses the diversification argument too since he had more stock recommendations than any of the indices have members (save Russell, which has like &gt;4000 IIRC).

one thing i don't know is if he comes back and says to sell a stock he previously said buy, is that included in the yourmoneywatch.com stats? if not, that is pretty significant, if it does, then his record is pretty crappy. one, provable but hard to get at, argument against this is that the #s do not include "buy re-iterations." so a simple strategy of doubling your # of shares in a stock he reiterates might have made up the difference in performance. i highly doubt it but it's worth a shot from his backers' point of view.

his overall value added was (non weighted on average vs. all indices) -14.3275%. so listening to cramer instead of ivnesting an equal amt in each of the indices netted you about a 14% loss since 7/28/2005.

pretty VERY crappy!

Barron

PS- there is one line item i don't understand:

"(Gain/Loss after 1st day traded: 2.37%)" ... i don't know if that means on 7/29/2005 he made 2.37% or if the average gain immediately after he recommends a stock is 2.37% and then goes down or what? i dunno. doesn't really matter in terms of the above discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do those websites differentiate between the emphasis of his recommendations? The 2 or 3 stocks he starts the show off and features for 10-15 mins are very different from the 30 stocks in 2-3 mins lightning crap. He also sets no targets and horizons for the latter but simply buy/sell - so analyzing this via overall return by a certain date is obviously retarded.

Imagine going to one of the poker strategy forums and answering 30 posts in 3 mins and then your performance there being bunched together for evaluation with the serious posts you make in those forums.

And in general, there are definitely ways to make money off the impact of the recommendations(rather than recommendations themselves), but they are close to complexity as other strategies that make money and require similar levels of understanding.

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://yourmoneywatch.com/index.php?...ory&amp;year=0

[/ QUOTE ]

well obviously nothing is conclusive because of the way the study was done...

...BUT, it is pretty clear that if you don't get a strength signal from him (i.e. you simply buy X# of shares of a stock when he tells you to) then you might as well just put your money in an index fund.

he loses the diversification argument too since he had more stock recommendations than any of the indices have members (save Russell, which has like &gt;4000 IIRC).

one thing i don't know is if he comes back and says to sell a stock he previously said buy, is that included in the yourmoneywatch.com stats? if not, that is pretty significant, if it does, then his record is pretty crappy. one, provable but hard to get at, argument against this is that the #s do not include "buy re-iterations." so a simple strategy of doubling your # of shares in a stock he reiterates might have made up the difference in performance. i highly doubt it but it's worth a shot from his backers' point of view.

his overall value added was (non weighted on average vs. all indices) -14.3275%. so listening to cramer instead of ivnesting an equal amt in each of the indices netted you about a 14% loss since 7/28/2005.

pretty VERY crappy!

Barron

PS- there is one line item i don't understand:

"(Gain/Loss after 1st day traded: 2.37%)" ... i don't know if that means on 7/29/2005 he made 2.37% or if the average gain immediately after he recommends a stock is 2.37% and then goes down or what? i dunno. doesn't really matter in terms of the above discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do those websites differentiate between the emphasis of his recommendations? The 2 or 3 stocks he starts the show off and features for 10-15 mins are very different from the 30 stocks in 2-3 mins lightning crap. He also sets no targets and horizons for the latter but simply buy/sell - so analyzing this via overall return by a certain date is obviously retarded.

Imagine going to one of the poker strategy forums and answering 30 posts in 3 mins and then your performance there being bunched together for evaluation with the serious posts you make in those forums.

And in general, there are definitely ways to make money off the impact of the recommendations(rather than recommendations themselves), but they are close to complexity as other strategies that make money and require similar levels of understanding.

[/ QUOTE ]

good points, but they are all covered in the post you quoted &amp; the subsequent one i made about profiting from cramer.

1) no strength signal
2) no sell included
3) possible to make money from recommendations by studying what effect they have on the mkt. hard to do, just like any trading strategy.

Barron

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

Yourmoneywatch.com does record the performance of stocks that are sold. If Cramer re-recommends the stock, it is considered a new recommendation &amp; is counted in the performance numbers (all prior trades/comments are shown under the ticker for reference - use Search by Symbol to see them). The scoreboards include only new recommedations &amp; not reiterations. However, on our new "Major Buy Reiterations" page we calculate the performance of the reits since the date of the reit to present.

The "Gain/Loss After 1st Day Traded" is the average gain/loss from all stock recommendations from their closing price the day before the recommendation to the close on the next trading day. It is an attempt to see the possible Cramer Effect" on these stocks. The "next day close" can also be seen in the archived comments/performance for each recommendation.

If you have any other questions, please use the "Feedback" link on the site.

Editor,
yourmoneywatch.com

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cramer will sometimes hype a complete turd. This is a beauty short if you can research it quickly enough and smoke it out. He often does little or no research on his pumps. Or sometimes he knows he's hyping crap, but he's got friends that are stuck, and he tries to bail them out. Cramerplays can be profitable if you are quick.


[/ QUOTE ]

is this for real?

Re: does cramer make the stock market move?
 

I seriously doubt it. He had a great record in his hedge fund, so he obviously knows how to pick stocks. He also must have made a fair amount of money through it, so I doubt he would risk throwing it all away if he got caught pumping and dumping stocks for friends. Obviously some of his picks can be very wrong, and apparently his track record since starting the show is not very good, but I don't think he is acting unethically.