Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
Few notes: Me and the opponent have been involved in a lot of hands so far, with me coming out ahead maybe 7k in all of them combined. He seems rather aggressive and has stats of 25 20 with aggression of 4 after about 60 hands and seemingly bluffed against me once the entire hand because on the river he folded to my allin which was about 1/6th of the entire pot. If you bet flop, what's your plan if checkraised? If called what turns do you bet/check? PokerStars Game #10134898907: Tournament #50506312, $500+$30 Seat 1: BackDoorovic (10900 in chips) Seat 2: shadowlive (9750 in chips) Seat 3: blrmac (4700 in chips) Seat 4: curtains (17850 in chips) Seat 5: simmsux (11950 in chips) Seat 6: Dukus (9775 in chips) Seat 7: NemoStars22 (19025 in chips) Seat 8: Chong94 (7775 in chips) Seat 9: mcfin21 (10225 in chips) simmsux: posts small blind 150 Dukus: posts big blind 300 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to curtains [9d Qd] 6 folds curtains: raises 600 to 900 simmsux: calls 750 Dukus: folds *** FLOP *** [9s 7s 4s] simmsux: checks curtains: |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
I'm not sure if our hand can stand a checkraise however we took the lead in the hand so I say we fire through here and bet. I think this guy is solid so I don't think he'd checkraise here without a hand that has us smoked so yeah I'm dumping it if he raises us. I'd pretty much bet any non spade turn, not sure how correct that is. If the turn is a 4 of diamonds I'm not sure why we can't get value out of our hand.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
The flop is monochrome low cards, which presumbly missed your broadway cards, so you are likely to be checkraised if you bet. You are also likely to be ahead. So I think betting and folding to a checkraise is a bad approach.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
Also may I add:
Yay for this forum. I didn't think having a high stakes MTT forum was so important, but now that I see it in action, it's the best idea ever! |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
[ QUOTE ]
The flop is monochrome low cards, which presumbly missed your broadway cards, so you are likely to be checkraised if you bet. You are also likely to be ahead. So I think betting and folding to a checkraise is a bad approach. [/ QUOTE ] agreed! |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
Ok so how do you plan to play it?
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
this seems like a really easy flop bet, where you 3-bet all in if he checkraises/call a shove if he shoves. i'd probably bet 1550 or so. if you've really been battling with him a lot, Q9o is pretty much the nuts with stacks this shallow.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
i probably bet the flop and get it in if raised. i can see some value to checking behind, and if it wasn't an aggressive guy that you've been beating and who should be getting tired of losing to you, i think i'd like that better.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
The good thing is that he is less likely to pure check-raise bluff you here because it commits him when he could be in real bad shape.
His c/r (or check/shove) will commit himself to the pot with the hands he might be semi-bluffing with (AsTc and KsQd type hands), and you’ll be a small dog to those hands generally. The hands he will c/r for value (77 and TT or 8h8s) you will usually be a 4-to-1 dog against (sometimes close to dead) or a small favorite. The pot size on the flop represents 1/5th of his stack so its unlikely he will fold any better hands to a PSB (maybe TT w/ no spade). However, I think you should bet the potsize because he should be reluctant to c/r here with his hands that completely missed. Also, because of his stack size, against his c/r’ing range you are almost getting the right money to call off. Plus I think giving a free card is a little too dangerous given the 9-high board. I think you take it down often enough to be profitable considering the pot > 10% of your stack. If, when he check-raises you, he holds: A Set = 15% Semi-Bluff with Two Overs: 60% Overpair = 10% A PP with a spade = 10% Made Flush = 5% Your equity ~ 38% Run through PokerStove: Board: 9s 7s 4s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 34.176% 33.69% 00.48% 15677 225.00 { Qd9d } Hand 1: 65.824% 65.34% 00.48% 30403 225.00 { JcJs, JhJs, TT-99, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s, 77, 44, AsTs, As8s, KsQs, KsJs, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AcJs, AdJs, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AcTs, AdTs, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh } So, if he c’r’s you, you will be a slight money dog to his range getting 1.45-to-1, but I think you take it down enough times to compensate for that. Also, if he is super-aggro and puts you on being super-aggro, he will bluff-raise you here some % of the time, putting you to the test on the 3-flush board, thus increasing your equity more than these rough estimates. Can anyone support the alternative line of checking behind to deflate his semi-bluff hands which he might then lead with on the turn – then you can raise? Or does this just give up too much immediate value? |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
I think you will see a pure checkraise bluff here a lot from a good aggressive player. Often the checkraiser will have a pair or draw. This looks like a flop a preflop raiser would not be comfortable with, so I would expect a bluff.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
In the end I checked, but while doing so was almost certain that it couldn't be the right play.
I believe that it's correct to bet/3 bet allin, however annoying it might be. I felt in pretty good shape at the table in general with one or two clear weak spots, so I didn't want to overcommitt myself in such a pot but it probably crossed the line into being too wimpy. I basically knew that if I bet and he raised, I would simply have to put all my chips in given the history, but wasn't super excited to do so. Does anyone think that there is real value in checking? What if you are playing at a table where there are 3-4 really terrible players with decent stacks? (at this table there was only 1 really terrible player and maybe one sort of bad player) Anyway I checked, turn was a seven, he bet 1500 I called, river was a nine, he checked I bet 2400 he folded. |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
I would probably check, but I don't know if it's right. When you check, you risk someone drawing out with a flush.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
[ QUOTE ]
In the end I checked, but while doing so was almost certain that it couldn't be the right play. I believe that it's correct to bet/3 bet allin, however annoying it might be. [/ QUOTE ] the trouble is that you're basically a small dog to the 'big spade + 2 overs' range and a big one to all his real hands. so, yeah, checking sucks, but bet 3 betting isn't any better if he even remotely pot commits himself, and bet folding is really bad. IMO it's between checking and bet/calling (and hoping an A, K, or spade doesn't hit on the turn) and I'd rather just check and then raise any blank turn card. btw this is somewhat tainted by him being the SB and having a tighter call range than the BB. |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
curtains, i think you played it well for a lot of reasons. u can't likely get it in on the flop as a big favorite, and even if u do u were likely even money or a dog vs. his entire range. and giving a free card is such a disaster because it disguises our hand and it's not like we have a monster here. i also think bet/folding flop is fine because he will def call w/ worse and if we think he is c/r'ing light we can just call and felt a blank/favorable turn. i think unless he is c/r'ing very very light only then b3b'ing ai is better than the other lines i suggested.
|
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
Hmm maybe I'm not so terrible after all, but really seemed like it was too weak. At least thats what the mighty NewtBuggs attempted to convince me of. |
Re: Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal
heh theres 3 spades on the board and your dealing with an opponent who is solid and not v tricky w my experience with 1 pair. i think you played it fine
|
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:02 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.