Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

Hi Everyone,

Most of you can probably answer this in 2 seconds, so please bear with me and do so; I'm trying to learn.

Maybe 2000 players left, so we're at the bottom ITM rung with no bubble nearby. Blinds I think were 1k/2k or 800/1600, but I know my M was <9 and I had 52K (6K in the pot w/antes), which was about 5K above par.

I just got moved to a new table, and there were a few stacks of more than 100K. I've folded my first 3 hands, and the table seems normal for this stage: on the tight side, with the bigger stacks taking turns pressuring the others. It's folded to me in the CO with 76s, and I shove. Behind me are average stacks which I cover slightly, except for the SB, who has ~120K and hasn't played a hand of the 3 that I've seen. Is this a normal shove with an M of 9, or is it moving too light when my Q is above 1? What if I had 99 there? What about ATo or 66?

Thanks in advance.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

really bad fold M is misconstrued a lot and you analyze the shove which Im sure some math guy could do and your shove vs their calling ranges and you will be surprised what a -ev number it ends up to be with such a large stack. With 99 and your stack you should be 2.5-3xing whatever you think induces the largest shoving range 99 is a monster in LP in tourneys be happy to get your stack in if MP2 or later everytime with 99. I prob raise/call with A10o and 66 if the shover is SB or BB. fold to the others.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

Hi shaundeeb,

Did you mean, "Really bad. Fold."? Because it looks like you said my fold was really bad, though I in fact shoved. I assume you meant that the shove was really bad. Does that mean that there really are no hands you want to do this with when your stack is as big as mine, relative to the blinds, looking to get mostly folds? It definitely occurred to me that the antes skewed the pot a lot and that I was making an oversized raise for just 2K blinds, but then I figured, "They still need a pretty big hand (TT+, AK I thought) to call me here, and I'll be 25-30% to win if they do wake up with one of those." What do you think?

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

sorry cero I am known for horrible english yes I meant the shove is really bad just fold. Their calling range is much wider then that in this game people are smarter and adjust to opening raises better and more frequent. They know you are never doing that with AA/KK and thus their calling range widens and it should. I think very few online players are ever folding 88/99 or AQs to your shove in your spot.

I don't have pokerstove that works anymore but even against that tight of a range I'd be surprised if you ran the numbers and that was a +EV shove. I understand why you are shoving and it's a fine shove with 8-12bbs but you are just too deep because their calling ranges aren't narrowing enough for it to be good.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

Well you can just make a normalish raise and safely fold to a reraise. That's probably what I'd do in this spot. I definitely wouldn't push for over 20x the BB.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

This is very bad. If the table is tight, just make it 2.5x blind. You should take it down fairly often and get the same reward with much less risk. At this stage in an online tournament a 25-30bb stack is huge. You don't need to be operating in panic mode until you get inside 10bbs.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

OK I did some math myself, and it seems like if they call me with 6% of hands (88+,AQo+,AJs),I lose ~700 chips per time I do this. My assumptions: I win 6K 83% of the time that none of the 3 players to act pick up a top 6% hand, and I have 30% equity when they do. I guess I didn't account for when 2 players get in vs. me, but it seems like that would help me more than hurt me. I can't see them calling much looser than this, so it seems like somewhere between a slight loser and a pretty sizeable winner. Are my assumptions about their calling ranges way off? Or did I make a math error below?

Here's the math as simply as I can figure it:
If they call 3.5% (TT+, AK): (.90*6000)+(.028 *58000)+(.072*-52000)=3280.
If they call 6% (88+,AJs+, AQo+): (.83*6000)+(.05*58000)+(.165*-52000)=-700

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well you can just make a normalish raise and safely fold to a reraise. That's probably what I'd do in this spot. I definitely wouldn't push for over 20x the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK I did some math myself, and it seems like if they call me with 6% of hands (88+,AQo+,AJs),I lose ~700 chips per time I do this. My assumptions: I win 6K 83% of the time that none of the 3 players to act pick up a top 6% hand, and I have 30% equity when they do. I guess I didn't account for when 2 players get in vs. me, but it seems like that would help me more than hurt me. I can't see them calling much looser than this, so it seems like somewhere between a slight loser and a pretty sizeable winner. Are my assumptions about their calling ranges way off? Or did I make a math error below?

Here's the math as simply as I can figure it:
If they call 3.5% (TT+, AK): (.90*6000)+(.028 *58000)+(.072*-52000)=3280.
If they call 6% (88+,AJs+, AQo+): (.83*6000)+(.05*58000)+(.165*-52000)=-700

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling range (top 6%) seems fine. Too lazy to do the math atm, seems fine at first glance.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

In my opinion "M" is the most worthless and overused thing ever. You are much better off just using how many big blinds you have. It's basically never correct to open shove 20bbs in a regular mtt. raise 2-3x and open fold are much better than shove imo.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

M is of course stupid. Before every tournament look at the antes, and then make a chart for what the actual blinds are for each level. Then assume you have that many BB's.

So for the 100-200/ ante 25 level, blinds are basically 175/350. It's a billion times easier than using "M"

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

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Well you can just make a normalish raise and safely fold to a reraise. That's probably what I'd do in this spot. I definitely wouldn't push for over 20x the BB.

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This is obv right.

Even if you come up with a range for your opponents where pushing is profitable, most likely (but obv this is much harder to calculate), raising to some normal amount and folding to a reraise of a normal amount is almost certainly going to be more profitable than pushing.

You want to be aggressive here, but not reckless.

Don't worry about M, worry about having a playable stack that still gives you some options to play. Usually a 12-15xBB stack gives you options to steal or resteal preflop, or stop and go pre/postflop. That's "enough" moves to keep you afloat. With like 25xBB, this is just silly even if your M is under 10.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

horrrrrrrrrrible shove. standard open ftw

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

This is one of those OPs the invite only rule is designed to keep out of HSNL.

First of all, if there is 6K is the pot on Stars, the blinds must be 1500/3000. You probably had 17xBB, which makes the push not as bad as it seemed initially.

Second of all, there is nothing wrong with M. However, an M of 9 sounds small, but it doesn't mean you should start open pushing any two. People are always justifying donk pushes like this by saying they have an M of 9 or whatever.

Open pushing here with 17xBB is playable with AJ or 33 or something, but not with 76s. Folding or raising 3xBB or less (and obviously folding to a reraise) are both playable.

Limping may be playable depending on your style and the players to act. Your stack size is better for limping than raising, but CO is not good position for a limp.

I would probably fold, since the play figures to be loose with the cash bubble being cleared fairly recently, and your stack size makes it easy for people to resteal on you.

In summary fold > small raise > limp > large raise > push. It is pretty close whether to raise or fold, but pushing is really bad.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

I dunno if I'd say fold>small raise here betgo, but yeah otherwise you're spot on with everything else you said

Pushing here is just about god awful

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

folding or raising both okay, of course depends on the opponents and what they are doing.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

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folding or raising both okay, of course depends on the opponents and what they are doing.

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Word, 17 BB is right about the edge where I still raise and fold, folding costs you 15% of your stack and obviously sucks. At the same time, open folding will probably cost you more equity IF the players behind you aren't very aggressive. If they are, chuck it.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those OPs the invite only rule is designed to keep out of HSNL.

First of all, if there is 6K is the pot on Stars, the blinds must be 1500/3000. You probably had 17xBB, which makes the push not as bad as it seemed initially.

Second of all, there is nothing wrong with M. However, an M of 9 sounds small, but it doesn't mean you should start open pushing any two. People are always justifying donk pushes like this by saying they have an M of 9 or whatever.

Open pushing here with 17xBB is playable with AJ or 33 or something, but not with 76s. Folding or raising 3xBB or less (and obviously folding to a reraise) are both playable.

Limping may be playable depending on your style and the players to act. Your stack size is better for limping than raising, but CO is not good position for a limp.

I would probably fold, since the play figures to be loose with the cash bubble being cleared fairly recently, and your stack size makes it easy for people to resteal on you.

In summary fold > small raise > limp > large raise > push. It is pretty close whether to raise or fold, but pushing is really bad.

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OK Good post. Your comment about "invite-only HSNL" is confusing: are you saying that having an invite-only forum is a bad idea because honest newb questions need a place to go? If so, it's a bad analogy, since there are Micro-stakes, SSNL, and MSNL which can accomodate them. I looked for a beginner's MTT forum, but there appears to be none. Or maybe you're just being a dick and calling me a newb. In any case, you answered my question, so thank you.

My understanding of Harrington's approach is that as your M dwindles to below 10, you need to make these kinds of shoves to keep from dipping down to 5 or so. Folded to me in the CO with stacks that can all be eliminated or severely damaged when I shove seems like a spot to try it. These pushes feel weird to me, because I play cash NL, but I make them because of HoH. Many of you are saying this is a terrible push, but of course I don't know anyone's names except for Curtains and betgo, who seem to disagree somewhat (though both said the push was bad). Can you point me to a thread about "M" and why it should or shouldn't be used to make decisions like this?

Finally, I didn't open-push with "any 2." You said pushing is fine there with AJ or 33, but not 76s. All 3 of those hands have similar equity vs. the two calling ranges I listed. AJ and 76s are basically the same (~30%), while 33 is slightly better vs. the looser range (34%). Is this just a mistake on your part, or are those differences (between 33 and the other 2 hands) significant?

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

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My understanding of Harrington's approach is that as your M dwindles to below 10, you need to make these kinds of shoves to keep from dipping down to 5 or so ...I make them because of HoH. Many of you are saying this is a terrible push...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most experienced tourney players agree that pushing with M of 9 is really bad when an average stack fairly small. HoH just gives a terrible advice in this issue. Pushing with M9 might be ok, if an average stack is something like M50 or M60.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My understanding of Harrington's approach is that as your M dwindles to below 10, you need to make these kinds of shoves to keep from dipping down to 5 or so ...I make them because of HoH. Many of you are saying this is a terrible push...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most experienced tourney players agree that pushing with M of 9 is really bad when an average stack fairly small. HoH just gives a terrible advice in this issue. Pushing with M9 might be ok, if an average stack is something like M50 or M60.

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Thank you! That's kind of what I was wondering. Results were I ran into QQ from the SB's big stack, who just called, and then the BB called off his 50K stack with ATo. I flopped a straight flush draw, (T93) and lost.

At the time, I thought the calling ranges were tighter than they obviously were (given the ATo overcall), so clearly that was bad judgement. Thanks for everyone's help.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

cero,

From posts in HSNL, you are good at poker.

Therefore, there is absolutely nothing of value in HOH that you didn't already understand, and anything you may have "learned" from that book would probably be best served forgotten.

If I had to calculate my M at any point in a tournament, it would probably take me about 2-3 minutes so that I could remember the formula. Honestly, it's that unimportant.

In time you'll come to learn when pushes are correct simply by feel, but until then, understand that if you are open-pushing a stack of over 12xbb in any weekly online tournament, there is a very, very good chance that you are making a mistake.

Also, betgo wasn't really insulting you. There will be a High Stakes MTT Forum, and there was talk of having it be invite-only. It was assumed most any HSNL poster who wanted to post a thread would be approved. Betgo was saying you are probably an example of one HSNLer who would not/should not be.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those OPs the invite only rule is designed to keep out of HSNL.

First of all, if there is 6K is the pot on Stars, the blinds must be 1500/3000. You probably had 17xBB, which makes the push not as bad as it seemed initially.

Second of all, there is nothing wrong with M. However, an M of 9 sounds small, but it doesn't mean you should start open pushing any two. People are always justifying donk pushes like this by saying they have an M of 9 or whatever.

Open pushing here with 17xBB is playable with AJ or 33 or something, but not with 76s. Folding or raising 3xBB or less (and obviously folding to a reraise) are both playable.

Limping may be playable depending on your style and the players to act. Your stack size is better for limping than raising, but CO is not good position for a limp.

I would probably fold, since the play figures to be loose with the cash bubble being cleared fairly recently, and your stack size makes it easy for people to resteal on you.

In summary fold > small raise > limp > large raise > push. It is pretty close whether to raise or fold, but pushing is really bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK Good post. Your comment about "invite-only HSNL" is confusing: are you saying that having an invite-only forum is a bad idea because honest newb questions need a place to go? If so, it's a bad analogy, since there are Micro-stakes, SSNL, and MSNL which can accomodate them. I looked for a beginner's MTT forum, but there appears to be none. Or maybe you're just being a dick and calling me a newb. In any case, you answered my question, so thank you.

My understanding of Harrington's approach is that as your M dwindles to below 10, you need to make these kinds of shoves to keep from dipping down to 5 or so. Folded to me in the CO with stacks that can all be eliminated or severely damaged when I shove seems like a spot to try it. These pushes feel weird to me, because I play cash NL, but I make them because of HoH. Many of you are saying this is a terrible push, but of course I don't know anyone's names except for Curtains and betgo, who seem to disagree somewhat (though both said the push was bad). Can you point me to a thread about "M" and why it should or shouldn't be used to make decisions like this?

Finally, I didn't open-push with "any 2." You said pushing is fine there with AJ or 33, but not 76s. All 3 of those hands have similar equity vs. the two calling ranges I listed. AJ and 76s are basically the same (~30%), while 33 is slightly better vs. the looser range (34%). Is this just a mistake on your part, or are those differences (between 33 and the other 2 hands) significant?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was against making HSMTT invitation only, but I thought your post was an example of a newb post from the sunday Million that making it invitation only was designed to keep out. I didn't know that you are a high stakes cash player. I speaking truthfully and somewhat humorously, but I can understand how you might take it as insulting.

76s has a much lower win percentage against a top 10% hand than 33 or AJo, which is why you can't overbet push it.

I don't know if you have been reading Harrington or Snyder. Snyder seems to advocate this kind of overbet push from CO. If you have more than 12xBB, you usually have better plays than an overbet push. Harrington advocates playing more loose/aggressive with an M of 9, but not overbet open pushing. I would reread HOH2 on this.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

890,398,080 games 0.005 secs 178,079,616,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.717% 33.46% 00.26% 297908568 2303656.00 { 76s }
Hand 1: 66.283% 66.02% 00.26% 587882200 2303656.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


---

2,157,503,040 games 0.005 secs 431,500,608,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.366% 38.27% 05.09% 825741456 109884162.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 56.634% 51.54% 05.09% 1111993260 109884162.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


---
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,335,597,120 games 0.005 secs 267,119,424,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.696% 40.38% 00.32% 539279664 4249278.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 59.304% 58.99% 00.32% 787818900 4249278.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

cero,
If you want to get better at pushbotting I suggest getting SNGPT. A good way to look at openpushing is if I open raise here can I fold to a shove profitably. If the answer is yes, than open folding or raising 2.5x is a much better play.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

make a standard raise as a steal fold if reraised you have enough chips to make a fold. if you had 16k then id shove and pray

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

Just open normal. Shoving with greater than ~12 BBs here is bad.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

Thanks very much everyone.

Re: Sunday Million Open Push; Standard or Retarded?
 

i think a normal 3x raise is more safe, and also look more like you actually have a hand. (all-in screams "please fold, please fold!"). I'm a bad player though.