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-   -   AS-Something Game Thread (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=414483)

kyro 05-29-2007 06:57 AM

AS-Something Game Thread
 
Your players:

AS8
ATrebek
Boiler
DMK
Dustin
Eskimo
FCBL
Flsc
FMX
Herbie
Jack Bando
JaredL
JCool
Luckay
MDoranD
NichP
Patton
Spook
TheSmell
Tokyo
Zurvan

There are 21 of you. 5 of you are wolves. 13 of you are normal villagers. There is one seer who got a n0 peek, and a seer who did not get a n0 peek, but will get one every other day hereafter.

One of you is our beloved Bobo. Bobo has a special win condition. That win condition is...

Well let's face it. Nobody really knows what's going on in Bobo's head. Only Bobo knows.

If peeked by the seer, Bobo will be revealed as villager. Upon death/leaving the game, he will be revealed as Bobo.

Day will begin as close to 8:00AM as possible every morning, and will fall at 10:00pm every evening. If there is a majority at any time, you must cease posting.

I will modkill as I see fit. Do not piss me off. Just play the game.

It is still NIGHT

kyro 05-29-2007 07:36 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Couple things....

I will not be near a computer from 3:30-nightfall. I'll be at the Red Sox game tonight and will not be able to countif/call night. I'm going to check with KM to see if she can help me out for today. If anybody can countif for the morning/early afternoon, I'd really appreciate it. I'll pop in around noonish to answer any questions and what not.

kyro 05-29-2007 07:36 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
IT IS DAY. HAVE AT IT.

fmxda 05-29-2007 07:42 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
ASPoker8

kyro 05-29-2007 07:46 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
KM won't be able to help me out today so if any non-player can help me mod for today, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks.

FCBLComish 05-29-2007 07:46 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Good morning. I just came home from the b+m. They beat me up. I am going to sleep. There should be a few hundred posts by the time I wake up.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 05-29-2007 07:50 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Day 1 Post.

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 07:52 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
** STRATEGY POST THAT EVERYRONE CAN AGREE TO **

Seer WITH the Night 0 Peek:

Peek from this List:

AS8
ATrebek
Boiler
DMK
Dustin
Eskimo
FCBL
Flsc
FMX
Herbie
Jack Bando

Seer WITHOUT the Night 0 Peek:

Peek from This List:

JaredL
JCool
Luckay
MDoranD
NichP
Patton
Spook
TheSmell
Tokyo
Zurvan


It doesn't matter if the seer with the night 0 peek already peeked one from the bottom side, it just means at that at most, one peek will be duplicated.

Stick with your peek side!

** STRATEGY POST THAT EVERYRONE CAN AGREE TO **

chuckleslovakian 05-29-2007 07:52 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
kyro,

I can probably help out

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 07:54 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Speculation about the BobO role:

Jester? No, that would be too easy?
Special win condition? This means BobO is some sort of neutral, probably doesn't win with either village or wolves. Probably will do something anti-village in order to achieve this win condition.

Knows the wolves, has to try to get certain villagers lynched? Has to fake seer?

Anyways, that's all I've got...

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 05-29-2007 07:56 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Im guessing like 5 people are Bobo's and they will all counterclaim each other for hilarity.

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 08:00 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
** DARING PLAN **

The following people nearly invariably get lynched by must-lynch (unless they're wolves) and don't get eaten much as villagers. They are also hard to read (debatable):

Eskimo
FMX
Luckay
NichP
Patton
Spook

Therefore, if we had to lynch RIGHT NOW, PERIOD, without ANY sort of read at all, it should be one of those lynched. Extrapolating this slightly, it means that at the end of day 1, all of the above people are above average candidates for lynching.


Summary: On day 1, a good goal is to lynch someone who generally gets lynched by must-lynch and gets eaten a below-average number of times. See list of six above.

** DARING PLAN **


Let me fire this one off:
Lynch Nicholasp

btw, if we want to bandwagon nich, early in the day is the only kosher time to do it, so let's get it started right away

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 05-29-2007 08:02 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
luckay: ive been lynched once out of about 30 or so games. (actually twice but i refuse to count the one that i got lynched day 1 as an ia)

Patton and spook also regularly make end games.

where the hell did you get that list?

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 08:03 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
** REVOLUTIONIZING DAY ONE POSTS AND VOTES **

[ QUOTE ]
ASPoker8

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an atrocious first post because: It is a random vote with NEGATIVE EV implications, because ASPoker is above average easy enough to read. Also, he gets eaten an above average amount of times.

** IMPROVING THE WEREWOLF GAME OF VILLAGERS ACROSS POG **

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 08:04 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
luckay: ive been lynched once out of about 30 or so games. (actually twice but i refuse to count the one that i got lynched day 1 as an ia)

Patton and spook also regularly make end games.

where the hell did you get that list?

[/ QUOTE ]

In long games? Seriously?
I disagree, though my memory is not the best, and my memory is also somewhat selective and biased

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 05-29-2007 08:05 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
You disagree with what? you just picked random names didnt you?

flsc 05-29-2007 08:10 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Just checking in...
I will vote later on today.

fmxda 05-29-2007 08:10 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Seer without n0 peek gets half as many peeks so list should be divided 2:1

Luckay, that strategy with the list of 6 players omits the possibility that they might be better than average wolf-finders, or good at endgames (not saying they are, and especially not because I'm on the list [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Actually if I had to lynch right now with no information I'd go with a low content poster like AS8 or FCBL, or an unknown like ATrebek, flsc, or TheSmell.

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 08:12 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
You disagree with what? you just picked random names didnt you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't pick random names. I can expand my list to explain why these people stuck out in particular...


READABLE (need to work on their wolf game)
========
ATrebek
Dustin
FCBL
Flsc
JaredL
JCool
Zurvan


WOLF BAIT
=========
AS8
Boiler
DMK
Herbie
MDoranD


THE REST
========
Eskimo
FMX
Jack Bando
Luckay
NichP
Patton
Spook
TheSmell
Tokyo


I added smell, tokyo, and jack bando(!!) on there because on reflection and category sorting, I couldn't really place those 3 in categories either

and yes, I realize that these are all extremely broad sweeping generalizations and that people's wolf games evolve and improve over time. But come on, you have to admit: there is at least one person on POG that you would HATE to see get lynched on day 1, if you're a villager, because you "KNOW" you can read them. It varies for everyone. But it's there.

So I'm just taking this to the next logical conclusion: We should lynch one of those 9 today, in a completely neutral situation with no reads at all -- because, it is likely that they WILL be lynched BY must lynch. Which, if we take "Day 1" to its next logical conclusion, means that if we get it over with on day 1, then that's great!


Okay guys, this was all pretty extreme philosophy, Zurvan / MDD is going to come in here and call all this rambling "complete garbage", Kyro is doing the face-in-palm thing, but whatever

I'm brave enough to get this out in the open

fmxda 05-29-2007 08:14 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
It is a random vote with NEGATIVE EV implications, because ASPoker is above average easy enough to read. Also, he gets eaten an above average amount of times.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm not sure when first votes EVER had EV implications... but I disagree with your approach that we should lynch people who are hard to read. I think the criteria should be more of a "how helpful they are as a villager" vs "how deadly they are as a wolf" metric. Your ability to read them is just variance IMO (of course reducing variance is always good if possible).

fmxda 05-29-2007 08:16 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Damnit I have a seven page paper due by 5pm. This thread is going to kill my productivity =x

You guys think I have the willpower to not look at this thread ever again until 5pm?? Somehow I doubt it

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 08:18 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think the criteria should be more of a "how helpful they are as a villager" vs "how deadly they are as a wolf" metric.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. The criteria should basically boil down to:


On day 1:

* Don't lynch very helpful villagers
* Don't lynch people the village, in general, can read
* Don't lynch people who commonly die in seer hunts by wolves

* DO lynch people who aren't readable and don't get eaten often


How deadly someone is as a wolf should not play into the calculation (because it's too hard)


In other news, this got me thinking: If everyone would just say "Okay guys, I can read this particular guy like 100%. If he's a villager or a wolf, I'll know" and we got a mass buddy system going, we could just lynch the odd-men out, then we could lynch everyone who's wrong about their buddy

//end crazy theory

LuckayLuck 05-29-2007 08:20 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
ok guys, I need to go to sleep before the birds start chirping. Because when the birds start chirping, going to sleep is hard.

I'll be back around 6 PM EST! 'Holla!
I hope there's a bandwagon on Nich when I get back!

fmxda 05-29-2007 08:23 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
If who you want to survive is a group of villagers who can read each other better than average, then yes I agree.

That involves lynching people who are not good at reading as a villager, or those who are good at faking a good village game.

If you have trouble reading these people maybe you should be the one lynched [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Zurvan 05-29-2007 08:23 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]


Okay guys, this was all pretty extreme philosophy, Zurvan / MDD is going to come in here and call all this rambling "complete garbage", Kyro is doing the face-in-palm thing, but whatever


[/ QUOTE ]

I have a few good FYP's here, but they probably aren't necessary. Hell, I don't even have to say most of what I'm thinking, Luckay took care of it for me.

fmxda 05-29-2007 08:28 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
By the way, the real lists the seers should pick out of:

n0, n1, n2... Seer:
AS8
ATrebek
Boiler
DMK
Dustin
Eskimo
FCBL
Flsc
FMX
Herbie
Jack Bando
JaredL
JCool
Luckay

n1, n3, n5... Seer:
MDoranD
NichP
Patton
Spook
TheSmell
Tokyo
Zurvan

flsc 05-29-2007 08:29 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]


READABLE (need to work on their wolf game)
========
...
Flsc
...


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Do you just assume I'm easy to read because I'm a newbie?

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 05-29-2007 08:37 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


READABLE (need to work on their wolf game)
========
...
Flsc
...


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Do you just assume I'm easy to read because I'm a newbie?

[/ QUOTE ]

he just picked random names.... i wouldnt worry about it

kyro 05-29-2007 09:11 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
MOD NOTE:

Sorry, should have put something in this thread as well.

If you did not get a PM, you are a villager.

HerbieGRD 05-29-2007 09:36 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Sup thread?

Vote Zurvan

JCool 05-29-2007 09:49 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Sup thread. This is my first long game ever. Thank god I'm a villager.

Metagame note: today is my first day back at work after two weeks off for surgery, so I'm prolly not going to have a huge amount of time to devote to this thread today, but I'll try to check in and vote at lunch.

Metagame Note 2: To you FPSers out there who clutter these threads up with hundreds of posts a day, if you have anything important to say, please say it in your first 15 or so posts of the day, as I'm likely to tune you out thereafter.

JCool 05-29-2007 09:52 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Also let me weigh in on this dual seer thing. I like fmx's approach better than luckay's. The nightly seer is twice as valuable to us as the everyother night seer, so he should be given a larger pool to peak from, as game conditions (lynches, nightkills, cleared villagers, obvious wolves, etc.), start eating through the respective lists.

HerbieGRD 05-29-2007 09:59 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Metagame Note 2: To you FPSers out there who clutter these threads up with hundreds of posts a day

[/ QUOTE ]
That isn't FPS

JCool 05-29-2007 09:59 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Also, luckay's "DARING PLAN" is the kind of FPSing that really irritates me. Just read the thread today and lynch the likeliest wolf suspects based upon the information they provide in the thread today.

HerbieGRD 05-29-2007 10:00 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
also jcool is now on the "do not trust" list until further notice.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 05-29-2007 10:02 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
Jcool not changing til one of us is dead.

HerbieGRD 05-29-2007 10:11 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
Jcool not changing til one of us is dead.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good morning Eskimo!

Nicholasp27 05-29-2007 10:17 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
a) nice to know luckay doesn't consider me a helpful villager

b) i have survived to endgame numerous times in long games

Nicholasp27 05-29-2007 10:20 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
btw, if luckay shows up wolf, it's likely that the bottom half of the list is more wolf-heavy than the top half, as the bottom half would only get seen from every other night

SEERS, use fmx's list

luckay coulda overlooked that fact, but if he's a wolf, some % has to be added to those bottom names

kyro 05-29-2007 10:28 AM

Re: AS-Something Game Thread
 
MOD NOTE:

Seer 1 gets a peek every night starting with n0.
Seer 2 gets a peek every OTHER night starting with n1.


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