NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($49.25)
UTG ($9.25)
UTG+1 ($49.25)
MP1 ($9.50)
Hero ($51.10)
MP3 ($55.10)
CO ($39.20)
Button ($103.20)
SB ($15.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, MP3 calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $3.50, MP1 calls $2.50.

Flop: ($16.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $5.5 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $51.1</font>, BB calls $45.25 (All-In), Hero calls $27.10 (All-In).

Turn: ($165.20) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: ($165.20) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $165.20

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has 9s 9c (three of a kind, nines).
MP1 has Qc Kc (straight, ace high).
Hero has Jc Js (three of a kind, jacks).
MP3 has Qd Qs (straight, queen high).
Outcome: MP3 wins $126.94. MP1 wins $38.25. </font>

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

There is absolutely no way you fold this flop. You've just gotta do a better job filling up on the river.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

There's nothing you can do here. You played it fine. No way can you fold for $27 more when pot is ~$135. You have proper odds for filling up.

Nice hand. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is absolutely no way you fold this flop. You've just gotta do a better job filling up on the river.

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Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

Gotta go AI here. BB OTOH, probably should fold after the reraise.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

raise more pre, 4.50 at least. mabey 5 or 6
gotta lose it all with that flop.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

More results oriented posts/thinking imo. I'm sorry you lost w/ a set.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

heck no.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

BB and MP3 are obviously both awful.
Hero has gotta go AI here.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

Maybe it is a fold with this action. We are getting about 1:5 which means you should have about 8 outs. I can't find them, can you? Moreover the action means more people will have some of the outs you probably need. I mean MP1 goes allin, then you raise which means that you say i can beat an overpair or toppair I have at least two pair (maybe more in this protected pot), Then MP3 comes over the top saying I can beat two pair (set or straight) and then the BB says well i can beat a set, so he has to have a big set like JJ or a straight more leaning towards a straight. So if you had folded in this spot i think that wouldn't be bad either, it's a marginal situation. If we look at the results these 2 guys with QQ and 99 played it awfully with the information they got, but yeah we can't assume that they are so bad can we?

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

There are 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn, so about 34pc to hit a boat or quads.

Just remember as a rule a flopped set has a third of a chance to hit a boat+ by the end.

Also your reasoning really didn't properly take into account draws, undersets etc, so... this is clearly a hand that is +EV to all-in on on the flop.


Think of it this way: given the bets and action and the hand ranges that others could have given their betting to that point, playing this hand a million times over and doing the AI each time will make you money.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

Okey you are right Carter I have to start better reading and thinking before I go on writing [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. He has to win this 1 out of 6 times, so he needs to get there at least 16,5% of the time. Therefore he needs 4 clean outs, he has them allright. I hope we though agree on the fact that doesn't has as much outs you say he has, because of the action. On average I think about 7 total. I mean other persons could have sets, two pair toppair al that sort of things.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

huh? you're suggesting one has the straight, and the other takes some of your outs?

That's scared thinking. even so, worst case means you lose 2 outs a round, so 13 outs in all...26pc to hit something better.

are we disagreeing on the AI still?

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

No definitely not on the all-in, I made a fault by assuming there was only one street to go. And I also agree with your 26% to the river in the Worst Case Scenario, so it is an easy call, as said you only need about 16,5% equity.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gotta go AI here. BB OTOH, probably should fold after the reraise.

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Can anyone really fold a set at this level? I'd have a very hard time to do so.

Re: NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it is a fold with this action. We are getting about 1:5 which means you should have about 8 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
We're getting two cards for this price, so we only need only 5 outs to make that call. We have may more than that. Even if we knew for sure someone else had a set on the flop (not unlikely, given the action), we have 4 outs on the flop and 7 on the turn, giving us more than enough equity to make the call.

[ QUOTE ]
BB says well i can beat a set, so he has to have a big set like JJ or a straight more leaning towards a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's pretty unlikey that BB has JJ, and if he has a straight that's pretty cool, too, since we already suspect straights form other people. Straights don't take away our outs.

[ QUOTE ]
So if you had folded in this spot i think that wouldn't be bad either, it's a marginal situation. If we look at the results these 2 guys with QQ and 99 played it awfully with the information they got, but yeah we can't assume that they are so bad can we?

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Well, this is NL50. "I have teh overpair and an OESD! I go all-in!" I'd fold 99 here, but I'd have a hard time doing so.