Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

I'd been @ the same table as Aaron Bartley for about an hour. Right when he got to the table, I 3-bet him and he promptly 4-bet AI in a button/sb confrontation. So yea, I pretty much left him alone after that. He's been calling his fair share of raises, and 3-bet once or twice.

My image: I'd been playing fairly tight and I hadn't 3-bet anyone since that one time I 3-bet Bartley about an hour ago. I just won a medium sized pot w/ a preflop raise, followed by a flop c/r w/ KhJh on a Qxx two heart board.

UTG+1 is new to table. The coldcaller is pretty bad and calls raises somewhat loosely. I could see the coldcaller holding any pair, some of the better suited broadway hands, AJ+.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2485931861: $28,000 Guarantee (18339097), Table 17 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:13:40 ET - 2007/05/22
Seat 1: bballer88 (13,851)
Seat 2: StoneEdge (6,155)
Seat 3: eazy on the ice (19,135)
Seat 4: soggy dogg (15,984)
Seat 5: shanekd (12,321)
Seat 6: Nidaba (21,344)
Seat 7: confiteor (21,215)
Seat 8: Aaron Bartley (30,745)
Seat 9: yoren8 (26,020)
bballer88 antes 75
StoneEdge antes 75
eazy on the ice antes 75
soggy dogg antes 75
shanekd antes 75
Nidaba antes 75
confiteor antes 75
Aaron Bartley antes 75
yoren8 antes 75
StoneEdge posts the small blind of 300
eazy on the ice posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
soggy dogg folds
shanekd raises to 1,600
Nidaba folds
confiteor calls 1,600
Nidaba is sitting out
Aaron Bartley raises to 7,975
yoren8 raises to 25,945, and is all in

I moved in within the first 5 seconds. Thoughts?

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

I don't play online, but What do you put the original raiser and Aaron Bartley on? I don't like this play at all due to risk/reward ratio. But it is online so you'll probably suck out even if you do get instacalled by AA.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

I would fold. The raise was from early position and he reraised from CO. This is unlikely to be a squeeze play, and I think he has odds to call the push.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

Just to clarify, I am to bartley's direct left. I am in the cutoff seat. Bartley is in the hijack. I did not open this pot.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

While many players don't understand potodds, I still think that gambleAB isn't capable of making this play with an extremely wide range. Shane will be shoving on his 3-bet relatively frequently, and if confite shoves, he is getting good enough odds that he has to call. If both people were like 20k deep and he 3-bet to like 6k, a 4bet here would be more tempting.

But in reality, against any realistic range, he has to call this shove relatively wide just because of the odds he is given. I think plays like this are under-rated, and people need to use them more often, I just think that unless AB is 3betting a huge range(like all pairs etc), this can't be profitable.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

no me gusta. What betgo said I guess

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play online, but What do you put the original raiser and Aaron Bartley on? I don't like this play at all due to risk/reward ratio. But it is online so you'll probably suck out even if you do get instacalled by AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the kind of things we are trying to stay away from in this forum.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't play online, but What do you put the original raiser and Aaron Bartley on? I don't like this play at all due to risk/reward ratio. But it is online so you'll probably suck out even if you do get instacalled by AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the kind of things we are trying to stay away from in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
beat me to it

anyway, I'm kinda mixed on the play, because Bartley is definitely capable of pulling a squeeze and he likes to be aggressive preflop. That said, any legit hand he does it with is always calling you (I mean, there's a chance he 3-bets something like TT or even JJ and folds to a cold 4-bet, but I don't think it's especially likely).

I dunno... it can't be that bad. We're probably about 30% vs. Bartley's calling range, sooooo... someone more math-inclined than me should do the math on how often he has to fold to make this profitable.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. The raise was from early position and he reraised from CO. This is unlikely to be a squeeze play, and I think he has odds to call the push.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is something I've noticed people ignoring a lot lately in the strat forum... yeah some people 3bet light from all sorts of positions, but the vast majority of people, even those who 3bet light, never do it from co, especially vs a raise and a call

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

I don't like the play. While Bartley 3bets a decent amount and this looks like a squeeze I think he cold calls with most hands we beat. He likes to take flops and play in position a lot (ok he likes to CC OOP a lot too) so if he had a worse hand I think he's taking a flop here.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't play online, but What do you put the original raiser and Aaron Bartley on? I don't like this play at all due to risk/reward ratio. But it is online so you'll probably suck out even if you do get instacalled by AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are the kind of things we are trying to stay away from in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
beat me to it

[/ QUOTE ]

you guys are so polite, I'd just have said "ffs never post again".

as to the play, I see people do this sometimes but the reason I see it is because there's a showdown. I think most people greatly overestimate the amount of spots where something like this is okay and/or underestimate how hard it is for people to fold any sort of decent hand.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

I've seen him make way too many loose/bad calls of shoves etc before which is why I hate the move cuz he's not folding his 55 or AJ if he has it.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

Your read doesn't make it sound like he 3-bets much, and even if he does, this isn't a spot where people 3-bet too much since he's in CO and raiser is UTG+1 9-handed. A really small % of people will 3-bet anywhere near light there.

Plus he's getting good odds.

Anyway, guess I'm just echoing what others have said. This forum is awesome.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

Some numbers.

There is 1575 in blinds + antes.

(1) If all 3 fold, I win 1600+1600+1575+7975 = <u>12750</u>

(2) If UTG+1 folds / coldcaller folds / Bartley calls...

Assuming Bartley calls w/ JJ+/AK, I'll have roughly 30% equity vs. his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.168% 69.21% 00.96% 156425952 2171364.00 { JJ+, AKs,

AKo }
Hand 1: 29.832% 28.87% 00.96% 65255448 2171364.00 { ATs }

(.702-.298)(-25945) + (.298)(1600+1600+1575) = <u>-9059</u>

(3) If UTG+1 calls / coldcaller folds / Bartley folds...

Assuming UTG+1 calls w/ JJ+/AK, again I have ~30% equity vs. his range.

(.702-.298)(-12246) + .298(11150) = <u>-1625</u>

(4) If UTG+1 calls / coldcaller folds / Bartley calls...

Assuming UTG+1 calls w/ JJ+/AK and Bartley overcalls w/ QQ+/AKs.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.658% 30.33% 02.33% 718310136 55259516.00 { JJ+, AKs,

AKo }
Hand 1: 48.040% 45.77% 02.27% 1084082844 53832248.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 19.301% 18.86% 00.44% 446767260 10410908.00 { ATs }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.266% 70.68% 00.59% 87134700 725844.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 28.734% 28.15% 00.59% 34699500 725844.00 { ATs }

The main pot would be 39913. The side pot would be 27398.

.193(39913) + .287(27398) - 25945 = <u>-10379</u>

I ignored when coldcaller calls or when Button/SB/BB calls to simplify things for now.

a(1) + b(2) + c(3) + d(4) = cEV of play, where a/b/c/d are chance of each outcome and a+b+c+d = 1.

I will finish this later assuming a couple different opening ranges for UTG+1 and a couple different squeezing ranges for Bartley.

However, just looking @ this, if "a", % of time all 3 fold, is &gt; 45%, this is a +cEV play.

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen him make way too many loose/bad calls of shoves etc before which is why I hate the move cuz he's not folding his 55 or AJ if he has it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's not folding 55/AJ, then this move sucks a lot. You're sure about that?

Re: Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the move cuz he's not folding his 55 or AJ if he has it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's not folding 55/AJ, then this move sucks a lot. You're sure about that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading comprehension FTW