AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

$215 25k. 150/300/25 Note pot is ~2600 on flop and villain has ~4500 left.

Hand #42568696-158 at Thu930pm25K-002 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Started at 18/May/07 00:04:03

hyeran kim is at seat 0 with 5520.
rockets_Ifold is at seat 1 with 13310.
PecosJeana is at seat 2 with 2900.
blury222 is at seat 3 with 13235.
JohnnyBax is at seat 4 with 6310.
Maria Nuccia is at seat 5 with 17755.
G S X R is at seat 6 with 5785.
RagnarPirate is at seat 7 with 11240.
Ulty_Dude is at seat 8 with 12975.
Tony Pisser is at seat 9 with 8125.
The button is at seat 0.

hyeran kim posts ante (25).
rockets_Ifold posts ante (25).
PecosJeana posts ante (25).
blury222 posts ante (25).
JohnnyBax posts ante (25).
Maria Nuccia posts ante (25).
G S X R posts ante (25).
RagnarPirate posts ante (25).
Ulty_Dude posts ante (25).
Tony Pisser posts ante (25).
PecosJeana posts the small blind of 150.
blury222 posts the big blind of 300.

hyeran kim: -- --
rockets_Ifold: -- --
PecosJeana: -- --
blury222: -- --
JohnnyBax: -- --
Maria Nuccia: -- --
G S X R: -- --
RagnarPirate: -- --
Ulty_Dude: -- --
Tony Pisser: Ah Qs

Pre-flop:

JohnnyBax folds. Maria Nuccia folds. G S X R folds.
RagnarPirate folds. Ulty_Dude folds. Tony Pisser
raises to 950. hyeran kim calls. rockets_Ifold
folds. PecosJeana folds. blury222 folds.

Flop (board: Tc Ks 9d):

What should I do?

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

I check. He cc 20% of his stack. A cbet will get a fold from smaller pairs, but I doubt he calls those pre. I expect him to shove pre with small pairs or fold.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

Bet 1500 & see how they react. I think you'd pick it up enough there to make it worthwhile.

If you're called & don't hit on the turn I'd be ready to give it up.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet 1500 & see how they react. I think you'd pick it up enough there to make it worthwhile.

If you're called & don't hit on the turn I'd be ready to give it up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Bet 1500? Did you note the stack and pot sizes?

edit: Let's be clear. Do you want to bet/fold here?

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

meh.

Check is prolly fine, depending on player, bet amount...
C/R may be sexy.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
meh.

Check is prolly fine, depending on player, bet amount...
C/R may be sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

well he has like no chips so maybenot.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

Either c/f or crai I'm not sure which though.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

Didn't factor in antes. I was assuming pot size was 2350 pre-flop. It's 2600, so 1500 wound need to be more like 1800.

Now that I've noticed he only has ~4600 after calling you pre-flop, betting 1800 commits you to calling a push anyways.

So you may as well just push it? I'm not particularly a fan of checking this flop, to be honest. Unless he's got a king, you're not in horrible shape & I think a lot of hands he's calling will fold this flop.

If he's got a jack you've got 2 overs + 10 for a straight - 10 outs twice isn't HORRIBLE. If he's got a king you're in worse shape obviously since the Q is gone.

I'm a low stakes amateur - feel free to tell me I'm wrong & I'll learn something! But that's probably how I'd play it.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

i c/f flop unless he bets super small and if the turn isn't gin i still check.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

this is a really weird pf call and makes me think big hands are for more likely than if he had like 2k more

c/r SEEMS sexy, but i can't think of any hands that call pf and then would b/f flop

so c/f

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

i'd eliminate crai as an option. i think he's too short stacked for this move to work.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

What do you guys do here if you are Nath and hold 77? This came a few hands after the above post, so blinds/antes are the same. Sorry I don't have full HH, but UB sucks and someone sent me this:

Pre-flop:

Tony Pisser raises to 925. hyeran kim folds.
rockets_Ifold folds. PecosJeana folds. blury222
folds. JohnnyBax goes all-in for 7260. Maria Nuccia
folds. G S X R folds. RagnarPirate folds.
Ulty_Dude folds. Tony Pisser...



Bax

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

fold very quick-like.

as much as we all disrespect nath's utg range, this is just horrific if you're actually shoving a range nath is anywhere near 40% vs

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

I c/f whether he has 5K, 10K or 20K...might be a leak but it can't possibly be that big. also I sometimes CR AK+ there.

also also, 77 goes bye bye.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
I c/f whether he has 5K, 10K or 20K...might be a leak but it can't possibly be that big. also I sometimes CR AK+ there.

also also, 77 goes bye bye.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

I like to minbet for information in this spot and then play optimally based on various timing tells/my ability to look into my opponents soul.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

Hard to say, I would expect a push instead of call preflop from hyeran...I check and hope he doesn't shove. There is always a shot at a small bet but I don't see where you're going to be able to fold to a push.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

I c/f

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I c/f whether he has 5K, 10K or 20K...might be a leak but it can't possibly be that big. also I sometimes CR AK+ there.

also also, 77 goes bye bye.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

I'd usually check. It's a really terrible flop and if he does have some lower pair, you'll often win the hand later somehow anyway.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

I c/f both hands.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

Why is everyone giving up here?

A huge part of his range folds to a c-bet, especially on weak-tight UB.

A K never checks here in Nath's spot, so why check? (not really *ever*, but were not c/r here so go for the obv. play)

If raised 95% of the time we are drawing to 4 outs, maybe 7, so I think bet/fold is best. Something like 1750 or so.

If called were usually beat too, so unless a J comes c/f.

I am not a great player, but I think we give up too much just giving up here, especially on UB.

This isn't a cash game where we are trying to play perfect poker, this is a tourney where we are trying to win pots, and this one is very winnable.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everyone giving up here?

A huge part of his range folds to a c-bet, especially on weak-tight UB.

A K never checks here in Nath's spot, so why check? (not really *ever*, but were not c/r here so go for the obv. play)

If raised 95% of the time we are drawing to 4 outs, maybe 7, so I think bet/fold is best. Something like 1750 or so.

If called were usually beat too, so unless a J comes c/f.

I am not a great player, but I think we give up too much just giving up here, especially on UB.

This isn't a cash game where we are trying to play perfect poker, this is a tourney where we are trying to win pots, and this one is very winnable.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]


I think pretty decent chances to win the pot by checking against a random opponent. I think low pairs will often check and then fold to a turn bet, even if we don't improve. Meanwhile hands that are stronger than an underpair here are going to have a difficult time folding this flop.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

c/f is right, woodguy what hands in his PF range are folding this flop besides AQ AJ and 88 which is very little of his range.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
c/f is right, woodguy what hands in his PF range are folding this flop besides AQ AJ and 88 which is very little of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

22-77?

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

All other pocket pairs or lower suited connectors, which is the majority of his range. I find cold calling with dominated hands like KQ/KJ/QJ more rare in the $200+ unless there were a lot of satelitte entries.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
All other pocket pairs or lower suited connectors, which is the majority of his range. I find cold calling with dominated hands like KQ/KJ/QJ more rare in the $200+ unless there were a lot of satelitte entries.

[/ QUOTE ]

A dude calls for almost 20% of his stack preflop and you're assuming that small pairs and suited connectors are a MAJORITY of his range?

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

Pre-flop:

Tony Pisser raises to 925. hyeran kim folds.
rockets_Ifold folds. PecosJeana folds. blury222
folds. JohnnyBax goes all-in for 7260. Maria Nuccia
folds. G S X R folds. RagnarPirate folds.
Ulty_Dude folds. Tony Pisser calls.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

JohnnyBax shows Ah Ks.
Tony Pisser shows 7d 7h.


Flop (board: 8h Qd Td):

(no action in this round)


Turn (board: 8h Qd Td As):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 8h Qd Td As 7c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

JohnnyBax has Ah Ks Qd Td As: a pair of aces.
Tony Pisser has 7d 7h Qd As 7c: three sevens.


Hand #42568696-163 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Tony Pisser wins 15220 with three sevens.



I was surprised to see 77.

Bax

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
A dude calls for almost 20% of his stack preflop and you're assuming that small pairs and suited connectors are a MAJORITY of his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pairs QQ and smaller are the majority of his range. Throw in a couple of connectors too, but not that many.

Is dude calling off 20% of his stack with KQ or KJ?

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop:

Tony Pisser raises to 925. hyeran kim folds.
rockets_Ifold folds. PecosJeana folds. blury222
folds. JohnnyBax goes all-in for 7260. Maria Nuccia
folds. G S X R folds. RagnarPirate folds.
Ulty_Dude folds. Tony Pisser calls.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

JohnnyBax shows Ah Ks.
Tony Pisser shows 7d 7h.


Flop (board: 8h Qd Td):

(no action in this round)


Turn (board: 8h Qd Td As):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 8h Qd Td As 7c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

JohnnyBax has Ah Ks Qd Td As: a pair of aces.
Tony Pisser has 7d 7h Qd As 7c: three sevens.


Hand #42568696-163 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Tony Pisser wins 15220 with three sevens.



I was surprised to see 77.

Bax

[/ QUOTE ]

The point is that I'm not surprised to see AK.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop:

Tony Pisser raises to 925. hyeran kim folds.
rockets_Ifold folds. PecosJeana folds. blury222
folds. JohnnyBax goes all-in for 7260. Maria Nuccia
folds. G S X R folds. RagnarPirate folds.
Ulty_Dude folds. Tony Pisser calls.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

JohnnyBax shows Ah Ks.
Tony Pisser shows 7d 7h.


Flop (board: 8h Qd Td):

(no action in this round)


Turn (board: 8h Qd Td As):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 8h Qd Td As 7c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

JohnnyBax has Ah Ks Qd Td As: a pair of aces.
Tony Pisser has 7d 7h Qd As 7c: three sevens.


Hand #42568696-163 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
Tony Pisser wins 15220 with three sevens.



I was surprised to see a pair, much less two cards resembling a hand, or even a Jack maybe even suited cards but 77 how do i hit the top of your range?

Bax

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

What do we think our equity is in the OP's hand if we check against an unknown opponent and they have 22-77 or some other hand that almost surely wouldn't call a flop bet. Or more specifically, how much less often will we win the pot than if we had bet the flop. Assume we win 100% against that range if we bet the flop, do we now win 50%? 70%? They surely won't bluff every time (I think they are more likely not to bluff) and we can improve when they check the flop or take the pot away later.


Anyway I'm curious what people think will happen when we check against non-calling hands.

Re: AQ on coordinated flop, UB $215
 

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway I'm curious what people think will happen when we check against non-calling hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either they bet or they don't, with don't being the larger part of the range, but when they bet its a disaster. There are not a lot of chips left on the flop you have one bet to take it and the flop is usually the best spot.